GUATEMALA: THE ELECTION'S WARNING SIGNAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00353R000100040013-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: April 30, 1974
• Content Type: IM

Approved For Release 2004/08/16 : CIA-RDP85T00353R000100040013-8
Secret
Intelligence Memorandum
Guatemala: The Election's Warning Signal
Secret
April 30, 1974
No. 0953/74
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Guatemala: The Election's Warning Signal
Summary
April 30, 1974
Nearly two months after the election, the government of President Carlos
Arana shows no signs of allowing "defeat" at the polls to stop it from inaugurating
its own candidate, General Kjell Laugerud, as president on July 1. Most observers
but not the one that matters in Guatemala-the government-credit left-of-center
opposition candidate General Efrain Rios Montt with winning nearly half the votes
on March 3. The official count, which Congress perfunctorily approved one week
after the election, gave Laugerud nearly 45 percent of the vote and Rios not quite
34 percent.
Up to now, the government has faced only sporadic and minor resistance to the
election fraud and to its muzzling of the left, but it will probably have to contend
for some time with resentment from those who feel they were cheated. The electoral
process, at best perhaps only a thin veneer of democracy over a repressive govern-
ment, has been further discredited.
The legitimate left-of-center opposition, though it had no solid assurances it
would have been in charge under a Rios government, has been deprived of any
chance to exert significant influence. The moderates among this force may merely
grumble and seek to find security in jobs with the Laugerud administration, but the
more extreme critics may resort to violence to express their dissatisfaction.
The country's leftist terrorists, though battered by severe government counter-
insurgency actions over the past decade and beset with internal disunity, might again
consider the use of violence to undermine the government. The terrorists, however,
are well aware of the power of the right wing and its propensity to use violence to
put down violence. If they choose to resume their fight against the well-established
rightist forces, they are likely to bring on even more government repression. The
danger is that the more hot headed among them may feel that trying to work with
the left to achieve their goals is now impossible. They may welcome increased
repression by the government, hoping that this will heighten the possibilities for a
successful revolutionary movement in the future.
25X1 Comments and queries on the s of this publication are welcome. They may be addressed to
SECRET
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Just as important to the country's future political peace and harmony is the
government's reaction to any challenge from the left. Every Guatemalan government
over the past half century has to one degree or another used extra-legal violence
against its political enemies, real or imagined. The society has become inured to the
violence on both sides, but should the extremists turn to terror and the Laugerud
government respond with counter-terror, political polarization could reach the
danger point.
SECRET
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