REASSESSMENT OF INSURGENT STRENGTH IN GUATEMALA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000401910001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 23, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/21 : CIA-RDP85T00287R000401910001-8
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SUBJECT: Reassessment of Insurgent Strength in Guatemala
REFERENCE: ALA Memorandum ALA-M-82-10151, dated 17 November 1982 25X1
1. A revised estimate of insurgent strength in Guatemala)
It includes an analysis of the extent and intensity of insurgent
activity, and probable guerrilla casualties resulting from
government actions during that time.
Guerrilla Army of the Poor (EGP)
Revolutionary Organization of the
People in Arms (ORP.A)
Rebel Armed Forces (FAR)
Guatemalan Communist Party/Dissident
Faction (PGT/D)
Guatemalan Communist Party/Orthodox
Faction (PGT/O)
Total Strength (full-time combatants)
Militia (part--time irregulars)
800 to 1,000
approx. 400
100 to 200
300 to 400a
2,000 to 2,500 b
2,000 to 2,500c
2. This assessment represents a reduction from the previous
estimate of 2,000 to 3,000 full-time
insurgents within the country.
during the last half of 1982 through .May 1983.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/21 : CIA-RDP85T00287R000401910001-8
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/21 : CIA-RDP85T00287R000401910001-8
SUBJECT: Reassessment of Insurgent Strength in Guatemala
3. Comments and inquiries regarding this estimate are
encouraged. Responses should be directed to
CIA/Central American Branch
Deputy Chie
a The increase in PGT/O strength reflects the most current
intelligence information, and not an increase in this group's
actual numbers during the past six months.
b while the precise addition of,the individual groups totals
2,300 to 2,800, a total strength of 2,000 to 2,500 is recommended
to more accurately ind.icate.'iinsu-r9ent strength. The PGT/O is not
given consideration within the insurgent totals because it has
largely disdained military-related activities, and remains
outside the Gautemalan National Revolutionary Union---the
guerrilla umbrella organization.
supporters could be expected to participate actively in insurgent
operations, if so directed and if weaponry were available.
Nevertheless, we continue to judge that only a limited percentage
of this group could be mustered for any given operation.
determination that probably an equal number of part--time
C The militia figure again reflects an earlier
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SECRET
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/21 : CIA-RDP85T00287R000401910001-8