POLISH SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: March 25, 1982
• Content Type: CABLE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
L 6 t c
rnw^>r^w~w^~^ w ^ `~ T L: !r
PP RUEAIIB
ZNY CCCCC ZOC STATE ZZH
STU8941
PP RUEHC
DE RUDKRW #2822/1 0841200
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241154Z MAR 82
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7144
INFO RUFHPOL/POLISH SITUATION COLLECTIVE
BT
C 0 N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 2822 COMBINED SECTION
E.O. 12065: GDS 3/23/88 (MEEHAN, FRANCIS J.) OR-M
TAGS: PEPR, PINT, PL
SUBJ: POLISH SITUATION
2. SUMMARY. IN THE FOURTH MONTH OF MARTIAL LAW THE JARU-
ZELSKI REGIME GIVES NO MORE SIGNS THAN BEFORE OF BEING
WILLING TO MEET WESTERN CONDITIONS FOR RESUMPTION OF NORMAL
RELATIONS. IN U.S. POLICY TERMS, THERE IS NO BASIS TO
JUSTIFY MODIFICATION OF OUR SANCTIONS, WE SHOULD -
IR-PAR-
TICULAR NOT OURSELVES-BE TAKEN-__1W BY THE REGIME'S
EFFORTS TO PLAY ON U.S. SYMPATHIES IN THE CORN-FOR-STARVING-
CHICKENS DEAL. NOR SHOULD WE RTED BY- HE FAKE
ARCOMtN1 TRAT THE WEST IS DRIVING JARUZELSKI INTO THE
RUSSIANS' ARMS. THE GENERAL LOOKS PREPARED TO TOUGH IT
OUT WITH US FOR A LONG TIME AND WE SHOULD LET HIM STEW IN THE
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES. AS A MEANS OF PRESSURE ON THE REGIME,
WE SHOULD CONSIDER MOUNTING A MASSIVE "FREE WALESA" CAMPAIGN.
3. INTERNALLY, THE GENERALS ARE ENJOYING BEING IN CHARGE,
AND JARUZELSKI EMERGES MORE CLEARLY AS BEING IN CHARGE OF
THE GENERALS. THERE MAY BE INTERNAL DISORDERS IN THE TIME
AHEAD, BUT AT THIS POINT JARUZELSKI LOOKS AS IF HE CAN STAY
ON TOP OF THE SECURITY SITUATION. WHETHER HE CAN MOVE TOWARD
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION IS MUCH MORE PROBLEMATICAL. THERE ARE
SIGNS OF INDECISION, AROUND JARUZELSKI,
WITH RAKOWSKI POSSIBLY TRYING TO PERSUADE THE
GENERAL TO TAKE THE BROADER APPROACH. THE POLITICAL INSECURI-
TIES WHICH THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS PROBABLY MEAN THAT JARUZEL-
SKI WILL COME DOWN TO THE SECURITY SIDE IN THE PINCH. END
SUMMARY.
4. NOW WELL INTO THE FOURTH MONTH OF MARTIAL LAW, WHAT IS
THE SHAPE OF POLAND, BOTH THE INTERNAL ASPECTS AND ESPECIALLY
FROM A U.S. POLICY VIEWPOINT?
5. FIRST, THE INTERNATIONAL SIDE. THE ASPECT " FROM-A-US-
POLICY-VIEWPOINT" IS CLEAR. THE THREE CONDITIONS WE AND
OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES LAID DOWN FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL
RELATIONS REMAIN UNFULFILLED. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THAT IS HOW THINGS WILL STAY FOR A LONG TIME. POLISH OFFICIAL
- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
1
CONFIDENTIAL %
82 8265501 SCP PAGE 002 NC 8265501
TOR: 250042Z MAR 82
------------------------------------------------------------------------
STATEMENTS DURING THE CODEL OBEY VISIT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE MONTH COULD NOT HAVE BEEN MORE EXPLICIT, OR LESS FORTH-
COMING, ON MARTIAL LAW, RELEASE OF DETAINEES, PARTICULARLY
WALESA, AND RESUMPTION OF GENUINE DIALOGUE WITH SOLIDARITY.
6. I THINK IT IS TIME FOR US TO EMBARK ON A
MAJOR "FREE WALESA" PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN AS A MEANS OF EXERT-
ING PRESSURE ON JARUZELSKI. THE REGIME'S FEAR OF WALESA WAS
BROUGHT OUT PARTICULARLY CLEARLY IN CODEL OBEY'S MEETING
WITH MINISTER OF TRADE UNION AFFAIRS CIOSEK. CIOSEK'S STATE-
MENT THAT WALESA WOULD HAVE TO REMAIN IN POLITICAL ISOLATION
FOR A LONG TIME CONFIRMS THE REGIME'S INTENTION TO BREAK
WALESA POLITICALLY, NOT BY PHYSICAL COERCION BUT THROUGH
LETTING HIM VEGETATE. THERE IS SOMETHING GROTESQUE ABOUT
A MODERN STATE DEPLOYING ITS RESOURCES MASSIVELY AGAINST A
SINGLE INDIVIDUAL, A "SIMPLE WORKERS" AT THAT, TO THE EXTENT
THAT EVEN HIS WHEREABOUTS ARE A STATE SECRET. THE CALLOUS-
NESS OF WALESA'S NOT BEING ALLOWED TO ATTEND THE NEW BABY'S
CHRISTENING MARCH 21 IN GDANSK IS OFFENSIVE. A "FREE WALESA"
CAMPAIGN WOULD SERVE TO PUT THE WESTERN CONDITION ON RELEASE
OF PRISONERS IN A HIGHLY SPECIFIC WAY, EASILY GRASPED BY
POLES AND FOREIGNERS ALIKE. IT WOULD DRAW THE LINE FIRMLY.
UNTIL WALESA IS TRULY FREE, WE COULD INSIST, THERE IS NO
POSSIBILITY OF MOVEMENT, INCLUDING ECONOMIC MOVEMENT ON OUR
SIDE. IT WOULD, I BELIEVE, BE HIGHLY ACCEPTABLE TO THE
POLISH PEOPLE.
7. THE JARUZELSKI REGIME'S INABILITY TO MOVE ON THE THREE
WESTERN CONDITIONS IS STRIKING IN THE SENSE THAT THE POLITICAL
ADVANTAGES OF MOVEMENT, ANY MOVEMENT, WOULD BE HIGH. THIS
WOULD BE THE OBVIOUS ROUTE TO TAKE IN ORDER TO WORK FOR DIVI-
SION IN THE WEST. THE GERMANS, IN PARTICULAR, SEEM TO HAVE
BEEN PRACTICALLY DROOLING AT THE THOUGHT THAT "SIGNALS" WERE
IN THE OFFING. YET RAKOWSKI COULD NOT DELIVER, OR EVEN PROMISE
TO DELIVER, IN BONN IN DECEMBER, AND WEHNER SEEMS TO HAVE
DRAWN A BLANK IN HIS FEBRUARY VISIT TO WARSAW, DESPITE ALL
THE NICE THINGS HE TOLD THE POLES.
8. IN U.S. POLICY TERMS, THERE IS NOT THE SLIGHTEST BASIS
TO JUSTIFY REAL MODIFICATION OF THE VARIOUS SANCTIONS TAKEN
AGAINST THE REGIME FOLLOWING THE IMPOSITION OF MARTIAL LAW.
JARUZELSKI GIVES EVERY SIGN SO FAR OF BEING PREPARED TO TOUGH
IT OUT WITH US, RELYING ON TIME. WESTERN BANKRS, AND OUR
ALLIES TO WEAR US DOWN. THE REGIME SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED ON
THE CORN-FOR-STARVING-CHICKENS DEAL AS A USEFUL LEVER FOR
GETTING UNDER OUR SKIN -- AND UNDER OUR SANCTIONS. THEY ARE
WORKING ON U.S. SYMPATHIES, NOTABLY THOSE OF U.S. PRIVATE
RELIEF ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS CARE. IN THE CODEL OBEY VISIT
THEY WERE AWARE OF THE CONGRESSMEN'S SENSITIVITY ON THE
POINT THAT OUR NOT SELLING THE CORN ON EASY TERMS MIGHT LEAD
TO AN ANTI-US SWING IN POLISH PUBLIC OPINION, AND THEY WORKED
THAT ANGLE CAREFULLY. WE SHOULD NOT LET OURSELVES BE TAKEN
IN. I WOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE OUR CHANCES WITH THE POLISH
PEOPLE, CORN OR NO CORN, AND AS WE TOLD THE CODEL, WE ARE IN
ANY CASE NOT RPT NOT RUNNING IN A POPULARITY CONTEST IN
POLAND. OUR POLICY PRIORITIES HAVE TO BE TO TAKE A POSITION
WHICH RESPONDS FITTINGLY TO THE MARTIAL LAW SITUATION, WHICH
WE HAVE DONE, AND TO STICK WITH IT UNTIL THE POLES GIVE US
REASON TO CHANGE. HUMANITARIAN AID, PROPERLY SPEAKING,
COULD CONTINUE, AND EVEN EXPAND, IN THIS POLICY FRAMEWORK.
9. WE WILL VERY LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH FLEXIBILITY TOWARD
JARUZELSKI AS A RESULT. WE ARE PRETTY WELL BOXED IN. SO
IS HE. THIS POLICY STAND-OFF COULD GO ON FOR A LONG TIME.
MUCH AS ONE MIGHT REGRET THIS ON THE GENERAL GROUND THAT
WE HAVE REDUCED OPTIONS, WE SHOULD NOT BECOME IMPATIENT, OR
START TRYING TO WORK AROUND IT JUST FOR THE SAKE OF MOVEMENT,
OR OF OUR HUMAN SYMPATHIES FOR THE POLES. IT IS A TIME TO
STAND.
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
CONFIDENTIAL
82 8265501 SCP PAGE 003 NC 8265501
---------TOR: 250042Z MAR 82
----~---------------- -----------------------------------------
10. WE HAVE NOT BURDENED WASHINGTON WITH DETAILS, BUT THE
POINT SHOULD BE MADE THAT THE REGIME IS EMBARKED ON A SUS-
TAINED, VIRULENT ANTI-AMERICAN PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN WHICH
SEEMS TO ASPIRE TO RUSSIAN STANDARDS. THE POLISH PEOPLE
ARE NOT FOOLED BY IT. IT IS SO HAMMY AND DULL THAT IT CAN
HARDLY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY -- EXCEPT IT SHOULD BE TAKEN
SERIOUSLY AS WE CONSIDER OUR POLISH OPTIONS. JARUZELSKI'S
PROPAGANDA. MACHINE SEEMS TO WANT TO BURN THE BRIDGES TO THE
U.S. I BELIEVE WE SHOULD REGISTER THAT FACT IN OUR OWN VIEW
OF THE SITUATION -- AND LET THEM BURN. THE REGIME HAS A LOT
MORE TO LOSE THAN WE DO IN THE PROCESS. AT THE SAME TIME WE
SHOULD NOT OURSELVES TAKE THE INITIATIVE TO DESTROY CULTURAL
AND SOCIAL LINKS WHICH STILL AFFORD US A WINDOW ON POLISH
TIME IS OPPORTUNE.
11. REGIME REPRESENTATIVES MAKE A POINT, AS THEY DID WITH
CODEL OBEY, OF HOLDING OUT A KIND OF THREAT THAT CURRENT
U.S. (AND WESTERN) POLICIES LEAVE JARUZELSKI NO ALTERNATIVE
BUT TO GO THE RUSSIAN ROUTE. "WE ARE DRIVING HIM INTO THE
RUSSIANS' ARMS." IS THE WAY IT IS PUT - QUAINTLY, SINCE THE
REGIME IS FIRMLY IN RUSSIAN ARMS OF ITS OWN VOLITION. I DO
NOT BELIEVE WE SHOULD CONSIDER GOING TO UNUSUAL LENGTHS IN
AN EFFORT TO GET IT OUT. RATHER, WE SHOULD TAKE THE POSITION
THAT JARUZELSKI MADE HIS CHOICE DECEMBER 13. THE REGIME IS
NOW MAKING A GREAT DEAL OF THE THEME THAT ITS TRUE FRIENDS
ARE IN THE EAST, THAT THE WEST IS A SNARE AND A DELUSION.
IT SHOULD BE LEFT TO ENNOY FULLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT
THESIS. LET IT GET ITS ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE FROM THE EAST
AS WELL. THE ONLY CIRCUMSTANCES WARRANTING REVIEW ON OUR
PART WOULD BE A POLITICAL CHANGE OF HEART ON JARUZELSKI'S
"
PART WHICH IS NOT IN THE CARDS SO FAR AS ONE CAN SEE NOW.
12. SECOND, THE INTERNAL SIDE. THE GENERALS REMAIN TIGHTLY
IN COMMENT, WITH THE CIVILIAN SIDE OF THE PARTY STILL FLOUNDER-
ING IN VARIOUS SUB-CULTS. JARUZELSKI SEEMS CONTENT TO LET
THEM HACK AWAY AT EACH OTHER. PERHAPS THAT MAKES IT EASIER
FOR HIM AND THE OTHER GENERALS TO RUN THINGS. THE INTRA-PARTY
QUARRELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE AFFECTED HIM NEGATIVELY SO FAR.
THE IMPRESSION STRENGTHENS THAT THE GENERALS ARE ENJOYING
BEING IN CHARGE, AND JARUZELSKI EMERGES MORE CLEARLY AS BEING
IN CHARGE OF THE GENERALS. AS WE HAVE SAID PREVIOUSLY, THEY
ARE UNLIKELY TO TURN IT ALL OVER TO SO FECKLESS AND UNDESCI-
PLINED A BUNCH AS THE CONTENDING CIVILIANS SEEM TO BE.
13. BUT CAN THE MILITARY CONTAIN THE INTERNAL PRESSURES IN
THE COUNTRY? I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE SECURITY APPARATUS,
BACKED BY THE ARMED FORCES, CAN DO SO. THEY HAVE A MOST
USEFUL DE FACTO ALLY IN THE CATHOLIC CHURCH. IT HAS ALREADY
GIVEN THE REGIME VALUABLE AID WITH ITS APPEALS FOR CIVIC
PEACE, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO VIEW THAT AS THE PRIMARY
POLITICAL GOAL. THE COMBINATION OF THE ARMED FORCES AND
THE CHURCH WILL BE HARD TO BEAT. WHICH IS NOT TO SAY THERE
WILL NOT BE TROUBLE, PERHAPS SERIOUS TROUBLE, BUT JARUZELSKI
LOOKS AS IF HE CAN STAY ON TOP OF THE SECURITY SITUATION.
LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN MILITARY INTERVENTION (THE THIRD SCENARIO
OF 81 WARSAW 12543) NOW SEEMS SOMEWHAT FURTHER DOWN ON THE.
HORIZON THAN IT DID IN EARLY FEBRUARY (WARSAW 1361).
14. A TIGHT INTERNAL SECURITY SITUATION IS THE ESSENTIAL
BASIS OF JARUZELSKI'S RULE, BUT IT IS.NOT IN ITSELF ENOUGH
OF A POLICY TO GET THE COUNTRY MOVING. THE BROAD ISSUE THE
GENERAL FACES DOMESTICALLY IS WHETHER TO CONTINUE HUNKERING
DOWN IN A SECURITY POSTURE, OR TO SEEK TO ENGAGE THE SOCIAL
FORCES OF THE COUNTRY POSITIVELY IN THE POLITICAL AND
ECONOMIC PROCESSES--AS HE HAS PROMISED HE WOULD EVER SINCE
DECEMBER 13.
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6
CONFIDENTIAL
82 8265501 SCP PAGE 004 NC 8265501
TOR: 250042Z MAR 82
------------------------------------------------------ -----------------
COUNCIL, OR OF JARUZELSKI HIMSELF, TO SAY WITH MUCH ASSURANCE
HOW THE BROAD ISSUE IS BEING ADDRESSED. THE EVIDENCE IS
MIXED. THE CHURCH CONTINUES TO LAMENT THAT THE REGIME DOES
NOT KNOW WHERE IT IS GOING, AND IT HAS BEEN NOTABLY UNSUC-
CESSFUL SO FAR IN ITS ATTEMPTS (SOME WOULD SAY THESE HAVE
NOT BEEN VERY FORCEFUL TO PERSUADE THE GENERAL TO TAKE A
NATIONAL CONCILIATION COURSE WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SOLIDARITY.
CHURCH-STATE DIALOGUE WILL CONTINUE, HOWEVER, PRETTY MUCH AS
WE HAVE SEEN IT DURING THE PAST THREE MONTHS. THERE WILL BE
STRAINS, BUT I DOUBT THAT IT WILL COME TO A WRENCHING STRUGGLE
BETWEEN THEM. THEY STILL NEED EACH OTHER TOO BADLY FOR THAT.
16. THE EVIDENCE IS FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE. BUT I HAVE THE IM-
PRESSION OF INDECISION AND LACK OF CLEAR
DIRECTION CLOSE TO JARUZELSKI HIMSELF.
I SUSPECT THAT RAKOWSKI PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE. WE HEAR
THAT HIS STANDING WITH THE GENERAL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN,
AND SIGNS OF HIS INFLUENCE CROP UP -- AS, FOR EXAMPLE, IN
JARUZELSKI'S MARCH 11 SPEECH (WARSAW 2541). THE JARUZELSKI
PROJECTION FROM THAT STATEMENT IS VERY MUCH AN OPEN, NATIONAL
ONE, LOOKING TO CONCILIATION AND CONSENSUS. MY GUESS IS
THAT THIS REFLECTS RAKOWSKI THINKING. I SUSPECT THAT RAKOW-
SKI, HAVING ESTABLISHED HIS ORTHODOX CREDENTIALS OVER THE
PAST YEAR, IS NOW TRYING TO EASE JARUZELSKI AWAY FROM WHAT
ONE MIGHT ASSUME IS HIS NATURAL INSTINCT FOR DISCIPLINE,
SACRIFICE, HARD WORK AND SELF-RELIANCE, THE CONVENTIONAL
MILITARY-AUTHORITARIAN FORMULA FOR POLITICAL SOLUTIONS.
RAKOWSKI IS PROBABLY MORE AWARE THAN MOST OF THE LIMITATIONS
OF SUCH A FORMULA, OF THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL RUN UP
DOMESTIC PRESSURES TOO HIGH FOR COMFORT.
17. ONE HAS THE IMPRESSION OF SOME OF HIS STATEMENTS
THAT JARUZELSKI SEEMS THE LIMITATIONS TOO AND THAT HE WOULD
DIKE TO FIND A BROADER BASIS IF -- AND IT IS A BIG IF --
IT CAN BE FOUND SAFELY. AND SO HE MAKES "LIBERAL" STATEMENTS,
SUCH AS THAT OF MARCH 11, BUT THEN DRAWS BACK FROM THE PRAC-
TICAL IMPLICATIONS. IF THIS SUPPOSITION IS AT ALL ACCURATE,
IT POINTS TO BASIC INSECURITIES ON THE REGIME'S PART AND IS
A BAD AUGURY FOR PROGRESS. IT SUGGESTS THAT WHEREAS THE
ECONOMICS OF THE SITUATION PULL THE REGIME WESTWARDS, THE
EFFORT INVOLVES A HEAVIER POLITICAL BURDEN, NAMELY A GENUINE
EFFORT AT NATIONAL RECONCILIATION, THAN THE SYSTEM CAN CARRY.
JARUZELSKI HOPES NOT TO HAVE TO MAKE A HARD CHOICE BETWEEN
WESTERN ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND SECURITY OF CONTROL AT HOME,
BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH DOUBT THAT HE WILL CHOOSE THE LATTER
IF PUSH COMES TO SHOVE.
MEEHAN
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/31: CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150040-6