THE SARAJEVO WINTER OLYMPICS: PROSPECTS FOR A TERRORIST INCIDENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001101290001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 1, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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Washington. D. C.20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
THE SARAJEVO WINTER OLYMPICS:
PROSPECTS FOR A TERRORIST INCIDENT
Summary
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or abroad.
Yugoslav leadership has much at stake in hosting a successful
Olympics, free of violence, and security official.s have spent the
past two and a half years working to ensure the safety of those
who will attend the 8-19 February games. The unprecedented
number of foreign visitors may strain Yugoslav security
resources, however, and a terrorist operation by one of,a number
of groups that might be interested in exploiting the games cannot
be ruled out. Further, the fact that Yugoslavia will be the
object of world attention might well spur groups to conduct
operations against Yugoslav installations elsewhere in Yugoslavia
foreign missions.
Should violence occur, we believe that it would probably be
at the hands of one of the various Yugoslav emigre groups--most
likely the Croats--who have successfully attacked Yugoslav
targets in the past. The Yugoslav security services have for
years neutralized much of the
terrorist activity planned both within Yugoslavia and against its
Iranian-sponsored terrorism--probably against US or French
participants at the games--cannot be ruled out.
have piqued Iranian interest in causing an incident.
sentencing of 12 Muslim activists in Sarajevo last summer may
Yugoslavia is concerned that the
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We judge radical Palestinian terrorism to be unlikely
because Israel--otherwise a prime target--will not field a team
at the Winter Games.
This memorandum was prepared by
the Instability and Insurgency Center, Office of
Global Issues. Comments may be directed to the Deputy Chief,
Instability and Insurgency Center
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THE SARAJEVO WINTER OLYMPICS:
PROSPECTS FOR A TERRORIST INCIDENT
Yugoslavia's decision to have Sarajevo host the XIV Olympic
Winter Games followed several years of squabbling over the wisdom
of hosting the Olympics. Some Yugoslavs argued that the project
is a waste of badly needed hard currency, talent, and effort, at
a time when the economically depressed nation might better use
its resources elsewhere. Others, such as the Slovenes,
campaigned to host the games in their republics. The Bosnians,
however, carried the day and have a great deal at stake in making
The whole Yugoslav leadership wants the Winter Olympics to
go well as a sign of national pride and vitality. A successful
Olympics free from a terrorist incident could be the tonic needed
to restore confidence at home and abroad in the regime, .
confidence that has been severely undermined by the leadership's
lackluster performance in tackling the nation's economic and
the games a success.
political shortcomings.
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The Terrorist Threat
The Emigres
Terrorism is not new to the Balkans. Since its inception,
Yugoslavia has had to cope with numerous terrorist threats,
particularly from emigre groups. In combatting the threat posed
by the emigres, the Yugoslav Government has benefited from the
bitter ethnic hatreds and political differences that divide these
groups and prevent them from mounting a united opposition. Even
within groups of the same nationality there are sharp divisions
on goals and tactics. Nevertheless, the strong dedication to "a
cause" has produced a number of successes. Emigres have murdered
Yugoslav diplomats, bombed theaters, bus stations, and trains,
and blown up a Yugoslav airliner. The Yugoslav Minister of
Interior has stated that a number of emigre organizations have
made threats against the Winter Olympics. There are three main
groups of emigres whom Yugoslav officials are monitoring closely-
-the Croats, the Albanians, and the Serbs. 25X1
The Croats. The group most likely to attempt to disrupt the
Olympics would be one of the Croatian extremist organizations:
the Croation National Committee, the Croatian National
Resistance, the Croatian Liberation movement or the Croation
Revolutionary Brotherhood. Croatian emigres have demonstrated a
capability to carry out-terrorist attacks both inside and outside
Yugoslavia. The Croatian extremists are dedicated to the
destruction of the Yugoslav state and the creation of an
independent Croatia. There are between 3,000 and 5,000 Croatian
emigres worldwide--mainly in West Germany--who belong to groups
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advocating violence. These groups are well aware of the
historical significance of Sarajevo, and would like nothing
better than to embarrass the post-Tito regime. In their eyes a
successful terrorist incident would
o Gain publicity for the Croatian cause.
o Avenge the murders of Croatian emigre activists F
o Jeopardize tourism and thereby deal an economic blow to
Yugoslavia's already troubled economy.
o Reinforce their conviction that the future of the
Yugoslav state without Tito is tenuous.
The fact that Bosnia-Hercegovina, the site of the Olympics, is a
region claimed for Croatia by the emigres makes an incident all
the more appealing.
Belgrade has warned of escalating hostile activities by
anti-Yugoslav emigres--apparently concerned that the emigres will
disrupt the games, thereby jeopardizing the upcoming tourist
season in Yugoslavia. The Yugoslavs have met with officials'in
Vienna and no doubt expressed concern that-well-known extremists
from Western Europe and elsewhere may use Austria as a staging
area for operations against Yugoslavia. In addition, Yugoslav
officials apparently believe that anti-Yugoslav Croatian emigres
have at their disposal weapons, explosives, and. other equipment
that could be used to conduct terrorist operations.
Other indications point to a Yugoslav fear of violence at
the hands of Croatian emigres:
o According to a report we received from the FBI in late
January. a Yugoslav intelligence service member based in
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San Francisco stated three Croats in Canada may be
involved in planning terrorist acts against the Winter
Olympics and/or the Los Angeles games.
o In early December the Yugoslav Embassy in Washington
provided the State Department with information on
several individuals resident in the US, which alleges
their involvement in preparation of terrorist acts
during the games.
The Albanians. A second, highly volatile group of emigres
are the ethnic Albanians from the autonomous province of Kosovo
in Serbia. Although they are less numerous and not as well
organized as the Croats, they have both the motive and some
capability to attempt to foment terrorism. They also funnel aid
to Albanians still in Kosovo and could utilize them to carry out
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a terrorist strike.
In post-war Yugoslavia, the Kosovo Albanians were subjected
to harsh discrimination by the Serbs and their national
expression and aspirations were brutally suppressed. Pent-up
frustrations following years of abuse burst into riots in late
1968, and sporadic disturbances have continued since that time.
Officials in Belgrade have pointed an accusing finger at Tirana
and emigre circles in the West. Meddling from Tirana appears to
have been more of propaganda activity,
money and/or arms.
rather than supplying
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The Serbs. We also believe the Serbs are capable of
planning and carrying out a terrorist attack. The majority of
Serb emigres oppose the communists and want to reestablish Serb
dominance in Yugoslavia. However,
the Serbs are not well organized and not as prone to violence as
either the Croats or Albanians, even though there are individual
Serbs willing to use violence against Yugoslavia. If the Serbs
were to be responsible for a terrorist attack it most likely
would be perpetrated by the Serbian Youth Movement for Freedom or
the Serbian Western Guard.
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The Non -Emigre Threat
Other terrorists such as the Armenians or radical pro-
Iranians might seize the opportunity of the Olympics to strike.
Because these groups have no apparent axe to grind with Belgrade,
their targets probably would be foreign nationals at the
Olympics, or possibly diplomatic missions in Belgrade.
The Iranians.
Iranian-sponsored terrorism cannot be ruled out.
Possible targets could include US and French participants.
Iraq--a leading adversary--will not be represented at the
games.
High-level Bosnian officials have told Western diplomats
privately that they are worried Tehran might send a "hit team" to
Sarajevo in reaction to the trial and sentencing of 12 local
Muslim activists in Sarajevo last summer whose arrests reportedly
have touched only the surface of the Muslim movement in Bosnia.
It is possible that the Iranians already have assets inside
Yugoslavia who could assist, or even carry out, a terrorist
attack. Some Yugoslav Muslims have made trips to Iran where,
according to US Embassy reporting, they appear to have been
indoctrinated with Khomeini-style Muslim fundamentalism. Muslim
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agitation has also prompted Belgrade to deport several Iranian
The Armenians. One Armenian terrorist group--the right-wing
Justice Commandos for the Armenian Genocide (JCAG)--murdered the
Turkish Ambassador to Yugoslavia in March 1983. The JCAG and the
Marxist Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia
(ASALA) are seeking revenge for the genocide of Armenians at the
hands of the Turks during World War I and the union of all
Armenians into an independent state. Both groups have
systematically carried out a series of bombings and murders
against Turkish targets since 1975. 25X1
We suspect JCAG--based on its earlier successful attack in
Yugoslavia--is capable of conducting attacks against Turks during
the Olympic games. Armenian nationalist organizations and
individuals are conducting a campaign of increased pressure on
Yugoslavia as the Belgrade trial of two JCAG members accused in
the March assassination continues. We believe, however, it is
unlikely that JCAG will conduct any operations that might
jeopardize the outcome of the trial, due to end shorty. 25X1
ASALA, in our view, lacks a support apparat in Yugoslavia
and its operations have been disrupted by a bitter internal
dispute over the organization's use of indiscriminate violence.
Palestinians. We believe that Palestinian terrorism, although
possible, is unlikely to occur in conjunction with the Winter
Olympics. Belgrade recognizes the PLO and is a strong supporter of
the Palestinian cause. Non-PLO radical Palestinians such as Abu
Nidal's Black June Organization (BJO) or Abu Ibrahim, leader of the
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Iraq-based 15 May Organization, might be willing to attempt a
terrorist attack. The absence of an Israeli team at the Winter Games,
however, removes what would otherwise be a prime target.
Libyans. Libyan-sponsored terrorism also appears unlikely. 25X1
Relations between Belgrade and Tripoli are good, and Libya would want
to avoid embarrassing Yugoslavs or damaging their bilateral
relations. Yugoslavia is engaged in a number of major construction
projects in Libya, and the Yugoslavs train Libyan technicians and
pilots. 25X1
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Yugoslav Preparations
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Yugoslav security has worked diligently for two and a half years
to prevent a terrorist incident at the Olympics.
Nevertheless, the task of guaranteeing the security of the
Olympic spectators and participants is a large and difficult one and
the possibility exists that a terrorist could penetrate the country's
security, or conduct an operation against Yugoslav facilities
elsewhere in Yugoslavia or abroad.
Security plans and preparations for the games have been
centralized under the Sarajevo Organizing Committee for Olympic
Security, headed by Tomislav Juric. The committee has full
responsibility for Olympic accreditation, VIP security and overall
physical security.
Most recently with an eye toward the Olympics, the Yugoslavs
have engaged in a series of high-level consultations with a variety of
Western countries to monitor and neutralize the emigre threat, as well
as to improve security. The West German Government has agreed to
cooperate with Yugoslav security personnel in screening airport
arrivals in Sarajevo and other Yugoslav cities. Earlier, Dolanc told
US officials he was fed,up with the lack of cooperation by the West
Germans in countering anti-Yugoslav efforts--originating from West 25X6
German territory--to threaten the security of the games.
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Recently a team of US security specialists met with Yugoslav
officials to exchange information and to review security plans, no
doubt spurred on by the following considerations:
o Detection of surveillance by Arab individuals--one of whom
possessed as many as five or six passports--of the US Embassy
during late October/early November.
o State reporting that, at least as of early December, no
additional security was planned for the American Center
Library and the Embassy temporary branch office, since the
Yugoslavs had assured that "all sites" would be adequately
covered by the Olympic security net.
o Embassy comment that Juric appears unfamiliar with the US
concept of protective detail coverage, citing similar
problems encountered by the British in discussing a projected
visit by a member of the Royal Family. 25X1
The following excerpt from an article in the major Sarajevo daily
press in October provides interesting insight into the question of
Olympic security:
"We are making use of the experience of others, but the
security of the 14th Olympic Winter Games will have its
unique aspects. We will have well-protected games, but at
the same time these will be the games that, in comparison to
previous ones, will be guarded by the smallest number of
professional and armed personnel, because we. are placing
maximum reliance on a broad system of social self-
protection."
Should a terrorist incident mar the games, particularly at the
hands of Muslim nationalists, the careers of a number of leading
politicans will be undermined. The most prominent is Bosnian
strongman and Olympic Organizing Committee chairman Branko Mikulic,
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who hopes to become the next representative on the federal presidency
from Bosnia-Hercegovina this spring. Despite repeated warning signals
that Khomeini-style Muslim political stirrings were taking place in
Bosnia-Hercegovina, local leaders denied such activity. The arrest in
April 1983 and later sentencing of 12 Bosnian Muslims for antiregime
activity severely embarrassed Mikulic and local leaders. If Muslim
activists disrupt the Games, the political future of these leaders
will be in doubt. 25X1
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XIV Olympic Winter Games At Sarajevo
8-19 February 1984
Attendinn
Andorra
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Bolivia
Canada
Chile
Costa Rica
Cyprus
Czechoslovakia
Denmark
East Germany
Egypt
Finland
France
Great Britain
Greece
Hungary
Netherlands
Iceland
Italy
Japan
Liechtenstein
Mongolia
Monaco
New Zealand
North Korea
Norway
Peoples Republic of China
Poland
Puerto Rico
Romania
San Marino
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
U.S.
U.S.S.R.
West Germany
Yugoslavia
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In Doubt
Iran
Lebanon
Luxembourg
Mexico
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SUBJECT: The Sarajevo Winter Olympics: Prospects for a
Terrorist Incident GI M 84-10029
Internal Distribution:
Original & 1 - D/OGI
1 - DD/OGI
1 - SA/DDCI (7E12)
1 - Executive Director (7E12)
1 - DDI (7E47)
1 - DDI/PES (7G15)
1 - CPAS/ILS (7G50)
1 - NIO/Terrorism (Whipple) (7E47)
1 - NIO/W (7E47)
8 - OGI/PG
1 - C/OGI/IIC
1 - DC/OGI/IIC
1 - C/OGI/IIC/TAB
1 - C/OGI/IIC/PI
1 - OGI/IIC/TAB/DESIST
1 - OGI/IIC/TAB
1 - OGI/IIC/PI
_
1 - D/EURA (6G42)
1 - DD/EURA (6G42)
1 - C/EURA/EE (6G42)
1 - DC/EURA/EE (6G42)
1 - C/EURA/EEB (6G42)
1 - EURA/EEY I(6G42)
1 - C/SE/BB ( D5311)
1 - C/SE/RR (4D0119
1 - C/IAD/CTG (4C20)
1 - OGI/IIC/TAB/Chrono
1 - OGI/IIC/TAB/Typescript File
1 - OGI/IIC/TAB/Reading File
DDI/OGI/IIC/TAB
(3 Feb 84)
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SUBJECT. The Sarajevo Winter Olympics:
Terrorist Incident
External Distribution:
1 - Terry Arnold, M/CT
Room 2238
Department of State
1 - Paul Costolanski, INR/SEE
Room 4754
Department of State
1 - Nicholas Lang, EUR/EE
Room 5217
Department of State
3 - Tom Cadogan, INR/GI
Room 2844
Department of State
1 - John Bedrosian, SY/CC
Room 2435
Department of State
1 - Ken DeGraffenreid, NSC
Room 300, OEB
Prospects for a
GI M 84-10029
Room 2B527, Pentagon
1 - Ted Snediker, Army/CTD/ITAC
Room 2223, Arlington Hall Station
1 - Wayne Gilbert, FBI
Room 5012
Washington, D.C. 20535
1 - Dennis Brosan
Chief, Intelligence Division/Secret Service
Washington, D.C. 20223
1 - Mr. Spears, Headquarters NIS
Threat Assessment Center
Room 328
4311 Suitland Road
Suitland, MD
1 - Ken Hill
Olympic Security Coordinator
White House
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