IMPENDING DEBATE ON JORDANIAN ARMS SALES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00176R001600110013-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 15, 2008
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: October 29, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85TOO176R001600110013-4
SECRET
National Intelligence Council
NIC 8761-82
29 October 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: A/NIO/NESA
SUBJECT: Impending Debate on Jordanian Arms Sales
1. NSC and Defense officials have informed us that they hope to go
forward to Congress sometime this fall with the arms package for Jordan
that has long been under consideration. This sale of advanced fighter
aircraft (F5Gs now and Fl6s and Mobile I-Hawks later) will play a critical
role in King Hussein's calculations regarding what role Jordan should play
in the President's peace initiative and how much support the US can
deliver.
2. Several staff contacts of mine in the Senate have commented that-
they anticipate any Congressional debate over the Jordanian arms sale will
be more intense than the Saudi AWACS controversy. As one noted, the
Israeli lobby sees the Jordanian sale as a "make or break" test of Israel's
influence in the Congress and a battle in which Israel must "pull out all
the stops" to block the deal. Another commented that without a forthcoming
statement by Hussein on the peace process, any arms sale doesn't have a
"prayer" of passing.
3. One way to prevent such a bruising battle may be for the
administration to strike a deal with Prime Minister Begin offering forward
movement on the pending F-16 sale to Israel for acquiescence on the
Jordanian deal but most observers on the Hill feel it is unlikely Begin
will agree to such an arrangement.
-- For Begin the Jordanian arms deal is a chance to undermine
the US peace initiative by challenging publicly Hussein's
credentials as a peacemaker and, in turn, undermining the
King's confidence in US support.
-- Defense Minister Sharon earlier this year said Tel Aviv cannot
"allow" any sophisticated arms sales to Amman from the US.
This Memo is classified
SECRET in its entirety. SECRET
c,\tc
REG
. Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85T00176R001600110013-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85TOO176R001600110013-4
4. As happened during the AWACS dispute, the intelligence community
may be called upon to provide an assessment of Jordan's military
capability, the Syrian threat to Amman and implications of a sale for the
Jordanian-Israeli balance (including possible clashes with Israeli
overflights). NSC staffers have informally suggested to me that such an
assessment would be useful in the past and might be formally requested
after Tuesday's elections.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85TOO176R001600110013-4
 Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85TOO176R001600110013-4
ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
jmpending Debate on Jordanian Arms Sales
EXTENSION
NO.
NIC 8761-82
A/N IO/NESA
DATE
29 October 1982
TO: designation, room number, and
ui ing)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
1.
NIO/NESA
Y
i
h
2
ou may w
s
to authorize
.
an SNIE on this subject
prior to any official request
3
in order to avoid the
.
"politicization" of such a
C/NIC
request which may occur when
4.
the issue is front-burner.
5.
Charles E. Waterman
VC/NIC
2~
O
6.
DDCI YY
8.
DCI
?G6U.
5 NOV
9
,/
10. /
11.
/
C
/1/e
12.
13.
el~"1o') A
14
.
15.
pCl
EXEC
FORM 61 O USE PREVIOUS
1-79 EDITIONS
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85TOO176R001600110013-4