INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE PROGRESS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000200140026-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: November 14, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

S-E-C-R-E-T
Security Information
IAC -PR -28
14 November 1952
1.
SE-33:
2.
NIE-42/1:
3.
NIE-4+7:
4.
NIE-64
(Part I)
5.
NIE-72:
6.
NIE- 75:
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
PROJECTS COMPLETED
Pros ects for Survival of Mossade Regime in Iran,
published 1 October 1952.
The Current Situation in Albania, published
20 October 1952.
Communist Intentions and Capabilities in Asia,
published 31 October 1952.
Soviet Bloc Capabilities, through Mid-l9 3,
published 12 November 1952"Appendices to follow)
Probable Developments in the Union of South Africa,
published 20 October 1952.
Probable Developments in Iran throh 1953,
published 13 November 1952.
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
A. National Intelligence Estimates
7? NIE-21/1: Austrian Security Capabil.ities__Following Withdrawal
of Occupation Forces
Priority: Urgent*
Status: Board circulated to the IAC a draft, which
it had prepared at request of Secretary of Defense,
with the proposal that the IAC approve its publica-
tion as NIE-211. The IAC approved this on 12 November.
The IAC representatives are scheduled to meet on
14 November.
*Priorities used in decreasing order of urgency
are: Crash, Urgent, Routine, and Deferred.
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8. NIE-40: Potential Militar Economic and Scientific
Accretions to the USSR Resulting from the
Acquisition of Western Europe in the Fore-
seeable Future
Priority: Routine
Status: Scheduled by ONE in late May 1951 (see
Item 14, IAC-D-l, dated 1 November 1950). Referred
for action to EIC in June 1951? On 10 November,
with the concurrence of the Chairman, EIC, the
Board agreed to drop its current draft and to
recommend to the IAC that the estimate be cancelled.
?
9. NIE-45: Probable Attitudes and Policies of the Free World
toward the East-[Jest ~ct
Conflict
Priority: Routine
Status: At the IAC meetings on 14 and 24 April
TIAC-M-67, paragraph 6, and IAC-M-68, paragraph 1),
it was agreed that an estimate on this general sub-
ject would replace NIE-45, cancelled by the IAC.
Terms of reference were prepared by ONI and submit-
ted to ONE on 5 May. On 13 May, ONE circulated these
with recommendations for modifications. All agencies
concurred. Board action on revised terms of reference
was deferred pending progress on NIE-64 (Part II).
On 7 November, the Board directed the Staff to
reactivate this estimate.
10. NIE-56: Likelihood of Loss of Important Economic Resources
of the Far East
Priority: y: Routine
Status: A series of estimates to cover various areas ce
authorized by the IAC on 11 October at the request
of G-2. EIC contribution was received on 24 April.
A draft is under consideration in ONE.
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11. NIE-59: Relative Strate is Importance of East-West Trade to
the Orbit and to the Rest of the World
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated in response to NSC requirement.
On 1 November the Project was referred to the EIC
by the IAC representatives. The draft of the EIC
working group was received on 3 October. A preliminary
draft is under consideration in ONE.
?
?
12. NIE-63: France's Prospective Ability to Pla a Major Role
in the Western Security System
Priorit2: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board. IAC representatives met
on terms of reference on 7 April. A Staff draft
is under consideration in ONE.
13. NIE-61+ : Soviet Ca.abilities throu h Mid-1951+
(Part I)
Supplement Priority: Urgent
Status: ONE, in consultation with the IAC agencies,
is drafting a supplortnent designed to extend the
period of the estimate from Mid-1953 to Mid-1954.
14. NIE-64 : Probable Soviet Bloc Courses of Action Through
(Part II) 1 953
Priority: Urgent
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board. Target date: mid-November.
Board concluded its review of Staff draft on
31 October, The IAC representatives held their
first meeting on a draft on 12 November.
15. NIE-65: Soviet Bloc Ca abilities, through 1
957
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board. IAC representatives approved
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terms of reference on 6 June. Defense contribution
due 1 December; OIR and ORR contributions due
15 December.
16. NIE-70: Conditions and Trends in Latin America Affecting
U. S. Security
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14 November 1952
Priority: Routine
?
Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2.f. of
Board Program of Estimates circulated on 5 May 1952
and IAC action on ONE memorandum dated 29 April.
Draft forwarded to IAC representatives on 29 October.
At State request, meeting of the representatives
deferred until week of 17 November.
17. NIE-71: Probable Outlook for Italy
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2.d. of
Board Program of Estimates circulated on 5 May 1952.
A draft is being prepared in ONE.
18. NIE-73: Conditions and. Trends in the Middle East Affecting
U. S Securitay_- - .__.._.
Priority: Routine
Status: The Board recommended to the IAC on 26 June
the scheduling of this estimate. JAC concurred on
3 July on which date the IAC representatives met
on terms of reference. Contributions were all in
by 9 September. A Staff draft has been completed,
19. NIE-74+: Probable Developments in Burma through 1953
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by State and approved by the
IAC on 30 September. JAC representatives approved
terms of reference on 1 October. Contributions were
due 10 November. Contributions of ONI, AF, and G-2
were in by that date.
?
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20. NIE-76: Implications for the West of Probable Development
s
21. Status of Soviet Medical Research
Initiated by CIA and approved by SIC for Production. Under
review in OSI.
B. Scientific Intelligence Estimates
The following projects were referred to the SEC on 16 October 1952,
with determinations as follows:
22. Status of Soviet Development in the Field of Physics. To be
completed as a joint project. Contributions have been received
from agencies and a draft will be ready for submission to the
? SEC Members in November 1952.
23. Status of Soviet Chemical Warfare Pro ram. Cancelled.
21+. Status of Soviet Metallux .y pro ram. To be completed as a joint
project. Contributions have been received from various agencies
and the first draft should be completed by 1 January 1953.
25. Development and Utilization of Science in the Soviet Union.
Cancelled. Upon publication of NIE-~'"
will be re-evaluated.) the need for this study
Other Pendin Projects:
26. RDB Re uest for Intelli ence Estimate of Soviet Scientific and
echnolo~ical Cabities IAC-M2, M-73, D-5
To be handled in connection with NIE-65.
25X1
C. Economic Intelli ence Estimates
27. Economic Capabilities for War of the USSR and its Satell;tpp
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Prio: Routine
Status: Requested by G-2 and approved by the IAC
on November. Staff is drafting terms of reference.
14 November 1952
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14 November 1952
by 11 December. The study has been divided into two phases:
(1) Cold war capabilities, 1952-1953 - contributions have been
received by the Working Group and have been used by ORR in the prepa-
ration of NIE-64+ and NIE-65. Summary working paper scheduled for com-
pletion on 15 November. (2) Capabilities for hot war beginning 1 July
1952 and 1 July 1954; no target date has been set.
D. Other Items of Concern to the Committee
29. Intelligence Deficiencies Revealed in SE 27 (IAC-D-57)
On 30 October the IAC members noted this report.
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