(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001100850001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 16, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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16 October 1984
S i t r e p
Yugoslavia
Senior Yugoslav financial officials meeting with the
International Coordinating Committee (ICC) of commercial bank
creditors in late September presented their request for a
multiyear rescheduling of bank debt maturing in 1985-88.
The Yugoslavs offered
to repay a portion of the principal falling due during the
rescheduling years, starting at perhaps 10 percent in 1985 and
increasing by 5 to 10 percent in each subsequent year. The
Yugoslavs stated that Belgrade wants a refinancing package
similar to the recent program negotiated by Mexico. They
asserted that Yugoslavia's good economic performance--10 percent
growth of hard currency exports through August and a likely $600-
700 million current account surplus for the year--justifies such
concessions.
The ICC responded that it supports a multiyear pro ram as
EURM84-10212C
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long as Belgrade and the IMF negotiate a standby agreement for
the period under discussion and Yugoslavia's official creditors
provide a comparable multiyear rescheduling.
The ICC appeared confused about the Paris Club position and
requested committee members to contact their respective
governments about the official creditors' view of a multiyear
rescheduling.
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Roman i a
Senior Romanian financial officials have asserted that the
country's strong current account performance shows that Romania
will continue to meet its financial commitments. According to
the Chairman of the Romanian Foreign Trade Bank Eremia, Romania
had a $1.3 billion hard currency trade surplus and a $650 million
current account surplus through July even though imports had
increased by 5 percent.
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Pol and
Although the Poles now appear to be more realistic about the
benefits of IMF membership, they still believe they can get new
credits quickly. Even if processing of Poland's IMF membership
began today, technical problems, including Poland's sizable
overdue debt payments, would probably delay entry until 1986.
Moreover, Warsaw's continued reluctance to impose tough austerity
measures would hamper negotiations for sizable Fund credits.
Poland's failure to obtain large amounts of Western credits over
the next five years will severely retard the growth of imports
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necessary for economic expansion.
A recent Soviet press article,
however,indicates that Moscow remain skeptical about IMF
conditions. Although we believe the Soviets are unlikely to
provide the necessary aid, they probably will continue to object
to further Polish political concessions, but will not block
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