(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000300130001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 197
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: LIST

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IAC-D-38/6
IAC-D-38/7
CONTENTS
OGC Has Reviewed
Likelihood of the USSR Deliberately
Initiating War During 1952 (25 Sept 1951)
Proposed Report on Economic Capabilities
for War of the USSR and Its Satellites
(29 October 1951)
Intelligence Aspects of Agreements with
6 November 1951)
Activities of US Intelligence Agencies in
19 October 195!0
Activities of US Intelligence Agencies in
(1 November 195; Limited Distribution)
Problems Relating to Activities-of US
Intelligence Activities
(2 February 1955)
Intelligence Aspects of the NATO Status of
Forces Ne otiations with
31 March 1955)
Intelligence Aspects
Negotiations with
(19 May 1955)
Intelligence Aspects
Negotiations with
(25 October 1955)
of the NATO Status of Forces
of the NATO Status of Forces
Intelligence Aspects of the Status of Forces
Negotiations wit
(5 Nov 1956)
*ARMY, State Department and OGC
review(s) completed.
ET
IAC-D-36
IAC-D-37
IAC-D-38
IAC-D-38/1
IAC-D-38/2
IAC-D-38/3
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I.AC-D-L2/2
IAC-D-42/3
IAC-D-42/4
IAC-D-42/5
IAC-D-42/6
Fact Finding Meeting of the Status
and Effectiveness ofeTrade2Controls Against
CommistChi.na (13
Second Revision of the EIC China Trade and
Shipping Study
(14 April 1953)
Communist Chinars Imports & Exports, 1952
Controls, Trade and Ship-ping Involved
(EIC-Rl-52) (8 Jan 1953)
t orts and Exports, 1952:
Communist China s Imp Involved
Controls, Trade and Shipping
(EIC-RI-S2) (22 June 1953)
Postponement of Revision of EIC-R-1
(9 Sept 1953)
Third Revision of the IEC China Trade and
Shipping Study (EIC-RI-S3)
(15 April 1954)
Third Revision of the IEC China Trade and
Shipping Study (EIC-R1-53)
(17 June 1954)
Approved
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IAC-D-42/7
IAC-D-42/8
IAC-D-42/9
IAC-D-42/12
IAC-D-42/12.1
IAC-D-42/12.3
IAC -D -42 / 13
Sanitized Version of Report on 25X6
China's Trade and Shipping (EIC-Rl-S3a)
(6 July 1954.)
Sanitized Version of Report on
China's Trade and Shipping (EIC-Rl-S3a)
(15 July 1954)
25X6
25X6
Fourth Revision of the EIC 0 Study 25X6
of China Trade and Transport (EIC-Rl-S4)
(18 May 1955) (See separate folder)
Fourth Revision of EIC Report on
Communist China's Trade and Transport
(EIC-Rl-S4) (12 July 1955) (See separate folder)
EIC-R-1 Series on Communist China's Trade and
Transport (20 March 1956)
EIC-R-1 Series on Communist China's Trade and
Transport (29 March 1956)
Communist China's Imports and Exports, 1955:
Trade and Transport Involved
(6 Sept 1956) (See separate folder)
Communist China's Imports and Exports, 1956:
Trade and Transport Involved (EIC-Rl-S6)
(3 Dec 1957) (See separate folder)
IAC-D-42/ 14 EIC Recommendation for EIC-R1 Series: "Communis
China's Imports and Exports: Trade and Transport
Involved" (22 May 1958)
^ r
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IAC-D-43
Soviet IAC-D-44 proposed
Estimitesal (12 March 1952)ntions
and War
T
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MEMORANDUM FOR: General Smith Security -nforn ;.,
You will recall that the IAC, at last week's
meeting, deferred action on the attached pending
presentation by General Bolling of information
regarding the present extent of Order of Battle
Mate al received by the
Ty and the possible effect of the proposed
arrangements for interchange of such material.
At today's meeting General Bolling is expected
to make the presentation. Since the last IAC
meeting there have been no "working-level" dis-
cussions of the problem.
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25X1A
12 1952
(DATE)
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TOP SECRET
Securityy Information
IAC -D -43
29 February 1952
INTELLXGEIjCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
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The attached paper is submitted for consideration a'=t'`
Intelligence Advisory Committee at its next meeting, 6 March.
JAMES Q. REBER
Seeretary
TOP SECRET
IAC
29 February 195
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SECRET AC-D-42/5
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- 15 April 1954
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Third Revision of the EIC China Trade and
Shipping Study (EIC-Rl-S3)
1. In IAC-D-42/ 4 (9 September 1953) the EIC recommended
that future OSupplements to EIC-Rl be prepared on an annual
basis. All IAC members concurred. 25X1 C
2. The EIC has prepared a preliminary draft subject revision,
covering the year 1953. This draft (attached to IAC members'
which
copies only) will be used in discussions
open on 26 April 1954. Following these discussions, an
agreed l paper will be published. 25X1 C
3. All of the IAC representatives on the EIC have concurred
in this report as an adequate basis for the forthcoming
intelligence discussions. There are a few small sections, clearly
marked in the attached report, which can only be drafted after pool-
ing of I data in the conference.
4. The attached report is forwarded to you for your in- 25X1
formation. If you have any suggestions for improvement of this
com-
report it is requested that you have your EIC rep
municate these comments to the EIC Secretariat
by 21 April. Final IAC approval of the report will not
be requested until the conclusion of theE=ntelligence meetings.
Secretary
25X1A
IAC-D-42/5
15 April 1954
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S-ESC-Ri-E-T
U. S. WOI?KING DRAFT
COMMUNIST CIIINA9S IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1953:
TRADE AND SHIPPING INVOLVED AND
E1 FFCTIVF;rIESS OF CONTROLS
(Draft) EIC?R1-33
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ECON(1IC INTELLIGENCE COMMITT1 E
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(To be prepared during
conference)
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CONTENTS 25X1 C
1. Summary /~ofMajor Developments During 1953 and the (T'o6~be prepared
First Quarter, 195 O O O i P O O dux-in,
oli ar'ennce
B. Shipping . . . a . . ? ? . ? ? . ? ? ? ? ? .
C. Effectiveness of Controls ? e . ? . . . ? .
1-l e Trade ? ? e ? a v ? ? ? ? e ? ? ? e a ? ? ? o c
A, Trade with Non-Bloc Countries . . . . . . .
1. Imports ? . ? ? ? . . a . ? a ? . ? ? . 0 4
2. Exports ? . a ? ? ? ? ? . ? e a . s a ? -
B. Trade with the Soviet Bloc ? ? ? . . . . .
1, The Level of Trade ? ? . ? . ? ? . . .
2". Seaborne Trade . o ? ? ? ? U O O o ? ? u
3. Overland Trade . ? ? ? . v ? ! ? ? ?
III0 Detailed Analysis of Goods Imported .. . . . . . o
A. Fran Non-Bloc Countries . ? ? ? . a . . ? .
1. Volume of Recorded Imports , . . . . . .
2. Volume of Unrecorded Imports . ? . . ? .,
Be From Bloc Countries . . , ? . .
1, Seaborne . ? . . ? e ? ? a o . e O . . _ a
2. Overland Imports . . ? e . o . . . . . n .
C. Capacity of Shipping Arriving in Communist Chip.
1. Introduction ? ? . . . ? . . ? ? . a ? , e
2. Non-Bloc Arrivals . . . . ? . ! ? a a ? a
3. Soviet Bloc Arrivals . . . . . . . . . . .
D. Comparison of Shipping Capacity and the Volti-
of Seaborne Cargoes ? e . . ? ? ? ? ? ? ? a o .
- ii -
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E. Comparison of Rail Capability and Overland Imp;--,-:
from the USSR . . . . . . . . ? . . a . . {
1. Capability of the Trans-Siberiai Railroad
Connecting Transportation Rout-a Into
Manchuria and Korea . . . . .
2. Comparison of Overland Trade an' Inl id
Transportation Capacity . . . . v.
IV. Assistance to the Soviet Bloc by Non-Bl J.c Sh'_`pping
Services . e ? . ? ? a ? o ? ? . . o *o ? a ? o C14 a
A. Involvement of Non-Bloc Vessels o . . . . . :
B. Scheduled Voyages of Non-Bloc Ships . . . . .
C. Charter of Non-Bloc Vessels . . . . . . a ? . r A. a
D. Non-Bloc Deliveries of Ships to the Bloc a . . .: a
E. Non-Bloc Repairs to Bloc Vessels . ?
F. Volume and Composition of the Soviet Blcl,r Mere: ;,,,
Fleet . . . ? . . . ? a . ? ? ? . ? ? ? ? . . u a
25X1 C
Developments During the First Quarter of 19514 . . . . . .(To ao per; ax
dr,-3.ng
- fore
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Tkotai-Lid Data on Merchant Shipping Involved in Trade
tilth ~rrt~ni t. China . . a . a . .
"pxa Ratory IVc Vas , O . o v a* . O ? ? ? O a O O so O O o O
Tab A. Tables in this Tab relate principally to the
anal . sis of import shipping (concerned with
cargo.carrying capacity in the origin and
destination' of voyages) in the main body of
the report.
T a Merchant Ship Arrivals in Comuniet China., by
Ir'onths p 1953 ? ? ? 0 0 . . ? . a ? a ? . 0 ? . a
2. Non-Bloc Merchant Shipping Arriving in Com-manist
Chinese Ports, by Months, 1953 0 . . a a a a
5 . Non-Blew Registered Merchant Shipping Arriving
in Conn mmist Chinese Ports? by Country of
Registry and Nationality of Beneficial Owners,
:L953 n O O ? ? ? O ? 0 0 0 O . 0 0 0 ? O 0 0 0 O
Over 1,.,000 ORT) Clearing Hong Kong for C rt .$t
ci"dna -and 'Macao,, 1953 0 ? ? ? ? . ? o 0 0 0 o a
Soviet Bloc Shipping Arrivals in Commmist
is origin of voyages of Non-Bloc Registered
Merchant Shipping Arriving in Communist Chinese
Ports. 1953 a 0 a .. a a a 0 0 0
Destination of Voyages of Non-Bloc Registered
V rchant Shipping Arriving in Communist Chinese
Porter 1953 . a a a ? . ? . . . a . a o a a 25X1 C
'tea Sczrary; of Shipping (other than Ocean-Going (To be provided
r- I
C ainease Forte' by. Months , 1953 a o . . 0 . 0 0 a
origin of Voyages' of Soviet Bloc Registered
M rchau?it Shipping Arriving in Cormn mist Chinese
Ports. 1953 0 a... u o 0 0 0 o a o a o o 0 0
Deati.nabion of Voyages of Soviet Bloc Registered
rchvnt Shipping Arriving in Commist Chinese
nuts },. 1953 o'.9 a s 0 a 0 a 0 a a a a? a o. o
= C~ R~ F,--T
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S-E-C-R-EST
Tab Tables in this Tab relate to the analysis shipping in section II A 20 Il B 2, and III p innrt
the main body of the report.
'la Wyrchant
rt shin Departures from Comnir ist China,
1953
r
p
ng from UcUflmunist Chinese Ports,,
"953 r O O o O O e ? O O e O e o e o a a . a e a
3a U n.B1oc Registered Merchant shipping
from Ca nurijst Chinese Ports by Countrypofarting
{.egis try and Nationality of Beneficial OFmers,
x'953 ^ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . ? o O w a a. a... e
!4a Origin of Voyages of Non-Bloc Registered Merchant
"hinni"IT ne
a
t
i
O e a O O O a a a e a O O o O O
O NMI-Bloc Registered Merchant Shipping Departing
--'rGm Communist Chinese Ports, by Months. 1953 a
Estinrtions of Voyages of NonOBoc Registered
==erchant Shipping Departing from Communist
('hinene Ports, 1953 . .
. a e o o. . . .. o 0
fie Soviet Bloc Shipping; Departing from Chine
Be
'ommna,iat F
t
o
r
s, by Months, 1953 ? e e o a o o
e O"?igin of Voyages of Soviet Bloc Registered
Ferchant Ships Departing from Communist Chinese
Ports r, 1953 . . ? . . . . . . . .
. e . _ . a ? a
Destlb t3 ens of Vo
Merchant Ships of Soviet Bloc Registered
Ps Departing from Communist Chinese
Forts,.. 1953 . ? ... . . . . e
? o o a. a o
Tabler' in this Tab Present details of the shipping
invDIved in Comnfllnist China's trade and related
Principal:fir to section iv in the main body of the
report,,
I 1 ,:ion of the Terre Imrolvement
1 ? Non..Bloc Registered Merchant Shipping Involved in
`' nxrist Chinese Seaborne Trade, 1953. . .
a.o
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C-2e Non-Blot Registered Merchant Shipping Ft Routr.-,
to or from Communist Chinese Ports/fra or
Non--Chinese Ports,, by Registry, 1953 ? a A
CQe3. Non-Bloc Registered Merchant Shipp".ng Eft Rout.::-,
to or from Communist Chinese Ports/fro ?i or tc.
Non-Chinese Ports, by Beneficial Owner, 19.
C-3F a Non-Bloc Registered Merchant Shipping A-,,-rivLn
at or En Route to Com unist Chine re Ports fie
Non-Chinese Ports,., 1953 . . . . . . . _ . .
C-3b. Non-Bloc Registered Merchant Shipp rng L.parti - ~,
from or En Route from Com manist China to
Non-Chixiese Ports,, 1953 . . . . . e . 0 . e
C-4. Non-Bloc Registered Merchant Shipping
Communist Chinese Coastal Trade, 1.953 v . .
C?5o Volume of Soviet Bloc Shipping Inv~ilve in
Caa>nun..st Chinese Seaborne Trade,, by r;;mths
1953 - . . . . . ? . . . e . 4 . o a e
C-60 Non-Bloc. Registered Merchant Ships in the
Canviuni.st Chinese- Coastal Trade,, 1953 . . . .3
Tables
1. Estimated Imports of CavanurXist China e . . a . o e
2a Chinese Communist Imports from Non-Bloc Countries
3? Chinese Communist Imports from Hang Kong (Valuee)
3Ao Chinese Coimmmist and Macao Imports from Hong Kong
olume) e ? o e o . .. ? e ? o ? ? ? o e o o e o
(Volume)
25X1 C
be prepa
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M be pr :p
3Bo Chinese Communist Exports to Hong Kong (Value) . . r a e .
Ito Chinese Communist Exports to Non-Bloc Countries (Vale,,
5o Chinese Communist Exports to Non-Bloc Countries (Voii.-mc)
- Vi.
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6o Sino.SaviBt Overland Trade, 1953 o ? ? e ? o a n
ry 1 O
t o Chi }jst Ch v S Exports
o 0 0 o e?? o n ? a
89 Shipping - Summary of Arrival in Cc inxnist China , a 25X1 C
8Ao Chinese Communist Seaborne Imports (Volume) ? ? a a
8B. Chinese Communist Seaborne
Countries other than Hong Kongrand Macaoan Bloc
?
'o be pi
('4
e o y 0
fl
8C, Chinese Communist Imports from Non-Soviet B soc Co~1-: fis
(Volume )
1953
,
a a s e o a o e a
9o Railways (Trans-Siberian and Hanchy
Connecting Lines) - Traffic Capability and ChineW i e
10. Shipping Summary of Involvement in Chinese Corr ~ z;
Glade e e o e ?
o a e a ~ r ? ? e? e ? ,.
e o n r r o
llo Shipping Non-Floc Merchant Vessels E1gagec, in Sc,e! 4iied
Voyages, Europe-Chfxa? by Owner and by Registry , n h
12o Shipping - Non-Bloc Vessels on Charter to the Sovie.=..
Bloc a e e e e? a e,?
s e s? e?? e n a r o_ :. 0 0
12Ae Nor'-Bloc Registered Merchant Shi
s und
C
p
er
hi?rter T
. -,u Soviet Blocs 1953, By Beneficial, Owners . . . . . .
13. Ships and Services - Acquisition by the Soviet Blot?::_::; F.;n
Non-Bloc Countries ? ? ? ? ? . * ? ? ? a o e e . t
"' a o
249 Shipping - Summary of Soviet bloc Merchant Fleet a ., a
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Graph I. Estimated Chinese Communist Imports from
Non-Bloc Countries .. m. a a ry a. a
Graph 110 Soviet Bloc and Non-Bloc Register-ed
Shipping Arriving in Cou mrdst Chinese
Ports a . . . . . . . . a . ? 0 . . :C 0
Graph III0 Soviet Bloc and Non-Bloc Registered
Shipping Involved in Communist Chinese
Seaborne Trade . . o . a . . . e . v .
Trans-Siberian Railroad and Connecting Lines (Hap) 0
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O be pr _,pax d by CIA
S-ESC-R-E-T
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S
E
C
R
-
-
-
-E-T
of Mayor D e v e l o p m e n t s D u r i n g 1953 and =:he Fi. x guar#r:>aa,
A6 Trade
B. Shipping
C. Effectiveness of Controls
(To be prepared during
conference) 25X1 C
S-E-C R E-T
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II0 Ta .
A. Trade with NoneSoviet Bloc Countries,
16 ~.
a. Recorded Imports.
The value of Communiet China's recorded Imports from
non-Communist countries in 1953 was ?5280 million (See Table 2),* as
compared with $250 million in 1952. In the first half of 1953 these
imports continued the trend of expansion evidenced in.l952, reaching
a level 23 per cent above that of the last half of 1952 and 47 per cent
above that of the first half of 1952. These imports, however, declined
sharply in the last half of 1953, to 70 per cent of the level of the
first half of the year.
. The volume of recorded imports from non-Communist
countries in 1953 i; estimated at 717,000 tons, as compared with 1a97,000
tons in 1952.
During 1953 Communist China's direct imports recorded
from the Western Hemispheres as in 1952s continued to be ngeligible.
Direct Imports recorded from-Western Europe, however, increased sharply,
accounting for 35 per cent of the value of recorded imports from non-
Communist countries in 1953 as compared with 10 per cent in 1952. Thy
proportion of imports from Ceylon also increased from 10 to 20 per cent
of the total in 1953 over 1952 while the position of imports from
Hong Kong remained unchanged at slightly over 30 per cent, and imports
from Pakistan declined from nearly 40 per cent to 2 per cent of the
total. Recorded Imports from other countries in the Nears East, Asia,
and Oceania increased in 1953 over 1952 but remained a small proportion
of total imports.
Imports from Western Europe and Hong tong fell from
$130 million in the first half of 1953 to $70 million in the second
half, accounting for the total decline in imports between the two periods.
Imports from the other areas remained constant or increased slightly
over the year.
The most dramatic development in the commodity
composition of Communist China's imports from non-Communist countries
in 1953 was the sharp drop in raw cotton imports from 43 per cent of
the total in 1952 to less than 5 per cent in 1953. There were sharp
:9 3ea'??Ta?'`S 2 on P.
S-E-C-R-3-T
.~ ~. wr r r r
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increases of imports in other major categories, such as rubber, iron
and steel; machinery and metalware, chemicals, drugs, and paper. Rubber
imports at 65,000 tons increased to 20 per cent of the value of total
imports, as compared with 9 per cent in 1952. Imports of iron and steel
increased to 110,000 tons and machinery and metalware to roughly 20,000
tons in 1953, as compared with negligible imports in these categories
in 19520
bo Unrecorded Imports. '
(1) Reexports of Western Imports by Soviet Bloc
Count ee.
(The following teat is takcn from EIC?R1-S2
since we have no new information to add.)
USSR and the
azt undetermined Eastern European Satellites
act as middlemen in obtaining
quantity
Communist China from non-Comm mist countries. This practice reflects
the fact that Western trade controls permit the shipment of some Foods
to European Communist destinations whose export is China is prohibited*
Not even a rough estimate of the total value of re-exports can be pre-
sented,
ieSM 2 an p,
5-E-Ca-R-?E-T
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Now
Table 1
Estimated Imparts of Cyst China
Ta be P rowed during I Iconfer+enae ,after
disomilions of unrecorded imports)
S-E- C &~s
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Te ble ,;_._.
Chinese Communist Imports from Non-Soviet Bloc Countries (Value)
1953
Thousands of US dollars
Recorded Imports Jan
-Jun
Jul-Dec
Total
Europe and Western Hemispherea
Brazil
2
470
472
BLEU 1
, 266
37
1, 303
Denmark
99
232
331
Finland 4
,754
3,282
8,036
France 8
,839
4,813
13,652
West Germany 11
,159
10,813
21,972
Italy 4
,571
946
5,517
The Netherlands 2
,256
1,019
3,275
Norway 2
,469
24
2,493
Sweden 2
,596
376
2,972
United Kingdom 13
,492
7,562
21,054
Canada no
ne
none
none
United States no
ne
none
none
Adjustment for c,.i,f ? 5
b
,150
2,957
8,107
Switzerland (o,j.f,)
6
,791
5,117
11,908
Subtotal (14 countries) 63,
444
37,648
101 092
Near East, Asia and Ooeaniaa
Australia 1,
143
3,831
4, 974
Ceylon 26,
797
26,384
53,181
Egypt 4,
182
7,347
11,529
India 1,
668
1,000*
2,668*
Malaya
40
1,674
1,714
Pakistan
23
3,540*
3
563*
Indonesia
2
2*
,
4*
Hong Kong 61,
585
29,825
91,410
Japan 2,
266
2,277
4,543
Adjustment for c,i.f, (5 percent) 4,
885
3,794*
8,679*
Subtotal (9 countries) 102#
59
79,674*
182,266*
Total Recorded Imports (as derived
from published statistics of 23
non-Communist countries) 166,
035
117, 32222*
2830357*
Estimates based on incomplete data,
subject to revision.
25X1
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Table.* ;Z-
Chinese Communist Imports from Non-Soviet Bloc Countries (Value)
1953
(Continued)
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(2) Traneenta of Western Ctae$m odi ties thrau h
Soviet Bloc-Countries.
(3) I3acao.
There are no published trade data available
rogard nI! acaotms exhorts to China in 1953. As in 1IC.R1-52, Corummist
ClA na' a; im orts . from :cacao must be estimated on the basis of ass= wd
= e t,rts of ..aaaofs (1) direct imports from abroad, and (2) imports
-from 1Ir=ng Kongo Ili- s figure excludes those oonr odities smuggled through
Macao h Ceamunist China from Hong Kong, Okinawa, and Japan,, which are
treated in the next section as smuggled imports from the originating
areas o
Ii rect its to `=acao from abroad by ocean-
going tee is of goods for report to Comim rust Chiral. apparently
increase in 1953 over 1952? There were an increased number of arrivals
Of Portuguese vessels sailing from Europe, and, while the nanifeat data
is not complete, it appears that larger cargoes of strategic materials
were c rrf ed three ship arrivals during
=lne? member 1953, each carried shipments of such cargo over 10.000
fns o
Kong Kong's recorded exports to ::acao in 1953
were slightly greater in value than in 19524 Exports of metals9 ma.chinert-,
l:nd natal manufactures declined from A2 million to $1 r.-illion, While
ex rte of pharmaceuticals increased from '$-i to 121 -,d ono These
develop:aents in the legal movement from Hong Kong to I3acao Of th#j
principal ooamna,Aties In demand in Cocarnmist China would. suggest that
the value of :.a $s rn.nexports to Communist China of Imports from Hong
Kong in ?1953 was probably close to the 1952 level, although the vole
or tonnagc of such reports was somewhat lowers
(4) Statistical G!ms and 5mu ~
S~FsaE~T
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S E----
? o
Table 3A
Ch.-Ines Communist and Macao Imports from Hong Kong (Volzmae)
(To be prepared during
S-E-Ct.E.-T
--ft --.w
conference)
25X1 C
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(a) Smuggling from Hong EM.
(The following represents essentially
the US position on Hong Kong smuggling by junks, small craft, etc. It
is hoped to reach agreement n an over-all estimate of such 25X1 C
unrecorded trade within the range of 10,000 to 20,000 tons. in addition 25X1 C
s e smuggling m Hong Kong had ceased because of an increased
surveillance by police and naval patrols, but that a certain amount of
smuggling continued, carried by speedboats and high-powered junks or
concealed in personal baggage and manifested cargo. The latter method
is possible on a modest scale because of wide-spread corruption among
local revenue -officers. F_ I the 25X1
current level of such smuggling of'strata c materials is 700 to 800
tons a month, (80400 to 9,600 tons a year) plus a small add1 tional amount
to Lap Sap Nei island. Th; s estimate compares with the US estimate of
10,000 to 30,000 tons in 1952.,
In addition to strategic materials, some
350 to 450 tons monthly of "luxury goods" (some 4,200 to 5,!400 tons a
year) are estimated to be smuggled through Chinese Communist customs;
since these goods are either prohibited from import or are assessed very
high import duties. this traffic 25X1
in luxury goods may s carried the amal' vessels p ng between Hong
Kong and C vmnist China;
25X1 C
25X1
(b) Rice imports from Thailand.
(This categor;,? probably sh-uld be dropped.
Hong Kong's recorded imports from Thailand approximately equals Thailand's
recorded emoorts to Hong Kong plus those exports re-orted to be "in transit"
through Hong Kong, Question of cargo carried by ships still open.)
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(c) X115 other.
Finally, account must be taken of the
effect of deficiencies in the statistics of non-Communist countries
trading with China and of the fact that unrecorded imports reach China
by sea routes from Japan, the Ryukyu Island, I-ialaya, the Philippines,
Indochina, Formosa, and Indonesia. The extent of this traffic cannot
be estimated with any degree of accuracy.
25X1
on quite a e snugC31ng o car parts has been
large scale with one ring alone discovered to have shipped
car parts to the value of .100,,000 and a volume of possibly 300 tons
under false declarations to Hong Kong for shipment to China. Also,,
snuggling agents are known to be among the crews of the ships In the
traffic between Singapore and Chinese Communist ports via Hong Kong,,
and it is probable that on each of the voyages smell lots of strategic 25X6
materials have been concealed on board by these agents and snuggled
into Commist Chinao
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20 ortgo
Cc nin mist China's exports to non-Communist countries in
1953 are estimated at 3311 million (Seep Table 4).* Exports to Europe
and the Western Hemisphere accounted fey over one-third of the value
of these exports, and the Near East, Aecia. and Oceania for the balance.
The 1953 estimate compares ulth a 1952 eati rate of 4265
milli one, representing a corrected and revised estimate of the $270 million
appearing in EIC-Rl?S2 (revised on the basis of later data and the estimate
that coi,.f. charges would be more accurat4v reflected by the formula
aesessi ngg 15 per cent of the total value of these exports for Europe
and the W.astern Hemisphere and 10 per cent for the Near East, Asia, and
Oceania)o
Exports to Ceylon consisted ma'hly of rice under an
intargoverm enta1 trade agreement,, while exaorta to Malaya consisted of
foodstaiffs and a varioty of products for the resident Chinese population.
ReW nod imports in ' .acao and Hong gong from Co monist China also consisted
largely of foodstuffs and native products,
*- -aim T le ii on po
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Table # q
Chinese Communist Exports to Non-Soviet Bloc Countries (Value)
1953
Thousands of US Dollars
Jan-Jun
Jul-Sep 0ot-Deo
Total
Europe and Western Hemisphere a/
Canada
992
50
50*
1,092*
United States
487
63
50*
600*
Belgium-Luxembourg
4,935
1,200*
1,200*
7,335*
Denmark
1,682
9
10*
1,701*
Finland
1,040
263
250*
1,553*
France
5,923
2,539
3,000*
11,462*
West Germany
15,555
9,666
10,000*
35,221*
Italy
4,003
2,161
2,000*
8,164*
The Netherlands
11,437
1,032
1,000*
13,469*
Norway
1,031
1,677
1,600*
4,208*
Sweden
512
300*
300*
1,112*
Switzerland
9,153
4,109
3,600*
16,862*
United Kingdom
11,520
8,034
1,200*
20,754*
Less c.i.f. charges ex-
cluding Canada and US
(15 percent)
-010,019
-4,639*
-3,624*
-18,282*
Subtotal (15 countries)
58,251
26,364*
20,636*
105,251*
Near East, Asia, and Ooeaniaa
Australia 2,182
1,028
1,000*
4,210*
Ceylon 20,469
13,187
9,300*
42,956*
Egypt 239
245
250*
734*
India 1,476
300*
300*
2,076*
Indochina 4,000*
2,000*
2,000*
8,000*
Indonesia 910
818
800*
2,528*
Japan 12,584
8,627
8,488
29,699*
Malaya 18,958
6,993
6,500*
32,451*
French Morocco 4,594
1,718
1,700*
8,012*
Pakistan 1,437
596
600*
2,633*
The Philippines 1,299
108_.,.-
100*
1,507*
Taiwan 2,936
1,316
1,500*
5,752*
Less o.i.f. charges excluding
the Philippines (5 percent) -3,489*
-1,841*
-1,622*
-6,952*
Subtotal (11 countries) 67,595*
35,095*
30,916*
133,606*
Hong Kongb 41,025
14,792
16,683
72,500
Total 1661871*
76 251* _681235*
311, 357*
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Table
Chinese Communist Exports to Non-Soviet Bloc Countries (Value)
1953
(Continued)
Estimates based on incompletedata, subject to revision.
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II. Trade
Be Trade with the Soviet Bloc
1. The Level of Trade
Data and intelligence on Sino-Soviet trade in 1953 are
extremely fragmentary, consisting largely of Chinese Communist published
statements as to percentage changes in 1953 trade over the 1952 level.
Furthermore, new intelligence since last year suggests that estimates of
1952 trade which appeared in ETC-R1-S2 should be revised to show a
balance, possibly at somewhat lower levels than were there indicated,
Ac=-dingly, in view both of the limited data and of the uncertainties as
to t--ade in 1952 (used as a reference year) estimates of trade must, for
the bime being, remain extremely tentative for both 1952 and 1953.
Early in 1953 the Chinese Communists announced that they
planned to increase their total trade by 32 per cent in 1953 over the
1952 level and to increase their trade with the Soviet Bloc by 37 per
cent. By implication these figures would indicate that the trade plan
called for an increase of 19 per cent in trade with non-Communist countries
and for an increase in the proportion of trade with the Soviet Bloc from
72 pear cent in 1952 to nearly 75 per cent in 1953.
In contrast to these relatively full statements regarding
their trade plan, Chinese Cammmist comment regarding actual trade in 1953
has been sparse and in general appears to indicate that the trade plan,
particularly with respect to imports, was not fulfilled. For examples,
a recent Chinese Co munist published statement dealing with actual trde
in 1953 describes the proportion of trade with the Soviet Bloc as in-
creasing from 61 per cent in 1951 to "over 70 per cent in 1953." This
vague terminology, and particularly the deliberate omission of the 1952
figure, indicates that the Soviet Bloc percentage in 1953 did not reach
75 pcr cent of total trade, which apparently was the Communist goal, and
suggests that it did not exceed the 72 per cent previously announced for
1952. Reasoning further from this statement, if the proportion of Com-
munist Chinese trade represented by the Soviet Bloc can be assumed to have
remained constant in 1953, then trade with the Soviet Bloc as well as
total trade could not have increased more in percentage terms than did
trade with non-Caarnunist countries. The latter figure - trade recorded
with non-Ccmmist countries - appears to have increased by only 15 per
cent, or less than half the rate contemplated in the 1953 trade plan.
Total trade with non-Communist countries, according to our
estimates above, creased by 15 per cent or close to the rate of 19
per cent apparently envisaged in the Chinese Communist"trade plan. Since
the Chinese Comnumists have publicly stated that their exports orts to non-
Coenhmist countries failed to meet their target, it may presumed that
`"""
from non- munist countries in 1953 must have been at or close
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In contrast, trade with the Soviet Bloc, planned to increase
by 37 per cent, apparently fell short of the target by a fairly large
margin. Since, according to Chinese Communist claims, total exports in
1953 attained 98 per cent of the planned level (and exports to the various
Soviet Bloc countries were at or above planned levels), it seems clear
that the over-all failure to meet 1953 trade expansion targets was pri-
marily a failure to secure the planned imports. In view of the reasoning
givens above, for believing that imports from non-Comm mist countries approxi-
mated.target levels, the over-all short-fall in planned imports must have
been specifically a failure to secure planed shipments from the Soviet
Bloc,
As concerns the trade balance, Chinese Communist statements
give no indication covering either the 1953 trade plan or the actual trade
which developed in 1953. The EIC-RI-S2 estimate of 1952 trade assumed an
import balance of $150 million, or the estimated maximum amount that
Communist China could have financed through its recurring sources of
non-trade revenue (the $60 million installment from the Soviet credit
plus earnings from remittances). This assumption has since been contra-
dicted by a later Chinese Communist statement that trade was balanced in
1953. This development may suggest that the Soviet Bloc ?fled to meet
planned deliveries in 1952 and that the short-fall was carried over into
the 1953 trade plan. This short-fall, together with continuing net re-
ceipts from non-trade items, would have enabled the Chinese Communists
to finance a substantial import surplus in 1953, and in view of Communist
China's pressing import requirements it is probable that the 1953 trade
plan provided for such an import surplus.
Consideration of the probable limitations of Communist
China's export capabilities also supports a presumption that the 1953
trade plan probably envisaged much larger increases in Communist China's
imports than in its exports and hence a substantial import surplus.
Ccmmnuaist China's exports in 1952 were already at a high level, and the
economy was operating under considerable strains - which would suggest
that the Chinese Communists would probably not have planned an increase
in total exports comparable to the very substantial (32 per cent) ex-
pansion planned for total trade.
There is no reliable basis, however, for estimating how
large an import surplus may have been planned. For present purposes it
is assumed that the planned import surplus for 1953 amounted to $300
million, or an amount equal to the presumed short-fall of $150 million
in 1952 imports plus an equal amount taken to represent continuing net
receipts from non-trade items in 1953. It is clear that this estimate
is to a large degree arbitrary but it probably would represent the
max m mi import balance that Communist China could have financed without
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additional credits; and available inteltigeonce appears to indicate that
no substantial new credits were extended by the UM in 1953.
On the basis of this reasoning a tentative estimate of
the trade in 1953 is presented below. To smnmarise the above discussion,
this picture of trade rests an the following assumptians and under1 ing
esthates:
1. It is assumed that the 3,953 trade plan provided for
an import surplus of '300 ariiliam.
2. It is further assumed that actual trade with the
C nn nd st moo in 1953 represented 72 per cent of
Cann mist China's total trade, or the same proportion
as vas announced for 1952.
3. Trade with non-Caamunist countries in 1953 is esti.
mated to have been 15 per cent above the 1952 level,
with estimated imports taken to equal. planned imports.
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(in millions of US dollars)
L%Xrts Escports Total Percent
of Total Trade
Zbtal Trade
1952 Revised / 1054 3050 2300 100%
1953 RIau cf 3535 1235 2770 100%
3,953 Astral 3205 1210dW 21s1$ 1 100%
Trade with t oq?
1952 Revived 320 265 585 28%
1953 plan 350 SI 350 700 25%
1953 Act l 350 320 670 W 28%
Trade with Moo
1952'Red W 730 785 2535 72%
1953 Plan 1185 885 2070 75%
1953 Actua1 855 890 171s5 W 72%
a, All figures rounded to nearest $5 m121ion.
b, In contrast to ETC-R'1-S2, total trade In 2952 assumed to be balanced
and exports to nan-Cosmaunist countries reduced by $5 mi7.ltcn on basin
of later data,
C. Totaa planned trade 32 per cent above 1952 - import surplus $300 mil110n.
d. Tots' encpoa is at 98 per cent of plan,
e. 15 per cant above 3952 level.
f, P1anied i est1mated to be squsl to actual imports,
S-E-C? R.
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The above estimates must be viewed as highly approximate and pro.
babes tend to be too highs Apart from the uncertainties inherent in the
underlying as#ions, the above figures will have to be adjusted to
take account of the fallaaing facto st
I? The H IC-RI-S2 estimate of trade in 1952 which was
used an a base for estimating the trade in 1953, probably will have
to be modified to avoid certain duplications,
2? The estimate. of trade with nm?Comtnunist countries in
1953 will prrobably have to be revised-toleke account of the
spore complete data that will be available at the conference,
If these adjustments turn out to be neceaaW, they would result in
a fairly sizeable ward revision in the eatimste of total trade ad
of trade with the Moe,
S?E??Ca.R.E.?T
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11. Trade
B. Trade with the Soviet Bloc
20 Seaborne Trade
no
MO-rA
A total of 790,000 tons of care;o is estimated to -have
preached China in 1953 from Soviet Bloc ports in Europe and in the Far
East. Of this total some 670,000 tons arrived from Communist ports in
astern Europe and approximately 120,000 tons a:'rived from the Soviet
Far East (see also section III B 110 p. .
The figures for 1953 represent an increase of almost
300,000 tons, or approximately 50 per cent, over the volume estimated
to have. moved in 1952. This change is accounted for by the rise in
shipments from Bloc ports in Eastern Europe and ., , in terms of conmoditiea s
by the increase in shipments of iron and steel, most of which are be-
lieved to have originated in Western Europe.
The description of the cargoes is not in sufficient
detail to provide an accurate estimate of the vaalue of Chinese Communist
imports from European Bloc ports9 A rough estimate of the value of
these shipments may, however, be calculated as followst
000 tons
Estimated
Value/To, j
Total Value
(
"REM-'s)
ones
dollars)
Iron and steel
100
$150
$60
Machinery, vehicles
100
500
50
Sugar, ammonium
sulphate 8s paper
95
100
10
Petroleum
17
50
1
All other
58
]It
Total
670
$200
$135
s EC-RdET
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There is little cargo information on the voyage.: _row
the Soviet Far East. However, the gross tonnage of shipping arrivals
was nearly identical with that of 1952, and included 5 arrivals of 29,000
GRT of non-Communist shipping and 41 arrivals of 252,000 GRT of Communist
shipping. The movements of these ships suggest that, as in 1952, many
arrived in ballast at Communist Chinese ports either for ship repairs at
Dairen or to pick up export cargoes for Europe. Over one-half of the
total gross tonnage of Communist shipping arrived in the months of
November and December, suggesting the movement of Soviet Far East merctuint
vessels to Dairen for re-fitting during the period when Soviet Far Fact
ports are frozen over. The cargo is therefore estimated at the 1952 level
or roughly at 120,000 tons, consisting principally of petroleum and paper.
b. +orts
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EXPORTS
:fin Non-Communist Vessels
Janes
my-Dec
J
Total 1953
_
18
19
37
GRT tons)
121
118
238
Total cargo (000 tons)
153
149
302
Iron ore
29
129
158
Pig iron
5
-
K
Soybeans and cake
16
-
16
Peanuts and cake
30
2
32
Maize and millet
19
-
19
Rice
?
5
5
Hempseed
4
-
4
Unidentified
50
13
63
In Communist Vessels
Voyages
26
41
67
GRT (000 tons)
161
251
412
Total cargo (000 tons)
191
279
470
Iron ore
47
3148
195
Pig iron
5
5
Apatite ore
?
7
7
Soybeans and cake
46
25
71
Peanuts and cake
7
4
n
Maize and millet
14
9
23
Sesame seed
1
-
1
Jute
2
-
2
Unidentified
74
81
155
Total Cargo all Vessels
344
428
772
Iran ore
76
277
353
Pig iron
5
5
10
Apatite ore
7
7
Soybeans and cake
62
25
87
Peanuts and cake
37
6
43
Maize and millet
33
9
42
Rice
-
5
5
Sesame seed
1
-
1
IThmpseed
4
-
4
Jute
2
-
2
Unidentified
124
914
218
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A rough estimate of the value of shipments from China
to Eastern Europe may be obtained as follows:
Estimated
000 tons
Value
on
Total Valuo*
kUB o
s)
(Million W
Iron ore*
353
$8
dollars)
$3
Pig iron
10
50
1 _
Soybeans
87
80
7
Peanuts
43
220
10
Maize and millet
42
75
3
Unidentified***
237
150
36
772
76
60
A11 figures rounded to nearest million dollars.
Includes cargoes of vessels leaving Yulin, even where unidentified.,
Consisting of cargoes listed as "unidentified" or "general," and
probably includes items listed above as well as such high-value
low-bulk commodities as tea and silk.
The volume of exports from China to Far Eastern Bloc
ports is not known. The GRT of Soviet Bloc shipping in this traffic,
however, shows an increase of about 10 per cent over 1952, from 201L,000
GRT to 221,000 GRT. For present purposes, the volume of exports to Far
Eastern Bloc ports is tentatively estimated at 100,000 tons, or the
level estimated for 1952. Again, as in 1952, the nature of the cargo
is not known, except for deck cargoes of lighters and launches.
6
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:3. Trade with the Soviet-Bloc
3. Over d TrTrade
a. arts
The volume of Chinats overland imports from the USSR
dining 1953 is tentatively estimated at between 1,500,000 and 2,000,000
t ns, which would include some 800,000.1,000,000 tons of petroleum,
150,0470?200,000 tons of military equipment, and 500,000-800,000 tons of
o Cher materialas, chiefly iron and steel, machinery, and metal manufactures.
Estimates of Communist China's consumption and pro-
ducti4n of petroleum products suggest that total imports of petroleum
p.roduwAts were approximately 1 million tons, of which seaborne shipments
are Arn to. have been about 100,000 tons. Most of overland petroleum
?M r'.s are believed to have been shipped by rail via Manchouli;
25X1
25X1
e r emn pro c
also believed to have been shipped by rail via Suifenho and by barge on
the Sfmgari, but the quantities cannot be estimated.
Estimates of military end-item and ammunition imports
must of course be highly speculative. According to a military intelli-
geney estimate, Comnuniet requirements for these imports totalled
3`x5,000 tons in 1952. ' This figure was based on estimated requirements
for supporting the Communist military forces in Korea as well as for
rig- q ipping some. units in China proper. The cessation of fighting in
Kccwrea presmnably would have greatly reduced import requirements in that
area] an the other hand it is possible that military imports for mod-
erDiz-.ng the Chinese Communist army were expanded when the fighting
stoppod in Korea. On an over all basis it is very roughly estimated
that s!ailitary imports amounted to 150,000 to 200,000 tons in 1953, or
about hale the estimated level of requirements in 1952.
Of the remaining overland is iron and steel is
believed to constitute an important tonnage. 25X1
viet iron and steel is being receive and
utiliiied in such fields ass (1) the Dairen Dockyards, (2) construction
in Has-bin, (3) construction and repair of mainline railways. Despite
the increased output of iron and steel In Est China : requirements
for special shapes and high quality materials are believed to have
r-,;ceauitate4 large imports. Seaborne imports from European Soviet Bloc
ports (1100,000 tons) probably constituted the largest source of such
irpor';,s. These seaborne imports originated largely in Western Europe
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SE-C.R-E?T
 Approved For Release 2004/07/09: CIA-RDP85S00- R000300130001-3
TkW
S.E-C-R-E-T
arkd probably consisted for the most part of standard shapes and qualities.
(Yerlaand shipments from the USSR, on the other hand, were probably com-
posed of materials to meet Communist China's requirements for special
it-cows as well as for materials for particular projects presumably agreed
upon during the Sine-Soviet negotiations, Such overland imports from the
USSR are tentatively estimated to have been approximately 200,000 to
300,00) tons in 1953.
In addition to iron and steel, shipments of heavy
machinery and equipment were made to some 50 plants vender construction'
or raated to have a capability
based on a daily average throughout the yaw- of handling 36 trains each
W ,W per day (. yPi) in through traf"fia between O!nsk and Vladivostok0 of
this numbers it is estimated that 2 trains are required for ani niantsn
essential peeoetima- personnel ant (including both civil and mili.
tart' persotmel), and 1 train for repair and r intenar services and
disruptions caused by snow, ics> floodss and accidents? The ,n?tng
33 trains 3 WD could be used for freight., each train carrying a not load
of 1sOpt) tons, giving a capability for freight haulms of about 330000
tons WPD0 Of the 33 trains, it is estimSted that 1 train would be needed
for carrying new rail, rain accessories, ties, ballast, and spare parts;
2, for raiby fuel; l0, for minim= civilian peacetime fright needs; and
!aa for military t iffic, This leaves a balance of 16 trains 1 JPD, or
16,000 tow PZJPD {508 million tons each ~ per year), for other needs,,
such as the supply of Coarnunist t ina and: Korea.
* The term capability as applied to railroads as used in this pager is
defined as. t maxi=an amunt of traffic which can be moved oar a rail..
road line far a sustained period with currently existing track facilities:,
operating methods, cars, 'and locaeottivesa . If Ganda for traffic ove.
UCCA Q-
J'his i,ab ~s rxcl deAs Ve3~i wk der as
V tikes as the hr~ve ar;?iveci t o n nCr
n
?
} !FY I,n4jutiddu as ISIG.
25X1
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 Approved ForV4Ree?lease 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO036 (R 00300130001-3
S-z- -R"3?T
Tai M6
Sm=at7 of Shipping (other than Oceftk-Going Over 10000 GRT)
Clearing Haig Kong for Coo mtet C)itn and Maoao,, 1953
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 25X1
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C E'.rI--- y py
of tL;Z E )
urh
t $t r .~. Ca"w-It i i ?i 1 #WiaC`I?'7,-' d. ? rtm
Fnn )
pp'' F ee
-yVrA
A da 1.-],Inn 1 n.. N.. g':O P, ,r.,a r
25X1
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
25X1
qt k 'Bar/Tientsin
A g.d.i gtao
ouch ''Thine,
a
to
6
47
2
ergo C~s~,,_x;.
C kpaCity bt
380
3C
96 553
Grand Total sal
637 956
_..,~
l'Fe~gte.,aa 4 '-___ ti__
ports,
sj ?p., r'y pJ.yi g .gr)?;,. .t 6snrage
r
k
25X1
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 Approved Fo%Please 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO03 00300130001-3
"'.8 8....1.
1 t b3r f orasa thou~~nrd-z of t nnL,
4,m bor
r
69
::?7O 405
34
295
4r4
662
,,, } :a4 :.cc1 des3 wesseis under 1 .0,00
. , s x^4 stex~{ `o 7 A
u oxviud.oss shipping between Chaxaea?r Cyr, a aan3; port
s::
?' 1:a tn.hie nvee@nts data on hose Soviet bloc es:< non ~?: ai.e . ,~
bsols that, are known to have depart.-,&d P',5?m f;cre.;?aan s t `;'i~nea":
,6, 1; 5 by voytges~ Veeseie have boon 1nt-1 ded ?;. many t: ;.:3e ,
a ny have departed for non Conamw.n1 t Chir. gee po,, is
25X1
. ;.~ d rry ng capacity has been : ,3mj)sa .er+ by teix . .pi,yth g r.;.2. 3
Approved For Release 2004/07/09, GIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
 Approve
d Felease 2004/07/09: CIA-RDP85S003000300130001-3
-Ajct~?v I'.:1 BLOC ITLIi,TIRED .tiTiLL'C HANT e ]Af .~`i..tT.x.T D EpAB.J. _A7
c MU CIS' C f :aV -ESE P f4.~ .TC
^e!.
1953
43
48
16-1
294 41,11
?Yq
22 a',
2?a I: h...,
231
2
>i~ `'.
'? hi z; thbie a ]x1es ships aayle ? 1 ,C os 5 e a t= ; .. ton-:-
table presents data on those non-Soviet bioe t wad; vessels i'., n` l'.?
,,, y4a to have departed from C omxu list Ch : .es pc t. ~ by oy :: ;es U ., _ y.
?a> v been nvi d.ed as maizy timee as thtay faun : dep ? : , l fo
; A roux.
r
~ 'r -o carrylrW, cnpaccity has boon computed by iuIt ,?..; ring ross
by
25X1
25
51 210,
61
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7/
 A rove
pp 7 d-F r release 2004/07/09 :CIA-RDP85S00000300130001-3
BLOC REGLSTF' , i11-i CRAW 3I{IF.PIJK
P'tr t'F"S BY C (JP TFtY OF ILS J S'';> ! D Fi '.:'z .a 1)1; t BY (AM-. ES IN 9
Un1tJ _
'w dozy
100
3.964.4,
29
73
x
.52
203
52,
39
181
39
2 4
1_3
21
14
[
!
j
1
9'
i. 4
8i 17
(57
x' . table exasiu.os vessels 9. ec. r 7. ,OCO oow r.G - a ;` ~ere tors,
4' ,eH : totals re pros tgy the actual. &.-,p art-. x ..., e h : ~ gls q uTJie a gi p! s c
~~{. ? v--t cd from ~A ..JYldfl fyq.iq..A eS'L: ?A 4..tl..1 C . V. ~.)G I v. l].i
,y'~ :q ~'..v'i,-,t'!~36 t irneyyjy~/4~'v she
.f. '1.' d
" ~.'?a?T@'R1qiL'~7J LM~.~B.i+F ~i4x'I~ Oy4.~ (
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 Approved F Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0O00300130001-3
25X1
ORIGIN OF VOTA S OF TWOU,^1OVIF ' BLOC REGIS I1 D L ~C fLirT aa~...,IPPI =#
M4, COMMISI? Chli1S m PORTS .1 ,
i;rkzChin&
Number ( oyx,,sznda o on
..~ Terj`ienta ire
156 81.9
nghat
101
?oing ao
65 46.3
Chinwttngt o
54 297
Oaz an
angkt.c
4l 222
5 IBS
is nkrty
1 2
?jtattnown
7 ;30
Total.
Cc ntrr1 China
,x.30
Swa-tovy
120
For -ow
16 34
s1aakoug
1 .4
Chuenchow
I 2
Total
1.38 298
Sat : i Chine
vs.w~.. ,v~;mpa ! Canto
rs
16 405
. ut in
x'oihow (tia.inatn
Island)
12
I
t ot
ii
89 .g1
4U ,WD ' QTAL
657
'h??e table excludes vessels tandex 1,,000 g oosa rc,iatereQ. to ,a~
b `:these totals represent the actual depa rtuz'es., ea.- h sh.Ip `.Oil f
:z sntmd as many times as she d'parted ftcn a Ch:t tose~ Co ?K:tarax~ :
.:tiz ?t for a non-Chinese omtnunist port -.
"rretspect1ve of the number or port cal19 wile 1.I CoE,siw t.'at
last known Chines port touched by a :tang-cor. !urai.^tt =tsoe.
J: ws .dered to be that origin of a return voftge :;
25X1
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 :CIA-RDP85S00000300130001-3
OF Y OIAGES ( NOL Sl: T .d.TJ t BLOC
N0 1VTOY, CO WC IST ChIk CSC P"AT
[~~6 ,(; IS 4 S -''%l
IN X95'
g;TMC+11:1 FT ~::.. j`
' Pj
cotlutR''y o ;'C Destination Wuniber
fi~nn,, ?? y~yy( thouoend?^
of /~(1 tons)
A5 A
.dong:tfon ::.
276
76:
109
53.i,
Ceylon,
40
Pakistan
17
Minya
15
53
Ind 'MA
7
char 1 And
1~a'L t
a ra East.
A,
2
Burma
Foriftona
2
1
Total 473
^E: her1 ndE4 27
e3,aaad 33
United 4:sragdom 21
31orway 7
jIV .DOO 6
a'%,,uma .im 6
ioYBta1C`k 4
ESQ I E;i.ab: ~a
-at c 3
?riesto 2
Finland 2
Aus tr?aa > value
(in thousands of U.S. dollars)
Jan.-.7
1t ne
in
-T-t.1
?
Swine
6,457
3,139
11,596
Fruits and vegetables
13,322
12,254
25,576
Egg Products
5,029
3,951
8,980
Other Foodstuffs
8,805
8,689
17,494
Bristles
2,361
2,343
4,704
Textile Fibres
2,873
4,852
7,725
Other Crude Materials
1!,,070
8,881
22,951
Tung Oil
3,511
2,009
5,520
Other anima]. and
vegetable oils
10,357
948
11,305
Textile products
5,019
5,791
10,810
Miscellaneous
9,470
6,796
16,266
81,274
61,653
142,927
Approved For Release - DP85S00362R000300130001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO03 000300130001-3
00MbtOD COb~QS, ~ Q 9F COMMUNIST CHINA'S EXMRRTS TO T-COMKTRIST
COUNTRIES OTHER KHAN Y30I im
Tons
70-00)
Coal 390
Rice 370
Soya beans 160
Salt 120
Cereals 60
Vegetable oil 58
Peanuts and cake 50
Sesame seed 40
Frozen eggs 16
Hemp seed ;0
Bean cake 7.5
Pork 4.
Tobacco 2
Wood oil .5
Miscellaneous 15
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25X1
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 Approved For Release 2004/0 - 5S00362R09d300130001-3
-21-
Table 6
Chinese Communist Exports to Non-Communist Countries (Value)
1953
Europe and Western Hemisphere 9/
Jan-Jun Jul-Sep Oct Dec Total
Canada
992
50
50*
i,O0,2:1
United States
487
63
50*
600*
Belgium-Luxembourg
4,935
1,0
75
600
6,610
Denmark
1,682
9
252
1,701*
Finland
1,040
263
600
1,553*
France
5,923
2,
539
2,960
11,462*
West Germany
15,555
9,
66
8,000
35,221*
Italy
4,003
2,1
61
500
8,164*
The Netherlands
11,437
1,
032
1,500*
13,469?
Norway
1,031
1,
577
1,600*
4,208*
Sweden
512
574
300*
1 112*
Switzerland
9,153
4,1
09
23,057*
16,862*
United'Kingdcm
11,520
8,
034.
10,520*
30,075
Less c.i.f. charges, ex-
oludi.na Canada n US
(at 15 peroent)~b~
-10,019
4,
655
4,484*
14,158*
Subtotal (15 countries)
58,251
2
6,
4.97
25,506
110,254*
Near East, Asia, and Oceania
Australia
2,182
1,
028
1,200*
4,410*
Ceylon
20,469
1
3,
187
8,108*
*
41,764.*
*
Egypt
239
245
200
684
India
1,476
315
300*
2,091*
Indochina
4,000*
2,
000*
2,000*
8,000*
Indonesia
910
818
500*
2,228*
Japan
12,584
8,
627
8,488
29,699*
Malaya
18,958
6,
993
6,500*
32,4.51*
French Morocco
4,594
1,
718
150*
6,462*
Pakistan
1,437
596
1,362*
3,395*
The Philippines
1,299
108
4.00*
1,807*
Taiwan
2,936
1,
316
1,500*
*
5,752*
Macao (c)
5,000
2,
500
2,500
10,000
Less c.i.f. oharges,exoludinq
the Philippine 4 at 5 pereent~b)-3,739*
-1,977 -1, 64.2*
7,4.52*
Subtotal (11 countries)
72,34.5
37,483 33,291
14.3,106*
Hong Kong '
40,437
14,581 16,44.6
71,464
Total
171,033
78,561 73,518
323,112
25X1
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA- DP85SO0362R000300130001-3
,f e-
Chinese Communist Exports to N'on-Soviet Bloc Countries (Value)
1953
(Continued.)
a Estimates based on incomplete data.
a. Figures for countries of Western Europe and Western Hemisphere
are based on the assumption of a two months' voyage. They
represent recorded imports for March 1953 through February 1954.
Figures for Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan, and Indo-
china are recorded imports for the months shown in the table.
Figures for remaining countries are based on a one-month voyage,
or imports of February 1953 through January 1954.
b. Data for Canada, the U.S., and the Philippines are recorded in
f.o.b. terms; hence no deduction is required from these figures.
All other countries record their imports in c.i.f. terms.
c. A figure fol? Macao's imports from Communist China is available
only on an annual basis. The figure has been prorated evenly
over the year.
d. Hong Kong's recorded imports from Communist China have been reduced
by one-half to avoid duplication arising from the prevalent practice-in many
countries of recording imports from Hong Kong of merchandise of Chinese origin
as imports from China. In these cases goods exported by Communist
China are recorded as imports by both Hong I:ong and by the country
of final destination. This adjustment of one-half was based on an
examination of the trade data of the countries involved.
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 Approved For Re4se 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85S00362RO4B300130001-3
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Table 4
Commodity Cottmoeition of
Recorded Chinese Communist Imports Tram Hrnng Sang (Viable)
1953
(in thousands of U.S. Dollars)
Commodity category Jan - Jun July - Dec Total
Other Foods, beverages and
tobacco
wool
1,905
871 2,776
Other Agricultural raw
materials
1,816
1,718 3,534
Dyeing, tanning, and
colouring materials
8,625
6,354
14,979
Medicines and pharmaceutical
products 23,841
6,087
29,928
Chemical fertilizers
4,968
4,025
8,993
Other Chemicals
3,937
2,313
6,250
Metal manufactures
2,965
2,442
5,407
Electrical machinery,
apparatus and appliances
1,841
1,395
3,236
Textile machinery
1,308
437
1,745
Transport equipment
112
78
190
Other machinery
2,282
661
2,943
Professional, scientific,
and controlling instru-
ments and photographic
and optical goods
60,627
2
9,476
90,103
25X1
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
TABLE 5
JANUARY - ERCELMM, 1953
JANUARY - JUNE
JULY - DECEbMM
JA UARY - DECEL
Method of Transport
China
Macao
Total
China
Macao
Total
China
Macao
Total
Ocean-going vessels
65
a)
65
70
1
71
135
1
136
River-steamers
( a)
15
15
a)
21
21
a)
j 36
36
Junks
30
29
59
27
21
4.8
57
51
107
Launches
a)
a)
a)
a)
a)
J a)
a)
a)
a)
Total water-borne
95
44-
139
97
43
147
191
88
279
Rail
20
a)
20
11
a)
11
31
a)
31
Road
2
a)
2
2
a)
1
3
a)
3
Total water-borne
and l k ] S l u - U V 1 1 1 G
I
I I L
31V
1 1
44 j
{
All
l u g
fi
I M
109
1
4.3
152
r
nn r
225
r 1
88 l
-51 2
Nil or negligible.
Minor discrepancies in totals are due to rounding.
NOTE; This table,
including goods exported m ong ng an
shows all recorded traffic
(2) goods exported to china from third countries via Hong Kong aid transhipped there. It does not include
transit cargo, i.e. cargo arriving in a ship calling at Hong Kong en route for China but not
transhipped in the colony.
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 Approved For Relesse 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0362R0 300130001-3
25X1
Summary of Communist China's Imports from
Non-Communist Countries, Recorded and Unrecorded
(in millions of U.S. dollars)
Recorded Imports (From Table 1)
Unrecorded Imports
Total, Recorded and Unrecorded 380
25X1
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 OR,
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Commodity Composition of Communist China's Known Seaborne Imports
from Non-Communist Countries other than Hong Kong; and Macao
(in metric tons)
From
Weste
~~
From
So
Near East,
uth and
h~
Fro~~m_~_/n
jj4
Total
Cormiodity
Raw cotton
10,700&
10,700
Crude rubber
68,400
68,400
Petroleum products
1,100
1,100
Paper and pulp
51,000
51,000
Textiles (including
unny bags)
300
1,000
1,300
g
Wool
3,100
1, 200&
4,300
Chemical fertilizer
183,800
2'7,900
211,700
Sodium compounds
36,700
36,700
Other chemicals
4,100
100
4,200
Pharmaceuticals
400
400
Coconut oil
10,200
10,200
Machinery and
instruments
3,000
1,700
4,700
Iron and steel
42,600
43,000
Miscellaneous
400
4,400
4,800
Unknown
14,800
14,800
3
300
14.]00
467.30
Total
a.
.
25X1
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85S00362R09d300130001-3
25X1
Recorded* Chinese Communist Imports from
Non-Communist Countries (Value) 1953
Countries Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Total
Europe and Western Hem sphe eJ
Belgium-Luxembourg
1,266
37
1,303
Brazil
2
470
472
Denmark
99
232
331
Finland
4,754
3,282
8,036
France
8,839
4,813
13,652
Italy
4,571
946
5,517
The Netherlands
2,256
1,019
3,275
Norway
2,469
24
2,493
Sweden
/
2,596
376
2,972
Switzerland (c.i.f.)b
.-
6,459
4,836
11,295
United Kingdom
13,354
7,562
20,916
West Germany
11,159
10,813
21,972
Adjustment for c.i.f. (10 percent,
except for Switzerland)
5,136
2,957
8,093
Subtotal
62.260
37,367
100.327
Near East. Asia and 0ceari a'
Austr
alia
1,143
3,831
4,974
Ceylo
n
26,797
26,384
53,181
Egypt
3,056
7,347
10,403
Hong
Kong
60,705
29,398
90,103
India
1,668
702
2,370
Indon
esia
2
26
28
Japan
2,266
2,277
4,543
Malay
a
50
1,674
1,724
Pakis
tan
23
3,532
3,555
Adjus
tment for o.i.f. (5 percent)
4,785
3,759
8,544
Subtotal
100.495
78,930
179,425
Total Recorded Imports
163,455
116.297
279,752
*As derived from published statistics of the non-Communist countries
concerned.
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 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85S00362R000300130001-3
25X1
a. Figures for countries of Western Europe and the Western Hemisphere are
based on the assumption of a two month voyage. They represent recorded
exports for November 1952 through October 1953. Figures for Egypt,
India, Pakistan, Malaya, Aus,ralia, and Ceylon are based on the
assumption of a one month voyage, i.e., they represent recorded exports
for December 1952 through November 1953. Figures for the remaining
countries are exports for the months shown on the table. All
statistics are converted at official exchange rates except Hong Kong
figures which were converted at an average free market rate of
HK : us$ 0.16675.
25X1 b.
25X1
tak
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 Approved For Release 2004 - 85S00362R04p,300130001-3
-13-
Developments During the First--Quarter-of 1954.
There were no striking trends evident in Communist China's foreign
trade during the first quarter of 1954. Such information as is presently
available is summarised below.
A. Recorded Imports from Non-Communist Countries
Recorded imports from non-Communist countries during the first quarter
of 1954 are estimated at % 63 million -- a rate substantially below that
of the first quarter of 1953, and 10 per cent, below the quarterly average
for 1953 but about equal to the rate of trade in the last half of 1953.
(We have no information available for estimating any trend in unrecorded
trade during the first quarter.)
Recorded imports from Western Europe were about 25 per cent. below the
average rate for 1953. Those from the U.K., France, Switzerland, and
Italy were lower, and those from Western Germany and Finland were about
10 per cent. higher. The partial information available on the commodity
composition of this trade indicates that chemical fertiliser, other
chemicals (including dyestuffs and pharmaceuticals) and wool continued to
figure largely at more or less the same levels; that recorded imports
of machinery and metals declined; while the general category of instruments,
equipment and apparatus assumed increased importance.
Recorded imports from Hong Kong increased somewhat from the low level
of the latter half of 1953 but remained slightly below the quarterly
average for that year as a whole. They consisted mainly of dyestuffs,
fertiliser and pharmaceuticals ('13.6 million), andAmaehinery, instruments
and equipment (%1.4 million). Ceylon supplied 14,000 tons of crude rubber,
about the average quarterly rate for 1953. Imports from Pakistan
(presumably cotton) rose to a level well above that for 1953.
The information at present available on the value of Communist China's
recorded imports during the first quarter of 1954.is summarised below:
In Thousand U.S. dollars
Year 1953 Jan-March 1953 Jan-March 1954.
Europe and Western Hemisphere
Belgium-Luxembourg
1,303 27 107
B:^az,.l
4.72 1 600
Denmark
i
l
37 74
03
F
n
and
8,
6 4,691 2,253
France
13,652 3,274 1,638
Italy
5,517 2,251 363
Netherlands
3,275 62 736
Norway
2,493 1,622 18
Sweden
2,972 1,203 266
Switzerland (c.i.f.)
11,295 1 820
1
974
UK
,
,
20
6
91
0049 3,973
1
Western Germany
21,972
2,484 6,343
Adjustment for o.i.f. (10
per cent. excluding
Switzerland)
8,093 2,570 1,637
Sub-total
100,327 30,091 19,982
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and Oceania
(In Thousand U.S. dollars)
Year 1953 Jan March 1953 Jan-March 1954
Australia 4, 974 318 147
Ceylon 53,181 1 4,68-j, 11, 041
Egypt 10,403 2,256 2, 601x
India 2,370 1,072 618
Indonesia 28 ~' -
11ong Kong 90,103 42,188 17,985
Japan 4,543 576 2,248
Malaya 1,72)+ 464
Pakistan 3,555 i' 5,9861
Adjustment for o.i.f. (5
per Dent.) 8,544 3,055 2,054
Sub-total 179,425 64,160 43,1141,.
Total Recorded Trade 279,752 94,25'1 63,126
X No data available. Figure taken at the quarterly average for 1953.
xx Based on partial data for the first quarter of 1954-
B. Volume of Shipping Enaed in the China Trade during the First
nu .rter o_ f_t954
1. Vessels of Nora-Bloc Flan;
During the first quarter of 1954 205 non-Bloc ships totalling
867,242 GRT arrived in Communist China from overseas as oompared with
156 non-Bloc ships of 734,990 GRT that arrived during the first quarter
of 1953. This volume of shipping is the highest quarterly total of
arrivals in China since the beginning of hostilities in Korea. It is
significant that the volume of tonnage arriving in March showed a
considerable increase over January, reflecting a trend which is expected
to continue throughout the year.
2. Vessels of Soviet B_loo flag
A total of 43 Soviet-Bloc ships of 231,598 GRT arrived in Chi rn & iiri.n
the first quarter of 1954, as compared to 26 Soviet-Bl.on ehi.rs of
147,000 GRT during the same period of 1953.
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I
C. Services to the Bloc by non-Bloc Countries
(1) By acquiring new and second hand ships from non-Bloc countries,
by placing Bloc ships for repair in non-Bloc yards and by chartering slips
from non-Bloc countries the Soviet Bloc has offset the limitations of its
transport system enabling art of its combined shipping tonnage to be
employed for carrying goods to and from China.
The Soviet Bloc merchant fleet, consisting of only 801 merchant
vessels (over 1,000 grt) totalling about 2,611,000 grt, is inadequate for
Soviet needs. Still included in this total are 83 U.S. owned Lend-Lease
vessels totalling 518,000 gross tons to which the U.S.S.R. has no legal
title or right whatsoever, but which they steadfastly refuse to return.
The adequacy of the Soviet merchant fleet should be viewed in the light
of the large number of ships that are over age,(about 56 percent of their
ships are over 30 years old) and that some 200c, are undergoing or awaiting
repairs.
(2) During 1953, 16 ships totall i ng 39,167 grt were delivered to
the Soviet Bloc from non-Soviet yards and one second-hand ship, the
ox Finnish tanker NESTE, was sold to the Bloc. Of the 16 ships constructed
for the Bloc 7 built in non-COCO?h countries were tankers (as defined under
International List I for embargo to the Bloc)
The significance of this construction can be judged in relation
to construction within the Soviet Bloc where, apart from three tankers
constructed in the U.S.S.R. and about seventeen vessels constructed in other
Soviet Bloc yards (some on U.S.S.R. account), all major construction
facilities are devoted to naval construction. (See Table 13, I and II).
(3) Repairs to Soviet Bloc vessels in non Bloc yards frequently
entail major repairs or overhauls which take a long time and which could
not be undertaken in the Soviet Bloc without diverting materials, facilities
and personnel from naval construction. During 1953, 4.6 Bloc ships totalling
204,633 grt were repaired in non-Bloc Yards as compared with 49 ships
totalling 246,000 grt in 1952 (See Table 13). It is notable that in 1953
Japan entered the list of countries repairing Bloc ships.
(4) The Soviet Bloc is believed to have chartered 509 vessels
totalling 2,325,000 grt for various periods during 1953. The principal
flags chartered to the Bloo were British, Norwegian and Italian. A detailed
breakdown is given in Table 12. Comparatively few of these ships made
voyages to China.
D. Scheduled voyages of non Bloc ships
During 1953 a total of 57 individual ships totalling 453,689 grt
(about 228,000 tons cargo-carrying capacity) made advertised scheduled
voyages to Communist China. These ships offered to Communist China
a share of their total cargo space. Sailings under the British flag
accounted for 59;0 of such voyages. (See Table 11).
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Cargo-Carrying
Capacity in Percent of A
i
l
P
rr
va
s
eriod Number of Arrivals Thousands,of Tons of PIon .Bloc Fla
_
Jan-June 1951 316
2
,023 91
Jul
-De
1
1
y
c
95
188
1
83
504. 3,24-1
Jan-June 1952 244 1,626 78
Jul
D
1
y
ec
952 288 1
991 8
3
1
Total 532 3>527 80
Jan-June 1953
397 2,905 82
Jul
-Dec 1
y
952
1+29 X001 80
Total 826 5,906 81
2. Non4A2c` Arrivals
The cargo-carryia capacity of the non-Bloc ocean-going shi
arriving in China in 1953 has been calculated as 4,788,000 tons tab A-2).
Sixty per cant of the 698 non-Bloc ships arriving were of British flag, a
drop from 65 per cent the previous year. Japanese registered ships,
appearing for the first time, accounted for 11 per cent of non-Bloc arrivals.
Norwegian, Danish and Finnish registered ships were the principal other flags
involved (Tab A-3).
With the exception of 45 vessels with a cargo capacity of 380,000 tons
all of these vessels arrived from non-Bloc ports (Tab A-!f.). Although the
per cent of voyages originating in Bloc ports increased from 4 per cent to
6 per cent as compared with 1952, this did not reflect any significant increase
in the percent of carrying capacity originating from Bloc ports.
It is known that, in addition to the arrivals of vessels above 1,000 GRT,
a number of small craft, including junks and launches, arrived in Communist
China frog Hong Kong. Also, river steamers, junks and launches plied
between Hong Kong and. Macao. The cargo-carrying capacity of these small
craft is believed to total slightly over a million tons. (Tab. A-6).
In addition to small vessels arriving in Communist China from Hong Kong,
a number of small craft may have made voyages to Communist China from Japan,
Okinawa and Formosa. The total carrying capacity of these craft is
unknown but is believed to be small in relation to that of small craft from
Hong Kong.
In addition to ships carrying goods directly to Communist China, non-
Bloc vessels are :.known to have carried cargo to ports other than Communist
China for eventual transshipment to that country. No estimate of the
capacity of the shipping engaged in this traffic has been made, but'any known
transhipped cargo has been taken into account in assessing the total amount
of China's imports.
3. Soviet Bloc Are ivals
The cargo-carrying capacity of Soviet Bloc shipping arriving in
Communist China in 1953 has been calculated at 1,118,000 tons. Of the
ships arriving 77 were of Soviet flag and 51 of Polish flag (Tab A-7).
Apart from 6 voyages originating in Ceylon, all Soviet Bloc vessels sailed
initially from Bloc ports (Tab A-8).
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-10-
IV. Shippingand Shipping Servicas
A. Introduction
The Communist Chinese merchant fleet is not suitable for voyaging
overseas; Communist Chinese ships are employed exclusively on voyages
between one Communist Chinese port and another, or on Communist Chinese
rivers. Thus, Communist China relies entirely on other nations shipping
for carrying her overseas trade.
Communist China's shipping needs are met in part by ships registered
in other Soviet Bloc countries and in part by ships of non.-Communist flag.
As shown in Table 10 a far larger numbex of non-Bloo ships are involved
in trading with Communist China than"A7Soviet Bloc ships.
The size and composition of the Soviet Bloc merchant fleet is given
in table 14. It will be seen that apart from Russia and :Poland the
contribution of the European Soviet Bloc; countries to the overall Bloc
shipping pool is negligible. The U.S.S.R. has insufficient ships for
other than her own domestic trade and apart from voyages between Dairen and
the Soviet Far East her ships seldom call at Communist Chinese parts except
on passage between Europe and the Far East.
Polish ships, however, are L?egularly employed on voyages between
Europe and Communist China. Although these ships fly the Polish flag
many of them are manned by Chinese crews and Communist China probably
has some direct part in the management of, and some financial interest
in, these ships.
B. Involvement of non-Bloc vessels
The term "involvement" as used in this report is arrived at by
counting the number of ships enroutesto or from, or in Communist Chinese
ports in a given month. The monthly totals given in Table 10 compared
with similar data for 1952 show that in any month in 1953 the number of
ships involved, whether Coviet Bloc or non bloc registry, was higher than
the peak month of December in 1952. The number of non-Bloc ships involved
varied in 1953 between 95 in January and 130 in May as compared with a
1952 ranCe between Its in January and 86 in December.
British shins made up about half 'the non-Bloc ships involved. A
notable change in 1953 conrared with 1952 is the appearance of Japan in
the listing for the first tine, constituting the second largest grouping;
while as a result of decree number 631, which prohibited Panamanian vessels
calling at Comr,r_inist Chinese ports, Panamanian ships virtually disappeared
from the list. The exceptions were three Panamanian vessels which defected
to the Communists in 1953 and two Panamanian vessels which loaded cargoes
in Commmxnist China early in 195): in violation of the decree. Finnish,
Greek, Swedish, Danish, French and Norwegian, in order of number of voyages,
were the principal other countries' flags involved in trade with Communist
China.
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Although the value of these unrecorded imports cannot be estimated
with precision, available evidence suggests that they amounted to
approximately 4100 million in 1953, or more than one-third of the
value of the recorded imports. The bulk of these imports probably
consisted of Western European commodities transshipped to Communist
China via Bloc ports in Eastern Europe and via Macao. The major
commodities involved included iron and steel, non-ferrous metals,
general industrial equipment, instruments and spare parts, and
chemicals.
2. Exports
Communist China's exports outside the Soviet Bloc, as
recorded for 1953 by the non-Communist countries concerned,
are estimated at $323 million as compared with $270 million
in 1952 (See Table 6).
Analysis of available cargo information indicates that
the volume of these exports was about 1,300,000 tons, made
up largely of foodstuffs other agricultural products and
coal (See Tables 7 and 8j.
Exports to Western Europe in 1953 amounted to approx-
imately $110 million and consisted mainly of vegetable oils
and oil seeds, egg products, and cereals. Western Germany
($35 million) and the U.K. ($30 million) were the major
markets in this area.
Of the remainder, approximately $115 million were
exported to Hong Kong, Malaya, and Macao, consisting largely
of foodstuffs and native products for the resident Chinese
population in these areas. Exports to Ceylon ($40 million)
consisted largely of rice, exchanged for rubber under an
inter-governmental barter agreement.
B. Trade with the Bloc
There is no reliable information available on the volume of
Communist China's imports from other countries of the Communist bloc.
Published claims of Chinese Communist officials on this subject for
the most part consist of percentage data, which often are ambiguously
phrased and sometimes are mutually inconsistent. These data
probably exaggerate the volume of Communist China's total trade,
and in particular the volume of its trade with the rest of the
Communist Bloc.
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According to the most recent of these Chinese Communist claims,
trade with other Communist countries represented 75 percent of
Communist China's total trade, or three times its trade with non-
Communist countries. It is probable, however, that a significant
portion of the trade treated by the Chinese Communists as with the
rest of the Bloc actually consisted cf trade with Western countries
in which Bloc countries merely acted as intermediaries or forwarding
agents. To this extent at least the: above claim overstates the
Soviet Bloc's share in Communist China's total trade. If allow-
ance is made for this type of exaggeration it may be assumed for
present purposes that Communist China's total foreign trade
(imports plus exports) in 1953 was approximately $2 billion, of
which about two-thirds represented 'trade with the rest of the
Soviet Bloc.
Communist China's imports from the Soviet Bloc probably in-
cluded a substantial portion of those types of strategically impor-
tant indus trial products and equipment c were denied er as
direct imports by the principal Western nations. TF,ao(include`
military equipment, arms, and ammunition.)
On the basis of the capacity of the shipping engaged in this
trade, it may be roughly estimated that Communist China imported
approximately 700,000 tons of cargo from Bloc ports in :eastern Europe,
of which probably almost half consisted of goods of Western European
origin. It is estimated that somewhat more than half of this
700,000 tons was carried in Bloc flag vessels and somewhat less
than half in nnn-Bloc flag vessels.' During the latter '!ialf of the
year, the cargo carried in COCOM flag vessels was virtually confined
to non-strategic goods but ships of other non Bloc countries (mainly
Sweden and Finland) carried an increased proportion of ,strategic
cargoes.
Communist China's overland imports from the Soviet Bloc probably
were considerably larger in volume that its seaborne imports from
Bloc ports.
III. Ca aci of Shipping Arriving .n Communist China
1. Introduction
During 1953, 826 ocean-going ships (128 of Soviet Bloc and 698
of non-Bloc registry) arrived in Communist China from outside ports.
This represents an increase of 55 per cent in the total ships and of
39 per cent in the ships of non-Bloc registry as compared with
arrivals in 1952. The cargo-carrying; capacity of these vessels has
been calculated as 5.9 million tons, a 67 per cent increase over the
previous year. (See Table 8.)
A table showing year-by-year changes in the number of arrivals,
in cargo-carrying capacity and in the percentage of arrivals which
were of non-Bloc registry is set forth below.
.1 over th
e
1., is ? j z : fj( Zrf,&Z. 1 w o
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Hong Kong's recorded exports to Communist China (largely
re-exports of Western European products) consisted principally
of drugs, chemical fertilizers, dyes, other chemicals,
machinery, watches, and instruments (See Table 4). From other
Asian and Near Eastern areas, Communist Chinals principal
imports consisted of crude rubber (all from Ceylon except two
small shipments from Burma), raw cotton, jute, and wool (See
Table 3).
In overall commodity terms, the most dramatic development
during the year in Communist China's import trade with the non-
Communist World was the sharp drop in raw cotton imports -
from 43 per cent of the total value of all imports in 1952 to
only 5 per cent in 1953. In general, imports of other major
commodity categories rose sharply. Rubber imports of 68,000
tons represented 20 per cent of the total value of all imports
in 1953 as compared with only 9 per cent in 1952. Finally,
1953 imports of iron and steel increased to 110,000 tons, and
machinery and metalware to roughly 20,000 tons, as compared
with negligible 1952 imports in these categories.
The shifts that have taken place in Communist Chinats
recorded imports from non-Communist countries may be noted in
the following rough estimates of the commodity composition of
these imports since 1950.
(in millions of U.S. dollars)
Metals, ma-
Other
c
te &
Cotton Rubb
er
Drugs Ch
i
a
em
cals
ls
ent Other Total
ui
1950 95 61
20 35 125 78 414
1951 41 110
25 65 110 93 444
1952 108 23
25 40 20 34 250
1953 16 54
40 55 70 45 280
b. Unrecorded Imports
Evasions of Cocom and other official controls most commonly
take the form of false declarations of ultimate destination, thus
facilitating the shipment. of controlled goods to Communist China
by circuitous routes. When controls are circumvented or evaded
in this manner, the exports involved are not identified in the
trade statistics of the country of origin as exports to Communist
China.
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II. TRADE
A. Trade With Non-Bloc Countries
1. Tworts
a. Recorded Ii
The value of.Communist China's recorded imports from non-
Communist countries in 1953 was $ 280 million (See Table 1),
as compared with $ 250 million in 1952. In the first half of
1953 these imports continued the trend of expansion evidenced
in 1952, reaching a level 23 per cent above that of the last
half of 1952 and 47 per cent above that of the first half of 1952.
These imports, however, declined sharply in the last half of 1953,
to 70 per cent of the level of the first half of the year.
The volume of recorded imports from non-Communist countries
in 1953 is estimated at 692,000 tons, as compared with 497,000
tons in 1952. (See Tables 3 and 5.)
During 1953 Communist China's direct imports recorded from
the Western Hemisphere continued, as in 1952, to be negligible.
Direct imports from Western Europe, however, increased four-
fold, and accounted for 35 per cent of the tota:L value of
recorded imports from non-Communist countries in 1953, as com-
pared with only 10 per cent in 1952. The proportion of imports
from Ceylon also increased sharply from 10 per cent of the total
in 1952 to 20 per cent in 1953, while the proportion of imports
from Hong Kong remained at slightly over 30 per cent.
from Pakistan declined strikingly from nearly La) per cent to
only 2 per cent of the total (reflecting a precipitous drop in
total cotton imports). Recorded imports from other countries
in the Near East, Asia, and Oceania increased in 1953 but
nevertheless remained only a small proportion of total imports.
Imports from Western Europe and Hong Kong fell from $ 125
million in the first half of 1953 to $ 70 million in the second
half, accounting entirely for the over-all decline in imports
between the two periods. Imports from other areas remained
constant over the year or increased slightly.
Communist China's heavily-increased direct imports from
Western Europe, valued at approximately $ 100 million in the
published trade data, consisted principally of iron and steel,
other metals, machinery and equipment (including .catches and
instruments), chemical fertilizers, industrial chemicals,
pharmaceuticals. and wool (See Table 3). In addition,
a large volume of commodities of Western European
origin (consisting principally of iron and steel with smaller
amounts of other metals, of machinery and equipment, and of
chemicals) reached Communist China by transhipment via Bloc
ports in Eastern Europe or via Macao, but do net appear to have
been recorded in Western European trade statistics as having
been exported to Communist China.
(See following section on "U,zrecorded Imports.")
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I. SUMMARY OF MAJOR DEVELOPMEN75 DURING 1953 AND THE FIRST
UARi. 0r 195-
A. Trade with Non-Communist Countries
Communist China's total imports from non-Communist countries
in 1953 are estimated at $310 million. Of this total, $280 million
(compared with 0250 million in 1952) were recorded as exports to
Communist China in the published statistics of the exporting
countries, as follows:
$
millions
Ex r ting Area
1953
1952
Western Europe
100
23
Ceylon
55
23
Hong Kong
95
86
All other areas
30
118
Western Europe's recorded exports to China consisted mainly
of iron and steel, machinery and instruments, chemicals and wool.
The major exporting countries - Western Germany, the U.K., France and
Switzerland - accounted for most of the fourfold increase in imports
from this area. Imports of rubber from Ceylon increased from 23,000
to 65,000 tons; and imports from Pakistan (mainly cotton) dropped
from $95 million in 1952 to only $4 million in 1953. Imports from
Hong Kong remained relatively unchanged. The level of recorded
imports declined sharply in the second half of the year. Most of
these recorded imports were shipped direct to China from the areas
of origin.
A further $100 millions' worth of goods is estimated to have
reached China, mainly from Western Europe, by devious routes,
including:
(a) Commodities diverted to China by means of tranship-
ment after leaving Western European countries of origin ostensibly
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for other destinations. Most of these goods were transhipped to
China-bound vessels at Gdynia, but sane went overland.
(b) Cormnodittes Via Macao. This consisted of the bulk
of the cargoes (mainly metals, machinery and equipment) carried from
Western Europe to Macao (the declared end-destination) in Portuguese
ships and then re-exported, together with a small quantity of goods
from Hong Kong.
(c) Smuggling from Hong Kong and other Far Eastern areas
in small craft and via overland routes.
B. Trade with the Soviet Bloc
Communist China's imports from other countries of the Soviet
Bloc included a substantial portion of those types of strategically
her as, direct imports by the principal Western nations. They-ciao
(includV4 military equipment, arms, and ammunition.>'--
There is no reliable information available on the value of
Communist Chinese trade with the rest of the Communist Bloc and hence
on the value of its total trade. Chinese Communist official claims
on this subject are believed to be exaggerations,-particularly
since some part of the trade treated by the Chinese Cormnunists as
with other countries of the Communist Bloc actually consisted of
trade with Western countries where Bloc countries appear to have
acted merely as intermediaries or forwarding agents. If allowance
is made for such exaggerations, these official claims indicate
that Communist China's total trade in 1953 was approximately
$2 billion. Of this total about two-thirds probably represented
trade with other countries in the Communist Bloc
C. Shipping
The upward trend in the number of vessels arriving in
Communist China during 1952 was continued in 1953 and in the first
quarter of 1954. During 1953, 826 vessels totalling 3,937,000
gross registered tons arrived in Communist China, as compared with
532 arrivals totalling 2,357,000 gross registered tons Ln 1952.
The total number of ships involved in. trade with China increased
by 39 % over 1952.
Contributing to this increase were 41, arrivals of British
ships compared with 280 in 1952, 128-Soviet Bloc arrivals compared
with 103 in 1952, 28 Finnish compared with 5 in 1952, and 77
Japanese arrivals totalling 465,000 gross registered tors -
participating in this trade for the first time since controls
against Communist China were imposed in 1950.
On the other hand Greek vessels ceased to participate in trade
with China after May 1953. This resulted from Greek legis]ation,effective on
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TAB 0-5
VOLUME OF SOVIET BLOC SHIPPING INVOLVED IN CC1MUNIST CEtNESE SEABORNE TRADE BY M3NTHB, 1953 il
TOTAL SOVIET C/
POLISH d/
(GET go / GR
Paity (th
sands (thousands s
Number of t
)
f
T Cargo f GRT
ou- Capacity Cargo ty
ands (thousands sands Capacity
(tho
d
ons
o
tons) Number of
usan
s
tons) of tons) Number
f t
)
o
ons
of
January 4.3 249 375 25
eb
F
u
ary 48 2k 427 31
135 203
1
18 114 172
u
Fe
c
36 196 294
79 269
17 105 158
. 17
April 39 231
81 121
19 115 173
347 18
m a
105 157
21 1
6
y 35 210 316 15
June 34
2 2
99 1
88 133
2
190
20 122 183
00
4
Jul
74 111
20
1
7
22
y 27 i
9 8
A
8
35
188
7
ugust 28 159 236 11
September 35
305 14
8 3 0
55
7
1
4
117 175 7
1
156
October 36 210
315 13
4 110
30
2 21 1 130 195
November 38 219 3
28 16 8
72
107
23
138 29
December 53 316 476
30
9
133
5
22
1
2
2
1
74 z64
42 21
23 14
2i2
a. Exclude vessels under 1,000 gross registered tons.
b. Cargo-carrying capacities have been calculated by multi 1
c. 82 different Russian ships y $ Yid gross tonnages by 1.5.
(74 cargo vessels, 8 tankers) of 445, 987 GRT with a cargo carrying capacity
of approximately 669,000 tons were involved in trading with Communist China during 1953. About one-third
of these ships arrived from the Far East, some for repair.
d. 28 different Polish ships (25 cargo vessels, 3 tankers) of 172,591 GRT with a cargo carrying capacity of
approximately 259,000 tans were involved in trading with Communist China during 1953.
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D
N01d--BLOC FLAG VESSELS IN CHINESE WIMITNIST COASTAL TRhPP
1953
1. ADSIRAL HARDY Br 1929
2. SLAP JR
5. INCEISLAY Br 1791
6.
nay
1908
1935
Br
4312
9.
NORTEERN GLOW
Br(CC)
5135
10.
SAN EDUAEDO
Br
2994'
11.
SIJNNAt1BRIS
Sw
4501+
12.
TAIL
Br
2171
Traded North and Central Chinese ports in March.
.Engaged in general coastal traffic during August, November.
Traded North China ports in February and March.
Engaged in general coastal traffic during June. and October.
Engaged in general coastal trade in August, September
General coastal trade in October, November, December.
Departed Hongkong 28/12 for Swatow and Tsingtao; operated coastwise throughout
January.
Traded Central and North China ports in March and April*
Engaged in general coastal traffic during June.
Operated coastwise in August, September and November.
Traded Central and North China ports during May.
Coastal trade in August.
Coastal trade in August.
Engaged in coastal trade during November.
Coastal trade in August, November and December.__
Traded North China ports in January, February and March.
Engaged in general coastal t raffia throughout the remaining part of the year
Engaged in coastal trade in September, October, November and December
Traded Dairen-SwatoW during Jaauy.
Traded Dairen- Taku Bar-Swatow in February.
General coastal trade in October and December.
25X1
25X-1
Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
 Approved For Release 200,007/09 CIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
TAB. G7
COMMUNIST OWNSI) M RCHANT VESSELS WHOSE PANAMANIAN RMISTRIES ARE KNOVlN TO HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED IN ACCORDAICE WITH THE PANAMANIAN GOVERN'S DECREE NUMBER 631
YESSEL
GROSS TONS
MANAGER/operator
A:Uh.DULCS
1544
Hai Ying Steamship Co., Ltd., Hong Kong (last known owners)
CAPIrS
2117
Wallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
Ei, GRANDE
6175
Great China Steamship & Industrial Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China
EVANTHIA
6419
Believed to be Union Maritime a Shipping Go., Ltd., England
(Registered Owner - Pierre Aiychides, Panama/France)
FAIRSIDE
3350
Wheelock Marden & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
KAIEORAI
3151
Grande Shipping Corp., S.A., Panama and Hong Kong
LA GAMMA
1789
Ming Sung Industrial Go., (Hong Kong), Ltd.
MARION
3310
Walleri & Co., Hong Kong
3QRAMAR
4764.
Wheelock Marden & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
NAVIDAD
6181
Wallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
DAR
1321
Wallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
6103
Wallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
NOBINA
3451
Wheelock Marden a Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
ORBITAL
1555
Far East Enterprising Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
ROMANTICO
1221
Wheelock Marden & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
ROSTRO
5330
Wallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
 Approved For Release 2004/07/09 : CIA-RDP85SO0362R000300130001-3
P13. C- (C ont' d)
VESS_,
GROSS TO'
YVAIGER/Onerator
SAGEN
3944
Wallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
STARSIDE
3351
Grande Shipping Corporation, S.A., Panam and Hong Kong
STORBAY
11.191
hWallem & Co., Ltd., Hong Kong
WE