COMMUNIST CHINA'S IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1955: TRADE AND TRANSPORT INVOLVED (EIC-R1-S5)

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CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3
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RIPPUB
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S
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87
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December 12, 2016
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August 16, 2001
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1
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Publication Date: 
September 6, 1956
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REPORT
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SECRET Y~+ Approved Fo elease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362~R000400030001-3 IAC-D-42/12. 3 6 September 1956 Communist China's Imports and Exports, 1955: Trade and Transport Involved (EIC-RI-S5) 1. The attached report, subject as above, has been received from the Chairman of the EIC in accordance with paragraph C, 2 of his letter to the IAC of 19 March 1956 (IAC-D-42/12, 20 March 1956). This paper is now submitted for IAC approval, following approval b the EIC, 25X1 C 25X1 C Approved For Release 2001/12 CR If P85SO0362ROO0400030001-3 Approved FOi Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 S-:E-C-R-E-T 1O COMMUNIST CHINA'S IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1955: TRADE AND TRANSPORT INVOLVED (EIC-Rl-S5) Approved by EIC Working Group 29 August 1956 Approved by Economic Intelligence Committee 6 September 1956 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 25X1C Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For lease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO036M00400030001-3 :Table of Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i I. Summary of Major Developments During 1955 . . 1 II. Over-all Values of Trade . . .. . . . .. . 6 A. Communist China's Total Trade . . . . 6 I. The Level and Direction of Trade. . . . .. 6 2. The Balance of Trade .. . . . . . . . . 7 Tradewith.Bloc Countries . .. . . . . 1. Trade with the USSR . . . . . 8 2. Trade with the European Satellites . .. . . 9 3. Trade with Far Eastern Satellites,. 9 C. Trade with Non.-Bloc. Countries . . . . . . . 10 1. General . . . . . ... . . . . 10 2. Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 a. Recorded. Imports . . . . . . . 10 b. Unrecorded Imports . . . . . . . . . . 15 Exports . .. .. . . . . . . .. . .. . . . 18 a. Recorded Exports . .. .. . . . . 18 b. Unrecorded Exports . . . . . . . ... 20 III, Value. and Volume of Principal Trade Movements . 25 ,A. Total Chinese Coroun.ist Trade . 25 1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 25 2. Total Imports . . . . . . . . . . .. 25 3. Total Exports . . . . . . . . . . 25 - iii. S E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved ForQwlease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362 00400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Table of Contents Continued Page B. Trade with Non-Bloc Countries . . . . . . . . 28 1. Imports 28 30 2. Exports . . . . . . . . . . . C. Trade with the Soviet Bloc . 32 1. Trade with the USSR . . . . . . . . . . . 32 a. Imports from. the USSR . . . . .. . . . 32 b. Exports to the USSR . 34 2. Trade with the European Satellites . . 36 Total Trade . . . . . . . . ... . 36 b. Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 c. Exports . . . . . . . . .. . . 38 3. Trade with the Far Eastern'Satellites . 40 a. Trade with North Korea . . . . . . . 4O b. Trade .with North Vietnam . . . 40 c. Trade with Mongolia . . . . . 41 IV. Transport and Transport Services . . . . . . 42 A. Ocean Shipping . . . . . . 42 1. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 42 2. Non-Bloc Shipping Review . . . . . . . 44 a. Arrivals . . . . . . . ... .. . . 44 b. Departures . . . . . . . . . 46 3. Bloc Shipping, Review . . . . . . . . . 47 a. Arrivals . .. . . . .. . . . . . . 47 b. Departures . . . . . . . ... . 48 c. Routes Employed . .. . . . . . . . 48 Utilization of 'Capacity of Shipping Engaged in Communist China's Seaborne Trade iv - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For (ease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362FM0400030001-3 Table of Contents Continued B. Assistance to the Sino-Soviet Bloc by C. Non-Bloc Shipping and Shipping; Services . . . . 1. Significance of Non-Bloc Shipping,in the China Trade . . . . . . . . . 2. Bunkering . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. Non-Bloc Deliveries of Merchant Ships to the Sino-Soviet Bloc . . . . . . . . . 4+. Non-Bloc Repairs to Soviet Bloc Vessels . Interior Transport Connections for Communist China Ts Foreign Trade . . . . . . . . . . . 52 52 54 55 56 1. Interior Transport Connections Utilized During 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 2. Significant Developments During 1955 and .Early 1956 . . . . . . .. . . ... . . . 60 a. Railroads . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . 60 b. Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 c. Inland Waterway . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 d. Air . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . 62 Appendix A. The Value and Direction of Trade . . . . . . 63 B. The Composition of Communist China's Imports, 1953-55 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 C. Communist China's Exports . . . . . . . . 68 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362F0400030001-3 Ocean Cargoes Arriving at or Departing from Communist Chinese Ports 2. Summary of Communist China's Estimated Imports,. 1955 2 3. Surmazy of Communist China.'s Estimated Exports, 1955 3 4. Recapitulationo.f Estimated Value and Distribution' of 'Communist China's Foreign Trade,. 1954 and.1955 7 5. Estimated Balances of Chinese Imports and Exports, 1955 8 6. Estimated Chinese Communist Trade with Far Eastern Satellites 9 Value of'Recorded Chinese Communist Imports from Non- Comniunist Countries, 1955 11 Page Value of Semi-Annual Recorded Chinese Communist Imports from Various Non.-Communist Areas., 1954-1955 13 Estimated Commodity Composition of Recorded Chinese Communist Imports from Non-Communist Countries, 1950-1955 11i 10. Transshipments of Western Goods through Gydtia 11. Value of Semi-Annual Recorded Chinese Communist Exports to Various Non-Communist Areas, 195+-1955 Value of Recorded Chinese Communist Exports to Non- Communist Countries,, 1955 13. Summary of Communist China's Estimated Trade and Trade Movements (By Estimated Actual Origin and Destination of Shipments) 14. Communist Chinese and Macao Recorded Imports from Hong. Kong by Volume, 1955 15. Communist Chinese Recorded Exports to Hong Kong, by Volume, 1955 19 26 29 31 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For RJase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362FW0400030001-3 S-E-C-R -E -T Tables (Continued) Page 16. Approximate Distribution of Estimated. Overland Imports from USSR, by Type of Commodity and by Means of Transport, 1955 17. Approximate Distribution of Estimated Overland Exports.to USSR., by Means of Transport, 1955 36 18. Communist Chinese Seaborne Imports. originating from European.Satellites, 1955 37 19. Total Direct plus: Transshipped Communist Chinese Seaborne Exports to European Satellites, 1955 39 20. Total Arrivals in Communist China, 1951 through 1955 42 21. Arrivals in 1955 of Liners Owned by Eleven. Western Companies 45 22. The Changing Pattern of Soviet Bloc Arrivals 48 23. POL Tanker Shipments to Soviet Far East and to Communist China,. 1952-1955 -9 24. Utilization of Shipping Capacity Involved in Communist Chinese Seaborne Trade, 1955 51 25. Ships and Services ,Acquired by the Soviet Bloc from the West during 1955 56 26. Percentage Distribution of Chinese Trade, 1950-55, In Percent of Total Trade .65 27. Estimated Foreign Trade of Communist China, 1950-55 65 28. Estimated Value of Communist Chinese Imports and Exports, 1950-55 66 29. Commodity Composition of Communist Chinese Exports, 1950, 1953 and 1955 69 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R (400030001-3 Sla,ipping :Graphs. Merchant Ship Arrivals in Communist China, 1951-1955 Merchant Ship Arrivals in Communist China, by Country of Registry, 1955 Origin of Merchant Ship Arrivals in Communist China, 195+-1955 Merchant Ship Departures from Communist China, 1955 Destination.. of 'Merchant Ship Departures.. from Communist China, 195+-1955 Non-Biac Merchant Ships in Chinese Communist Coastal. Trade, 1955 Following fage 44 46 4.6 53 5o,Be Inserted in Final Printed copy On1f Illustrations Figure 1 Estimated Imports by Communist China from Non-Bloc Countries Figure 2 - Soviet Bloc and Non-Bloc Registered Shipping Arriving in Communist Chinese Ports, January 1951 - December 1955 Maps Nap 1 - Communist China: Railroads and Selected Roads .NOTE ' ON CLASSIFICATION The over-all classification of this report is SECRET. Some pages, however, are classified CONFIDENTIAL and are so designated. Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For Flease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362FiIO0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T COMMUNIST CHINA'S IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1955: TRADE AND TRANSPORT INVOLVED 1. Summary of Major Developments During 1955 A. The Level of Trade (see Tables 2 and 3, pp. 2.and 3 ff..) Communist China's foreign trade in 1955 is estimated at approximately $4,485 million as compared with $3,450 million in 1954 - an overall in- crease of thirty per cent. Of this total, however, $620 million is believed to have represented the acquisition. under a special loan from the USSR-of facilities and military equipment already physically located in.China"prior to 1955 -- therefore not reflecting any current movement of .goods. Another $120 million. consisted of exports under Chinese aid programs to North Korea and the Viet Minh. Only the remaining $1,865 million of imports and. $1,880 million of exports represented current commercial trade. Trade with all areas (except for Chinese aid to North. Korea) increased over 1954 levels. The tonnage volume of Communist Chinats trade in 1955 is estimated to have totalled over 13,pillion metric tons, made up of some .4.2 million tons of imports (primarily machinery, petroleum, and other in- dustrial materials) and 8.9,million tons of exports (primarily agricul- tural products and minerals). Of this total tonnage, about 6..6 million. tons were seaborne and some 605 million tons were shipped overland. A,comparison of total ocean cargo movements from 1952 through 1955 shows a steady year-by-year increase: Ocean Cargoes Arriving at or Departing from Communist Chinese Port s 1952-1955 (Thousand Metric Tons.) 1952 1953 1954 1955 (EIC-R1-S2) (EIC-Rl-83) (EI C R1s4) (E.I-S5) Seaborne Imports 1,098 1,52 1,583 .2,004 Seaborne Exports 1,926 3,288 3,550 4,585 Total Seab?rne Cargoes 3,024 4,814 5,133 6,589 a/ Includes Chinese imports moving by small craft and overland to ,Communist China from Hong Kong and/or Macao - since most of these had arrived in the Far East by sea. - 1 - S-E=C-R-EST Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Ry ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362F16U0400030001-3 Figure 1 and Figure 2 are the usual graphics which. will be inserted in the final printed edition of the EIC-Rl Series. Figure 1 "ESTIMATED IMPORTS BY COMMUNIST CHINA FROM NON-BLOC COUNTRIES, 1951-1955" Figure 2 - "SOVIET BLOC AND NON-BLOC REGISTERED SHIPPING. ARRIVING IN COMMUNIST CHINESE PORTS., JANUARY 1951 - DECEMBER 1955" Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/ /$14 -Chq.4dDP85S00362F4O90400030001-3 Summary of Communist China's Estimated Imports 1955 Volume of Shipments (Thousand Metric Tons) Seaborne Overland Total (Million US, ) Non-Communist Recorded; 1. Western Europe & Western Hemisphere 617 617 119 2..Hong Kong 170 170 33 3. Japan 200 200 30 4. All other recorded 290 290 133 Subtotal, recorded 1,283 1,283 315 Unrecorded: 5. Western Europe 200 200 60 6. Macao 11 11 2.5 7. Hong Kong 7 5 8. Southeast Asia 57 57 11' Subtotal, unrecorded 275 275 76 Adjustment.: 9.. Additional value attributed by Chinese Communists to their Free World trade 29 Total, non-Communist 1,552 1,552 420 Communist 10. USSR 32 1,84o 1,872 940 11. USSR Special Loan 620 b/ 12. European Satellites 420 180 600 450 13. North Korea & Mongolia 200 200 40 14. North Vietnam 20 20 15 Total, Communist 452 2 24o 2,692 Grand Total 2, 2 485 b/ a Some of these imports moved overland but most of the commodities involved had arrived i the Far East by sea. b/ Anestimated.1620 million of facilities and military equipment acquired by China under a special loan were physically located in. China prior to 1955, and therefore did not contribute any tonnage movements to the volume of Chinese import traffic. - 2 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362FW60400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 3 Summary of Communist China's Estimated Exports 1955 Volume of Shipments (Thousand Metric Tons) V l a ue of Trade Seaborne Overland -Total (Millions US, ) Non-Communist 1. Western Europe and Western Hemisphere 370 ' 370 121 2. Hong Kong 2/ 133 858 991 107 . 3 Macao 65 W 65 5 4. Japan 1, 221 11221 85 5. All other recorded 161 161 102 6. Unrecorded exports 5 7. Adjustment for add- itional value attri- buted by Chinese Com- munists to their Free World trade Subtotal, Non- Communist 2,675 133 2,788 455 Communist 8. USSR 615 2,645 3,260 920 9. European Satellites 1,260 c,/ 295 1,555 450 10. North Korea and Mongolia 1,200 1,200 125 11. North Vietnam 35 25 .60 50 Subtotal, Communist 1,910 4,165 .6,075 1,545 Grand Total 4,585 .4,298 8 883 2,000 a/ Includes 633,000 tons in vessels under 1,000 gross registered tons (GRT). Exports to Macao moved largely in junks and launches. c/ Includes an estimated 547,000 tons which reached the European Satellites through Western European ports. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RW0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T The trend toward increased Bloc participation in communist China's foreign trade continued in l9555when the Bloc accounted for more than four-fifths of total Chinese trade. Total trade with the Free World increased more than 25% over 1954, however, (see Figure 1) ands. reflected'%p a rise in unrecorded as well as in recorded. imports. Unrecorded imports in 1955 were about $76 million, as compared with an estimate of $50 million for 1954 ($93 million for 1953). Chinese Communist efforts to.obtain strategic goods through smuggling, channels v'iaKongKong and Macao noticeably slackened in both 1954 and 1955 as compared with earlier years. On the other hand transshipments of strategic goods of Western European origin through Bloc ports in Eastern Europe apparently increased nearly one-half in 1955 as compared with 1954. These unrecorded imports represented about 17 percent of Com- munist China's total imports from non-Bloc countries. B. Transport and Transport Services 1. Shipping There was an increase of almost 20% in the gross registered tonnage of the ships arriving in China in 1955,, compared tp';1954. Com, munist China continued to be heavily dependent on non-Bloc shipping, which accounted for 81% of the tonnage of all 1955 arrivals. (See Figure 2) Slightly over half of the non-Bloc tonnage was under British flag; another quarter was Japanese, Dutch and Norwegian; and the re- mainder was divided among thirteen other Free World. countries. Bloc shipping arrivals were composed of Soviet, Polish, and Czech ships (60%, 35% and 5% of the tonnage respectively). Chinese ships carried no ocean-borne trade except a small export to North Vietnam. China, however, shares control with Poland over the services provided by Polish vessels on the China run, although the details of the particular arrange- ments involved are difficult to determine. The general pattern of non-Bloc shipping movements was relatively little changed in 1955 over 1954. There were, however, noticeable changes in the 1955 pattern of Bloc shipping arrivals, particularly a sharp increase in the number of tankers from Europe which unloaded P.O.L. in the Soviet Far East before proceeding in ballast to.China to pick up return cargoes. Thus 59% of Bloc ships arriving in China came from the Soviet Far East, but .only 39% of Bloc ships leaving China went to that area. The shipping tonnage in Communist China's foreign trade during 1955:by geographic area of origin and destination of voyages' was S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For RaLease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R 0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T distributed substantially as indicated in the following table:- ORIGIN AND DESTINATIONS OF SKIPPING TONNAGE IN CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE, 1955 Geographic Area Origins Destinations (Per cent of Total (Per cent of Total G.R.T.) G.R.T.) Western Europe 27 29 Japan 24 20 Hong Kong 17 20 Bloc Europe 9 13 U.S.S.R. (Far East) 6 7 Other 17 11 . 100 100 2. Inland Transport Connections Railroads continued to carry over 95% of China's overland foreign trade. The Sungari River, a few roads and air transport carried the small remaining balance. There have been two significant develop- ments during 1955 and early 1956. The completion of the trans-Mongolian railroad represents a valuable addition to the facilities for the movement of trade between China and the U.S.S.R. The rehabilitation of railroads in North Vietnam has improved transport connections between that area and.China. -5 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362ROd0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T II. Over-all Values of Trade A. Communist China's Total Trade 1. The Level and Direction of Trade (1954 and 1955) The magnitude of Communist China's foreign trade had been estimated prior to last year largely from Communist trade announce- ments, which had usually been stated in percentages and had never been clearly defined. In July, 1955, however, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Trade announced that the value of China's total imports and ex- ports in 1954 was 8.487 billion yuan. This was the first time the Chinese Communists had announced an absolute value for their total foreign trade. Converting this yuan value into U. S. dollars through use of a cross-rate with the pound sterling, results in an evaluation for total Chinese trade in 1954 of $3,450 million. Since the Chinese have stated at various times that 80 percent of their foreign trade in 1954 was with Bloc countries and 20 percent with Free World nations, the corresponding values of 1954 trade would have been $2,760 million with the Bloc and $690 million with the Free World. During 1956 the Chinese Cozmmunists.have made several announce- ments relating 1955 trade to levels in 1954 or earlier years. These in- cluded statements that total trade increased 30% over 1954 and that trade with the Free World increased by more than one--fourth over 1954- In addition they announced a percentage relationship between trade with the USSR in 1955 and corresponding trade in 1950 (in terms, apparently, of the yuan value of trade on current account -- i.e., excluding any spe- cial'aid credits). These announcements indicate a total value of 1955 .trade of $4,485 million,, a value for trade with the Free World of about $875 million, and a value for trade with the USSR of $2,480 million. The Chinese have not given any indication of the distribution of their remaining trade (i.e., $1,130 million) as between the European Satellites and the Far Eastern Satellites. The trade turnover with the Far Eastern. Satellites may, however, be independently estimated at $230 million on the basis of intelligence, including a number of official announcements. (Much of this trade consisted of deliveries by Communist China under aid programs which have been rather fully reported by North Korea and North Vietnam,) The remaining $900 million, therefore, pre- sumably represents trade with the European Satellites. In summary, the value and distribution of Communist China's foreign trade in 1955 as compared with 1954 are estimated for principal trading.areas as follows: Revised from R1-S , see Appendix$.p. 63 ff. S-E- C-R-E- T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362f`!df0400030001-3 Table 4 Recapitulation of Estimated Value and Distribution of Communist China's Foreign Trade 1-954 and 1955 Millions Percent US Dollars of Total 1952 Millions Percent US Dollars of Total Total Trade $3,450 100 $4,485 100 Less Non-Bloc Trade -69o -20 -18172 -19i5 Trade with Bloc T62,7 0 70 - 3 1100 Of which: USSR. 1,830 53 2,480 55.3 Far Eastern Satellites 240 7 230 5.2 European Satellites 690 20 goo 20 2. The Balance of Trade The Chinese have made no statement regarding their trade balances in 1955. Although ordinary trade with the Bloc under barter agreements is estimated to have been roughly in balance, trade under long-term. credit and aid agreements between China and the Bloc would have resulted in a Chinese export deficit of approximately $520 million. In trade with the Free World, however, China is estimated to have had an export surplus of some $35 million, leaving a total net export deficit of about $485 million. The resulting estimates of total imports and exports are $2,485 million and $2,000 million, respectively. Although this estimate of the overall trade balance is necessarily rough and tentative, the level of exports indicated is not inconsistent with Chinese Communist press reports of-their trade activities and of the volume of exports of their major agricultural commodities. _7- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For R ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R 60400030001-3 S-E-C-R--E-T Table 5 Estimated Balances of Communist Chinese Imports and Exports, 1955 Million US $ orts ports Total Trade USS;?t $1A 56Q. $ 920 $2,480 European Satellites 1450 450 goo Far Eastern Satellites ~ 175 b/ 230 Total Bloc 2,065 1,M 3 10 Free World 420 455 815 Grand Total $2485 $z000 + a~ Includ.es.Chinese acquisition of facilities and-military equipment as specified in their 1955 budget. Includes Chinese grants in aid to North.Korea and North Vietnam. B. Trade with Bloc Countries 1. Trade with the USSR It is estimated that Communist Chinese trade with the USSR in. 1955 amounted to $2,480 million, of which acquisitions of 'military equipment and facilities under a loan from the USSR probably accounted for about one quarter of the total.. In presenting the 1955 budget, the Chinese Minister of Finance stated that the increase in budgeted income under Credits, Loans, Insurance & Other was mainly because the USSR, in addition to turning over to China without compensation the naval base at Port Arthur, also trans- ferred to China "much. military equipment in the form of a loan." In June, 1956, the Chinese Minister of Finance presented a report on the 1955-56 budgets which indicated that these total Soviet loans were $620 million. The remaining 1955 Sino.Soviet trade of $1,860 million is believed to.have represented commercial trade. During 1955 Communist China may have utilized about $50 million under the industrial loan of $130 million which was extended in October, 1954, and probably made a payment of $30 million to the USSR as. required by the terms of the industrial loan of 1950. It is estimated, therefore, that Sino-Soviet commercial trade may have shown. a Chinese import balance of $20 millionnwith imports from the USSR of $940 million and exports to the USSR of $920 million. S-EAC.R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362Fb400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T 2. Trade with the European Satellites Although no specific announcement has been made as to the pro- portion of Chinese 1955 trade which was with the European Satellites, specific indications have been given as to the value of over-all trade, and as to the portions thereof accounted for by the Free World, the USSR and the Far Eastern Satellites (see page 6 above) - leaving .a residual of $900 million attributable to trade with the European Satellites. This figure would represent about the same proportion of total trade as in 1954 (i.e., about 20%). In the absence of any particular indications otherwise, it is presumed that this trade was approximately in over-all balance between imports and exports -- i.e., $450 million each way. As to the distribution of this trade, various trade announcements. of the individual satellite nations suggest that Chinese 1955 trade with East Germany totalled about $250 million and that with Czechoslovakia about $300 million. Trade with Poland, Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria would have made up the remaining,$350 million- 3. Trade with Far Eastern Satellites It is estimated that Coxrmmnist Chinese trade with Far Eastern. Satellites during 1955 was about $230 million, representing a slight de- cline from 1954. Chinese aid deliveries to North Korea in-1955 were announced by the latter as $90 million ($30 million lower than that announced for 1954). Barter trade with North Korea is reported to have increased over 1954 and is estimated for 1955 as $25 million in each direction. During 1955 estimated.Qhinese trade with North Vietnam plus deliveries of Chinese aid totalled about $6p million, of which $15 million were imports and $45 million exports. Communi.st.Chinese trade with the Mongolian. Republic, while increasing, is still small and is estimated for 1955 as $15 million in each direction. Table 6 Estimated Chinese Communist Trade with Far Eastern Satellites 1955 Million us ,$ orts Exports North Korea 25 115 North Vietnam 15 45 Mongolian. Republic 15 15 55 175 -9- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362F0400030001-3 C. Trade with Non-Bloc Countries From the trade returns of non-Communist countries, adjusted for shipping lags and c.i.f.,costs, it is estimated that Communist China's recorded trade with the Free World in 1955 included imports valued at $315 million .c.i.f. and exports valued at $420 million f.o.b../ In addition, intelligence data, indicates that Communist Chinae imported from. the Free World some'$76 million of unrecorded imports and exported some $5 million of unrecorded exports not reflected in the pub- lished trade statistics of non-Bloc countries, raising total imports from. the Free World to,$391 million end total exports.to $425 million. This estimated total value of $816 million accounts for about 93 percent of the value apparentl ' indicated for Chinese Communist trade with the Free World ($875 million by official Chinese Communist announce- ments. The difference is small, and falls well within the range of error to be expected from methods of valuation of Free World trade and/or the computation of dollar values from official Chinese Communist trade data. It is not believed, therefore, that there was any substantial additional volume of Free World trade with Communist China which has not been iden- tified in Free World trade returns or in intelligence on unrecorded trade. 2. orts a. Recorded Forts The recorded value of Chinese Communist imports from non- Bloc countries in 1955 rose to $315 million (see Table 7) as compared with $273 million in 1954,.$280 million in. 1953 and $2.50. million in 1952. Imports rose sharply in the second half of 1955, following.a rise in the value of exports., suggesting a trend toward a higher level of total imports in 1956 -- particularly from the Near East and South and Southeast Asia. Since all transport services beyond China's borders are under non- Chinese-Communist ownership, the Chinese must pay shipping charges to their own borders.on all imports, and receive. only the net value of exports .f.o.b. their own borders. Pre-Communist trade statistics of China were calculated on this basis and it is believed the Com- munists have continued the same practice. Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RO0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 7 Value of Recorded Communist Chinese Imports from Non-Communist Countries a/ 1955 Thousand US 1955, 1954 Jan -Jun Jul Dec Total Total EUROPE, WESTERN IRI$1SPHERE AND SOUTH AFRICA Argentina 1,112 38:. 1,150 1,495 Austria 954 1,740 2,694 445 Belgium-Luxembourg,.. 110.89 4,346 5,435 426 Brazil 128 4,544 4,672 2,938 Denmark 25 31 56 185 Finland 7,455 7,151 14,606 3,390 France 3,035 3,403 .6,438 8,379 West Germany 14,461 14,027 28,488 20,554 Italy 2,382 3,459 5,841 5,285 Netherlands 1,256 1,535 2,791 1,565 Norway 24 11 35 28 Sweden 812 734 1,546 632 Switzerland (c.i.f.) 7,863 2,705 10,568 41085 Union of South Africa 711 332 1,043 n.a. United Kingdom 11,795 1o,961d 22,756~~ d 18,170a ~ United States 0 f Canada 1,043 1. 1,057 47 10 percent adjustment for c.i.f. (except Switzerland) 4,628 5,233 9,861 6,35.4 Subtotal 58,773 60,267 119,040 73,984 * Footnotes for Table 7 follow.~on page 12. S-E-.C-R?E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362 0400030001-3 S-.E-C-R-E-T Table 7 Value of Recorded Communist 1xPorts from Non-Communist Countries a 1955 (Continued) Country Thousand US 1955 1954 Jan~.Jun Jul-Dec Total Total Australia 3,528 3,002 6,530 3,421 Burma 6,052 7,908 13,960 22 Ceylon 8,761 14,053 22,814 48,429 Egypt 7,588 15,493 23,081 11,389 Hong, Ong 20,958 10,185 31,143 67,154 Ind.i a/ 7,187 8,642 15,829 5,798 Indonesia 2,907 3,314 6,221 1,014 Japan 14,592 13,960 28,552 19,109 Malaya 2,3 6 1,702 6,561 New Zealand -Pakistan 2 7,414 27,111 34,525 26,189 5 percent adjustment for c.i.f. 4,067 5,281 9,348 9,457 Subtotal 85,409 110,891 196,300 198,593 Total 144,182 1712158 315,340 272,577 As derived from published statistics of the non-Communist countries concerned. The above table differs from Rl--S4 in 1954 data by the addition of estimated trade with New Zealand. Figures for countries of Western Europe, the Western Hemisphere, and the Union.of South Africa are based on the assumption of a 2-months voyage. They represent recorded exports for November 1954 through October 1955. Figures for Australia, Burma, Ceylon, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaya, India, New Zealand and Pakistan are based on the assumption of a 1-month voyage -- i,e., they represent recorded exports for December 1954 through November 1955. Figures for the remaining countries are exports for the months shown in the table. All sta- tistics were converted at the official exchange rates? exc pt Hong Kong figures which were converted at an average rate of HK~ = US$.1712 for the second half.. Approved For Release 200 1/12/04 A W-& 5S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S003621 0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T c. Includes imports into Tibet during 1954 and the first half of 1955? Data on imports into Tibet for the second half of 1955 are incomplete. d. Represents U.S. shipments to Communist China under Exceptions pro- cedures. For 1955 these shipments represented printed matter, far 1954 these shipments (including an auto) were for use of a diplomatic mission of a friendly foreign country. The value of recorded direct imports from Western Europe increased by three-fifths over 1954, but this increase was offset by a nearly equal decline in imports from Hong Kong. Since imports from Hong Kong had.c.onsisted largely of transshipments of Western European products, these statistics reflect primarily changes in the methods of shipment, rather than in the levels of trade. Imports from Japan, after registering a sharp increase in the second half of 1954, remained at this level throughout 1955. Imports from other countries of the Near East and Asia, particularly from Burma, Egypt, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia, increased sharply over 1954 levels, most of the trade occurring in the second half of the year. These trends-are shown in the following tabulation: Value of Semi-Annual Recorded Communist Chinese Imports from Various Non-Communist Areas 1954-55 Million US ,$ Western Europe & Western Hemisphere Hong Kong Japan Near East 1954 January- June 37 33 5 65 July-Dec ember 37 37 15 44 1955 January-June 59 22 15 48 July-December 60 11 15 82 The commodity composition of Communist China's recorded imports from the Free World changed somewhat in 1955 as compared with previous years. Imports of drugs, crude rubber, and metals and machinery de- clined to or below the lowest levels recorded in the previous five years. But see comment :on pp. 14 and 15..ff: - 13 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For R ease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362P 0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Imports of cotton and chemicals increased, the latter category, con- sisting largely of fertilizer and industrial chemicals, reaching the highest level recorded since 1950- Imports of other items also in- creased sharply, the major imports in. the group consisting of wool, textile yarns and fabrics, foodstuffs, coconut oil, paper, and jute. The trends in the commodity composition of Communist China's imports from the Free World are shown in the following tabulation: Table 9 Estimated Commodity Composition of Recorded Communist Chinese Imports from. Non-Communist Countries 1950-55 Million US Year Cotton Rubber Drugs Chemicals Metals, Machinery Other 1950 95 61 20 35 125 78 1951 41 110 25 65. 110 93. 1952 108 23. 25 40 20 34 1953 16 54 40 55 70 45 195+ 42 47 20 80 25 59 1955 75 . 23 / 10 90 20 97 a But see comment below pp. 14 and 15 fu 4,a Imports from Western Europe, Hong Kong, and Japan consisted largely of industrial goods and raw materials. Chemicals (including fertilizers, dyes, drugs, and industrial chemicals) accounted for 50 percent by value of the imports from Western. Europe, 70 percent of the imports from Hong Kong, and 63 percent.of the imports from Japan. Textile fibers and fabrics accounted for 17 percent, 11 percent, and 21 percent, respectively, of the value of imports from these three areas.; metals and manufactures accounted for 9 percent, 7 percent, and 11 percent. Imports. from Asia, Oceania, and the Near East, on the other hand, consisted largely of agricultural products. Cotton consti- itu:ted;the bi;1k of imports from Pakistan and Egypt, while imports from.. Ceylon consisted chiefly of crude rubber. (The apparent decline in rubber imports from -14 S-E--C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362ROF10400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Ceylon results from the fact that, of the 50,000 tons scheduled for 1955 under the five-year rice-rubber agreement, about 5,000 tons arrived in the last month of 195+ and about 15,000 tons in. the first quarter of 1956, so that the 1955 returns included only 30,000 tons of this contract rubber plus. 1,000 tons of non=contract rubber..) Rice constituted the bulk of imports from Burma, amounting to nearly 100,000 tons valued at $12 million (excluding the additional 50,000 tons purchased by Counist China but shipped direct to Ceylon in partial fulfillment of the Sing- Ceylon rice-rubber agreement). Imports from. Indonesia consisted chiefly of $3, million of coconut oil and $2 million of sugar; while imports from Malaya consisted almost entirely of coconut oil. Imports from Australia were largely wool tops, and the main imports from India were gunny bags and raw cotton. b. Unrecorded Imports (1) Types of Unrecorded Imports Evasions of CBINCOM and other official controls typically take the form of false declarations of ultimate destination, thus facili- tating the shipment of controlled goods to Communist China by circuitous routes. When controls are circumvented or evaded in. this manner0 the .exports involved are not identified in the trade statistics of the country of origin as.exports to Communist China. In Western Europe this form. of evasion typically takes place through, the export of goods controlled by CHINCOM (but not by COCOM) agreements to a free port --where transshipment of such goods is not controlled -- followed by reconsignment to Gdynia where, in turn"' the goods are transferred to a Soviet Bloceflag or chartered ship loading for China. In such cases, the original export from the country of origin to the country of transshipment is ordinarily authorized on the explicit understanding that the latter country, or some other friendly country, is to be the final destination. At the port of transshipment, however, these goods are taken over by firms specializing in the re- direction of controlled goods to Poland. In some cases these indirect shipments are facilitated by the intervention of a trader in a third country, who may finance the transaction buying from. the country of origin and selling to China -- without himself handling the goods. The goods are exported from the country of origin ostensibly for the intermediary, but are actually consigned to a transshipment firm in a free port which will forward them, at the intermediary's request to Poland in transit fort.China. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362FZA60400030001-3 In other instances, goods have been consigned from non- Communist exporting countries directly to Poland, whence they were re- directed to China. This technique is, of course, applicable only to goods which are not embargoed by the exporting country for shipment to European countries of the Bloc. In these cases the Polish. port may serve merely as the point of transshipment, or the Poles may actually import the goods for later re-export to China. There is clear evidence that the circumvention of controls by such transshipment in Polish ports is practiced on a substantial scale. The extent to which Soviet Bloc countries may import goods from the. West for later re-export to China cannot be assessed. The techniques described above are used principally in North Sea ports. There is some evidence that they are also being used in Mediterranean ports and that similar devices are in use for overland shipments to China from.. Switzerland via Czechoslovakia, and from West Germany via East Germany. Other devices in use for the circumvention of controls include:, false, inadequate, or misleading description of goods destined for Communist China; false declarations of destination by,.vessels sailing for Co=nudist China; and local smuggling. There have also been. reports of illegal use of import certificates and of fabricated (dual) manifests. (2) Transshipment..s of Western Commodities through Soviet Bloc Countries Analysis of ship cargoes and other intelligence indicate that substantial amounts of iron and steel and of other goods in CHINCOM controlled categories were sold and shipped to Communist China but were ,not so recorded in. the trade returns of Western European countries. Cargo"- estimates, based on the general composition. of all cargoes and the known origins of over three-fourths of the shipments, indicate that about 165,000 tons of. iron and steel and about 35,000 tons,of other commodities in.CHINCOM controlled categories represented goods of Western origin which were transshipped to China via Eastern European ports (principally Gdynia) during 1955. These tonnages, accordingly, represent a part of the unrecprded 1955 imports of Communist China from Western Europe. On the basis of estimated average prices, these transshipped 200,000 tons are. valued at $57 million, made up of $28 million for iron and steel and $29 million fort nonferrous metals, chemicals, petroleum instruments and other commodities in controlled categories. - 16 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For RQjpase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362FWW400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Transshipments of Western Goods through. Gdynia Volume Value Tons (000 US $) POL 2,000 $ 120 Iron and steel 165,000 28,000 Nonferrous Metals 20,000 16,000 General industrial machinery 3,000 7,280 Chemicals and Drugs 10,Q00 8,600 2000 60 000 (3) Unrecorded Trade From Honk Tong There is still no firm intelligence on the volume of smuggling from Hong Kong to China by small craft and overland, either directly or via Macao. Intelligence suggests that such. smuggling activities declined in 1953 and 195+, This down-ward trend continued during most of 1955, but increased again toward the end of the year as. the Chinese Communists apparently sought to secure commodities quickly principally POL - in order to supply the Viet Minh. It is estimated, therefore, that the volume of smuggling during 1955 remained at 7,000 tons., or the same level as in 1951+,.but that the value declined to about $2.5 million because of changed composition. (f+) Unrecorded Trade from Macao There are no published official trade statistics on Macao's exports to Communist China in 1955. Such exports appear to have declined sharply from those of previous years, when strategic commodities were carried via Macao by Portuguese vessels. Such traffic appears to have ended in 1955? In 1955, Hong Kong's recorded exports to Macao totalled 70,000 tons valued at approximately $10 million. Of these exports,, strategic goods amounted in value to slightly more than. $1 million, up to one-half of which may have been re-exported to Communist China. In. addition, official unpublished information from Macao indi- cated that exports of non,-strategic goods to Communist China in 1954 approximated 7,000 tons valued at $2 million, and it is believed that 1955 exports may have been of similar magnitude. .. 17 - S+E-0-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For F% ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362RQp0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T (5) Unrecorded Trade from Southeast Asia Unrecorded shipments of 7,000 tons of rubber)( from Indonesia to Communist Chin J valued at $6 million, are known to have occurred in 1955. These shipments were ostensibly exported to another destination, but were actually delivered to Communist China. During 1955, Communist China imported about 50,000 tons of rice from. Burma which were resold to Ceylon and actually moved directly from Burma to Ceylon on Chinese account. This rice, valued at $5 million, appeared on Burmese trade returns as an export to Ceylon rather than as an export to Communist China, but it is believed that the Chinese Communists probably recorded it as. both an import from Burma and. a re-export to Ceylon. (6) Recapitulation Communist China's total unrecorded imports in 1955 are therefore estimated as follows: Metric Tons Million US $ Transshipments, Western Europe 200,000 60.0 From Hong Kong 7, 000 2.5 From Macao 11,000 2.5 From Southeast Asia M-20-00 11.0 2 .z oo 76.0 3. :arts a. Recorded Exports Communist China's exports to the Free World recorded by non- Bloc countries rose sharply in 1955 to. $420 million (see Table 11), as compared with $297 million in 1954, $323 million in 1953, and $270 million in 1952. The exports showed a stable trend during the year, reaching nearly $206 million in the first half and over $214 million in the second half of 1955. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For R & ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362FW0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Exports to Hong Kong and the industrial nations of Western. Europe and Japan rose sharply in 1955, accounting for almost all of the increase. Of exports to other countries, there was a decline in the direct exports of rice to Ceylon, but this was. offset by generally increased exports to other countries of the Near East and Asia. These trends are shown in the following tabulation; Value of Semi.'Annual Recorded Communist Chinese Exports. to Various Non-Commmist Areas 1954-55 Million US Western Europe & Western Hemisphere Hong Kong Japan.. Near East Total 1954 January-June 40 23 17 51 131 July-December 47 44 22 52 165 1955 January-June 61 48 38 59 206 July-December 60 59 39 56 214 Exports to non-Communist countries consisted about 45 percent, by value, of foodstuffs (including rice, other cereals, vege- table oils for food use, eggs, fruits, vegetables, pulses, and tea), 33 percent of oilseeds and other agricultural raw materials (such as textile fibers, essential oils, skins and pelts, tung oil, and miscellaneous crude. materials), and 22 percent of a variety of miscellaneous goods (mainly ores, minerals and products of light industry). Western Europe and the Western Hemisphere received nearly 30 percent, by value,. of all exports to non-Communist. countries., of which about one-fifth. represented foodstuffs and another three-fifths oilseeds and other agricultural. raw materials. Somewhat over 25 percent of all recorded exports went to Hong Kong, of which food items were about two" thirds by value and miscellaneous light-industrial goods nearly one- fifth... Exports to Japan. were somewhat less than 20 percent of the total, and included oilseeds (38 percent), food (30 percent), ores. and minerals. (14.percent), and other raw materials from agriculture (most of the remainder). Exports to other areas were constituted largely of food, - 19 - S.J3..C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362Rd6400030001-3 and of light-industrial exports (the bulk of which went to South and Southeast Asia). b. Unrecorded EUorts In addition to recorded exports there were 50,000 tons of Burmese rice valued at $5 million which were purchased by the Chinese Communists. but shipped directly from Burma to Ceylon. It is believed that the Chinese recorded these rice shipments both as imports from Burma and as exports to Ceylon.. No allowance has been made in this paper for opium or other narcotics exports, since intelligence indicates that any earnings from this source would be relatively insignificant. - 20 - S-E- C-R-E--T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Raimease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R 400030001-3 Value of Recorded Communist Chinese Exports to Non-Communist Countries 1955 a/* Thousand US$ 1955 . Country Jan-June July-Dec. Total Total EUROPE, WESTERN HE TBl PHERE AND SOUTH AFRICA _J Austria 453 556 1,009 878 Belgium-Luxembourg 961 1,162 2,123 2,058 Canada 1,909 2,381 4,290 1,541. Colombia 13 18 31 311 Denmark .69 126 195 30 Finland 2,819 764 3,583 2,953 France 4,949 7,053 12,002 8,972 West Germany 23,781 22,136 45,917 37,688 Italy 1,781 3,092 4,873 2,182 Mexico. 206 130 336 354 Netherlands 5,231 3,293 8,524 6,306 Norway 713 1,841 2,554 2,439 Sweden 1,333 1,140 2,473 1,159 Switzerland 10,227 8,839 19,066 10,599 Union of South Africa 464 559 1,023 n.a. United Kingdom 16,870 16,799 33,669 25,664 United States 102 125 227 170 15 percent adjustment for c.i.f. (except for the US and Canada) -10,481 -10,126 -20,607 -15,239 Subtotal 61,400 59,888 121,288 88,o65 *Footnotes for Table 12 follow on pp. 22, 23. - 21 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rejease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RI 0400030001-3 Table 12 Value of Recorded Communist Chinese Exports, to Non-Communist Countries 1955 8./ (Continued) Thousand US 1955 1954 Country July-Dec. Total Total NEAR EAST, ASS AND. OCEANIA Australia 2,019 2,691 4,710 3,878 Burma 1 4,521 4,522 306 Ceylon 10,855 6,016 16,871 8 8 32,26o 818 Egypt 459 1,359 1 1, French Morocco 11,708 5,265 16,973 12,493 French West Africa 1,171 349 1,520 1,156 India I/ 3,880 3,875 7,755 4,922 Indonesia 5,377 5,572 10,949 4.1228 Japan 39,880 40,901 80,781 40,770 Macao 2,580 2,500 5,o8o 5, 542 Malaya 17,563 21,007 38,570 29,108 New Zealand 326 500 826 628 Pakistan 248 146 3.94 1,375 Philippines 188 .200 388 945 Taiwan 862 1,062 1,924 3,411 Vietnam e/ 4,303 4,500 8,803. 8,381 5 percent adjustment for c.i.f. except for the Philippines -5,062 -5,013 -10,075 -7,464 Subtotal. 96,358 95,451 191,809 9 142,757 Hong Kong f/ 48,ooo 59,300 107,300 66,700 TOTAL 205 758 214,639 4202397 297,522 a Data derived from published statistics of non-Communist countries con- cerned. Most countries report their imports by country of original origin so that a portion of their imports recorded "from China"'were actually S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RV0400030001-3 Table 12 Value of Recorded Communist Chinese Exports to Non-Communist Countries 1955 (Continued) purchased from other intervening owners. For example., the exports recorded above to Taiwan were all resold transshipments, and the "exports" to the US included such items as art objects which may have left China years: ago. Second-half 195+ figures are revised to reflect complete data for the year and therefore differ slightly in some cases from those found in EIC-RI-S14 Data for the first half of 1955 are complete. for all countries; data for the second half are complete except for Mexico, the Philippines, and Vietnam which were. estimated from data for less than six months. b. Figures for countries of Western Europe, Western Hemisphere, and the Union of South Africa are based on the assumption of a two-month voyage They represent recorded.imports for. March of the reported year through February of'the following year. Figures for Hong Kong, Japan., Masao, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are recorded importer for the months shown in the table.. Figures, for the remaining countries are based on a .one-month voyage,, or imports of February of the reported year through January of the following year. c. Sugar imports-.from Taiwan amounting to US $1,223,000 were deducted from. first half 195+ imports from Communist China as reportedin Ceylon's trade statistics. d. Includes India's exports to Tibet for 1954 and first half 'of 1955. Data for the second half are incomplete. e. The data for. 1954 refer to Indochina and presumably include trade with South Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. January May 1955 data are reported in the source as imports. into North and South Vietnam. Starting in June 1955 only imports into South Vietnam are reported presumably excluding imports into Laos, Cambodia and North Vietnam. f.. A deduction has. been made from Hong Kong's recorded imports from Communist China to eliminate duplication resulting from the fact that many countries (all listed countries except the UK, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Egypt, Australia, India., New Zealand, and the Philippines) record imports from Hong Kong of Chinese 'origin as. imports from Communist China. In these cases, goods exported by Communist China are recorded as imports both by Hong Kong and the country of destination. For 1954 and 1955 the amount of this deduction in million of US dollars' was.estimated as follows: Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R8 0400030001-3 Table 12 Value of Recorded Communist Chinese Exports to Non-Communist Countries 1955 (Continued) 1955. 1954 January Jane July - December Total Total Hong Kongtotal imports 69.4 84.8 1.54':2' . 118.8 from Communist China Less; Estimated.re- exports recorded. in import data of other countries as imports from Communist China Taiwan 049 1.1 2.0 3.4 Japan 5,. 9 6.9 12'..8 17.7 Malaya 6.3 6.6 12.9 13.6 Indonesia 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.2 Vietnam 1.1 2.1 3.2 3.0 Other - 21 .4 ' 13.6 _.6.9 12.2 _52.1 Hong Korg*s retained imports from Communist China and re-exports not recorded in import data of other countries as imports from Communist China 48.0 1Q7.3 66.7 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For R ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362FNM400030001-3 III. Value and Volume of Principal Trade Movements A. Total Chinese Communist Trade 1. Introduction The total vol=e of Communist China's 1955 trade is estimated to have been 13.1 million tons, of which 51 percent has been established from trade data and cargo 'estimates, 22 percent directly from other -evidence, and 27 percent based primarily on estimated pricing~of 'residual values. 2. Total Imports As indicated in Section II, above, total imports into Communist China during 1955 are estimated at $2,485 million./ of which, however, only $1,865 million represented actual 1955 movements of goods -- estimated-at some 4.2 million tons. Analysis of'cargoes indicates that approximately $605 million, representing just over 2 million tons,, moved by ocean shipping, leaving a balance of $1,260 million, representing some 2.2 million tons, which is:estimated to have moved overland.-- largely by rail. (See Table 13, page 26, and the detailed discussions following.) 3. Total Exports Communist China's exports during 1955 are estimated at $2,000 million, representing' some 8..8 million. tons.. These were made up.of an estimated- $61t-5 million 'exported by ocean shipping, representing 4.5 million tons, and a balance. of $1,355 million, representing 4.3 million tons, which moved overland -- nearly. 980. by rail. (See Table 13, page 26, and the detailed discussions following.) This figure of $2,485 million includes an-estimated 620 million of facilities and military equipment acquired by China under a special loan from the USSR, which did not contribute any 1955 tonnage move- ments to the volume of Chinese import traffic. (See Section II, B.. 1, and Section II, C. 1. above.) - 25 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Summary of Communist China's Estimated Trade and Trade Movements (By Estimated Actual Origin and Destination of Shipments) .1955 By Sea Overland Thousand Million Metric Tons US Dollars Thousand Metric Tons Million US Dollars Thousand Metric Tons Million US Dollars Imports From: Non-Bloc 1,552 -C/ 420 1,552 420 USSR - Trade 32 10 1,840 930 1,872 940 USSR - Special Loan a - 1 - (620) a1 European. Satellites 420 175 180 275 600 450 North.Korea and Mongolia - - 200 40 200 40 It North Vietnam 20 15 20 15 IC] N Total 2,004 605 2,240 1,260 4,244 (2,485) a/ Its Iy Exports To: Non Bloc 2,675 .430 133 E 25 24/ 2,808 455 USSR 615 55 .2,645 865 3,260 920 European. Satellites 1,260 155 295 295 1,555 450 North Korea and Mongolia - - 1,200 125 1,200 125 North Vietnam 35 5 25 45 60 50 Total 4,585 645 4,298 1,355 8,883 2,000 Grand Total 6,589 1,250 6,538 2,615 13,127 (4,485).a/ Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Fase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362F860400030001-3 E-C-R=E-T Table 13 Summary of Communist Chin's Estimated Trade and Trade Movements (By Estimated Actual Origin and Destination of Shipments) 1955 (Continued) .a/ An estimated $620 million of facilities and military equipment acquired by China under a special loan were physically located in China prior to 1955, and therefore did not contribute any tonnage movements to the volume of'Chinese import traffic. Based on.cargo'dataexcept for'Japanland Hong Kong, for which trade return figures have been. used to supplement incomplete cargo data. Includes. negligible tonnages which moved to China from Kowloon (Hong Kong) by truck or over the Canton-Kowloon Railroad, or from. Macao via smuggling through the.Kowloonarea. These ,goods, however, all arrived in Hong Kong or Macao by sea from the West. Represents exports. via truck and railroad to Kowloon (Hong Kong) of commodities for consumption within the colony. - 27- 5-E-C-R- E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Fase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362F0400030001-3 B. Trade with Non-Bloc Countries 1. Im: orts Import cargoes from non-Communist countries in 1955 totalled some 1.5 million tons., of which all but an insignificant amount moved by ocean shipping. L This volume estimate is based on intelligence on individual cargoes -- except for Japan and Hong Kong where trade statistics were used to supplement incomplete cargo data. Western Europe shipped about 817,000 tons of cargo to Communist China in 1955 (including:an estimated 200,000 tons transshipped' via Bloc ports in Europe in order to circumvent CHINCOM differential controls). Of this total the principal items were fertilizer (380,000 tons), and iroh and steel (170,000 tons, of which 165,000 were indirect transshipments). Chemicals, machinery, and nonferrous metals were important items in the remaining tonnage (267,000 tons). About 140.,000 tons of seaborne cargo (excluding junk and'-river steamer cargo) reached, Communist China.from Hong Kong, consisting,largely of 126,000 tons of chemical fertilizers. The balance was made up of other nhemicals,.machinery, and small tonnages . of 'miscellaneous items. Japan exported about 200,000 tons.of cargo consisting mainly of 175,000 tons of'fertilizers, 10,000 tons of other chemicals, as well. as some iron.and steel, nonferrous metals, machinery, and other products. Cargo data indicate an estimated 290,000 tons of seaborne shipments from other areas including 42,000 tons of 'rubber (33,000 from Ceylon, 2,000 from Burma, and. 7,000 of unrecorded exports. from Indonesia); 60,000 tons of'cotton, principally from Pakistan, Egypt, and India; 8,000 tons of coconut oil from Ceylon, Malaya, and Indonesia; and 25,000 tons of fertilizer from Canada. These figures differ somewhat from trade data, in that the volume of cotton based on trade data totalled some 70,000 tons (including 6,500 tons from Brazil), and coconut oil and copra imports amounted to 31,000 tons, so that some of these tonnages apparently moved indirectly. 'Of this total about 88,000 tons reached China by small craft or overland (via Hong Kong and Macao), but most of these=commodities had arrived. in the Far. East by ocean shipping from the West. - 28 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Table 14 Communist Chinese and Macao Recorded Imports from Hong Kong, by Volume a January - December 1955 January - June July - December January - December Method of Transport China Macao Total China Macao Total China Macao Total Oceangoing Vessels 71 1 72 69 1 70 14o 2 142 River Steamers 8 8 ? 10 10 18 18 Junks 21 25 46 12 25 37 33 50 83 Launches - - - 3 3 3 3 Total = Waterborne 92 34+ 126 84 36 120 176 70 24+6 (Rail.and Road movements were insignificant) a/ This table (compiled from Hong Kong official statistics) shows all recorded traffic from Hong Kong to China and Macao including: (1) goods exported from Hong Kong, and (2) goods exported to China from third countries via Hong Kong and transshipped there. It does not include transit cargo -- i.e., cargo arriving in a ship calling at Hong Kong enroute for China but not transshipped in the Colony. Data were reported in long tons but have been converted to metric tons in the table above to facilitate comparison with metric ton figures throughout the report. Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For F ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362 0400030001-3 2. Exports The volume of Chinese Communist exports to Free World'.countries, transported chiefly by ocean shipping, totalled over 3.3 million tons -- including;about 550,000 tons of cargo arriving in Western ports for trans- shipment to the Soviet Bloc. The remaining "'-L ill.ion tons are believed to represent exports of Chinese goods for Western consumption. Cargo data reveal that Western Europe. received about 920,.000 tons .from Communist China in 1955, of which it is estimated nearly 550,000 tons were transshipped to the European. Satellites.I/ and about 370,000 tons .retained by Western European countries. It is estimated that this 370,000 tons included about 215,000 tons of soya beans, peanuts and other oil seeds, 70,000 tons of'other foodstuffs, 29,000 tons,of industrial oils, 20,000 tons of other agricultural products, 15,000 tons of 'non-ferrous ores, and 10,000 tons of textiles. The remaining 15,000 tons.of miscellaneous and unidentified products was largely made up of miscellaneous chemicals and handicraft products. Of a total volume of 1,221,000 tons moving directly from Communist China to Japan, salt amounted to about 630,000 tons, soya beans 200,000 tons, rice 12+,000 tons, nonferrous metals and ores 83,000 tons, and miscellaneous agricultural raw materials 118,.000 tons. Hong Kong shipping returns showed'exports from Communist China of some 990,000 tons (See Table 15, page 31 f.) consisting mainly of foodstuffs, agricultural raw materials, and construction materials. It is believed that about two-thirds of the volume of these Chinese products were retained in Hong Kong during 1955, the balance representing Hong Kong. reexports. Cargodata indicate that the Near East, Africa, South.arid Southeast Asia.received about 161,000 tons from Communist China during 1955. This included 93,000 tons of rice and other cereals, 9,000 tons of soya beans,, and other agricultural and light industrial products. Included in the transshipments were about 2,10,000 tons of iron ore,. 200,000 tons.of soya. beans, and 50,000 tons of peanuts. In view of the gaps in intelligence on ;cargoes from Communist China to Japan and Hong Kong, official trade data have been used to supplement cargo intelligence on tonnages shipped during 1955. Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362Rap0400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 15 Communist Chinese Recorded Exports to Hong Kong, by VOlume.. January December 1955 Method',of Transport January -.June July - December January - December Oceangoing Vessels 112 113 1225 River Steamers b/ Junks 236 363 599 Launches 14+ 20 3. Subtotal - Waterborne 362 496 858 Rail: 53 67 120 Road 6 7 13 Total - Waterborne and Overland 421 MO .991 a/ This table (compiled.from.Hong Kong official statistics) shows all recorded traffic from China to Hong Kong including: (1) goods imported into Hong Kong and (2) goods imported from China, destined fora third country and transshipped at Hong Kong. It does not include transit cargo. 'Data were reported in long tons, but have been converted to metric tons in the table above to facilitate comparison with metric ton figures throughout the report. Nil or negligible. - 31 - S-E-C-t-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For R ease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R 60400030001-3 C.. Trade with the Soviet Bloc 1. Trade with the USSR The value of total 1955 trade between China and the USSR has been estimated as, $2,480 million. It is believed that $620 million of this total represented facilities and military equipment acquired by China under a special loan from the USSR and physically located in Communist China and the Port Arthur area prior to 1955 -- so that they would not have contributed any tonnage movements to the volume of. Chinese import traffic. The remaining $1,860 million.of trade with the USSR was made up (see Section II, B.1, p.8 above) of $940 million of Chinese imports and $920 million of Chinese exports; which are estimated to have represented close to 1.9 million tons of Chinese imports; and 3.3 million tons of Chinese exports. a. Imports from the USSR (1) Seaborne Communist China?s imports by sea from the USSR in 1955 were lower than in 1954, principally because direct seaborne shipments: of petroleum products declined to approximately 13,000 tons of which the bulk arrived in a single shipment of nearly 10,000 tons from the Black Sea area. Other cargoes are estimated (largely on the basis of air photographs) to have totalled 19,000 tons, of which paper was probably the principal single item. Pricing the POL at $50 per ton and other items at prices ranging from $200 to $1,000 per ton gives a total estimated value for these shipments of $10 million. (2) Overland The $930 million difference between estimated total. imports of $940 million and seaborne cargoes of $10 million represents overland imports from the USSR, with an estimated volume of 1,840,000 tons. Over 90 percent of these overland imports moved by rail. From.available intelligence it is estimated that the total-of Chinese imports of petroleum products increased about 20 percent in 1955 from the 1954 level of over 1 million tons to over 1.2 million tons. About 75,000 tons, of this quantity moved by sea from the European Satellites and about 13,000 tons by sea from the USSR, The balance of roughly 1,150,000 tons moved overland from the USSR, and Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For F ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RQ00400030001-3 accounted for more than half the total volume of overland imports from the USSR.. Some of these petroleum. imports moved from the Black Sea area by sea to Vladivostok and were transshipped to Communist China, largely by rail via Grodekovo. The total of such transshipments plus receipts from Soviet Par East refineries is.estimated to have amounted to half a million tons,. of which, however, a substantial portion (perhaps 150,000 tons) probably moved to China by barge on the Amur and Sungari Rivers. The remaining imports of some 650,000 tons of POL presumably moved via the Trans.-Siberian Railroad through Qtpor. Applying an average price of something over $50 per ton, the total overland shipments of petroleum products have been valued at $60 million. Despite announced increases in Chinese steel capacity and occasional exports of `certain 'simple types ;of Chinese steel, it is believed that over-all Chinese import requirements for steel have continued to rise. On the other hand, evidence now available suggests that the estimate made for overland steel imports in ETC-Rl-S1+ was higher than the actual movement, and that this 195+ movement was probably well under 200,000 tons.. For 1955, therefore, imports of steel from the USSR are estimated at approximately 200,000 tons with a value of $30 million. It is probably that, in addition to the military equipment turned over to the Chinese when Soviet forces withdrew from Port Arthur, the Chinese received certain direct military imports from the USSR. Although the value and volume of such direct military imports for 1955 are unknown, the EIC-Rl.-S4 estimates for 195+ provide some indication.of their likely magnitude. Accordingly, it is estimated that about $150 million of military equipment may have been imported from the USSR during 1955, corresponding to a traffic volume of about 30,000 ton.s.. Although. the balance. of Chinese imports cannot be specifically identified, it is believed that they consisted primarily of industrial: equipment, mining and agricultural machinery,, vehicles and instruments -- all of which are required in increasing :volume by the Chinese to meet the expanding demands of their industrialization program. On the basis of press announcements and other information, these. imports appear to have been of a relatively high value per ton -- estimated at an average of $1,500. The remaining $690 million of imparts would, therefore, have represented approximately 1+60,000 tons of traffic. Total overland imports from the USSR are accordingly estimated as 1,8+0,000 tons, the bulk of which is believed to have been shipped via the Trans-Siberian Railroad through Otpor.. Shipments. through Grodekovo, primarily petroleum products, probably increased during 1955 and are estimated as 350,000 tons. It is probable that 150,000 tons of - 33 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For lease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362 00400030001-3 S-E-C--R-E-T petroleum products plus small tonnages. of other goods were shipped via the Sungari River, and that 20,-000 tons of equipment and consumer goods were shipped by road to Sinkiang. Total rail shipnts through..Otpor, there- fore, may be estimated as 1,310,000 tons. Tab le 16 Approximate Distribution of Estimated Overland Imports from USSR, by Type of Commodity and by Means of Transport .1955 Thousand Million US, $ Metric Tons By Type` of Commodity POL 60 1,150 Steel, 30 200 Military Equipment and Supplies 150 30 Other 690 460 Total. 90 By Means: of Transport By Rail through Grodekovo 350 By Rail through Otpor 1,310 By Sungari River 160 By Road to Sinkiang 20 Total ,tl, b. Exports to USSR (1) Seaborne Approximately 615,000 tons. of Chinese exports moved by sea to the USSR during 1955,.with a total value of about $55 million. This total was distributed as follows: - 34 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For R@ ;ease 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R 0400030001-3 Million US $ Thousand Metric Tons To USSR Ports in Europe: Commodity Shipments 24 173 To the Soviet Far East: Commodity Shipments 16 x+18 Barges, Motor Launches, etc= 15 24 Total 55 615 Exports to USSR ports in Europe consisted primarily of soya beans, plus some rice and peanuts, and a single shipment of soda ash.. Commodity shipments to the Soviet Far East consisted about half (by volume) of coal, with the balance made up largely of cement, salt and foodstuffs.. With the exception of foodstuffs these commodities are all of ':extremely low value per ton. In addition a number of Chinese-built small craft were observed being delivered to the Soviet Far East either as deck cargo, in. tow, or moving under their own power. (2.) Overland The remaining $865 million of estimated Chinese exports to the USSR during 1955 moved overland, over 95 percent by rail. The volume of these overland exports is. estimated at about 2.65 million tons, of which over one-third moved to the Soviet Far East by rail via Grodekovo, or on the Sungari River. Intelligence indicates that rail shipments through Grodekovo may have declined in 1955 to a. level of about 850,000 tons. These shipments consisted of coal, salt, grain, and foodstuffs shipped. to Vladivostok, Nakhodka, and Khabarovsk for local consumption or for shipment to offshore areas. The average value per ton of these ship- ments is relatively low, and their total value is tentatively placed at $150 million.. Chinese exports, to the USSR by road and river are believed to have been. small in 1955, totalling about 70,000 tons with a value of'approximately $25 million. Road shipments from Sinkiang, based on occasional abservor reports and estimated availability of'export products, are placed at 10,000 tons. These products are of a relatively high value per ton, such as wool, skins, and nonferrous ores, and their total value is estimated as $15 million. Shipments of timber and agri- cultural products on the Sungari. River constitute the remainder of this a 35 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For RJ ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R 400030001-3 traffic (perhaps 60,000 tons) and, with a much lower value per ton, may have been worth about $10 million. The remaining $690 million of Chinese overland exports to the'USSR represent rail shipments through Otpor. These exports included commodities of low to medium value per ton, such as grains and foodstuffs, pig iron, minerals and ore concentrates, and also products of a very high value per ton, such as bristles, silk, wool, skins and hides. It is estimated that the average value of these exports may have been about $400 per ton, so that the total volume of such shipments through Otp:or would have amounted to approximately 1,725,000 tons. Approximate Distribution.of Estimated Overland Exports to USSR, by Means of Transport, 1955 Thousand Million US $ Metric Tons By Rail through Grodekovo 150 850 By Rail through.Otpor 690 1,725 By Sungari River 10 60 By Road from Sinkiang 15 10 Total 865 64+5 2. Trade with the European Satellites (in Terms of Estimated Actual Origin and Ultimate Destination of Cargoes a. Total Trade Total trade between Communist China and the European Satellites has been estimated for 1955 as $900 million -- divided about evenly into $4+50 million of imports and $450 million of exports. (See p. 8, above.) Thisrepresented about 600,000 tons of imports, and over 1,500,000 tons of exports over three-quarters of which moved by sea. (i.e., 420,000 tons. of imports and 1,260,000 tons of exports). Seaborne tonnages, however, included high proportions of bulky low-value commodities, so that this seaborne traffic represented only a .little over one-third of the total value of this trade:; :and the' 22`..percent vf:.'this - r~de"voliume whichmoved ov;erla..d'-,,(-1$0, 800:- tomm of,.:impozrts`. and., 295',:000 tons of '- exports ) accounted.for over 60 percent of its total value. 36 - Approved For Release 2001/12/&5S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For Ruse 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Imports (1) Seaborne Analysis of cargo movements indicates that a total of 620,000 metric tons of cargo moved into Communist China by sea from European. Satellite ports -- but intelligence evidence indicates that about 200,000 tons of this cargo were actually of Western European origin, having been transshipped through Gdynia to avoid established controls on direct shipments to Communist China (see Section II. C. 2, b. (2) under Unrecorded Imports, p. 16 , above). Only 420,000 tons of seaborne Chinese imports from European ports actually originated from the European Satellites: -- representing an;estimated value of about $17- million. Table 18 Communist Chinese Seaborne Imports Originating from European Satellite;, 1955 (Estimated from Cargo Information) Volume Average Value Value Commodity 000 Ton) Per Ton (US $) (Million US $) POL 76 60 4 Iron and Steel 83 170 14 Nonferrous Metals 11 700 8 Fertilizer 89 65 6 Chemicals and Drugs 20 800 16 Instruments 1 5,000 5 Transport Equipment 12 1,250 15 Machinery 20 1,750 35 Machine Tools 1 2,000 2 Foodstuffs 41 200 8 Miscellaneous 4 750 3 Unidentified a 62 950 59 1420 a. he 62,005 tons of unidentified cargo consists, for the most par , of residual tonnages: remaining after identification of the bulk of the cargo on individual ships; there are only two ships for which the entire cargo is unidentified. Although the unidentified cargo is made up of commodities in the groups identified above, it is believed that a greater proportion of this unidentified cargo represents machinery and instruments, reflecting a.known increase in the export of whole industrial plants from the European Satellites to China. - 37 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Re Zse 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362FNW400030001-3 (2) Overland The remaining $275 million of Chinese imports from the European. Satellites are presumed to represent overland rail move- ments. According to Chinese and Satellite press announcements and other intelligence, these imports consisted primarily of'vehicles and of machinery and.equipment for the industrial plants being constructed in Communist China by Satellite nations. It is estimated that the value: of such overland shipments may have averaged around $1,500 per ton and represented approximately 180,000 tons of Chinese overland imports. c. Exerts (1) Seabptne Communist China's seaborne exports to the European Satellites during 1955 amounted to about 1,260,000 tons, with an estimated value of $155 million. Of this total, something over 700,000 tons were delivered directly to Bloc ports. In addition, nearly 550,000 tons. of cargo unloaded in non-Bloc ports (primarily Hamburg and Rijeka) are estimated to have been transshipped overland or by inland waterways to destinations in the' European Satellites. 38 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RQW400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 19 Total Direct plus Transshipped Communist Chinese Seaborne Exports. to European Satellites, 1955 (Estimated from Cargo Information /) Commodity Volume 000 Tong Average Value per Ton (us 1.) Value (Million s $$) Iron Ore 668 15 10 Pig Iron 6 50 0,-3 Nonferrous Metals and Ores 13 700 9.1 Petroleum Coke 2 25 0.1 Textiles, 0.7 7,000 5 Rice and Other Cereals. 89 140 12.4 Soybeans; 278 110 30.6 Peanuts. 96 300 28.8 Other Oilseeds 34 200 6.8 'Other Foodstuffs 36 6oo 21.6 Industrial Oils 5 350 1.7 Jute 3 225 0.7 Other Agricultural Raw Materials 16 1,250 20 Sulphur 4 35 0.1 Unidentified J 9 85o _6 i 26o 154,8 .4- - Of which : 713,000 tons -delivered directly to Bloc ports; 547,000 tons unloaded in ntn-Bloc ports arid. .transsh peed. b . It is belie *d-that -these exports- auasi-sted `primarily of high and medium value commodities. Chinese exports of lower value are custormarily shipped in 'bulk and are relatively easily identified. (2) Overland The remaining $295 million of Chinese exports to the European Satellites are believed to represent overland movements. Only fragmentary intelligence is available on Chinese overland exports to the European Satellites, but these would consist of'products having a very high value per ton, such as, bristles, casings, canned foods, and handicrafts., as well as some lower-valued oilseeds and foodstuffs. It is estimated that the average value per ton of such overland exports may have been around $1,000,- so that they would have represented a total volume of about 295,000 tons. -39- S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Rase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362F '0400030001-3 S: E-C-R-E-T 33. Trade with the Far Eastern Satellites The volume of Communist China's trade with North Korea, North Vietnam.-and Mongolia during 1955 has been estimated from several announce- ments of the tonnages involved and from general information on the commodities Involved in this trade, Trade with North Korea.was by rail, with Vietnam both by sea and overland (road and rail), and with Mongolia primarily by road. a. Trade with North Korea: (1) Imports Communist Chinese imports from North Korea during 1955 consisted of electric power,,, the value of which may have amounted to about $10 million, plus 'commodities such as minerals, fish, fruits, and medicines, with a.value of approximately $15 million, It is estimated that these total imports represented about 200,000 tons. (2) Exports The North Koreans have reported partial lists of 1955 imports . from: China totalling about 1 million tons. It is believed that these announcements included the major tonnages involved in an estimated 25 million of Chinese commercial exports to North. Korea. and a publicized 90 million of Chinese aid materials. The total volume of Chinese exports. to North Korea during 1955 is estimated to have been about 1,200,000 tons. Trade with North Vietnam (1) Imports Chinese imports from North Vietnam are of a relatively high value per ton,. consisting of'antimony, tin and such agricultural specialties as cinnamon, tea, coffee, pepper, hides and bamboo. It is estimated that the value of-these imports during 1955 was about $15 million, representing approximately 20,000 tons. (2) orts During 1955, Communist Chinese aid deliveries and commercial exports to North Vietnam amounted to about $50 million, con? misting of military equipment, consumer goods, and foodstuffs. It is estimated that these exports represented about 60,000 tons. Over half -4o- Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For RAMse 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R@0400030001-3 S-E-C-R E-T of these shipments (almost all rice) moved by sea and the balance by rail or road. c. Trade with Mongolia 1 y Communist Chinese trade with Outer Mongolia in 1955 consisted of Chinese imports of horses, agricultural products and mineral ores, and Chinese eaporta of cr goods plus' the equip- went for several light industrial plants which Crmamznist China eompfeted for Outer Mongolia in 1955. This traffic moved largely by truck and'animal -caravan. Its value is. estimated at $15 million in .each direction and its volume was negligible. - 41 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R000400030001-3 Approved For RaWase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362RO400030001-3 S E.-C-R.E-T IV. Transport and Transport Services A. Ocean. Shipping The year 1955 again witnessed a substantial increase. in the amount of"merchant shipping: engaged in trade with Communist China.. As in previous years, non-Bloc tonnage was predominant, with eighty-one percent of all :merchant shipping arriving in Communist China under free world registry, and nineteen percent under Soviet, Palish, or Czechoslovakian flag. There" was no activity by the.Chinese Communist merchant fleet outside home waters in 1955 with. the exception of a minor amount of"commerce with North Vietnam. There were 1,185 merchant ship arrivals in Chinese Communist ports in 1955, totalling nearly 5.5 million gross register tons (GRT), an increase of 893,000 GRT, or nearly 20 percent over 1954. These arrivals represented an'estimated cargo-carrying; capacity of about 8.2 million long tons. Merchant ships of 17 Western'-countries. made 987 individual voyages to Communist China,, accounting for more than 4.4 million.GRT, an increase of 17 percent over the tonnage of non-Bloc arrivals in 1954 The following table, which shows the number and'estimated cargo- carrying.capacity of arrivals, together with the per-cent of tonnage represented by non-Bloc registry shipping for each year 1951-1955, is indicative of the continuing importance.of Western shipping in China trade; Table 20 Total Arrivals in Communist China 1951 through 1955 1951 1952 1953 .1954 1955 (EIC-R-1) (EIC-Rl-S2) (EIC-Rl-S ) (EIC-RI-s4) (EIC-RI-S ) 5' - ,. .826 1,0.."`T_.` =, 5 Cargo-carrying capacity & 3,241 3,527 5,900 6,900 8,241. (thousand of long tons) Percent of non-Bloc 86 81 85 82 81 tonnage The cargo-carrying capacity of oceango cargo ships may be genera y to en as a 1 .5 times the gross register tonnage, and this. factor has been used throughout this report. In practice, however,. the tonnage which a given ship can actually carry on a particular voyage is affected by the nature of the cargo, the length. of the voyage, the number of ports visited, and the proportion.of space in the ship allotted to passenger accommodation. - 42 - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Ft460ase 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362Ft0400030001-3 S-E-C-R E-T The cumber of individual arrivals in Chinese ports does not,, however, give a complete picture of the shipping, engaged in trade with Communist China. Ships arriving in Chinese ports fallinto several categories, for example.. European. tramps and liners, Hong Kong traders, Japanese tramps, other liners operating out of Southeast Asia and Africa, and Bloc ships from the Soviet Far East. These provide rather different types of service and differ substantially in their pattern of employment. Vessels operating out of Hong Kong and Japan on the relatively short run to and from. the China coast sometimes account for several arrivals monthly. On the other hand,, European tramps and liners. .ust maker rela- tively long voyages between Communist China and their home ports, so that a single trip may last a number of 'months. The average monthly arrival tonnage.of all vessels. engaged in China trade amounted to 458,,000 GRT in 1955- Since 35 percent of all arrivals originated in European ports, however, and'since ships in the Sino-European trade are generally employed a minimum of three months, the total tonnage involved at any one time in trade with the Communist Chinese is much higher. Analysis of the shipping' engaged reveals that in 1955 on any given. day, counting all ships in Chinese ports or enroute to or from China, an average of 916,000 GRT of shipping was involved in trade with Communist China. About one-half of total GRT 'of" non-Bloc arrivals is .represented by ships trading between Hong Kong or Japan and the China mainland. Ships beginning their voyages from. non-Bloc ports in Europe accounted for another one-third.:of 'ron-Bloc arrivals, with liner service accounting for most of the GRT,, although the bulk of cargo was carried by tramps. Most of the remainder of 'non-Bloc arrivals originated in Eastern European or South Asian ports Voyages of Soviet Bloc shipping engaged. in trade with China originated largely in Bloc ports, especially from Poland and the Soviet Far East. A number of ships, under non-Bloc flags. were :engaged ':exclusively in 'domestic coastal trade for the Communist Chinese during various periods in 1955 -- and represent a valuable service not reflected in arrival. figures, (See Section 1V. B. 1, p.52, ff.) It is also important to note the ship-- building: sand repair services .rendered by non-Bloc shipyards to the Sino- Soviet Bloc merchant marines. Nine new ships were constructed: for the Soviet Bloc by Western yards and put into use on the Far Eastern run,, four more than were contributed by the Bloc shipbuilders themselves. In.addition three second-hand: vessels procured from the West were placed on the China run. Repairs on ten Bloc ships engaged in trade with China were effected or begun in non-Bloc yards in 1955. These building and repair projects have not only economic. but also military significance in that they free Bloc shipbuilders .of such tasks and make them. available for :naval construction:. - 43 -- 5 E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 Approved For Fuse 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85S00362R9400030001-3 5 E-C-R=ELT .Nc Bloc Shinn review There were 987 arrivals by non-Bloc. merchant ships in 1955, representing'a GRT of 111+28,000 -- in comparison. with. 846 non-Bloc arrivals in 1954 with aGRT of 3(791,000. This constitutes an increase of 17 percent in the number and GRT of non :Bloc arrivals in 1954. With some minor fluctu- ations, the over-all monthly arrival tonnage showed a steady increase- throughout the entire year, reaching an all-time high during Novembet and .December. (See Shipping Graph 1.) Ships of seventeen countries were engaged in thh trade. The flags.of' the Turkish., Egyptian, South African, Burmese,, and Lebanese merchant fleets appeared for the first time in 1955. No; merchant shops of Panamanian or Moroccan registry entered Com niat Chinese ports in 1955', whereas in 1954 one Moroccan and 4 Panamanian vessels were engaged in China trade. British ships & p, ed for 42 percent of the total arrival tonnages (52 percent of the total non-Bloc arrivals). Other important tonnages were contributed by Japanese, Dutch and Norwegian vessels -- 14, 6. and 5 percent, respectively, of the total arrival tonnages. (See Shipping Graph 2.) The general pattern of origin of non-Bloc shipping ;arrivals in the: Chinese trade was relatively little changed in 1955 over 1954, and is summarized in the attached graph. (See Shipping Graph 3.) Ships beginning 'their voyages from non-Bloc ports in Europe accounted. for the largest single group .of arrivals;.:.,and liner service was the dominant factor in ORT involved. Regular liner shipping services are provided the Chinese Communists by ships of eleven non-Bloc commercial steamship lines which make scheduled voyages from Europe to the Far East$ including :calls :at Chinese ports. One hundred- fifty individual arrivals in Communist China (all but nine on voyages originating :from. Europe) -were made by such liners, representing a potential carrying capacity of close to 1,800,000 long tons. These .iners, of course, carry only partial cargoes for China 'and the principal cargo tonnage from Western Europe ports to China is handled by non-Bloc tramps chartered by the Bloc. The major value of the liner service is-that it facilitates trade by assuring to the-Chinese a dependable scheduled transport service for prompt dispatch of small-lot shipments, and sometimes providing deep tanks, refrig- erated holds and other space for special cargoes. -41+ - Approved For Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 SECRET Approved F(r Release 2001/12/04: CIA-RDP85SO0362R000400030001-3 ( 11 ( h 1 SttppjngGrap 000 GRT 6001- E NON-BLOC SOVIET BLOC 0 TOTAL 383 - 1-1 369 328 316 MERCHANT SHIP ARRIVALS IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1951-1955 1952 1953 1954 1955 AVERAGE MONTHLY TOTAL 1951-1955