YOUR REQUEST (13 DECEMBER 1982) FOR A SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON NICARAGUA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000200040003-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: December 29, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00153R000200040003-3
SECRET
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Hugh Montgomery
Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State
FROM: Henry S. Rowen
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: Your Request (13 December 1982) for a
Special National Intelligence Estimate on Nicaragua
1. As you know, we have just com leted an NFIB-approved Special
National Intelli ence Estimate
2. The National Intelligence Officer for Latin America and his
colleagues here at CIA believe that the most salient question of
interest to State - namely, the survivability of the Nicaraguan regime has been addressed in that Estimate. You will recall the judgment that
"The anti-Sandinista forces . . despite their increased activity, . .
are unlikely to be capable of successful attacks on major Nicaraguan
units for the period of this Estimate" (paragraph 16, page 9). This,
of course, also means they would not seriously threaten Sandinista
control.
3. I would also note, in addition, the State ARA official with a
direct interest in the new Estimate told the NIO/LA he had not yet read
the previous one when making this request. My suggestion, given the
combat between the Nicaraguan government and the anti-Sandinista forces
now occurring daily, we would be in a better position to reconsider the
above judgment in several weeks and would be pleased to reexamine the
value of a SNIE on this topic at this time.
/Vr
State Dept. review completed
Henry S. R
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25X11
25X1.
 ,, s Approved For Release 2008/08/05: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200040003-3
SECRET
SUBJECT: Your Request (13 December 1982) for a Special National
Intelligence Estimate on Nicaragua
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - D/INR
1 - C/NIC
1 - D/ALA
1 - DDI Registry
1 - NIO/LA
Approved For Release 2008/08/05: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200040003-3
 Approved For Release 2008/08/05: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200040003-3
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
THE DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH
WASHINGTON
December 13, 1982
TO CIA - Mr. Henry Rowen
Chairman, National
IntelligenW Council
INR - Hugh Montgomer
FROM `
SUBJECT: Request for SNIE on Nicaragua
The Bureau of Inter-American Affairs has requested a
Special National Intelligence Estimate on the situation in
Nicaragua for the next six months. The assessment should
include an evaluation of the Sandinista military's counter-
insurgency capabilities.
ARA has asked that the assessment include "an analysis
of regime survivability under various forms of pressure:
political, economic, and paramilitary." ARA would like
the SNIE completed in two weeks.
Our analysts are, of course, ready to assist your /
staff in preparing the estimate.
SECRET
OADR
Approved For Release 2008/08/05: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200040003-3