BANGLADESH: ERSHAD'S VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000800990001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 7, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelligence Agency
Bangladesh: Ershad's Visit to the United States
qq
The Chief Martial Law Administrator of Bangladesh, Lt.
Gen. Hussain Mohammad Ershad, comes to Washington seeking
to:
-- underscore the good relations that
Bangladesh wants with the United States, a
major aid donor, potential foreign
investor, and possible protector in
Bangladesh's difficult relations with
India.
-- enhance his position domestically by
demonstrating his acceptability to the
United States.
General Ershad, who assumed power in March 1982 in a
bloodless military coup, is trying to move his government
toward civilian rule by becoming Bangladesh's next president
in elections scheduled for March 1985. We believe Ershad
has a good chance of remaining in power at least until
then .
This memorandum was prepared byl I South Asia
Division, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, in
preparation for General Ershad's upcoming visit. Information as
of 3 October 1983 was used in preparation of this paper.
Comments and queries are welcome and should be addressed to
Chief, South Asia Division
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While in the United States, Ershad, in our view, will
look for official US approval of his economic and
governmental reforms. Ershad will appeal indirectly for an
increase in US economic aid and may request additional US
military assistance to Bangladesh but is not likely to press
for modern weapon systems. During his visit, we believe
Ershad will stress his anti-Soviet, pro-Western outlook and
underscore Bangladesh's moderate position among nations of
Ershad, the Man
Ershad has come a long way toward being a viable national
leader since his coup in March 1982, and we believe he is
generally committed to improving the quality of life for
Bangladeshis. The US Ambassador to Dhaka characterizes Ershad as
a moderate and a pragmatist. Cautious, Ershad tends to float
ideas but withdraws them later if reactions are negative. The US
Embassy reports Ershad is learning to handle complex political
issues, but he continues to react haltingly to problems,
sometimes makes rash and emotional decisions, and is ill at ease
when dealing with international topics. While Ershad is a devout
Muslim and uses Islamic symbols for political purposes, he is no
Islamic fundamentalist, according to the US Embassy.
Ershad's Domestic Position
Ershad is striving to stabilize his country's chaotic
politics and institutionalize his position. Effective political
power has rested with the military since Ershad's coup, and
Ershad is the most senior leader, and we judge the least
controversial, among the other potential military contenders for
power. The civilian president is only a figurehead.
Ershad's political survivability remains vulnerable to
dissatisfied elements in the military and, to a lesser extent,
civilian political party and student activists. We believe
Ershad, after national elections in March 1985, probably will
become Bangladesh's next President. We surmise that disunity
within and among the defunct political parties will preclude any
major opposition movement, and a slight improvement in the still
precarious economy will increase his chances of survival. F
Ershad has undertaken bold and positive reforms to tackle
Bangladesh's enormous economic problems caused by a series of
poor crops, previous weak economic management, and a poor climate
for foreign trade, assistance, and investment. Ershad's economic
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str.ategy has emphasized reducing public-sector activity and an
ambitious rural reform plan to attack poverty. The US Embassy
reports the government's divestiture of the key jute and textile
industries has boosted the confidence of Bangladesh
industrialists, and that Bangladesh businessmen have started
serious joint venture ne otiations with US manufacturers of food
products and equipment.
Ershad emphasizes in public statements that a solution to
the problem of an already large and rapidly increasing imbalance
between the country's population and its limited natural
resources is critical to long-term political and economic
stability. In our view, ineffective and lethargic bureaucratic
administration of the population program, lack of education,
deeply ingrained social strictures, and the reluctance of a
traditional Muslim society are the major barriers to a solution
of the staggering population problem.
Bangladesh's Foreign Relations
We believe Bangladesh's primary objectives are to ensure a
continued flow of outside assistance and to maintain satisfactory
relations with India. Ershad tends to overestimate the
importance of Bangladesh to the United States, according to the
US Embassy, and sees the US as a protector and patron in the
sense of an aid donor and in offsetting Indian regional
supremacy.
most Bangladeshis are 25X1
deeply suspicious of India and tend to view problems in relations
with New Delhi as a sign that India is attempting to undermine
their government. According to the US Embassy, Ershad while
distrusting India, recognizes the reality of Indian dominance.
He has, in our view, tried to approach bilateral problems with
moderation--to the point that some Bangladeshis consider him
"soft on India." Probably in an attempt to counter this
perception, Ershad recently has been publicly more critical of
New Delhi. 25x1
The most pressing bilateral problem with India that Ershad
might surface while here is water sharing. Because Bangladesh's
main rivers--the Ganges and Brahmaputra--enter the country
through India, their technical management and control continue to
be a sensitive political issue. President Carter in 1978
expressed a willingness to consider funding studies of water use
in the region, providing the countries involved collectively
requested such assistance. At present, we and US diplomats
believe there is no likelihood of an agreed approach by India,
Bangladesh, and Nepal.
We believe Ershad will seek to present his government as
anti-Soviet to US officials. Relations between Dhaka and Moscow
have deteriorated since the assassination in 1975 of independence
leader Sheikh Mujib.
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we assess the Soviets are trying to exploit the fluid
internal situation in Bangladesh by encouraging the leftist
political parties to increase agitation against the regime of
Ershad. Ultimately, we judge Soviet involvement with Bangladesh
will be tempered by the USSR's more important relationship with
India, which we believe would oppose the creation of a Marxist
Although, as a Muslim country, Bangladesh supports Arab
positions on Middle East issues, the US Embassy notes that
Bangladesh has worked to blunt extreme measures, notably the move
to expel Israel from the UN General Assembly last year. The
Embassy further reports that Bangladesh led the important early
stand by the Islamic world against the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan.
Importance of Bangladesh to the United States
Ultimately, Bangladesh plays a relatively minor role in US
policy, and another government reshuffle or military coup
probably would have little impact on immediate US priorities in
South Asia. Nevertheless, another change in government, in our
view, would counter what little postwar political and economic
gains Bangladesh has made and undermine international confidence
in the continuity of any future Bangladesh government.
A sharp deterioration in Bangladesh's political and economic
situation could affect US concerns in several ways:
-- A political or economic breakdown could
lead to the need for even larger doses of
economic aid.
-- Instability in Bangladesh could foment
serious problems in India--given the
tendency of Bangladeshis to seek refuge in
that country's border states.
-- Instability in Bangladesh could provide an
opportunity for further Soviet meddling in
What Ershad Wants in Washington
Reporting from the US Embassy suggests Ershad comes to
Washington for the positive impact he perceives his meeting with
President Reagan and other high-level US government officials
will have at home. We judge that Ershad is counting on his US
visit to bolster his legitimacy in the eyes of his Bangladesh
constituents, particularly the military. We believe the majority
of the military will view Ershad's visit here favorably and that
he will be able to enhance his stature and survivability over the
next year in the wake of his trip.
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We doubt Ershad will directly ask for an increase in US
economic assistance, but he may appeal indirectly by asking for
increased US economic aid to the group of poorest less developed
countries, which includes Bangladesh. The US Embassy expects
Ershad will speak to US officials about the achievements of
international development assistance in Bangladesh and the need
for its continuation. According to the Embassy, Ershad is
anxious to improve prospects for trade between the United States
and Bangladesh and to encourage US private investment. He is
scheduled to meet with members of the US business community. F-
I
We believe Ershad may use the perceived Indian threat to
seek an expanded military relationship with the United States in
order to build a more credible military force. The Embassy
reports that Ershad would like additional training and foreign
military sales credits. The Bangladeshis could effectively use
only a small amount of new materiel because of inadequate
training, poor maintenance, and command, control, and
communications problems, according to our analysis. According to
US Embassy sources, Bangladesh would be pleased to receive
equipment, such as transport helicopters, that could be used in
civilian activities as well as for national defense.
We do not believe India regards Bangladesh as a military or
political threat. Overcommitment of US military or political
support to Bangladesh, however, would irritate New Delhi, in our
view, and would be detrimental to US relations with India, afar
more strategic South Asian country to overall US interests.
25X1
25X1
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Bangladesh: Some Basic Facts about the Country
-- Bangladesh is the world's eighth most
populous nation and the most densely
populated agricultural country in the
world.
-- Nearly 90 percent of Bangladeshis work in
agriculture, primarily as subsistence
farmers, or agriculture-related jobs.
-- Bangladesh suffers from too many people on
too little land. Some 96.5 million
Bangladeshis live in a country the size of
Wisconsin, and the population will double
by the first decade of the next century.
-- Most of the country is a flat alluvial
plain that floods annually and has been
characterized as old mud, new mud, and
marsh.
-- Most Bangladeshis are Bengali-speaking
Muslims who live in rural villages of a few
hundred to a thousand people.
-- Bangladeshis have a literacy rate of only
23 percent, a yearly per capita income of
$120 and a life expectancy of 48 years.
-- Bangladesh's independence of nearly 12
years was won after a bloody nine-month
civil war between East and West Pakistan in
1971. Since then, three of the country's
leaders have been assassinated and military
coup attempts have been numerous. F]
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. SUBJECT: Ershad's Visit to the United States
External Distribution:
1 - Mr. Robert M. Kimmett, National Security
Council Staff
1 - Mr. Harmon E. Kirby, Director, PAB,
Bureau of Near Eastern and South Asian
Affairs, Department of State
1 - Mr. Ronald Zwart, Near Eastern and South
Asian Affairs, DoD/ISA
1 - Capt. Robert G. Anderson, Far East/South
Asia Division, Plans and Policy
Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff
1 - Mr. Peter Burleigh, Bureau of
Intelligence and Research, Department of
State
1 - Ms. Shirin Tahir-Kheli, Policy Planning
Staff, Department of State
1 - Mr. Jackson McDonald, Desk Officer
(Bangladesh), Department of State
1 - Situation Room, The White House
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SUBJECT: Ershad's Visit to the United States
Internal Distribution:
Orig C/SO/P
1 - DDI
1 - DDI Registry
1 - C/DDO/NE
1 - C/DDO/NE
1 - C/DDO/NEJ
1 - SOYA/CS
1 - VC/NIC
1 - NIC/AG
1 - C/PES
1 - PDB Staff
- CPAS/IMD/CB
1 - CPAS Foreign Liaison Staff
1 - CIA Liaison Officer Treasury
1 - CIA Liaison Officer Commerce
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1 - DD/NESA
2 - NESA/PS
1 - C/NESA/SO
1 - Chrono
DDI/NESA/SO/P 7 Oct 83)
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