(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000502030002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 29, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Memorandum for: 25X1
.attached are copies of papers Which ou:
folks prepared in resronse to PO requests
for support in putting together briefing
hooks for the PCPs upcoming trip to I;esterr
Europe. The papers :ere sent to the DO
Since he usuall~? doe:
no* run these things b~? the front office,
1 thought I ~.ould at least gi~?e ~?ou a
25X1 drop cope. 25X1
_attachment
as state.3
EUR X83-10239
~0 Sept '8~
Distribution:
1 - D/EURA
2 - Production Staff
4 - OCO/IDCD/CD
1 - WE File
1 - Branch Files
1 - Authors
DDI/EURA/WE
E U R A
Office of European Analysis
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Denmark: Political Overview
Conservative Prime Minister Poul Schlueter leads a minority
center-right coalition government that includes his Conservative
Party, the Christian peoples' Party, the Liberal Party, and the
Center Democratic Party. These parties hold only 65 out of 179
seats in parliament and the coalition has to rely on various 25X1
combinations of other parties. depending on the issue, to pass
legislation. In office since September 1982, the coalition
replaced a Social Democratic (SD?) government which resigned
after failing to muster enough parliamentary support -- even from
within the party -- to pass an economic austerity program for the
1983 budget. Schlueter, the first Conservative head of state
since 1901, has staked his government's existence on its own
austerity measures designed to come t.o terms with the stagnant,
deficit-ridden eccnom_y. Ne has been successful thus far in
gaining support -- mainly through compromises -- from two
maverick parties and there have been some signs of economic
improvement.
The government strongly supports membership in NATO and the
dual-track decision on INF. The socialist opposition, led by the
SDP, threatened to topple Schlueter in May when it pushed through
a parliamentary resolution that was somewhat at odds with the
dual decision. This placed the coalition in a difficult
situation, because it had to inform NATO of this dissenting view
while refusing to adopt it as government policy. Schlueter will
3 OCT 1983
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likely be faced with new threats from the left this fall, The
pacifist Radical '_iberals have also chosen to oppose deployment
by all possible democratic means, even if this causes a
government collapse.
Despite poor odds, however, the year-old coalition has
weathered several crises and continues to be the most popular
Danish administration since World War II. If an election were to
be called, Dolls indicate the Conservatives would probably double
their representation, although largely at the expense of the
other coalition members
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Netherlands: Political and Economic Outlook
--- -~-- -
Prime Minister Lubbers' center-right Christian ~emc,cratic-
Liberal coalition retains a secure parliamentary ma.iority and,
despite occasional squabbles, is more cohesive than its recent
predecessors. The government's maor worry continues to be
economic difficulties. llnemo?oyment, at 17,E percent the highest
in the EC, is pushing the b~~dget deficit to 12 percent of GDP.
In an effort to hold down spending, the government's austere
budget Calls for spending Cuts in Social welfare programs and
wage restraint that are painful by generous Dutch standards. The 25X1
cuts probably are as deep as the Netherlands can bear -- given
the political realities -- but they will only produce a marginal
improvement in the government's financial position. To obtain
more revenues, the Outch also are considering increased natural
gas sales. Potential consumers, however, probably will balk at
the prices the Dutch want. Liberal Party politicians are also
fearful that increased gas revenues will be used not to encourage
structural changes that will make Dutch industry more competitive
but, instead, simply to prop up welfare expenditures. The Dutch
are hoping that a US-led economic upturn will ease domestic
pressures, but current growth forecasts are not encouraging.
Growth is likely to be stagnant in 1983 and probably will
increase only to 1.5 to 2 percent in 1984, not enough to reduce
unemployment.
The Lubbers government is well disposed toward the US,
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although the Dutch are irritated at what they see as Washington's
failure to buy more Dutch defense equipment. The government has
supported US initiatives in the Middle East and taken a more
sympathetic view of US concerns in the Third World than its
predecessors. On INF, however, it still faces strong OppOSit~On
not only from various "peace" groups and leftist political
parties but from a bloc of Christian Democratic parliamentarians
determined to vote against deplovment even if this hr~ngs dawn
the government. The size o` a mass anti-INr demonstration, now
scheduled for ?9 Octaber, will be an important gauge of the
"peace movement's" strength. Prime Minister Lubbers has said
that a deployment decision should be made next June, but he has
left himself room to maneuver. Lubbers probably hoes ghat
~nit~al deployments in the UK, FRG, and Italy will encourage prc-
deployment sent'ment in the Netherlands, or at least increase a
sense that deployment is "inevitable." He probably is also
hoping that NATO agreement to reduce current Dutch nuclear
assignments can be used to bargain for a positive INF decision.
More than anything else, however, Lubbers and most Dutch
politicians hope that a US-Soviet arms agreement will preclude
the need for deployment in the Netherlands. To achieve such an
agreement, Lubbers has indicated that serious consideration
should be given to Soviet demands that British and French nuclear
~y~~em5 oe taxing into account in INF negotiations 25X1
25X1
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Norway: Political Overview
For: DCI, Casey
9 September 198?
Prime Minister Willoch's Conservative Party heaps a
coalition of three parties that hold a 79-76 ma.iority in Norway's
Parliament. The two smaller parties, the Christian Peoples Party
and the Center Party, have supported the Conservatives since the
election in 1981, but only entered the government this ,tune, In
the cabinet reorganization, the Conservatives retained the
Foreign Affairs and De`ense Ministries, ~!emonstra?ing the oartv's
strength and its intentions to continue the foreign and security
policies in support of NATO INF negotiating positions, NATn
modernization, and European energy security. The coalition
parties differ on some domestic issues. Willoch granted the
smaller parties concessions by reducing interest rates and addinv_
job creation funds to an otherwise austere budget. We expect
Prime Minister Willoch to be able to maintain foreign policy
discipline with the coalition parties on most issues since they
will be trying to show themselves as reliable governing parties
in anticipation of the parliamentary elections in 1985.
The prospect of INF deployment elsewhere in Western Europe
has raised an active anti-nuclear movement in Norway. The
government continues to be challenged by parliamentary votes
questioning Norwegian support for dep~ovment should negotiations
fail. The government has defeated anti-INF measures in
Parliament by a margin of a single vote. Five members of i.he
small center parties usually vote against the government, which
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must depend on the opposition rightwinq Progress Party for its
1NF maiority. Norwegian officials have assured the ltniteci States
that they can call upon sufficient votes to assure the one-vote
margin.
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