INSURGENCY: SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE LAST DECADE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050052-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 52
• Publication Date: April 12, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050052-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NIC 2689-83
12 April 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Charles E. Waterman, VC/NIC
SUBJECT: Insurgency: Significant Trends in the Last Decade
1. The purpose of this memorandum is to highlight an obvious but
insufficiently noted shift in the political nature of insurgencies
worldwide. Most insurgencies a decade ago were leftist or at least anti-
Western due to intense nationalism. They were generally backed by the
Soviets or their representative, and were victorious. This situation no
longer pertains.
2. Specifically:
-- In 1973, 10 politically significant insurgencies were
underway (see chart). Nine were anti-Western in political
content, of which seven were victorious in at least the short
run. The one anti-leftist insurgency lost.
-- In 1983, there are 12 politically significant insurgencies
extant. Six are anti-leftist in political content, of which
the outcome of five remains in dispute and one has been largely
suppressed. There are also six anti-Western insurgencies of
which the outcome of three remains in dispute and three have
been largely suppressed.
-- Four of the now ongoing anti-leftist insurgencies are against
leftist regimes resulting from successful 1973 insurgencies.
Soviet "victories" have not been turned into "defeats" but they
have become costly.
-- In at least two anti-leftist insurgencies, the Soviets probably
believe there is US support.
Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050052-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050052-8
? CONFIDENTIAL ?
3. This situation must affect Soviet judgments on support to
insurgencies, probably as follows:
-- "Peoples Revolutionary War," formerly a leftist preserve, has
become a two-edged sword.
-- Direct intervention, as in Afghanistan, does not guarantee
success.
-- Leftist insurgencies are no longer cheap instruments by which
to project influence. Initial victories in such wars may be
ephemeral, and increasingly costly.
-- Increasing Western, and particularly US support, to anti-
leftist insurgencies is a disturbing trend, and must be
considered a real possibility.
-- Support by a leftist state to insurgencies in neighboring
countries may now trigger a retaliation internally in the
supporting state. This possibility gives any operational
planner pause.
4. In short, we have moved away from a situation in which insurgency
was a leftist monopoly. In part this is simply because there are more
established leftist governments, in part because of more aggressive Western
tactics, and in part because of activist regional policies of certain
conservative regimes (i.e. South Africa). For reasons outlined in
paragraph 3, a case can be made that the overall trend is desirable from
the US perspective.
Charles E. Waterman
Attachment:
Chart
Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050052-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050052-8
CONFIDENTIAL 0
NIC 2689-83
12 April 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Insurgency: Significant Trends in the Last Decade
NIC/VC/NIC:CEWATERMAN:jcn 12 Apr. 83
Attachment:
Chart
Distribution:
1 - DCI w/att
1 - DDCI w/att
1 - Exec. Dir. w/att
1 - SA/IA w/att
1 - ER w/att
1 - DDI w/att
1 - DDO w/att
1 - C/NIC w/att
1 - VC/NIC (Meyer) w/att
,4-- VC/NIC (Waterman) w/att
1 - DDI Registry w/att
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050052-8
 Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050052-8
0 CONFIDENTIAL * Att. to NIC 2689-83
POLITICALLY SIGNIFICANT INSURGENCIES
Admittedly this chart oversimplifies the complex local issues at stake in
these conflicts by putting them in solely east-west terms, but is used for
illustrative purposes.
1973 Winner
Nicaragua Anti-Western Guerrillas Anti-Leftist Regime Guerrillas
Angola " it 11 11 11
Mozambique " if it 11 11
Vietnam If If
Cambodia II II
Laos " If " II II
Zimbabwe " " it 11
Oman " If If Regime
PLO/Israel " It
Anti-Leftist Guerrillas Anti-Western Regime "
1983 Winner
*Nicaragua Anti-Leftist Guerrillas Anti-Western Regime ?
*Angola
*Mozambique at ?
*Afghanistan " If " II ?
*Kampuchea 11 Regime
*Ethiopia/Eritrea If to ?
El Salvador Anti-Western Guerrillas Anti-Leftist Regime ?
Guatemala If If ?
Namibia 7
North Yemen go to Regime
Western Sahara " " " " 11
PLO/Israel
*Leftist takeover in 1970s
Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050052-8