INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE PROGRESS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000200140008-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 21, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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IAC -PR-9
21 March 1951
IidTELLIGENC~ ADVISORY COMPJIITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
PROJECTS COPJIPLETED
A. Intelligence Estimates
~~
1. SE-2: Probable Effects on Soviet Intentions and
Capabili ies o Arming the Japanese National
Police Reserve as Four Fully Equipped Divi-
sions. Published 21 Februar~r.
2. SE-3: The Current Crisis in Iran. Published 16 Pdarch.
3. NIE-9: Turkeys Position in the East West Struggle.
ruoiisnea ~o Fe ruary.
4. NIE-20: Resistance of Thailand, Burma, and IJlalaya to
Commun~.st Pressures in the Event of a Communist
Victory in Indoc ina in 191. Pub isle ?_0 March.
5. NIE-22: Vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc to Economic
Warfare. Pu lished 19 February
6. NIE-29: Probability of an Invasion of Yugoslavia in
1951. Advance copy of Conclusions published
~PQarch; full estimate published 20 March.
B. Other Items of Concern to the Committee
7. National Intelligence Surveys - IAC decided on 15 March
to retain the rate of NIS ~ s per year for the pres~e~nt
8. Exploitation of Captured Sources - IAC members agreed on
tYie rple of the civilian agencies. The formal agreement
between CIA, State, AEC.and FBI has nat yet been signed,
PROJECTS TN PROCESS,
A. Intelligence Estimates
9. SIE~1: Current Soviet Activities with Particular
Reference to the gar East.
SECRF,T
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21 March 1951
Prime Urgent
Estimated Date of Publications 2 April
Status: This estimate was initiated by the IAC at its
meeting on 15 March. On ~.7 March the IAC representatives
agreed to terms of reference and further agreed to bring the
agency contributions to a meeting scheduled for 2:00 Fri3day
the 23rd.
10. NIE-6: Iranss Position in the East West Struggle
P~'1-____arity: Formerly Routine now Urgent
Estimated Date of Publication: 3 April
Status; On 20 March the National Estimates Board reviewed a
draf t. Draft now in the process of revision will be circulated
to the IAC agencies about 22 March.
11. NIE-13: Prospects for the Creation of an Adequate Western
European De ense ~----
Priority; Routine
Estimated Date of Publication: Late April
Status: The IAC representatives met on 2 March and again on
March to consider a draft. The draft was then revised in
the light of these discussions. A revised draft is now being
reviewed by the National Estimates Board.
12. NIE-19: Feasibility of Japanese Rearmament and Alignment
with the United States
Priority: Formerly Routine now Urgent
Estimated Date of Publication: !~ April
Status: Terms of reference were approved by the IAC represen-
~ves on 3 Jarniary. Contributions from the agencies ~*e
received on 12 January, Draft was circulated to the National
Estimates Board for action on 7 February, $oard on 13 February
deferred consideration of the draft until the 27th when it was
~ Note: Priorities used, in decreasing order of urgency are:
Crash, Urgent, High Routine, and Deferred.
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apprised of the results of the Dulles mission. Draft has
been revised and will be circulated for Tational Estimates
Board action on 21 March:.
13. NIE-23: India+s Position in the East ~~Test Conflict
Priority: Routine
Estimated Date of Publication: Early May
Status : ~ Draft terms of reference are 'oef ore the National
Estimates Board.
.1~.. NIE-24; Gerrnari Attitude toward Remilitarization
Priority; Routine
Estimated Date of Publication: N1id-Apri_1
Status: Terms of reference were sent to the IAC agencies on
tie 27th ar~d considered by the TAC representatives on 1 ~?ebruary.
Contributions from the Department of State and the Department
of the Army were due and received on q February. On 10 February
. the Department of the Air Force notified the Tational Estimates
Board that it would forward a suppJ_ernentary contrib~ztion by the
13th, on which date this contribution was received. Draft
estimate is now in preparation,.
15. NIE~25: Soviet Capabilities and Intentions
Priority: Routine
Estimated Date of Publication: Sometime in May
Status: In connection with preliminary work on a revision of
NIE-3, requirements were circulated to IAC agericies~ Office of
Scientific Intelligence, and Off ice of Research and Reports on
10 February, requesting contributions by 5 fl~larch. Off ice of
Research and Reports requested and was granted an extension
until 1?_ March. The contribution of the Departmlent of the
Army yeas received on 2 March; that of the Navy on 5 March; that
of the Office of Research and Reports on 15 lUIarch. The Depart-
ment of the Air Force initially indicated that its contribution
would be received on 8 P:4arch; subsequently the National Esti-
mates Board has been inf ormed it would be received on 13 March.
A preliminary Staff draft was circulated to the Board on 19
March to facilitate the identification of pertinent issues.
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16. NIE-26; Key Problems in the Near and Middle East
t,ffecting US Security Interests
Priority; Formerly Routine now Urgent
Estimated Date of Publication: Early April
Status: The National Estimates Hoard approved terms of ref er-
ence on 25 January. These were distributed to the TAC agencies
on the 26th for consideration at a meeting held on 2 February.
Contributions were due on 16 February, on which date the Depart-
ment of State and the Department of the Navy requested and were
granted an extension until the 19th. The Defense Department
(G-2) contrib~ztion tivas received on the 17th. Contributions of
the Department of State and the Department of the Navy
(supplementary) were received on the 20th. Draft now in
preparation.
17 NIE-27: Chinese Comrr~unist Capabilities and Intentions
with Respect to Taiwan
Priority: High
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Estimated Date of Publication: 2 April
Status: A revised draft was sent to the IAC agenoies on 19
Marchand a meeting of the~IAC representatives is scheduled
for 10:30 Fridays 23 March,
18, NIE-28: Likely Soviet Tactics in a Prospective CFM
Priority: Deferred
Estimated Date of Publication; Norie
Status; At the meeting of the L4C representatives on 9 P~Rarch,
it ti^ras agreed to postpone further review of this estimate until
the Paris meeting of the Deputy Foreign Ministers had been
concluded.
19. NIE-30: Soviet Capabilities to Interfere with US Delivery
of Atomic ti~'eapons to Targets in the USSR
Priority: High
Estimated Date of Publication: The Joint Congressional
Committee has been informed that an estimate will be prepared
by about 1 April 1951. (See IAC-D-10/3 )
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Status: Pursuant to action of the IAC at its meeting on 8
February, the Department of the Air Force prepared a draft
based on Senator P~RcMahon?s request, for consideration by
the IAC representatives which draft was received by the
National Estimates Board on 1 112arch. This draft w-as forwarded
without comment on 3 March by the National Estimates Board
to the IAC agencies for re~tiew. The IA,C representatives met
on 9 I12arch and on the 13th, on which date the Air Force under-
took afurther revision. On 20 March, Air Force notified the
National Estimates Board that the JIC had requested JCS guidance.
A revised draft is expected within 'the week.
20, NIE-32: The Communist Military Position inr:orea ar_d its Effect
on Sino-Soviet Courses of Action in the Far Eas~
Priority: Formerly Routine now High
Estimated Date of Publication: T~Iid April
Status: Pursuant to I11C action at its meeting on 1> February,
terms of reference vrere drafted. These were appx?oved by the
National Estimates Board on 19 February, 1'he IAC represen-
tatives met on 21 February. Contributions of the Departments
f
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the Army, Nav~r, and Air Force were due on 2, February; that
of the Department of State on 1 March. The contributions of
the P1avy and Air Force were received on 1 P.~arch; the Army-s on
the 2nd, and Status on the 7th. Draft now in preparation.
B. Other Items of Concern to the Committee
21. Biographic Intelligence
Problem: To recommend the most effective biographic facility
for t'
F
d
t1P.
e
eral Intelligence Sy'atem.
Status: Survey of agency holdings is in progress.
report of survev .from A; r Fnrrn
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Awaiting
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