DCI WARNING ASSESSMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000200030030-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2007
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: September 13, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200030030-4
~13 September 1982
SUSPENSE: 15 SEPTEMBER
MEMORANDUM FOR: All NIOs
H.F. Hutchinson, Jr.
Vice Chairman, NIC
SUBJECT . DCI Warning Assessments
1. The DCI has directed the NIC to develop a new series of monthly
warning assessments that will be disseminated to the Washington policy
community and US missions abroad. This product will carry the DCI's
authority and represent his appraisal of the warning outlook over a
period of 60 to 90 days. It will not be coordinated with other NFIB
agencies.
2. The DCI has emphasized that these assessments should be pro-
jective, focusing on the purposes and intentions of foreign actors, on
alternative outcomes, and on the evidence at hand and that needed to
assess probabilities. Assessments will explore potential and actual
waring situations in greater depth and detail than is feasible in either
the DCI Watch Committee Reports or the NIO monthly warning reports.
3. The new,servas will be highly selective--perhaps averaging six
items a month--and will address only those potential developments of
major consequence for US political, security and economic interests.
The emphasis on selectivity and on projections of alternative outcomes
will distinguish this product from standard 'global" intelligence brief-
ings. It will be assumed that consumers are well briefed on current
intelligence information and events. The objective will be to provide
the earliest possible warning of potential surprise and of significant
actions that may affect US interests.
4. Assessments will be based on intelligence reporting to the
extent possible, but projections of alternative outcomes and probability
judgments will necessarily require speculation, particularly in the
early stages of a potential or developing warning situation. Assess-
ments will reflect the personal judgment of NIOs and should not be
limited to consensus views of their community specialists. On occasion,
they should take note of divergent analyses or minority views within the
community. They also should cite particularly cogent field appraisals
from embassies or stations or from foreign intelligence services and
foreign ministries when these views depart from the prevailing consensus
in Washington. Assessments will include, where appropriate, recommen-
dations for additional-field reporting.
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Procedures
5. At the end of the third week of each month, NIOs will submit
drafts of proposed items to the Chairman, NIC. The NIO/W staff will
make independent recommendations. The C/NIC will select those items to
be included in the warning assessment and will consult with the appro-
priate NIOs in preparing final drafts in the last week of the month.
Draft assessments will be reviewed in the DCI's meeting with the NIOs at
the end of the month. The amended text irhat emerges from this review
will then be disseminated.
6. The DCI has requested that a mock-up warning assessment be
prepared as soon as possible. He has indicated that this should include
items on the Middle East (Arabs-Israel),. Iran, Poland and Eastern
Europe, Central America, Mexico, Argentina, Cuba, Namibia, and financial
trouble spots. In view of the DCI's absence from Headquarters for two
weeks beginning 18 September, we should have this mock-up ready by
17 September. NIOs therefore are requested to submit drafts of proposed
items to the C/NIC bS' COB 15 September, following the guidelines in
Paragraphs 2-4 above.
25X1
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SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/07/11: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200030030-4