AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 26, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
Directorate of Top Sec. e
Intelligence
Afghanistan Situation Report
26 April 1983
Top Seeret
26 April 1983
Cope, 48
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
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 __ ~ i ~i iui ~I~ III I IIEII S 1
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TOP SECRET
AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
MASOOD COMMENTS ON NEGOTIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
A de facto truce between the Soviets and the Panjsher insurgents
developed early this year after talks for a broader agreement in
FIGHTING INCREASING AROUND QANDAHAR CITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Insurgent activities in and around Qandahar City increased in
mid-March after popular support for the resistance grew. =
ANDROPOV DEFENDS AFGHAN POLICY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Andropov has reaffirmed Moscow's policy on Afghanistan in his
first public comments on the situation since his accession to the
post of General Secretary.
IN BRIEF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near East/South Asia
and the Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments on the issues
raised in the publication should be directed to
26 April 1983
NESA M 83-10093CX
SOVA M 83-10078CX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
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Afghanistan
International boundary
--- Internal administrative boundary
* National capital
o Internal administrative capital
Railroad
Road
0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
0 50 100 160 200 Miles
26 April 1983
NESA M 83-10093CX
SOVA M 83-10078CX
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 ,_ _ 111 11 1 INIF ? 25X1
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TOP SECRET
a de facto truce with the Soviets had developed
early this year after talks for broader agreement in the valley
stalled. Masood reportedly needed the truce to allow time to
build alliances with other groups in northeastern Afghanistan
rebuild his defenses, and protect civilians in the Panjsher.
Comment: Insurgents in and around the Panjsher probably will
continue to accept Masood's leadership, but a continuing truce
eventually will erode his credibility. To maintain his control
and silence future questions on his loyalty to the resistance,
Masood will have to launch some kind of attack. The Soviets
probably will not break the truce but will continue to use their
forces in operations, like the recent sweeps near Mazar-e Sharif
and Herat City, to destroy any potential Panjsher-like
strongholds before Masood or any other leader can establish them.
225X1
25X1
FIGHTING INCREASING AROUND QANDAHAR CITY
The Embassy in Kabul reports that insurgent activities in and
around the city increased in mid-March after popular support for
the resistance grew in response to intensive government
conscription efforts. Regime personnel can move unescorted
through some areas of Qandahar during the day, but the highway
toward Herat is unsafe for all Soviet and government vehicles.
Insurgents apparently have established a stronghold northwest of
the city, forcing the government to move its district capital
south. On 12 April, 30 insurgents attacked, occupied, and
extensively damaged the Indian Consulate, which the guerrillas
believe is aiding government intelligence operations.
26 April 1983
NESA M 83-10093CX
SOVA M 83-10078CX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
TOP SECRET
Comment: The situation in Qandahar illustrates the unsolved,
fundamental counterinsurgency problem confronting Soviet forces
in Afghanistan--resurgence of insurgent activity even after
extensive multibattalion sweep operations. Repeating the
intensive air and ground attacks against Qandahar, used in a
similar situation in early 1982, probably would cause the
insurgents to withdraw into nearby rugged terrain. Continued
alienation of the local citizenry, apparent growth of insurgent
manpower and weaponry, and lack of Soviet or Afghan troops to
garrison cleared areas permanently probably would permit
guerrillas to resume attacks within a short time.
Yuri Andropov has reaffirmed Moscow's policy on Afghanistan in
his first public comments on the situation since his accession to
the post of General Secretary. In answer to a question from the
West German magazine Der Spiegel on 19 April, Andropov claimed
that Soviet troops had been invited by the Afghan Government then
in power. Noting the long common border, Andropov said that "in
assisting friends, we at the same time think of ensuring the
interests of our security." He said the troops would be
withdrawn "as soon as outside interference in the affairs of
Afghanistan has been terminated and nonresumption of such
interference guaranteed." Andropov said talks under UN auspices
"have some prospects" but are difficult because Pakistani
officials are "being held by their sleeve by their overseas
friends."
Comment: Andropov's reassertion of unchanged Soviet positions
puts his personal stamp on the Brezhnev policy that he had helped
shape and then inherited. The reference to Soviet security
apparently was intended to emphasize Moscow's determination to
consolidate a pro-Soviet regime in Afghanistan. By blaming
Pakistan for difficulties in UN mediation, Andropov indicated
that the USSR wants to keep the mediation efforts going while
trying to escape blame for lack of progress.
26 April 1983
NESA M 83-10093CX
SOVA M 83-10078CX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
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-- Soviet media reported in late March the death of journalist
Aleksander Kaverznev. Kabul Embassy reported rumors that
Kaverznev died in Afghanistan after being poisoned or shot, but
Moscow Embassy sources indicate Kaverznev died following his
return to the USSR, though rumors conflict as to whether his
death was from illness or poisoning.
-- Kabul Embassy reports that the last of its white collar
Foreign Service National employees has been notified by KHAD that
he will be arrested upon his recovery from an illness, and a
contract commissary worker who disappeared on 19 April is now
reported in prison.
26 April 1983
NESA M 83-10093CX
SOVA M 83-10078CX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1
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Top Secret
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/04: CIA-RDP85T00287R000700960001-1