(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000601210001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 15, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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, J
Central Intelligence Agency
15 DEC. 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Ms. Joszet Hudson-Ziegler
Southeast Asia Program Manager
Bureau of International Narcotic Matters
Department of State
Chiet, n erna ional Security Issues Division,
Office of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Opium Production in The Golden Triangle in
1983
1. Earlier this year, we estimated that 1983 opium
production in the Golden Triangle would be between 615 and 665
metric tons. Analysis of information received since then
indicates that production was most likely near the lower end of
that range. The attached memorandum examines the 1983 opium
production estimate in Southeast Asia--prepared using method-
ologies developed by Project UPHIGH--in greater detail.
2. The memorandum was prepared by
International Security Issues Division, Office of Global
Issues.
3. Questions and comments are welcome and may be directed
to the Chief, Strategic Narcotics Branch, OGI,
Attachment:
Opium Production in The Golden Triangle,
1983, GI M 83-10250, December 1983
GI M ~)D- iORG
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Central Intelligence Agency
Washington. D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
5 December 1983
Opium Production in The Golden Triangle in 1983
Summary
We believe, based on application of the UPHIGH methodology,
that opium production in the countries of the Golden Triangle of
Southeast Asia for the 1983 crop season was somewhat more than
600 tons, down 13 percent from the 1982 harvest of 700 tons.
Despite the decline in production, however, we expect that opium
supplies will be adequate to meet market demand. Burma, the
region's leading producer, is estimated to have produced
approximately 550 tons, some 50 tons below the 1982 production.
Thailand produced about 37 tons, down from last year by about 20
tons as dr"y weather during the planting season in November 1982
led to a 25 percent reduction in sown area. We estimate that
Laos produced about 20 tons of opium this year, down from 50 tons
This paper was prepared byl (International 25X1
Security Issues Division, Office of Global Issues. Information
available as of 5 December was used in this report. Comments and
queries should be addressed to the Chief, Strategic Narcotics
Branch, 25X1
GI M 83-10250
December 1983
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I I
Opium Production in the Golden Triangle in 1983
Applying the UPHIGH Methodology
The opium production estimates for Burma, Thailand, and Laos
for the 1983 crop season are based on a combination of satellite
and aircraft imagery and field reporting. Because cultivation
practices and poppy signatures on imagery are alike in these
countries, the basic UPHIGH methodology can be applied to all the
major growing areas of the Golden Triangle. The major opium
growing area of the Golden Triangle is the Shan State in Burma;
lesser amounts are grown in northern Thailand and north central
Laos. Imagery-derived data are used to calculate both the total
number of poppy fields and the average field size. The total
area under cultivation multiplied by average yield figures,
generally provided by Embassy reporting, results in a value for
total production. Production estimates are calculated separately
for areas of intense cultivation and areas of less intense
cultivation.
Several variables enter the estimation process at each step
and affect the accuracy of the final production estimate. First,
the estimate is sensitive to the size of the growing region
imaged. The level of confidence for the estimate rises as larger
shares of the growing area are imaged although statistical
adjustments are necessary to compensate for the poppy fields that
are missed because of their location adjacent to villages and
legitimate crops. Second, the yield per hectare can vary
according to environmental conditions from a low of 3 kilograms
per hectare to a high of 30 kilograms per hectare; Embassy
reporting indicates that an average yield is about 10 kilograms
Burma - The Region's Leading Opium Producer
We believe, based on analysis of a combination of satellite
and aircraft imagery, that some 550 tons of opium were produced
in Burma in 1983. The aircraft imagery was obtained from the
Burmese Government which acquired aerial photography of some of
the poppy-producing areas in the northern Shan State. Analysis
of the imagery obtained by the Burmese Air Force (BAF) indicates
that there has been some expansion in the total area under
cultivation in Burma, but the new poppy fields were in generally
less productive areas which tended to lower the average opium gum
yield. The major areas of production span a region encompassing
most of the Shan Plateau from the eastern Kachin State along the
China Border south nearly 600 miles into the Kayah State, with
the most intensive area of cultivation east of the Salween river
and north of Kentung. Much of this area remains beyond the
control of the central government and is virtually immune to
antinarcotics measures. hilltribe
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Crop Estimate for Burma
Intensive
Cultivation
Less Intensive
Cultivation
Total
Possible Growing
Area (hectares)
4,147,431
14,252,569
18,400,000
Growing
Area Imaged
(hectares)
1,884,670
4,060,000
7,264,670
Estimated Number
89,129
16,255
105,384
of Fields
Total Cultivated
Area (hectares)
46,383
8,542
55,175*
Total Harvest**
(metric tons)
*Based on our analysis and survey, we estimate that Burma's
opium growing region contains some 55,175 hectares plus or minus
11,500 hectares at the 67 percent confidence level.
**An average yield value of 10 kilograms per hectare was used
to estimate opium production.
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cultivators in these areas are encouraged to grow opium poppies
by'insurgent groups and other opium buyers who contract for the
harvest'well in advance of actual planting. 25X1
The BAF imagery was tie only current
data for northeastern
Burma for the 1983 harvest . We estimate
that the Burmese
surveyed approximately 400,000
hectares
in
the Shan State and
acquired photography of 54,000
hectares
or
13.5 percent of the
area surveyed. Analyzing this
imagery
we
found approximately
9,800 fields that contained opium poppy
in
various stages of
growth, representing 4,900 hectares of active poppy fields. The
average field size observed was 0.52 hectares--based on photo
measurements of a sample of 100 fields in the Shan State--and is
consistent with the value of 0.5 hectares calculated in previous
years. Scaling this number upward to include major growing areas
in Burma that were not covered by the Burmese survey results in
an estimate of 38,000 hectares that contained opium poppy--about
two-thirds of the total acreage estimated for the previous
growing season. Similar processes were employed in our review of
satellite imagery. Satellite operations in mid-to late-October
provided the basic coverage, but cloud ov r sessment
of some 60 percent of the imaged area. 25X1
Thailand-Opium Production Drops in 1983
We estimate, based on analysis of satellite imagery, Thai
Office of Narcotics Control Board (ONCB) overflights, and survey
data that the 1983 opium crop in Thailand was about 37 tons.
Satellite imagery acquired between late October 1982 and January
1983 reveals fields with good plant density and a minimum of
problems. Some 80 percent of the major growing region in
northern Thailand was imaged and reviewed. A total of 3,700
hectares were estimated to be under cultivation. The UPHIGH
methodology was used to arrive at a production estimate of 37
The ONCB conducted multiple overflights in northern Thailand
early in 1983. According to field reports, the Thai surveyed
about 80 to 90 percent of the major poppy growing area in
Thailand during January. A 24 percent decrease in the cultivated
1The Burmese flew nine sorties in late February and early
March against 28 targets in the northeastern Shan State; exposing
51 rolls of 35mm Kodacolor II film. Their survey covered only
known poppy fields and although specific flight lines are not
available, we recieved photo logs which denoted the general areas
imaged. Deterioriating weather conditions and haze necessitated
termination of the mission on 4 March 1983. Nevertheless,, the
Burmese imagery serves as surrogate ground truth to establish
opium poppy signatures for use with imagery from reconnaissance
systems.
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Crop Estimate For Thailand
Intensi
Cultiva
ve Less
tion Cult
Intensive
ivation
Total
Possible Growing
Area (hectares) 2,282,7
07 3,14
5,481
5,428,188
Growing Area 1,640,4
12 2,73
1,181
4
371
593
Imaged (hectares)
Estimated Number 5,5
56
1,532
,
,
7
088
of Fields
Total Cultivated 2,8
89
796
,
3
686*
Area (hectares)
Total Harvest**
29
,
(metric tons)
8
37
*Based on our analysis and survey, we estimate that Thailand's
opium growing region contains some 3,686 hectares plus or minus 500
hectares at the 67 percent confidence level.
**An average yield value of 10 kilograms per hectare was used
to estimate opium production.
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area observed--7,500 hectares in 1982 to 5,700 hectares in
1983--was reported by the ONCB. The largest decrease was in
Chiang Mai Province where opium poppy cultivation reportedly
declined some 40 percent from 1982. According to field
reporting, the reduction in area planted was the result of the
increased use of substitute crops by hilltribe poppy cultivators,
a phenomenon that probably resulted from the low prices for raw
opium at the time of planting and the threat of eradication.
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Laos-Opium Production Also Lower 25X1
We estimate opium production in Laos in 1983 was about 20
tons. Analysis of satellite imagery covering approximately 80
percent of the opium growing region reveals the greatest
concentration of poppy cultivation is in central northern
Laos--particularly in Phongsali and Louangphranbang
Provinces--with lesser concentrations in Louang Namtha and
Oudomsai Provinces. Approximately 2,000 hectares of opium poppy
is estimated to have been planted in northern Laos during the
1983 season. We have no specific reporting regarding opium
yields in Laos and have thus used yields reporting for analagous
regions in Thailand.
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Crop Estimate for Laos
Intense
Cultivation
Less Intense
Cultivation
Total
Possible Growing
Area (hectares)
2,064,598
13,635,411
15,700,000
Growing Area
Imaged (hectares)
2,064,589
9,045,411
11,110,000
Estimated Number
Fields
9,924
3,737
13,661
Total Cultivated
Area.(hectares)
Total H
t**
1,528
575
2,103*
arves
(metric tons)
15
6
21
*Based on our analysis and survey, we estimate that Laos' opium
growing region contains some 2,103 hectares plus or minus
500 hectares at the 67 percent confidence level.
**An average yield value of 10 kilograms per hectare was used
to estimate opium production.
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SUBJECT: Opium Production in the Golden Triangle in 1983
Distribution:
Originals -Addressee
D/OGI
NIO/NAR
CPAS/ASG AM
DDO/IAD
OIA/ERD RSB
OEA/SE/N
ISID
ISID/NAR
PS/OGI
DDO/EA
OGI/ISID/NAR ((December 1983)
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