(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001001500001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287R001001500001-6
Memorandum for:
This memorandum was prepared at the
request of the Vice President in the
wake of Trudeau's unexpected resignation
on 29 February 1984.
3 March 1984
Director,
EURA
Office of European Analysis
~u12 M -W-10'03Y
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287R001001500001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
1 March 1984
MEMORANDUM
Trudeau's Retirement
Trudeau's unexpected decision to resign as Liberal Party leader and prime
minister, announced on 29 February, lends an air of uncertainty to the
Canadian political system which will take several months to resolve. His
impending departure from the domestic and international stages after a nearly
twenty-year run raises a number of questions.
1. Why did Trudeau decide to resign? ~ 25X1
As is the case with most decisions by the enigmatic Trudeau, the
motivation for his decision to leave office at this time is unclear. After he
was reelected in 1980, he pledged not to run again but left open when he might
exit. During the early 1980s, through about mid-1983, Trudeau seemed to
become more and more disenchanted with holding. office, suggesting that he
might cut short his stay. Since the Williamsburg Summit, however, his renewed
zest for the political wars had fueled speculation that he would contest one
more election. We believe that Trudeau made his decision only last weekend
and did so more for personal than political reasons. Among the motivating
factors probably were a general weariness with public life, a desire to return
to his home in Montreal and educate his three sons in that city, and a feeling
that he had accomplished those goals that had caused him to enter politics in
1965 -- i.e., establishing Canada as an officially bilingual country and
severing Canada's last colonial ties with Britain by ending London's technical
2. What exactly does Trudeau's announcement mean?
In a letter to the Liberal Party president, Trudeau announced his
intention to retire as party leader as soon as the party selects a replacement
for him. The party president has said publicly that she favors a late June
leadership convention to select Trudeau's replacement. In Canada, the leader
of the majority party automatically becomes prime minister -- if he holds a
seat in Parliament. When Trudeau announced that he was quitting the post of
party chief, he was in effect resigning as prime minister.
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
. IS 25X1
3. Does Trudeau's announcement have any immediate bearing on
his position as prime minister?
Trudeau's decision to resign as party leader does not immediately affect
his status as prime minister. Trudeau probably will remain prime minister at
least until a new leader is selected and perhaps longer. If the Liberal
leadership convention in June selects an individual who does not hold a seat
in Parliament -- for example, the current favorite, John Turner, does not now
hold a seat -- that person would not be able to' become prime minister until he
When a new party leader is chosen in June, we expect Trudeau to resign as
prime minister and allow that individual to assume center stage in the
public's eye. In the case of John Turner, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister
of External Affairs Allan MacEachen would perform the prime minister's duties
in a caretaker role until Turner won a seat. If the leadership convention
selects an individual who already holds a seat, he would be able to become
prime minister immediately upon Trudeau's resignation.
4. What influence does Trudeau's decision have on the timing of the
next general election in Canada?
Under the Canadian constitution, each parliament is elected for a five-
year term but the prime minister can call an election at any point during that
period. The last election was held in February 1980 and the present
Parliament's term does not expire until February 1985. A federal election,
therefore, need not legally be called before then.
Because the leader of the majority party in Parliament automatically
becomes .prime minister, the resignation of one leader and the subsequent
selection of a new leader in no way requires that a general election be
We believe that whoever succeeds Trudeau as the next Liberal leader will
not call an immediate general election but will hold office long enough for
the public to identify him as prime minister. In our opinion, the next
federal election is not likely to be held before this fall.
5. What will Trudeau do in the period until his retirement as party leader
and prime minister?
Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Trudeau's announcement is his
decision to remain on the scene as more or less a lame duck, his powers as
party leader and prime minister still undiminished but the end of his regime
clearly in sight. His resignation as party leader after the Liberal defeat in
the 1979 election stands in distinct contrast to the current scenario. In
1979, Trudeau barely settled into the the opposition leader's chair when he
unexpectedly tendered his resignation and drove off, on the same day, for his
25X1
_2_
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
We believe that Trudeau would not tarry unless he had some definite ideas
about what he hopes to accomplish during his remaining months in office. In
our opinion, there are several things that he may put his energies to in the
coming months. Domestically, he probably will seek to secure the protection
of French language rights in Manitoba. The Conservative opposition there
recently blocked the adoption of an amendment to the provincial constitution
which would have provided such protection.
Trudeau probably will devote most of his activities between now and the
end of June to the field of international relations. While he has said that
his personal involvement in the Canadian peace initiative would taper off now
that he has been to Moscow, Trudeau may now feel free to speak more frequently
in open public forums on such sensitive topics as disarmament, NATO affairs,
If Trudeau pursues this course, we believe that he probably would feel
less constrained in issuing criticisms -- including some directed at US
policies -- or in suggesting controversial ideas than he had been before he
decided to resign. Trudeau probably would characterize his comments as an
individual's views -- possibly "public musings" of the type he delivered at
Davos, Switzerland, in January. He therefore would not be committing his
government or party irrevocably to any specific policies.
Despite his apparent willingness to don the mantle of elder statesman,
Trudeau may still -- given his well-honed skill for acting on the
international stage and drawing a considerable audience in the process -- be
able to garner a significant amount of media attention. In this light, his
decision to remain on the scene through the end of June suggests that he views
the London Economic Summit as his last chance to have any si nificant
influence on ameliorating the state of East-West relations.
6. Who is in line to succeed Trudeau?
Although there are at least seven individuals who appear ready to enter
the race for the Liberal leadership, the following two are, in our judgment,
the favorites at this point.
-- John Turner - This fluently bilingual Toronto lawyer and businessman,
who was a minister in Trudeau's government from 1968 to 1975,
probably is Trudeau's most likely successor at this point. He
resigned as Finance Minister in 1975 because of a disagreement with
Trudeau over federal economic policy. Turner has maintained
widespread contacts within the party and across the country since his
resignation and reportedly has a campaign organization largely in
place. Turner is an economic conservative and would likely lead the
Liberal Party in a direction that would be markedly less
interventionist and nationalist.
-3-
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
25X1
25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
Jean Chretien - Currently Minister of Energy, Chretien has performed
well in a wide variety of cabinet posts. As energy minister, he has
restored a significant measure of peace to the troubled relationship
between Ottawa and the private energy sector that resulted from the
introduction of the National Energy Program (NEP) in 19d0. Popular
throughout the country, the amiable, ambitious Chretien has been
viewed traditionally as a superb subordinate but a bit short in
leadership ability.
The other five contenders -- in descending order of likelihood to win the
leadership -- are:
-- John Roberts - Minister of Employment and Immigration, powerful in
the politically crucial province Ontario, and a harsh critic of
US environmental policy.
-- Allan MacEachen - External Affairs Minister, Deputy Prime
mister, a- a master of parliamentary legerdemain and
obfuscation. He probably is crippled by lingering resentment in
the party over the politically and economically maladroit budget
he introduced as Minister of Finance in 1981.
-- Donald Johnston - Minister of Economic Development, Science, and
Technology and the most economically conservative, and least
nationalistic, Liberal in the present government. Johnston is
respected in party circles but has little popular support outside
his Montreal constituency.
-- Mark MacGuigan - Minister of Justice and a rather colorless
individual whose ambition probably exceeds his ability. 25X1
-- Gerald Regan - Minister of International Trade and probably the
Liberal most well disposed to the United States. At this time,
however, he is th darkest of all the horses in the leadership
race.
All these candidates have been in Trudeau governments and to some extent
have been tarnished in the public eye by their association. Turner, because
he has been out of politics since 1975, probably would be best able to portray
himself as a fresh face, able to instill new vigor in the tired Liberal
Party. Even Turner, however, who has been waiting in the wings since being
defeated by Trudeau in the last Liberal leadership race in 1968, probably
would be unable to give the party enough of a revitalized image.
-4-
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
In our opinion, therefore, the next Liberal leader will be selected
primarily for his ability to limit the degree of the defeat the party now
expects to suffer in the next election. We believe, at this time, that John
Turner best fits that description and probably will be the individual chosen
7. What effect will Trudeau's departure have on the electoral prospects Of
Brian Mulroney and the Progressive Conservative Party? 25X1
The Liberals probably will benefit in the polls from the excitement
surrounding Trudeau's retirement, the increased public interest caused by the
leadership convention, and the highly publicized installation of a new
leader. The gain, however, may be short-lived. Polls consistently have shown
that Canadians are weary of 20 years of nearly unbroken Liberal rule. I 25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287RO01001500001-6
Distribution:
Orig - Vice President Bush
1 - Secretary of State Schultz
1 - Secretary of Defense Weinberger
1 - National Security Adviser Macfarlane
1 - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Vessey
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - OD/EURA
2 - EURA Production Staff
4 - IMC/CB
1 - Branch file
1 - Division file
1 - Author
EURA/WE/BBC (1Mar84)
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/30: CIA-RDP85T00287ROO1001500001-6