NIC ACTIVITY REPORT FOR 6 - 10 JUNE 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050026-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: June 10, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT : NIC Activity Report for 6-10 June 1983
NIC# 4271-83
10 June 1983
I. DCI/DDCI-Assigned Tasks
NIO At Large (D. Low) began work and made contacts with appropriate
Agency officers on a special project for the DCI regarding the economics
of specific Latin American countries.
NIO/Narcotics accompanied the DDCI to a meeting of the Executive
Committee of the National Border Interdiction System.
NIO/Political & Paramilitary Threats spent most of the week working
on a Central America Strategy Paper in close coordination with Defense
Undersecretary Ikle.
NIO/Strategic Programs and C/ACIS/DI are preparing at the DCI's
request a short paper on two SALT II compliance issues: SS-16 status
and Backfire aircraft production.
II. Interagency Papers
Draft NIEs on key South Asian military issues and ASEAN's prospects
are in the final throes of preparation for an NFIB review on 17 June.
Other estimates nearing the final review process include drafts of
the Colombia drugs SNIE, West Germany NIE, and Warsaw Pact military
reliability NIE.
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III. Of Special Interest This Week
Chairman, NIC, NIO At Large (L. Gordon), and A/NIO/East Asia
participated in the 25th Anniversary Conference of the Harvard Center
for International Affairs on "Global Dilemmas: The World of the 1980s."
VC/NIC (C. Waterman), a 0/USSR and A/NIO/USSR, met
with RAND Middle East expert
to discuss Soviet power
projection in Southwest Asia. VU/NIC also , riefed the Agency, Midcareer
Course on the NIC
25X1
25X1
Acting NI0/Africa attended a debriefing at State of Amb. Harrop
(Kenya).
NIO At Large (L. Gordon) attended the debriefing of the US
delegation to the May 1983 meeting of the ITU Administrative Council;
met with Amb. Robert Ryan on Radio Broadcasting to Cuba; and attended a
board meeting of the Atlantic Council of the US.
NIO At Large (H. Heymann) attended a dinner discussion at the
Carnegie Endowment on "US Foreign Policy in the 1980s" with 25X1
(Georgetown U.), AEI), and 25X1
(Princeton U.) as lead panelists; and met with of Hudson 25X1
Institute to discuss his concept of "The Great Transition." 25X1
believes that all the indicators point to a US in the early stages of a
massive economic revitalization, with high growth rates lasting for the
next 15-20 years.)
NIO At Large (D. Low) attended the mon ncy Nuclear
Export Policy Review Meeting with A/NIO/AL at State;
participated in A/NI0/AL's briefing of HFAC s a ers on recent
developments in the Indian, Pakistani, and Libyan nuclear programs; and
continued making introductory courtesy calls on various Agency officers
as well as of Livermore Labs.
NIO/East Asia discussed technology transfer to China at several NSC
meetings, and with other CIA officers, met with the new CINCPAC, Adm.
Crowe.
NIO/General Purpose Forces chaired an initial experimental
conference of Community analysts working in the GPF area. The meeting
facilitated understanding of the GPF estimates program and surfaced
variations of substantive views on new Soviet ground force
developments. All were enthusiastic about continuing such meetings. (A
summary of the meeting's discussion has been sent to the DCI for
information.)
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NI0/GPF sponsored a 7 June briefing for DIA and CIA analysts by
representatiaves of
project, which is designed to model relative force effectiveness and the
relationship between defense investment and weapons modernization. This
model may have some applicability to related work underway in DIA and
SOYA.
NI0/Latin America chaired a mini-warning meeting of Community
analysts on 10 June to discuss developments in El Salvador -- not so
much the immediate situation as to encourage analysts to look ahead
three to six months; prepared talking points on Central America for a
high-level interagency review of the situation there; attended an ALA-
cnnncnrad cPminar on the current scene in Mexico featuring Prof
and completed his round of introductory calls with visits to
INR, DOD/ISA, the DIO for Latin America, and the recently-established
Central America Joint Intelligence Task Force.
on "The Middle East One Year After the Lebanese War;"
a en e a meeting at State on new initiatives in Lebanon; and prepared
a memo on Syrian options in Lebanon at the DD/I's request.
NIO/Strategic Programs attended a SIG meeting on Defense Policy
regarding NSSD 6-83 on antiballistic missile defense. (He volunteered
to give several briefings and provide recent intelligence publications
on Soviet ABM and high-energy lasers.) He also briefed NSC staffers on
the recent NIE on monitoring capabilities for START and INF. (He will
also be briefing them on NIE 11-3/8-82 and the ABM estimate.)
NIO/S&T and members of TTIC and TTAC met with Don Fortier, NSC
Staff, to give him background information on the PRC technology transfer
issue: NIO/S&T also met with Dr. Jim Wade, USDR&E, to discuss the draft
Soviet R&D estimate, DOD perceptions of technology transfer description,
and a new analytical concept for assessing future Soviet weapons
capabilities; and he chaired an NSC/SIG (Technology Transfer) "Working
Group meeting reviewing government organizations and programs aimed at
stopping unwanted US technology losses to communist countries. The US
foreign counterintelligence and export control enforcement programs were
reviewed.
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25X1
LJA I
25X1
25X1
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A/NIO/USSR-East Europe
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chaired a meeting of NIC-DI analysts on issues.
NIO/Warning chaired the first meeting of the White House Situation
Room/Crisis Management Facility Working Group, which featured a
presentation by Dr. Richard Beal, Special Assistant to the President on
NSDD 95; accompanied Executive Director/Planning Staff,
in a visit to FEMA at their request for initial discussions concerning
what they can use to help trigger their actions during a national
emergency; and chaired a meeting of the National Warning Training
Working Group to review the proposed warning training syllabus.
IV. Future Activities
(Nothing of special interest to report at this time.)
Henry S. Rowen
25X1I
25X1
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SUBJECT: 1VIC Activity Report, 6-10 June 1983
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDIR
1 - SA/IDA
1 - ER
1 - DDI
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - D/AG
1 - Each NIO
1 - NIC/AG
1 - E0/NIC
SECRET
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