SOVIET CROP CONDITIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001200250001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 29, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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2 9 JUN 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Soviet Crop Conditions
1. The attached memorandum is the third in a series of
assessments analyzing crop conditions in the Soviet Union.
Additional memoranda will be issued periodically during the remainder of the crop season, especially if crop prospects change,
markedly.
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This as
sessment wa
s produced
by
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t he
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Agricultural Ass
essments B
r
F
anch, Strat
- I
egic Resou
rces Division
,
Office of Global Issues.
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3. Comments and quest
ions are we
lcome and
may be addres
sed
to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch,
Attachment:
USSR: Grain Crop Conditions Stabilize
GI M 84-10119, June 1984
G ~ r1 #~~io~ig
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SUBJECT: Soviet Crop Conditions
OGI/SRD/AAB,
(29
June 84)
Distribution:
1
White House Situation Room
1 - Ken Froot, A
1 - David Wigg, CEA
1 - Geza Feketekuty, US Spec
ial Trad
e
Representative
1 - Ambassador Jack Matlock,
NSC
1 - John Lenczowski, NSC
1 - Elmer Klumpp, Agricultur
e
1 - David Schoonover, Agricu
lture
1 - Keith Severin, Agricultu
re
1 - Terry Barr, Agriculture
1 - Charles Hanrahan, Agricu
lture
1 - Anton Malish, Agricultur
e
1 - Byron Jackson, Commerce
1 - Andrew Marshall, Defense
1 - Alexander Vershbow, Stat
e
1 - Kenneth Yalowitz, State
1 - John Danylyk, State
1 - Douglas Mulholland, Trea
sury
1 - 1Lt. Larry Waite, HQ/AWS
/SYJ
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Assistant
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - DD/SOVA
- 1 - SOVA/SEA
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NIO/Econ
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
_1 - C/ECD/CM
1 - C/SRD
5 - C/SRD/AAB
1 - OGI/EXS/PG/C1
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
2 9 JUN '194
USSR: Grain Crop Conditions Stabilize
Summary
Timely, widespread rains during the past several weeks have
broken the severe drought that devastated the grain---crop in and
around the Volga Valley, an area that produces about one-fourth
of the annual Soviet grain harvest. The rains have temporarily
halted further damage to the surviving grain crops, but
additional rainfall is needed to replenish subsoil moisture
reserves. In the remainder of the grain region, crop prospects
are still generally good to excellent. If optimum weather
persists through the end of the crop season, total Soviet grain
production could reach 200 million tons--5 million tons more than
last year's estimated output.
This memorandum was prepared by
the Agricultural
Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division Office of
Global Issues. Comments may be directed to Chief,
Strategic Resources Division,
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GI M 84-10119 25X1
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USSR: Grain Crop Conditions Stabilize
Crop conditions in the USSR have stabilized over the past
three weeks. The drought that devastated the grain crop in the
Volga Valley and adjacent regions abated on 6 June, and
subsequent weather has been mostly favorable throughout the grain
belt. Barring any future bouts of adverse weather, we believe
that the 1984 Soviet grain crop could still come in as high as
200 million tons. A crop of this size would be above last year's
estimated output of 195 million tons, and the best showing since
the 1978 record of 237 million tons.
Regional Crop and Weather Conditions as of Late June
Volga Valley and Adjacent Regions. Following severe drought
conditions during May in the Volga Valley, western Kazakhstan,
Volga Vyatka, Central Black Earth, western Urals, and northern
North Caucasus. regions, meteorological data show that the high
pressure system responsible for the most damaging weather
dissipated by 6 June. Since then, precipitation has been 60
percent above normal--according to reporting from 12 Soviet
weather stations in the valley--halting further damage-to the
surviving grain crops. The relief, however, came too late for
most crops in Volgograd, Saratov, and parts of Stavropol, Rostov,
Voronezh, and Uralsk oblasts.
Farther north (northern Volga Valley, Volga Vyatka, and
western Urals regions), where damage was less severe and the 25X1
crops were in a less vulnerable stage of development, the rains
were beneficial. Nevertheless, even a moderate recovery there
will require ideal growing conditions for the remainder of the
crop season. As a result,,we expect production of both winter
and spring grains to be well below average throughout the.-
drought area.
Ukraine, Moldavia, and Krasnodar Kray. Growing conditions
during the past several weeks in these areas have remained mostly
favorable. Periodic rainfall maintained soil moisture at
adequate levels during the critical flowering period for both
winter grains (early June) and spring grains (mid-June). Unless
the weather deteriorates markedly during the harvest--just now
1 Unless stated otherwise, the term "average" refers to the
average for the 1976-80 period.
2 Flowering is the stage of crop development when maximum
potential yields are determined.
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undeiiway in t
he southern oblasts--product
ion here s
hould
be ab
ove
average. Ana
lysis of meteorological data
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indicate that
Moldavia and
potential harvest problems currently
the western Ukraine, where excessively
exist
wet
only
field
in
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conditions could delay or perhaps even preclude combinin
operations.
Baltics, Belorussia, Central, and Northwest Regions.
Prospects are good for record or near-record yields here. Except
for the extreme eastern part of the Central region--which was
hurt somewhat by the drought--this area has been virtually
problem-free thus far. Cool, wet weather has predominated since
planting, and moisture reserves are more than adequate to sustain
the crops until harvest--still several weeks away.
Kazakhstan, Siberia, and the Eastern Urals. Early-season
crop prospects are good in the main spring grain regions east of
the Ural mountains. According to Soviet press reports, planting
was completed on time, and sowing plans were overfulfilled in
Kazakhstan--which usually accounts for some 13 percent of total
Soviet grain output. Initial crop development,
is generally good to excellent, and
meteorological data show that soil moisture is still above-
average in most areas following the normal dry down that has
occurred during the past. month. Despite the good start, however,
we cannot yet make-a reliable production estimate. Weather
conditions during July and August--as the crops pass through the
flowering and ripening stages--will play the key role in
determining the final harvest outcome.
Outlook for Total Grain Production
Because of the recent improvement in the weather, we believe
that Moscow can still harvest a grain crop as large as 200
million tons. This assessment presumes excellent growing and
harvesting conditions for the remainder of the crop season.
During the next two to three weeks, such conditions would
include:-
o generally dry weather in the Ukraine, Moldavia, and North
Caucasus as the grain harvesting campaign gets into full
swing;
o continued rainfall throughout the Volga Valley and
surrounding areas. Although damage there has been halted
temporarily, crops remain particularly vulnerable to
moisture and/or heat stress; and,
o the onset of normal summer rains in Kazakhstan. These
rains are necessary to sustain healthy plant development
through the heat of the summer, one of the requisites of
high grain yields.
Should the weather deteriorate markedly, however, Soviet grain
output would fall well below this mark.
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USSR: Regional soil moisture and Grain Crop Conditions
Averagel Grain % Grain Area With Fair to Good Soil Moisture2 Imagery Production
Production First Meter Top Layer3 Assessment Outlook
Million Tons 31 May, 17 June 3] May 17 June Relativ2 to
Ave ramie
Northwest 1.4 100 90
Central 11.3 68 91
Volga-Vyatka 4.8 12 65
Central Black Earth 12.2 5.9 70
Volga (including Bashkir) 27.0 17 34
North Caucasus (Krasnodar) 7.7 89 95
North Caucasus (rest) 10.4 50 55
Urals 12.7 63 56
W. Siberia 17.9 90 80
E. Siberia 7.0 100 100
Ukraine 43.2 87 87
Kazakhstan5 27.5 59 50
Belorussia 6.2 100 100
Baltics 5.1 96 95
Moldavia 3.0 100 100
Other 7.7
USSR 205.1 66 70
100 1.00 good above
76 90 fair to good above
35 95 poor below
82 85 poor to fair below
26 51 very poor below
95 95 good above
78 60 poor to fair below
72 78 fair below
92 100 good above
100 100 good above
96 82 good/excel above
66 65 good above
95 100 good/excel above
98 85 good/excel above
100 100 good above
1 1976-1980 actual averages for USSR, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belorussia, Baltics, Moldavia. Averages for
other regions are estimates.
2 40-100% of plant available soil moisture.
The top or active soil layer is that layer from which most of the moisture exchange (through
evaporation/precipitation) occurs with the atmosphere.
5 Based on optimum weather to harvest.
Soil moisture is usually relatively low at this time of year. Kazakhstan receives most of its
recipitation during June and July.
Includes Central Asia and Transcaucasus Republics, areas with relatively stable production from year to year.
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USSR: Percent Soil Moisture in Active Layer*9 31 May 1984
Kara
Casj,ian
.Sea i
0.
Baku
569452 5.76 (542601)
* The active layer is the depth of soil from which moisture
is avaliable to crop roots.
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USSR: Percent Soil Moisture in Active Layer*, 17 June 1984
l Kara
Barents I Sea
Sea
~f a s ".1 ~~ ':tc ~~ ~d
Caspian
Sea
Baku
569452 5-76(542601)
* The active layer is the depth of soil from which moisture
is available to crop roots.
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