AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 3, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8
Directorate of 9FOV See, et
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Afghanistan Situation Report
3 January 1984
-Top Secret
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TOP SECRET
AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
CONTENTS
27 DECEMBER ANNIVERSARY QUIET
Widely expected large-scale insurgent attacks in Kabul to mark
the 27 December anniversary of the Soviet invasion failed to
REFUGEE INFLUX FROM IRAN TO PAKISTAN
Some 15,000 Afghan refugees are reportedly en route from Iran to
Pakistan, and UN officials estimate the total may reach 200,000.
USSR-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS
Increased violations of Pakistani airspace have probably been
related to increased insurgent activity in Afghanistan's border
provinces.
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern and South
Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the publication should be directed to
3 January 1984
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27 DECEMBER ANNIVERSARY QUIET
Large-scale insurgent attacks in Kabul to mark the 27 December
anniversary of the Soviet invasion failed to materialize,
according to US Embassy reports. Strengthened Soviet and regime
security--involving far greater patrolling of main thoroughfares,
increased Soviet troops at main intersections, and increased
guards for Soviet shoppers in the bazaars--kept the capital
relatively quiet.
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REFUGEE INFLUX FROM IRAN TO PAKISTAN
UN refugee officials in Pakistan report a large influx of
Sunni Afghan refugees from Iran to Pakistan is underway.
Unconfirmed reports place 2,000 to 3,000 new refugees in
Baluchistan with 10,000 to 15,000 enroute. UN officials estimate
the total may reach 150,000-200,000. US Embassy sources in
Islamabad speculate Tehran may be expelling refugees unwilling to
join the Iranian Army or the Afghan resistance.
The movement of refugees probably is the result of increasing
tension between the Iranian populace and Afghan refugees and of
the Iranian Government's efforts to move Afghan refugees into
camps. Islamabad is not likely to resist the new influx. The
new refugees are not linguistically or tribally affiliated to the
inhabitants of Baluchistan. Their presence could increase
tension in that province but is unlikely to seriously affect
Pakistan's stability.
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-- The Kabul regime is stepping up its anti-US campaign,
according to the US Embassy. On 25 December, 20,000 "glum and
totally unenthusiastic" demonstrators protested US policy in
Latin America, and a Foreign Ministry press conference protested
US aggression in Afghanistan. On 28 December the party press
referred to expulsions of US officials earlier this year on
charges of espionage.
-- Younus Khalis has formally broken with the Afghan
fundamentalist resistance alliance.
the split stems from Khalis' concern that funds were not
properly accounted for and that alliance members were doing
nothing to stop fighting among insurgent groups inside
Afghanistan.
-- Moderate resistance leaders Gailani, Mojaddedi, and Nabi have
accepted final documents on forming a United Front of
Afghanistan The
documents were prepared by a committee including representatives
of former King Zahir Shah. Fundamentalist leaders Younus Khalis
and Rabbani have shown interest but not yet issued statements of
support.
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USSR -AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS
The surge in Soviet or Afghan overflights of Pakistani territory in
the late summer and early fall probably was related to increased
insurgent pressure in Afghanistan's border provinces (see Box 1).
Analysts disagree on whether some of the violations were sanctioned by
Soviet military commanders to gain tactical intelligence on insurgent
activities in Pakistan, or were accidental or conducted by the Afghan
Air Force without Soviet knowledge or approval.
Major airspace violations such as those of 18 and 19 September are
inconsistent with and harmful to present Soviet policy towards Pakistan
and therefore probably were not deliberate, according to some analysts.
Earlier efforts to pressure Pakistan were counterproductive, and Moscow
in the last two years has eschewed threats and emphasized direct
dialogue with Islamabad, the analysts say. They believe that Moscow
recognizes that the political liabilities of the airspace violations
outweigh the potential military benefits of reconnaissance overflights.
These analysts believe there is no evidence to indicate that Moscow
is adopting a tougher approach towards Islamabad. They believe the
Soviets' recent signing of new economic agreements with Pakistan signals
Moscow's intent to continue its present policy.
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caused by pilot navigation errors.
Airspace violations even as deep as 40 nautical miles could be
inadvertent because of the rugged terrain with few distinguishing
features along much of the border, according to the analysts who believe
they were unintentional.
that most of the Kurram Agency
violations--including those in September--probably were accidental and
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-- Analysts who say the violations were deliberate believe it is
unlikely that the Afghan Air Force would fly deep into Pakistani
airspace against established Soviet policy without Soviet
approval.
Implications
All analysts agree that the number of Soviet or Afghan violations of
Pakistani airspace has decreased since October, as has insurgent
pressure in Paktia Province. We judge that renewed insurgent pressure
in Pakistan's border regions could cause an increase in overflights of
Pakistani territory--whether deliberate or unintentional. New airspace
violations could undercut the present Soviet policy of dialogue with
Sustained airspace violations, whether unintentional or intended only
to gather intelligence against the insurgents, could heighten tensions
with Pakistan and increase the possibility of attacks in Pakistani
territory or a clash between Pakistani and Soviet or Afghan aircraft.
Islamabad could also feel more pressure to come to terms with Soviet
demands on Afghanistan and probably would press for additional US
support, including new arms agreements (see Box 2).
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Our analysis indicates that the surge in airspace
violations probably was connected with the sharp
deterioration in the security situation in Paktia
Province--where Afghan Government forces had been under
severe pressure since June. Most of the violations
occurred in Kurram Agency, in the area around Parachinar,
which is adjacent to Paktia Province and an area of major
Afghan insurgent concentration in Pakistan. Most of the
other airspace violations occurred over the area between
the Khyber Pass and Chitral, which includes several key
passes into Afghanistan.
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(Box 2)
Pakistani Perceptions
The airspace violations occurred at a time when the UN
indirect talks on Afghanistan were stalemated and when Zia
was being severely challenged by domestic opposition in
Sind. Some diplomats in Islamabad believe the airspace
violations were deliberate to take advantage of Zia's
weakened political position, even though previous Soviet
efforts to intimidate Pakistan did not cause Islamabad to
reduce support for the insurgents.
Pakistani reaction to the spate of airspace violations
was mixed, although Islamabad used them to press its case
for modern air defense weapons during the US Defense
Secretary's visit in October.
-- Some Pakistani officials worried that the
violations portend an increase in Soviet pressure on
Pakistan to end its support for the Afghan insurgents and
to come to terms with the Soviet-installed government in
Kabul, according to the US Embassy in Islamabad.
-- Other Pakistani officials saw the violations as
unintentional and not surprising given the Afghan
Government's poor military situation in the border area.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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