AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 14, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
Directorate of
Intelligence
Afghanistan Situation Report
14 February 1984
up Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
Vo VrUIU
A Soviet-Afghan multibattalion operation northwest of Kabul has
resulted in heavy Soviet casualties and a flight of the populace
from the Shomali area.
SOVIET EQUIPMENT REPAIR PROBLEMS
AFGHANISTAN IN JANUARY
Soviet and Afghan military initiatives met stiff resistance
throughout Afghanistan in January, although military operations
improved control in the southeast.
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern and South
Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the publication should be directed to
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
TOP SECRET
v
_~ vy Kyzyl-Kiya f5_
E u cq 1 O N
akhrisebIz
Mashhad
36
~KHORASAN
60 ' Urgench
\?v
TURKMS.S.R.
Mary -
}B~ayram-Ali
BAL HESTA
V IS TAN
Herb
t
H A
Nok Kundi
Chardzhtu
Bukhara - j0
eak\
'Qal'eh?yd
_:.Now I
Har, y'C
UZBEK S.S.R.
N.-- Navoi
Kattakurgait -
Sam
Gaurdak
ierin
Kowy
KAZAK% S.S.R.
~Sheberghan 'et}ezill
harl1'
JOWZJAN+ BALKH g r 4
a
--4.y-. _~._ -. _ mangan
an ~SAMANG Nr
FARYAB I? B
Dangara Quo a
x
Vkulya
Z\ 0T3lo i n Eshka
o du BADAKH
TAKHAR
Baghla
FED
ADM:N
TRIBAL f.
AREAS
k~ITan
'Khost
PAKIST4 N
72 rl
fa`zabad
?Andiiha
kanf
lam / s ? sa
Jala -bad
NANGARHARA
rachinar Kny
r f.
riA hat
nn y.
Khorog
law law ind.
C, cam '
Sargodh
NJAB Ium
CJfr ((f
Afghanistan
International boundary
-?- Internal administrative boundary
Tt National capital
O Internal administrative capital
Railroad
Road
0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
'1
0 50 100 150 200 Miles
TAJIK SSR.
76
N;y^-
'Naryn
CHU A
Chitral
NORTH-WEST.
FRONTIEt3'
Beg114 are ~} J ~ Srinagar
as ^rsis~tenasa I 1 A
JAMMII Mp
III
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
A Soviet-Afghan multibattalion sweep operation near Kabul was
continuing as of 7 February
25X1
The objective is to clear areas adjacent tote Kabul -to- han ar
road, and resistance has continued to be heavy.
25X1
saw two truckloads of Soviet corpses being unloaded at
the Soviet hospital in Kabul on 5 February. US Embassy reports
indicate that the number of Soviet dead in the operation may
reach 100.
In addition to the heavy casualties among the Soviets, the
fighting apparently has resulted in depopulation of the area, at
least temporarily. Istalef, located midway between Kabul and
Charikar, has become a ghost town, according to Embassy sources,
with most of the populace having fled to the capital. Civilian
casualties appear to be lighter than those that resulted from a
similar operation in the area in November 1983.
Inadequate maintenance has been a continuing source of
frustration for the Soviet and Afghan military, and the situation
is unlikely to improve in the near term. The harsh climate and
terrain of Afghanistan contribute to many of the difficulties,
particularly in high-technology aircraft. The Soviets have not
established large maintenance facilities in the country and
25X1
25X1
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX 25X1
SOVA M 84-10022CX
1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
continue to rely on bases in the USSR for overhauls and major
repairs of equipment.
Afghan resistance
leaders were "very disappointed" over the lack of interest shown
in Afghanistan at the meeting of the Islamic Conference
Organization in Casablanca.
-- The Afghan regime plans to stage an "Islamic Meeting" in Kabul
14-16 March, according to US Embassy reports. The conference is
an apparent attempt to gain a measure of international
recognition for the regime.
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
2
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
iur steno
25X1
Soviet and Afghan military initiatives met stiff resistance
throughout Afghanistan in January, although military operations brought
improved control in the southeast.
Soviet Views, Plans
Soviet and Afghan regime advantages in firepower
were being eroded by improvements in insurgent capabilities,
there were 150,000 insurgents and infiltration from
Pakistan and Iran is increasing their ranks by 30,000 to 40,000 each
year. The Afghan Army, meanwhile, is plagued b desertions and the
Afghan art remains bads divided.
no en tote ig ting was
in sight, that Soviet troop morale was poor and getting worse, and that
10,000 to 12,000 Soviet soldiers had been killed in Afghanistan--about
double our estimate.
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
TUP SEUKET
Lack of snow in the area has permitted insurgents in the region to
remain highly active this winter, but the good weather has also
permitted heavy bombings by Afghan and Soviet aircraft. In early
January, insurgents were active in attacking convoys and regime
garrisons throughout the Shomali area northwest of Kabul and at the
mouth of the Lowgar Valley south of the capital, according to US Embassy
sources. Soviet and Afghan sweeps and heavy aerial bombardment were met
with stiff resistance. Civilian casualties, according to the sources,
have been high, while Soviet casualties were reportedly significant and
insurgent casualties fairly light. In the northern Shomali, fighting
continued throughout January, according to US Embassy sources. Although
the Soviets have controlled the flow of traffic through the Salang Pass,
insurgents from the Panjsher have been able to hijack trucks at will.
The heavy reprisals against civilians in areas of strong insurgent
activity were particularly notable in January, especially in the Shomali
region and Ghazni. Such reprisals could result in depopulation of
strategic areas and a consequent reduction of support for the
resistance. To date, however, similar reprisals--in the Shomali, ? the
Lowgar Valley, Ghazni, Qandahar, and Herat--have only temporarily
diminished the level of insurgent activity.
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
25X1
25X1
5
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
iur aci.nc i
The resistance remained strong in southern and western Afghanistan
throughout January. According to US Embassy sources, Soviet armor and
troops have concentrated near Qandahar airport, but Soviet action has
been limited primarily to artillery and aerial bombardment of the city's
outskirts and surrounding villages. At the end of the month, insurgents
continued to control all of Qandahar City except for a small area of
regime buildings in the center. Some regime outposts around the city
were destroyed after firing on the insurgents, though others reportedly
maintained cordial relations with the guerrillas. Insurgent attacks on
convoys from Herat and Kabul continue to be common.
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
25X1
25X1
6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
We believe Soviet efforts in the coming weeks will continue to be
directed primarily at limiting and deterring an upsurge in guerrilla
activity this spring. Soviet and regime forces will probably continue
to concentrate on the southeastern provinces to stem insurgent
infiltration, and further cross-border incidents may occur. Pressure
will also continue in northwestern Kabol Province to maintain security
around the capital and to protect convoy movements. The activities of
the Panjsher insurgents will remain under close scrutiny for the same
reasons. Finally, the deterioration of security in Herat and Qandahar
may prompt a series of large-scale operations in those areas. The
insurgents, however, are likely to remain resilient and may well manage
a large increase in their activity this s rin
14 February 1984
NESA M 84-10071CX
SOVA M 84-10022CX
25X1
25X1
7
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3
Top Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300600001-3