AFGHANISTAN: PRELIMINARY 1984 CROP ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED AREAS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001200520001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 18, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
~ 8 OCT 1984
SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Preliminary 1984 Crop Assessment
of Selected Areas
1. The attached memorandum is a preliminary 1984 crop
assessment of three areas in Afghanistan. These regions include
the dry land agriculture in the northern plains region, and the
irrigated areas of the Panjsher Valley and Herat Province, the
sites of recent heavy military activity.
2. A second, more comprehensive report on the 1984 Afghan
grain crop will be forthcoming. The second report will also
address food distribution.
3. This report is based on analysis of satellite ima er
and meteorological data. It was produced by 25X1
the Agricultural Assessments Branch, Strategic 25X1
Resources Division, Office of Global Issues. 25X1
4. Comments-and questions are welcome and may be
addressed to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch, OGI
Attachment:
Afghanistan: Preliminary 1984
Crop Assessment of Selected Areas
GI M 84-10179, October 1984
NGA REVIEW COMPLETED
ty Director for Intelligence
Robert M:~,~ates
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SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Preliminary 1984 Crop Assessment of
Selected Areas
OGI/SRD/AAB
(12 October 1984)
Distribution:
1 - Mr. Frank McNeil, State
1 - Mr. Jonathan Olsson, State
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - ED/DDCI
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - C/OGI/SRD
5 - C/OGI/SRD/AAB
1 - C/OGI/EXS/RG
1 - C/OGI/EXS/PG
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, ?. C.20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Afghanistan: Preliminary 1984 Crop
Assessment of Selected Areas
A preliminary assessment of three crop areas in Afghanistan
(the northern plains, the Panjsher Valley, and Herat Province)
indicates that this year's grain crop has suffered damage from
adverse weather and that military operations have not had a
s ign if icant effect on product ion except in the Panjsher Val ley.
Based on analysis of satellite. imagery and meteorological data,
We estimate that drough t conditions in the northern plains--
Afghanistan's principal dry land farming region--caused a 30
percent downturn in grain production there. Fighting in the---
Panjsher Valley--which has already experienced a major population
exodus--has either destroyed or led to the abandonment of about
75 percent of the grainfields in that region. Grain output in
Herat was virtually unaffected by the heavy military activity,
and is estimated to be about the same as in 1983. Together,
these three areas account for roughly a quarter of the annual
grain harvest.
Th i s memorandum wa s prepared by
Agricultural Assessment Branch, Strategic Resources Division,
Office of Global Issues. Comments may be directed to
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
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Afghanistan: Preliminary 1984, Crop
Assessment of Selected Areas
Background
Afghanistan contains approximately 8 million hectares of
arable land, less than half of which is cultivated due to limited
supplies of water. Some 3.3 million hectares of the arable land
are irrigated, but because of fallowing practices, only about
three-fourths of this area is cropped each year. Irrigated land
produces approximately 85 percent of the country's food and
industrial crops. Dry land crops occupy about 900,000 hectares
and are concentrated mainly in the foothills of the northern
plains region.
Grain crops occupy nearly 90 percent of the total cropped
area, including nearly all the dry land farms. Wheat, mostly
winter wheat, takes up 60 percent of the area sowln to grain.
Yields are low, averaging only about 16 centners per hectare on
irrigated land and about five to six centners on dry land. By
comparison, Soviet farmers in neighboring Central Asian Republics
obtained an average of 24 centners per hectare of winter wheat on
irrigated land and 10 centners on non-irrigated land during the
1976-80 period. Irrigated crops depend primarily on river flow
from the annual snow melt for moisture supplies while dry land
farming depends on the amount of precipitation that falls during
the critical February through April period. Irrigated crops tend
to produce stable yields as long as there is sufficient snowfall
to maintain irrigation supplies.
Historically, most serious food shortages have resulted from
drought-induced crop shortfalls in the dry land agricultural
regions. Drought not only reduces grain production drastically,
but also desiccates the grazing pastures used by the nomadic
herdsmen who make up approximately 10 percent of the total
population. When this occurs the farmers and herdsmen face
possible starvation because they typically reside in remote
regions with poor transportation and food distribution systems.
Indeed, previous food aid has usually gone to the cities first
even though the major need was in the remote countryside areas.
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1984 Weather Patterns
Topography and climate impose severe limitations on
agriculture. The climate is arid continental, characterized by 25X1
hot, dry summers and cold winters. All precipitation occurs from
November through April. Available meteorological data for the 25X1
1 A centner equals 0.1 metric tons.
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current crop season--although generally sparse and incomplete--
indicates that there was sufficient snowfall last winter in
Afghanistan to ensure adequate irrigation supplies. In the
northern plains region, however--where virtually all of the non-
irrigated crops are grown--rainfall during the critical February
- April period was less than 500 of normal. Indeed, rain
occurred only on 17 days compared to the average of 35 days.~~ 25X1
Crop Assessment of Selected Areas
Northern Plains. Analysis of satellite imagery taken during
the June - July harvest period revealed major drought damage to
most of the dry land crops here. Compared with 1983, we estimate
that grain yields in the western portion of the region--in the
vicinity of Meymaneh--fell by nearly two-thirds, while those in
the east--near Qonduz and Taloqan--were reduced by about one-
third. In the central portion of the region--south of Mazar-e
Sharif--yields are likely to be similar to last year. As a
result, we estimate overall dry land grain yields this year to be
nearly 30 percent smaller than the slightly above average yields
estimated for 1983. A drop of this magnitude would pose a threat
of serious food shortages in the hardest hit areas.
Our assessment relies solely on an imagery-based comparison
of the number of post-harvest straw shocks in dryland grainfields
in 1984 and 1983. Because of the direct relationship between the
amount of grain harvested and the straw left in fields, this
metholology provides a reliable indication of relative
differences in grain yields from one year to the next.2 A total
of five areas of dry land farming were compared (see table). For
each area and year, the number of shocks were counted within
several harvested fields, and adjustments were then made for
differences in the scale of the imagery.
Panjsher Valley. Satellite imagery taken from May through
September 1984 shows that Soviet and Afghan military operations
caused the destruction or abandonment of about 75 percent of the
grainfields in the valley. Such losses will have little impact
on total Afghan grain output this year because the valley is only
a minor grain producing region. Even so, they almost certainly
will be devastating to the people that remain in the valley.
Since 1979, more than half of the population has fled the area
because of repeated Soviet attacks, according to several reliable
sources.
Some two-thirds of the damage is estimated to be a direct
result of the fighting in the valley. What appeared to be
2 In the past, State Department personnel have used a similar
method to estimate Afghanistan's grain yields while travelling on
the ground.
3
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deliberate burning of grainfields--both before and after harvest-
-was observed throughout the area. Considerable damage was also
caused by armored vehicle trackage, construction of military
bivouac areas, bomb blasts, and artillery shelling. The heavy
military activity also lead to sizeable abandonment as many
villagers appeared to have fled the valley. Post-harvest grain
shocks that were observed on early August imagery had not yet 25X1
been removed by September. Normally, shocks are removed within a
few days after harvest in order to prevent yield reductions.
Aerat Province. Imagery analysis of straw shocks in Herat
indicates little, if any, change in grain production between 1983
and 1984. A reduction in the amount of irrigation water
available from the Harirud River probably was offset by a slight
expansion in the area sown to grain this year. Despite heavy
military activity in the province, there was no evidence of
deliberate crop burning or destruction of irrigation systems.
Damage caused by armored vehicle tracks, bomb craters, and
artillery shells is estimated at less than one percent of the
crop areas observed.
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Afghanistan: Grain Shock Analysis for Five Areas
of Dry Land Farming in the Northern
Plains Region, 1984 and 1983
Map Location s Change from 1983
1.
Meymaneh
35-55N
064-50E
-64
2.
Sar-e Pol
36-15N
066-15E
-lg
3.
Boyni Qara
36-15N
066-50E
+ 4
4.
Qonduz
36-40N
068-50E
-32
5.
Taloqan
36-45N
069-30E
-31
Ave
r
age
-28
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~M~ry
8ukhm
< Kotukurpm
Sim
r.na~
NIMRUZ
r` _ o`
Boundery~P fe~Wtbs ~n,I d
PANJSHER VALLEY
'Ki JeIA iA ,~ ' r~,eaai ~ ~ ~ r
~~.
Serpodh
Afghanistan
International boundary
-?- Internal administrative boundary
* National capital
o Intemal administretive capital
Railroad
Road
~~DRY LAND CROPS
0 60 100 160 200 Kllometera
0 50 100 150 200 Mlles
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