(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 3, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 1, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
LEBANON/SYRIA
Middle East Situation Report #27
(as of 1100 EST, 01 February 1984)
Lebanese Army preparations for an offensive are widely
known.
25X1
25X1
25X1
NESA M#84-10054CX
Copt/ /0 of 25
anitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
An Amal representative warned US Embassy officials yesterday
of a full-scale Shia uprising in Beirut should the Lebanese Army
attempt to cut off the southern suburbs by attacking the Alayh
ridgeline. The Shia spokesman asked that the United States to
dissuade President Gemayel from undertaking the military
offensive.
-- Amal leaders apparently interpret the expected military
action as a clear indication of Gemayel's determination
to ignore Shia demands for reform and split the Shia from
the Druze.
-- Amal chief Nabih Barri, as in the fighting last
September, wants to avoid a major confrontation, but
initiation of the planned government attack would make it
more difficult for him to restrain his militiamen.
IRAN-IRAQ WAR
Baghdad claims to have sunk eight merchant ships and downed
one Iranian fighter aircraft during airstrikes yesterday and
today near Bandar-e Khomeini at the northern end of the Gulf.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
The US Interests Section in Baghdad reports that the Iraqis
are bracing for an Iranian offensive expected this month in the
central or southern sectors of the front. The Interests Section 25X1
also reports that the Iraqis are disappointed that Japan won't
help repair their offshore oil export terminals and mediate 25X1
guarantees by Iran not to interfere. Baghdad, however, is very
pleased by US a to discourage further arms sales by Western
allies to Iran.
we do believe Iran
is preparing a mayor attack. We a so believe Iraq will 25X1
make a major effort to hit Iranian oil exports when the
Iranian attack takes place. 25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9
SUBJECT: Middle East Situation Report #27
(As of 1100 EST, 01 Feb 84)
NESA M#84-10054C
DISTRIBUTION:
Cy 1 - DCI
Cy 2 - DDCI
Cy 3 - DCI/SA/IA
Cy 4 - DDI
Cy 5 - DDO
Cy 6 - DDO
Cy 7 - DDO
Cy 8 - C/PES
Cy 9 - NIO/NESA
Cy 10,11,12,13 - CPAS/IMD/CB
Cy 14
Cy 15
Cy 16
Cy 17
Cy 18,19
Cy 20
Cy 21,22
Cy 23
Cy 24,25
DDI/NESA/AI&PG,
- CPAS/PDB (NID)
- CPAS/PDB-WATCH OFFICE
- OGI/IIC/TAB
- D/NESA
- NESA/PPS
- NESA/AI
- NESA/AI/L
- NESA/PG
- NESA/PG/I
1Feb84)
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300460001-9