CIA PROJECTS SELECTED FOR FY 1983-84 PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00816R001100160007-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2008
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: August 11, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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CO WI PT g--
11 August 1981
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
Intelligence Community Staff
Policy Guidance a
SUBJECT CIA Projects Selected for FY 1983-84 Production
Enhancement Program (S)
1. Attached are a summary statement for each of the Agency's
Production Enhancements, the revised proposals for each enhancement,
and my comments on your draft memo to the Interagency Working Group
on Production (IWGP). (S)
2. Since I had several suggestions in the draft memo, I have
attached both a marked-up copy and a clean-typed version. Many of
my comments are editorial in nature and are put forth as suggestions.
In paragraph 3 my comments were directed primarily at trying to focus
the attentions of the IWGP. In paragraph 4 I have tried to reflect,
in stronger language, the consensus of the Committee that a broad
interpretation of the purpose of this program is the appropriate one.
After much thought, I would propose dropping Paragraph 5, as I believe
that the ICS could accomplish what is suggested there without IWGP
approval. Further, it would seem to me to be more important to get
the working group's views of the Program itself than the mechanics
of its operation. These concerns notwithstanding, if you feel
strongly that this issue should be raised with the IWGP, I would not
object. (S)
Intelligence Group
Office of the Comptroller
Attachments:
A. List of Production Enhancement Initiatives
B. Production Enhancement Initiatives
C. Draft Memorandum to the IWGP
copy
SECRET When Separated
From Attachment
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0/COiM'IPTROLLER/IG (11 Aug 81)
Distribution:
Copy 1 - Addressee
2 - Comptroller
3 - A/Comptroller
4 - C/PIU/PMES/NFAC
5 - C/S&TG/0/Comptroller
vfr - Compt Subject File
7 - Compt Reading File
8 - IG Chrono File
9 - IG Subject File (Production Enhancements)
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CIA PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT INITIATIVES
. Funds
(in thousands)
FY 83 FY 84
1. Exploiting Political and Social Data
Creates a-unique data archive of a rapidly
expanding _group of files (already numbering
over 200) containing political and social
information, and an interactive software'
system to permit ready access to and
sophisticated analytical manipulation of
the data.
2. Large Scale Econometric Modeling System
Develops models from econometric and
mathematical statements and sets of
algorithms to obtain efficient solutions
to problems with equations and variables
too large to be processed in a timely
fashion with existing capabilities.
4. NonFuel Mineral -Supply-Demand Data Base
Develops and rationalizes disparate data
sets to establish, for the first time, a
consistent, wide-ranging body of informa-
tion on the availability of minerals critical
to the security of the US and its allies.
This data will be available to analysts
through the Agency's interactive ADP system,
and software will be developed to permit
analytical manipulation.
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Funds
(in thousands)
FY 83 FY 84
5. Advanced Cartographic Support System
Develops a cartographic data base
management system to expand the support
provided to cartographers and analysts,
thereby saving workyears while adding
functions such as portraying overlapping
geographic areas or presenting items
identified by other than location, such
as all railroads through Leningrad,
all cities over 100,000 in Poland, etc.
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1. PROJECT TITLE: EXPLOITING POLITICAL AND SOCIAL DATA
Submitting Agency: CIA
II. COSTS (in thousands):
III. DESCRiPTION OF PROJECT
A. Statement of need:
Intelligence analysis is often constrained by limitations in readily
available data. To the degree that information is difficult to identify
and manipulate, it will not be incorporated in intelligence production.
In practice, this has meant that a vast array of political and social
information--on public opinion, social trends, and domestic
confict--has remained largely untapped by NFAC analysts. When
analysts assess political and social conditions, such as the potential
for political instability, the effectiveness of foreign government
policies, or support for its foreign policy, they, therefore, often rely
on incomplete information.
This situation calls for the creation of a unique intelligence
resource: a data archive of important political and social information
and the means for analysts to easily use this information in their
everyday work.
analysts, an extensive interactive computer software system would
need to be developed. The result would be an archive more
extensive and timely than any that currently exists in either the
public or private sector; one with sophisticated retrieval and analysis
capabilities that would significantly enhance the depth and quality of
NFAC analysis.
The Intelligence Community is embarking upon an extensive effort
to upgrade its capabilities to monitor socioeconomic trends in foreign
countries through increased use of external data bases, such as those
of the Bureau of the Census, and by more intensive analysis of these
data. This is a vital effort. To make the linkage between
socioeconomic trends and political events, we need an in-house
capability to store, retrieve, and analyse these bodies of data
together. For example, the historical relationship between inflation
rates and a leader's popularity or the incidence of domestic protest
could be quickly measured statistically and graphically. More complex
models would lead to forecasts of stability within a country.
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OPA is collecting and computerizing political and social data that
will facilitate interpretation of economic, demographic, and electoral
trends by NFAC analysts. At present, the OPA Political and Social
Data Archive contains approximately 200 data files and we have
The rapidly-increasing availability of information in computerized
formats, the development of analytic aids through ORD's Intelligence
Production Laboratory project, and the increaased availability to
NFAC analysts of remote terminals and sophisticated graphic systems
make a thorough and systematic exploitation of political and social
data possible.
C. What is required:
External research funds will be used to hire outside contractors to
complete three basic tasks:
1) Development of a computer software system that will allow
analysts -to query data on their country or issue and conduct simple
statistical analyses. This would involve interfacing with computer
packages -- including graphics support -- already available on the
Agency's computer system or currently under development. The
system would permit the analyst to specify a country, region, or
issue and receive at the terminal an inventory of available archive
date by time period. The analyst would make choices, receive
results, process data statistically or graphically; save files, and
otherwise manipulate the data interactively. By making the full range
of information readily available and easily usable its full benefit will
be realized. It is estimated that development of this software will
costF___1over the first two years.
3) Transcription of
published documents to
socioeconomic data and election returns from
computerized formats and coding of politically
relevant events, such as
government reprisal within
activities is
acts of terrorism, insurgency and
countries. Estimated cost of these
D. Implementation and timing:
These tasks will not be implemented by the same contractor. OPA
will have overall responsibility, with the computer software
development done in consultation with ODP. It is assumed that major
portions of that work will have to be contracted out. External
contractors are the most appropriate means for the massive data
collection and preparation effort. Once the historical baseline has
been developed, the archive will be updated and maintained in-house,
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supplemented by a minor investment of office external analysis funds
when required.
With the funding of this project, OPA will conduct an ADP
requirements study during FY82 and locate, through competitive
bidding, contractors able to perform the related tasks, so that there
would be no delay in getting started in FY83.
IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY APPLICABILITY:
The archive will constitute a unique resource within the
Intelligence Community that will be used by NFAC analysts but could
also support requests from DIA and State. The computer-based
system will be developed with the flexibility to permit additional data
bases to be added to the system in the future.
V. INTELLIGENCE CONSUMER BENEFITS:
The development of the archive is fundamental to the efforts to
improve the quality of analysis in NFAC. It clearly will upgrade the
accuracy and timeliness of political reporting on an ever increasing
number of countries.
VI. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS:
There are no known technical or administrative obstacles to the
development of this system. It will be, however, large and complex
and we anticipate that a significant amount of time would be needed to
familiarize analysts with its capabilities and use.
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I. PROJECT TITLE: Large Scale Econometric Modeling System
Submitting Agency: CIA
II. COSTS (in thousands):
III. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT:
A. Statement of Need:
The volume of data and large number of variables generated and
processed for analysis of international economic situations is too
great to be handled by existing Agency software. The current Com-
munity systems have severe limitations. For example, the Agency
system is 1960 vintage and has many design defects which restrict
the incorporation of advanced mathematical and economic techniques.
The system architecture also seriously restricts the size of problems
which can be generated and requires the user to resort to undesirably
high levels of data aggregation. The Agency's current system (TROLL)
has the capacity to run models with 2,000 equations and 4,000 varia-
bles. The high priority OER requirement which this project addresses
is a system with the capacity to run models with 10,000 equations
and 15,000 variables in the same CPU time and real elapsed time.
OER's requirements can be met by a custom-developed system. (S)
B. What will be Developed
The system will consist of two parts. One part will be designed
for creating a framework of economic model types. Its purpose will
be to generate appropriate models from econometric or mathematical
statements and also perform data management tasks. The second part
of the system will consist of a set of algorithms designed to solve
large scale econometric models, efficiently making use of the Agency's
computer processing capability. (S)
The system will be designed in modules so that new algorithmic
techniques can be readily incorporated and accessed to solve new
problems. As new generations of simulation and optimization software
are developed, they will be added to the system to increase its effi-
ciency and to provide faster turnaround times. The accompanying
documentation will provide detailed definitions and sample problems,
and general information about other applications of the techniques.
(S)
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C. Who will Accomplish
This project will be a joint effort by ORD, OER, and ODP. ORD
will provide specialized personnel to manage the project. OER will
document its experience with the current system and provide personnel
to test the system as it is constructed.
D. Time Phasing
This project will last three years and cost) (The
FY 1935 costs will be borne by ORD and OER.) The tasks required and
their order are:
o feasibility and system design study (FY 1983)
o prototype software and documentation development
(FY 1983-1984)
o test, evaluation, and refinement (FY 1984-1985)
o final system development (FY 1985)
IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY APPLICABILITY
The Agency is currently developing many econometric models to
answer requests from the White House, NSC, DOD, State, Treasury, and
Commerce. The knowledge attained in the development of such a sophis-
ticated system as that needed to model and solve econometric models of
this size will be shared with the community, but it is believed that
the primary applicability is to Agency requirements. (S)
V. INTELLIGENCE CONSUMER BENEFITS
This project will provide the intelligence community with a
unique modeling system that has been designed to meet the Agency's
requirements and specifications. Many of the software systems which the
Agency has acquired to date have been developed for industry or academia.
The development of a new system will reflect experience in the design,
thereby improving the precision and responsiveness of analysis based
upon econometric modeling. (S)
VI. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
There is a high probability of success for this project. The
recent advances in software and hardware have enabled business and
research personnel to solve problems that are two or three orders of
magnitude larger than those previously solved. The technology and
experience to undertake such a project currently exists, but it will
require extensive participation on the part of the consumer, OER, and
dedicated manpower by the managing office, ORD. (S)
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INISTRATIVE-INTERNAL USE ( "iY
A'
I. PROJECT TITLE: Nonfuel Mineral Supply-Demand Data Base
Submitting Agency:
II. COSTS IN THOUSANDS:
III. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT:
A. Statement of need:
There is a persistent and justifiable Federal policy concern
with the vulnerability of the United States and its allies to
interruptions in the imports of nonfuel minerals that are critical
to the maintenance of defense or essential civilian production or to
the general strength of the Western economies. For example, the
United States, Western Europe, and Japan all import more than 90
percent of their requirements of such important minerals as
manganese, cobalt, chromium, and bauxite. Interruptions in this
supply would severely affect steel production, stainless steel
output, and the manufacture of jet engines, among other
industries. The risks of supply disruption for these and other
critical minerals are magnified by their restricted availability and
the fact that they are disproportionately distributed among areas
that are especially subject to instability or politically motivated
supply interruption.
In response to this problem, the Agency has intermittently
carried out ad hoc analyses of particular mineral supply or
contingency situations. Such efforts, however, are hampered by the
lack of a comprehensive, systematically compiled and coordinated
governmental and private information base bearing on future nonfuel
mineral consumption and supply. This proposal would greatly enhance
the potential for quicker, more penetrating, and'more reliable
evaluative efforts.
B. Who will accomplish:
The proposed data base will be maintained by the Resource
Analysis Branch of OGSR after having been established as the result
of both staff and contract efforts. It would combine and coordinate
those relevant governmental and commercial data bases already in
existence or under development as well as raw data and intelligence
that is reported currently in a variety of open and classified
sources.
C. What is to be developed:
The proposed data base will consist of a variety of separate
data sets, both quantitative and narrative, on consumption,
capacity, production, inventories, prices, and recycling, as well as
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on the relevant economic, political, geographic, institutional, and
other determinants of those variables. Predictions made by other
authorities will also be included-especially predictions or
contingency scenarios that relate to the risk of future supply
problems. These data sets will be accessible to analysts through
the Agency's interactive system. Software will be developed to
provide both machine readable output and printouts suitable for
distribution or for inclusion in finished reports. Adjunctive use
will also be made of the MAGAS system to provide a variety of
graphic displays and cartographic arrays. Under appropriate
safeguards, the data-sets will be made accessible in part to other
government agencies.
The data sets would be established and maintained for each of
the important commodity forms of those nonfuel minerals
(tentatively, some 15-20) selected for their importance in the
general economy and/or their critical defense applications.
Particular priority ~ uld be given to those minerals characterized
by the greatest apparent risk of potential supply problems.
Further, they will consist not only of crude statistical and
narrative inputs, but will permit those analytical summations and
manipulations of the data determined to be useful on a routine
basis.
D. Time phasing:
The bulk of the work of establishing the data base can be
accomplished, under one or more outside contracts, during the first
year of the program, with practical application and "debugging"
commencing late that same year. Initial assessments of voids in the
data base can then be made. Efforts to eliminate the gaps and bring
the system online will continue well into the second year. Costs in
succeeding years will be those for maintenance of the system.
In the detailed scheduling, priority will be given to those
minerals and those elements of the system that are most relevant to
providing assessments of situations with greatest risk and most
serious consequences of a supply contingency.
IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY APPLICABILITY:
The project could lead to the development of new techniques for
screening and integrating partially or largely inconsistent reports on
the same subject. The most likely contribution will most likely be,
however, the establishment of a rigorously derived data base on nonfuel
minerals.
V. INTELLIGENCE CONSUMER BENEFITS:
The principal benefit to intelligence consumers will be the
enhanced-capability both for foreseeing the emergence of potential
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mineral supply problems and for evaluating the implications of'
contingency, policy, and other scenarios affecting mineral supply.
These benefits would accrue both from direct evaluation of the entries
in the data base and -- especially for longer term problems -- use of
the data base in the System Dynamics models that have been developed by
CIA.
VI. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS:
There has by now been a sufficiently large body of successful
experience with large data banks -- both numerical and narrative and
particularly within the CIA - that the probability of success for the
one here proposed is very high. Furthermore, the proposed effort would
be a success in terms of its impact on analyst productivity, and the
upgraded analysis made possible even if some elements of the project
failed to be achieved.
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I. PROJECT TITLE:
Advanced Cartographic Support System
Submitting Agency: CIA
H. COSTS (in thousands):
III. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT:
A. Statement of Need
Many intelligence-production activities use geographic information
as an intelligence; source. They are supported in part by cartographic
data bases maintained.by OGSR designed to store cartographic features
in point or linear form for traditional use in the preparation of maps
and charts. (S)
A number of functions of interest to analysts cannot be manipulated
easily so support is less than adequate. Examples are overlapping
areas such as cities and industrial regions and other geographical fea-
tures such as rail and water systems, which are part of a larger target
complex. (S)
The geographic information systems must be enhanced and expanded
to support the needs of Agency. personnel. In order to do so, several
functions are needed to support and supplement ongoing CIA programs
(e.g., NFAC's Analyst Productivity Theme, OGSR's Graphics Automation. Upgrade, NPIC's NDS).. (S)
One-need is a cartographic data base management system that will
.support basic analytical problems requiring a computer system contain-
ing geographic information.identified other than by location, e.g.,
"is this point in France," "is this river a tributary of the Seine."
Research. must be done to identify the type of information needed by
analysts.,, how the information should be stored, and how existing data
bases can be efficiently transformed and enhanced. (S)
A second need is a system which must be able to maintain
geographical relationships such that they can be accessed. across a
variety of applications. The system should be designed to be com-
patible-with the needs and products of other systems (e.g., NPIC's
NDS, CAMS) (S)
o communication of geographic information among different
sys.tems'and devices (e.g., graphics shops, television
centers)
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o specialized mapping techniques for showing
information, i.e., showing the size of a
country according to its population
rather than its area
o raster and vector data merger. (S)
B. Who will Accomplish
The proposed work will be done by ORD with external contractor
assistance. ORD will work closely with OGSR graphic and cartographic
staff members and other Agency groups on applying the research re-
sults to real-world analytical problems and systems. (S)
C. What is to be Developed
We will develop the following products:
o define and establish the set of analytical
requirements for support
o a system which will integrate the appropriate
external software of existing Agency systems
(e.g., WORLD DATA BANK, CAM, MAGAS, TACK)
o define and undertake research and development
efforts for which no existing methodologies
are sufficient
o automated digitization and map building
o specialized mapping techniques
o query systems for analysts using multiple-
source data with geographic data bases
o formatting techniques, especially for
communicating information among different
offices and media. (S)
D. Time Phasing
This project builds upon and supports on-going ORD and Agency
projects. Most of the groundwork and preliminary analysis will be
completed in FY 1982. The first year of the DCI Enhancement will
provide for system integration and the first research projects. The
second year's funding will be devoted to research and development. (S)
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The project will produce an enhanced World Data Bank, which is a
major resource for the Community at large. Insofar as it supports
COMIREX and NPIC, it should enhance the Community's capability as well.
ORD and OGSR are already working together with NSA and other parts of
the Community on graphics and cartography, and we assume that all re-
search performed under this effort will be shared in a like manner. (S)
.The project will result in increased capability for analysts,
cartographers, and graphic designers. This, in turn, should provide
improved analysis and presentation of the analytical product. (S)
The probability is high for producing a system which will
significantly improve geographic/cartography data handling and analysis.
It is likely that it will improve the Agency's ability to handle more
data with no increase in staffing. (S)
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U av ei~ ~s a ?1V. 8 ( \
DRAFT
airman, n eragency Working Group on Production
VIA:
FROM :
SUBJECT:
Director, Policy Guidance Staff
FY 1983-1984 Production Enhancement Initiatives
1. An informal committee was convened in early July 1981 to review
the FY 1983-1984 Production Enhancement Initiatives submitted by the various
program offices and to recommend to the Interagency Working Group on Production
those initiatives which most deserve funding. The committee has selected the
attached list of 16 initiatives submitted by the FBI, State/INR, CIA,
GDIP and NSA totaling This list is the result of a process of 25X1
give and take among the Program Managers, and represents their interpretation
of the objectives of the Production Enhancement Program. The IC Staff
chaired the meeting and while it participated to some degree in the selection
process, it acted largely as a-facilitator. (The attached list of initiatives
is presented by funding level, the committee made'no attempt to prioritize
the list.)
2. This year represents the third anniversary of the program suggesting
that a review and evaluation perhaps is in order. It was intended to provide
seed money to analytical offices for innovative projects that, because of
their speculative nature, could not compete for funding in the normal budget
.process. A relatively modest amount, annually, was established
as a ceiling; each project was to be funded for no more than two years at
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which time it would either be dropped or picked up by the respective
program office. In 1979, proposals were received from four program offices
and eleven initiatives were approved in the amount'of to be
expended in FY 81. In 1980, by contrast, proposals. were received only
from CIAP and GDIP and eleven initiatives were approved in the amount of
-to be.expended in FY 82. The participation by six program
offices this year is an encouraging sign that the program is gaining
acceptance throughout the intelligence Community.
3. Although a good. measure of progress has been made in establishing
the Production Enhancement Initiative Program as a serious effort at en-
couraging innovative ideas, the committee believes that a review of the
program by the Working Group would be helpful. There are a number of
factors to be evaluated, such as the criteria for selection of initiatives.
As more data become available on the initiatives funded in FY 81, future
assessments could be made on the value of the program. In any event,
the program would benefit from the kind of legitimacy that only a strong
endorsement can provide.
4. The nature of the program also has dictated that its scope and
objectives be rather broadly interpreted. As a consequence, the committee's
selections this year have been diverse in terms of content as well as in
their impact on-the intelligence production process. The committee further
recommends that-the Working Group give serious consideration to this
broad interpretation of the program's scope and objectives.
5. The selection committee stands ready to provide any additional
assistance the Working Group might require.
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