FY 1983-1984 PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT INITIATIVES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00816R001100160005-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 38
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: August 25, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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(Security Classification)
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Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
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Warning Notice
Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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25 August 1981
VIA:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Chairman, Interagency Working Group on Production
Director, Office of Planning
FY 1983-1984 Production Enhancement Initiatives
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1. An informal selection committee was convened in early July 1981 to
review the FY 1983-1984 Production Enhancement Initiatives submitted by the
various program offices, and to recommend to the Interagency Working Group
on Production those initiatives which most deserve funding. The committee
has selected the attached list of 14 initiatives submitted by the FBI, State/INR,
CIA, GDIP and NSA totaling[-- This list is the result.of a process 25X1
of give and take among the committee members, and represents their interpretation
of the objectives of the Production Enhancement Program.
office. In 1979, proposals were received from four program offices of which
eleven initiatives were approved for FY 1981-1982 in the amount of 0 25X1
2. This year represents the third year of the program suggesting that
a review and evaluation perhaps is in order. It was intended to provide
seed money, to analytical offices for innovative projects that, because of
their speculative nature, could not nmnptp nding,in the normal budget
process. A relatively modest amount annually was established 25X1
as a ceiling; each project was to be funded for no more than two years at
which time it would either be dropped or picked up by the respective program
In 1980, by contrast, proposals were received only from CIAP and GDIP 25X1;
of which Pleven initiatives were approved for FY 1981-1982 in the amount of
The participation by six program offices this year is an encouraging 25X1;
sign that the program is gaining acceptance throughout the Intelligence Community.
3. Although a good measure of progress has been made in establishing the
Production Enhancement Initiative Program as a serious effort at encouraging
innovative ideas, the committee believes that a review of the program by the
Working Group is in order.. There are a number of factors to be evaluated,
such as the criteria for the selection of initiatives and the perception of
the program at the working level. As more data becomes available on the
initiatives funded in FY 1981, a more objective assessment of the program
can be made.
WARNING NOTICE
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
AND METHODS INVOLVED
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4. The nature of the program also has dictated that its scope and objectives
be rather broadly interpreted. As a consequence, the committee selections this
year have been diverse in terms of content as well as in their impact on the
intelligence production process. The committee further recommends that the
Working Group give serious consideration to this broad interpretation of the
program's scope and objectives.
5. The selection committee stands ready to provide any additional assistance
the Working Group might require.
1 - 1983 - 1984 Production Enhancement Initiatives - Summary
2 - FBI Submissions (2)
3 - State/INR Submissions 1
4 - NSA Submissions (3)
5 - GDIP Submissions (3)
6 - CIA Submissions (5)
7 - Summary of Previous Years Submissions
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FY 1983-1984 Production Enhancement Initiatives - Summary
Project
e/INR: The Cultural Element in Political Analysis
Seeks to improve the quality of political
analysis of foreign countries by assisting
analysts in deepening their understanding
of the impacts of culture on politics.
Funds
(in thousands)
WARNING NOTICE
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
AND METHODS INVOLVED
Copy (o
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Projects FY 83 FY R4
TOTAL
GDIP: Crisis Data Base Exchange 'Methodolog
To develop a test and demonstration proto-
type crisis data base architecture that
will support a transaction-by-transaction
data base exchange methodology based on
automated message handling technolgoy.
Submillimeter Laser Modeling Facility for
Radar Cross Section Measurement
To build a submillimeter laser modelng
facility that can provide actual radar
cross-section measurements for millimeter
wavelengths by using scale models of vehicles.
Improved Mensuration of Automated Hand-Held
Photography
To improve mensuration accuracy and configura-
tion data for weapon system analysis by
integrating the best features of of graphical
and analytical methodologies currently used
for exploiting hand-held photography.
CIAP: Exploiting Political and Social Data
Creates a unique data archive of a rapidly
expanding group of files (already numbering
over 200) containing political and social
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Projects FY 83 FY 84
information, and an interactive software
system to permit ready access to and
sophisticated analytical manpulation of
the data.
Large Scale Econometric Modeling System
Develops models from econometric and
mathematical statements and sets of
algorithms to obtain efficient solutions
to problems with equations and variables
too large to be processed in a timely
fashion with existing capabilities.
NonFuel Mineral Supply-Demand Data Base
Develops and rationalizes disparate data
sets to establish, for the first time, a
consistent, wide-ranging body of informa-
tion on the availability of minerals critical
to the security of the US and its allies.
Advanced Cartographic Support System
Develops a cartographic data base
management system to expand the support
provided to cartographers and analysts,
such as portraying overlapping
geographic areas or presenting items
identified by other than location.
GRAND TOTAL
TOP SECRET
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During FY 82, detailed system requirements will be
developed in coordination with other interested government
agencies, potential contractors and FBI field divisions. A
request for proposals will be generated for solicitation in
FY 83. Prototype hardware will be tested in late FY 83 or early
FY 84. Modifications and enhancements on pre-production
equipment will be obtained in FY 84. (C)
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I. Project Title: The Cultural Element in Political Analysis
II. Cost: FY-83 FY-84
$400K $400K
III. Description of Project:
A. Statement of Need
In the intelligence community analysis of the political
life of foreign countries is an art which seeks to explain
and anticipate events and developments of importance to US
policy makers. There is a growing belief among professionals
that, while perfection of a fully reliable art is unlikely,
improvements in the state of the art are possible and important
to achieve.
The primary purpose of this project is to enhance the
quality of political analysis by probing the impact that
culture has on politics and providing materials that will
enable intelligence analysts more readily and reliably to
prepares culturally sensitive political analysis. To that end,
the project envisions four types of products:
1. A sophisticated checklist-of politically salient
aspects of culture, with commentary.
2.. A series of concise and rigorous statements each
dealing with culture and politics in one of about
ten selected countries. Each . 'statement. should be
designed as an aid to USG analysts and other employees
assigned to reporting, representational, negotiating,
policy development or other political functions with
respect to the country.
3. A report, with recommendations.,. on techniques for
conveying to experienced USG foreign affairs pro-
fess.ionals-the type'of advanced cultural understanding
embodied in the checklist and country statements. The
techniques. should be those judged most effective for
use in short courses at the Foreign Service Institute.
4. A series of direct encounters between USG analysts and
other professionals, on the one hand, and outside
scholars and experts on the other. The meetings should
be geared to the preparation and review, of the
materials specified above.
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The secondary purpose of this project is to stimulate
in the academic sector additional multi-disciplinary, and
preferably self-sustaining, effort to advance knowledge of
culture and politics in its theoretical, methodological, and
practical dimensions. If it is determined that this can be
accomplished through the development of _a national center of
excellence for advanced research, writing and teaching in this
field, the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and
Research. will be prepared to entertain follow-up proposals
for an appropriate USG role in that development.
B. Who Wi'llAccomplish:'
A carefully selected contractor who will work closely with
a working group of State Department Officials organized by INR.
C. What :Is,'to Be Produced:
D. Payoff:
The materials -on culture and politics are envisioned (a) as
aids through. which experienced professionals called upon to
apply their analytical skills to a particular country can more
reliably and rapidly develop the advanced cultural understanding
required, and (b) as valued reference aids for experienced
country experts.
E. Time*Phasing:
The project will be evaluated at the end of its first year
and will be completed at the' end of the second.
IV. Intelligence' Community Applicability and Benefits:
Project results and products will be available to all
Intelligence Community and other USG analysts. The project
will contribute to the analyst's sensitivity and understanding
of the cultural impacts on political behavior and to the pro-
duction of more rounded and accurate political estimates.
V. 'Probability of Success:
The problem of the interaction of culture on politics is
extremely complex and is a crucial dimension of political
behavior. The probability of improving our understanding of
many aspects. of this interaction is good.
INR/LAR:WJTrainor:cc
8/4/81
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I.
Project Title: Crisis Data Base Exchange Methodology
Submitting Agency: DIA
Decision Unit No.:
2735
II.
Costs (Thousands of dollars)
FY 1983
FY 1984
R&D
500
400
0&r1 (Incl. Leases)
200
Total
700
400
III. Description of Project
A. Statement of need.
The intelligence community has for years been struggling with the problems
created by the lack of a common perception of a crisis situation. In large measure,
this situation is attributable to the lack of a commonly accessible or available
finished intelligence information data bases on the crisis area. Principal among
these data bases in DoD are those formatted files relating to orders of battle and
installations. These data bases form the basis for military, military/political and
military/economic assessments of the crisis situation used for a wide variety of policy
decisions, constitute principal inputs to military operations planning and execution,
and are used for current situation presentation/displays of the crisis area to senior
level defense officials.
The discrepancy between data base holdings at DIA and other major DODIIS
sites during the course of a crisis creates a vicious cycle which impacts on the
productivity of the analytical resources working the problem. The purpose of this
project would be to test a concept for managing the required uniform distributed crisis
data base and its supporting technology.
B. Who will accomplish?
The Executive Directorate for DODIIS Engineering (DIA RSE) would conduct
the project with contractor assistance. The project objectives would be to demonstrate
the viability and utility of the proposed conceptual and technological solution. It
will provide a unique ability to assess some of the DODIIS Engineering Initiatives
early in.the development cycle while providing some tangible solutions to existing
Department of Defense Intelligence Information Handling problems.
C. What is to be developed?
A test and demonstration prototype crisis data base architecture that will
support a transaction-by-transaction data base exchange methodology based on automated
message handling (AMH) technology. The prototype will use existing ADP and tele-
communications facilities wherever feasable and lease other specialized equipment as
,necessary. SAFE technology will be used wherever feasible.
.D. How will it be done?
Under this project, the automatic data base change process would be tested
through the full formatted file update cycle using an advanced technological hardware
based AMH component. Three sites would be involved--two as producers and one as consumer.
SECRET
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E. How is it innovative?
The project is innovative in that it takes a concept from one narrow data
base arena and applies it to a much broader problem using an untried though highly
promising technology.
IV. Intelligence Community Applicability
A. Who can use the results of the initiative?
All intelligence community sites who must exchange data base transactions--
either in the form of intelligence data or analyzed intelligence information--can benefit
from the results of this project.
B. What are the effects?
There will be several positive effects: the basic problem of information
commonality and timeliness will be resolved, interoperability and the survivability of
data bases will be greatly enhanced,. and analyst productivity will be increased.
Several other potential effects will also be evaluated: the impact on telecommunications,
techniques and problems involved in handling the "initial load" of a crisis data base,
techniques for dynamically modifying the data base exchange process during the course
of a crisis, and techniques for handling "collisions" or "near-collisions" of data
base change transactions from different sites.
V. Intelligence Consumer Benefits
A. Who benefits?
All consumers and users of defense intelligence information will benefit from
a more timely, integrated, and fully coordinated product that has been jointly evaluated
at both the national and theater levels. Positive procedural or technological capabilities
derived from this evaluation will be implemented. on a community basis under DODIIS
engineering initiatives.
B. What are the effects?
The effects of implementing this crisis data base concept on a comprehensive
basis will be to increase the utility of the intelligence. product to the operational
planner and decision maker and to enhance their confidence in the intelligence community
at large.
VI. Probability of Success
There. are several components to the proposed project each with their own
probability of success. There is the conceptual component with a moderate to high
probability of success. There is a technological component with an even probability
of success. Of utmost importance, there is a procedural component with a less-than-even
chance of success since the concept of operations to establish and maintain data bases
in a crisis environment is not well developed or understood. Efforts to define this
concept have generally failed due to uncertainties over the capabilities and flexibility
of supporting ADP/telecommunications technology. On the other hand, efforts to specify
the ADP/T technology have not.progressed since they lacked a clear statement of require-
ments and a supporting concept of operations. This project will allow the two sets of
requirements to be tested and developed in a joint effort in a test environment.
2
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I. Project Title
Submillimeter Laser Modeling Facility for Radar Cross-Section
Measurements
Submitting Agency: US Army Foreign Science and Technology Center
Decision Unit No.: 2507
II. Costs: FY 83-$525K FY 84-$75K
III. Description of Project
A. (C-NOFORN) Within the last decade, US antiarmor munition
designers have mounted a concerted effort to develop millimeter wave
(MMW) (i.e., 35-, 60-, 94-, 120-, 240-GHz) transmitters/receivers that
can be incorporated into a variety of weapons systems as active guidance
mechanisms. Of paramount importance for these weapon systems, sometimes
referred to as fire-and-forget, top attack systems, is the need for
accurate radar cross-section (RCS) data on Eurasian Communist country
(ECC) ground forces vehicles. The United States has spent many billions
of dollars to develop these so-called smart weapons in an effort to
counter the Soviet's numerical superiority in the ground forces. FSTC
has been specifically tasked to provide, RCS measurements for all ECC
ground forces vehicles. A contract has been given to MIT Lincoln
Laboratory to develop a facility that can provide actual RCS
measurements for millimeter wavelengths by using scale models (1/16
and/or 1/34) of vehicles and scaling up the frequency of the incident
radiation. The basic electromagnetic (EM) theory supporting this method
has been documented and validated by FSTC scientists and engineers in
charge of the contract. In addition, RCS measurements have been made on
full size vehicles, and they compare very favorably with the scale model
measurements. FSTC will develop and build their own submillimeter laser
modeling facility based on the principles and equipment developed by MIT
LL. Purchase of major equipment for the FSTC facility will begin in FY
83 and RCS measurement data should be output by 2nd.Quarter FY 83. This
program is unique in that it provides an efficient, cost effective
method of determining RCS measurements without having to resort to
building full scale replicas of each ECC armored vehicle. The FSTC
Field Support Division, which is already building scale modles of ECC
ground forces vehicles utilizing all intelligence data gleaned by FSTC
analysts, can provide in a timely manner the scale models needed for the
operation of the laser modeling facility. Consequently, the
submillimeter laser modeling facility can provide detailed information
on MMW scattering by the scale model targets. The goals of this program
are to gain insight into the nature of millimeter target signatures and
to determine RCS's aimpoints and radar centroids of targets and their
dependence upon aspect and depression angles.
B. (C-NOFORN) The facility consists of a far infrared (FIR) laser
that is pumped by a continuous wave CO laser. Various gases can be
introduced into the FIR laser cavity to provide for different
submillimeter wavelength outputs from the FIR. These submillimeter
wavelengths simulate the actual mm wavelengths for a particular scaling
factor. For example, if a 1/16 scale model of a T-64 tank is used, a
frequency of 560 GHz (i.e., 16x35 GHz) or 0.53 mm must be used to
simulate 35 GHz illuminating a full scale T-64. Various gases are
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available such that all frequencies, expected to be used by munition
guidance designers, can be simulated at submillimeter wavelengths. The
beam emerging from the FIR laser is focused via a set of optics onto a
,scanning mirror that scans the scale model target. Various aspect and
depression angles can be achieved by rotating the target. Reflected
signal data is determined via a germanium bolometer cooled to 2K; the
magnitude of the signal is then transferred to a computer system that
can output the data in several fashions including a graphic display
identifying each major MMW scattering surface, assigning a,RCS in square
meters, and denoting the centroid of the overall RCS for that particular
aspect and depression angle.
IV. Intelligence Community Applicability:
(C) FSTC will be the primary user of the results from this
facility. However, it will be responsive to triservice requirements as
well as CIA and DIA requirements.
V. Intelligence Consumer Benefits:
(C-NOFORN) US munition guidance developers are the primary users
of this data. RCS data at various .aspect and depression angles'are of
paramount importance to fire-and-forget, top attack guidance systems
operating at 35-, 60-, 94-, 120-, and 240-GHz. With the above
referenced facility, FSTC will be able to provide timely RCS measurement
data at a low cost to the munition designer.
VI. Probability of Success:
(U) This program is'invaluable to the production of.realistic
intelligence data related to RCS. It has a high probably of success.
CONE IDENTIIi:
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1. Project Title: Improved Mensuration of Automated Hand-Held Photography
Submitting Agency: HQ FTD/SQHA Decision Unit No: 2210
II. Costs: FY 1983 FY 1984
$200 K $200 K
III. Description of Project:
a. "Hand-held" photography refers to those photographs taken by tourists,
attaches, and professional photographers using any of an assortment of small,
commercially available portable cameras - usually either a pocket instarnatic
type or, more commonly, one of a number of popular 35mm Single Lens Reflex (SLR)
cameras. The photographs are generally taken of objects having potential
intelligence value (i.e., displayed at public air shows, technical exhibits,
and parades). The intelligence information (particularly mensuration and
configuration data) is extremely difficult to extract due to numerous factors
affecting the object photographed. In short, the object is not usually as it
appears but rather some distorted facsimile thereof.
b. Mensuration accuracy and, configuration data of objects for weapon
system analysis can be significantly improved by integrating the best features
of two methodologies currently used for exploiting hand-held photography -
graphical and analytical.
- Graphical technique: Produces a man-made drawing of the object
photographed. The graphical method is very accurate and not as dependent upon
imagery information (focal length, film format, enlargement factor, etc.), but
it is a very slow, personnel-intensive process.
Analytical technique: Produces parameter description of an object
through the use of computer programs. This technique required less time than
the graphical technique but is limited by the amount of information obtainable
about the photography.
c. The integration of these methodologies through an external assistance
contract should improve the timeliness and accuracy of object mensurations
derived from hand-held photography. The effective application of such an
integrated methodology requires the use of a graphics terminal linked with a
digitizer board. Some modification (approximately $50K) to a currently exist-
ing terminal and digitizer board may be necessary, but such modification costs
would be a small percentage of this proposal's total costs.
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d. A system engineering approach to the problem will be done.
Phase I - Establish functional design requirements and technical requirements.
Phase II - Establish hardware and software specifications.
Phase III - Procure test hardware and code software.
This hardware will be commerically "off the shelf" and generic in class. The
software will use modern coding techniques and be written in a modular fashion
using a higher level language. In all cases, the system will be as hardware
independent as possible. The intent is that the system be just another node on
a general purpose computer and, thus, easily transportable. It could be adapted
by any organization which has general computation support with minimal cost.
e. Both the graphical and analytical solutions have their good and bad
points. This integrated approach, with the ability to identify the most productive
path/technique as the job is progressing, will produce a large time savings. It
will also allow more time to be spent on the correct technique, thus yielding a
better product.
IV. Intelligence Community Applicability:
a. All intelligence organizations employing hand-held techniques to exploit
imagery can use this methodology.
b. The effect, as in our case, is that more imagery can be exploited faster
,with a gain in information. At the minimum, the mensuration accuracy will be
maintained at present levels.
V. Intelligence Consumer Benefits:
a. All intelligence organizations that use hand-held photography to derive
intelligence products should benefit. It is hoped that.a 25 percent reduction in
man hours will be obtained, along with a better product.
b. A reduction in man hours will result in a more cost effective, timely
product that would contain necessary, additional information.
VI. Probability of Success:
At the estimated funding level, the probability of success is estimated to be
realistically greater than 50 percent. Increased funding would have a slight
increase in success probability, while decreased funding would severely decrease
the probability of success.
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SECRETI
1. PROJECT TITLE: EXPLOITING POLITICAL AND SOCIAL DATA
Submitting Agency: CIA
II. COSTS (in thousands):
III. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT
Intelligence analysis is often constrained by limitations in readily
available data. To the degree that information is difficult to identify
and manipulate, it will not be incorporated in intelligence production.
In practice, this has meant that a vast array of political and social
information--on public opinion, social trends, and domestic
confict--has remained largely untapped by NFAC analysts. When
analysts assess political and social conditions, such as the potential
for political instability, the effectiveness of foreign government
policies, or support for its foreign policy, they, therefore, often rely
on incomplete information.'
This situation calls for the creation of a unique intelligence
resource: a data archive of important political and social information
and the means for analysts to easily use this information in their
everyday work.
analysts, an extensive interactive computer software system would
need to be developed. The result would be an archive more
extensive and timely than any that currently exists in either the
public or private sector; one with sophisticated retrieval and analysis
capabilities that would significantly enhance the depth and quality of
NFAC analysis.
The Intelligence Community is embarking upon an extensive effort
to upgrade its capabilities to monitor socioeconomic trends in foreign
countries through increased use of external data bases, such as those
of the Bureau of the Census, and by more intensive analysis of these
data. This is a vital effort. To make the linkage between
socioeconomic trends and political events, we need an in-house
capability to store, retrieve, and analyse these bodies of data
together. For example, the historical relationship between inflation
rates and a leader's popularity or the incidence of domestic protest
could be quickly measured statistically and graphically. More complex
models would lead to forecasts of stability within a country.
o make these data readily accessible by
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OPA is collecting and computerizing political and social data that
will facilitate interpretation of economic, demographic, and electoral
trends by NFAC analysts. At present, the OPA Political and Social
Data Archive contains approximately 200 data files and we have
The rapidly-increasing availability of information in computerized
formats, the development of analytic aids through ORD's Intelligence
Production Laboratory project, and the increaased availability to
NFAC analysts of remote terminals and sophisticated graphic systems
make a thorough and systematic exploitation of political and social
data possible.
C. What is required:
External research funds will be used to hire outside contractors to
complete three basic tasks:
1) Development of a computer software system that will allow
analysts to query data on their country or issue and conduct simple
statistical analyses. This would involve interfacing with computer
packages -- including graphics support -- already available on the
Agency's computer system or currently under development. The
system would permit the analyst to specify a country, region, or
issue and receive at the terminal an inventory of available archive
date by time period. The analyst would make choices, receive
results, process data statistically or graphically, save files, and
otherwise manipulate the data interactively. By making the full range
of information readily available and easily usable its full benefit will
be It is estimated that development of this software will
cost over the first two years.
3) Transcription of socioeconomic data and election returns from
published documents to computerized formats and coding of politically
relevant events, such as acts of terrorism, insurgency and
government reprisal within countries. Estimated cost of these
activities is
D. Implementation and timing:
These tasks will not be implemented by the same contractor. OPA
will have overall responsibility, with the computer software
development done in consultation with ODP. It is assumed that major
portions of that work will have to be contracted out. External
contractors are the most appropriate means for the massive data
collection and preparation effort. Once the historical baseline has
been developed, the archive will be updated and maintained in-house,
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supplemented by a minor investment of office external analysis funds
when required.
With the funding of this project, OPA will conduct an ADP
requirements study during FY82 and locate, through competitive
bidding, contractors able to perform the related tasks, so that there
would be no delay in getting started in FY83.
IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY APPLICABILITY:
The archive will constitute a unique resource within the
Intelligence Community that will be used by NFAC analysts but could
also support requests from DIA and State. The computer-based
system will be developed with the flexibility to permit additional data
bases to be added to the system in the future.
V. INTELLIGENCE CONSUMER BENEFITS:
The development of the archive is fundamental to the efforts to
improve the quality of analysis in NFAC. It clearly will upgrade the
accuracy and timeliness of political reporting on an ever increasing
number of countries.
VI. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS:
There are no known technical or administrative obstacles to the
development of this system. It will be, however, large and complex
and we anticipate that a significant amount of time would be needed to
familiarize analysts with its capabilities and use.
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VLVIVL I
I. PROJECT TITLE: Large Scale Econometric Modeling System
Submitting Agency: CIA
II. COSTS (in thousands):
III. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT:
A. Statement of Need:
The volume of data and large number of variables, generated and
processed for analysis of international economic situations is too
great to be handled by existing Agency software. The current Com-
munity systems have severe limitations. For example, the Agency
system is 1960 vintage and has many design defects which restrict
the incorporation of advanced mathematical and economic techniques.
The.system architecture also seriously restricts the size of problems
which can be generated and requires the user to resort to undesirably
high levels of data aggregation. The Agency's current system (TROLL)
has the capacity to run models with 2,000 equations and 4,000 varia-
bles. The high priority OER requirement which this project addresses
is a system with the capacity to run models with 10,000 equations
and 15,000 variables in the same CPU time and real elapsed time.
OER's requirements can be met by a custom-developed system. (S)
B. What will be Developed
The system will consist of two parts. One part will be designed
for creating a framework of economic model types. Its purpose will
be to.generate appropriate models from econometric or mathematical
statements and also perform data management tasks. The second part
of the system will consist of a set of algorithms designed to solve
large scale econometric models, efficiently making use of the Agency's
computer processing capability. (S)
The system will be designed in modules so that new algorithmic
techniques can be readily incorporated and accessed to solve new
problems. As new generations of simulation and optimization software
are developed, they will be added to the system to increase its effi-
ciency and to provide faster turnaround times. The accompanying
documentation will provide detailed definitions and sample problems,
and general information about other applications of the techniques.
(S)
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C. Who will Accomplish
This project will be a joint effort by ORD, OER, and ODP. ORD
will provide specialized personnel to manage the project. OER will
document its experience with the current system and provide personnel
to test the system as it is constructed.
D. Time Phasing
This project will last three years and cost (The
FY 1985 costs will be borne by ORD and OER.) The tasks required and
their order are:
o feasibility and system design study (FY 1983)
o prototype software and documentation development
(FY 1983-1984)
o test, evaluation, and refinement (FY 1984-1985)
o final system development (FY 1985)
The Agency is currently developing many econometric models to
answer requests from the White House, NSC, DOD, State, Treasury, and
Commerce. The knowledge attained in the development of such a sophis-
ticated system as that needed to model and solve econometric models of
this size will be shared with the community, but it is believed that
the primary applicability is to Agency requirements. (S)
This project will provide the intelligence community with a
unique modeling system that has been designed to meet the Agency's
requirements and specifications. Many of the software systems which the
Agency has acquired to date have been developed for industry or academia.
The development of a new system will reflect experience in the design,
thereby improving the precision and responsiveness of analysis based
upon econometric modeling. (S)
There is a high probability of success for this project. The
recent advances in software and hardware have enabled business and
research personnel to solve problems that are two or three orders of
magnitude larger than those previously solved. The technology'and
experience to undertake such a project currently exists, but it will
require extensive participation on the part of the consumer, OER, and
dedicated manpower by the managing office, ORD. (S)
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I. PRWECr TITLE: Nonfuel Mineral Supply-Demand Data Base
Submitting Agency: CIA
II. COSTS IN THOUSANDS:
III. DESCRIPTION OF PRaJECT:
A. Statement of need:
There is a persistent and justifiable Federal policy concern
with the vulnerability of the United States and its allies to
interruptions in the imports of nonfuel minerals that are critical
to the maintenance of defense or essential civilian production or to
the general strength of the Western economies. For example, the
United States, Western Europe, and Japan all import more than 90
percent of their requirements of such important minerals as
manganese, cobalt, chromium, and bauxite. Interruptions in this
supply would severely affect steel production, stainless steel
output, and the manufacture of jet engines, among other
industries. The risks of supply disruption for.these and other
critical minerals are magnified by their restricted availability and
the fact that they are disproportionately distributed among areas
that are especially subject to instability or politically motivated
supply interruption.
In response to this problem, the Agency has intermittently
carried out ad hoc analyses of particular mineral supply or
contingency situations. Such efforts, however, are hampered by the
lack of a comprehensive, systematically compiled and coordinated
governmental and private information base bearing on future nonfuel
mineral consumption and supply. This proposal would greatly enhance
the potential for quicker, more penetrating, and more reliable
evaluative efforts.
B. Who will accomplish:
The proposed data base will be maintained by the Resource
Analysis Branch of OGSR after having been established as the result
of both staff and contract efforts. It would combine and coordinate
those relevant governmental and commercial data bases already in
existence or under development as well as raw data and intelligence
that is reported currently in a variety of open and classified
sources.
C. What is to be developed:
The proposed data base will consist of a variety of separate
data sets, both quantitative and narrative, on consumption,
capacity, production, inventories, prices, and recycling, as well as
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on the relevant economic, political, geographic, institutional, and
other determinants of those variables. Predictions made by other
authorities will also be included-especially predictions or
contingency scenarios that relate to the risk of future supply
problems. These data sets will be accessible to analysts through
the Agency's interactive system. Software will be developed to
provide both machine readable output and printouts suitable for
distribution or for inclusion in finished reports. Adjunctive use
will also be made of the MAGAS system to provide a variety of
graphic displays and cartographic arrays. Under appropriate
safeguards, the data sets will be made accessible in part to other
government agencies.
The data sets would be established and maintained for each of
the important ccimmodity forms of those nonfuel minerals
(tentatively, some 15-20) selected for their importance in the
general economy and/or their critical defense applications.
Particular priority would be given to those minerals characterized
by the greatest apparent risk of potential supply problems.
Further, they will consist not only of crude statistical and
narrative inputs, but will permit those analytical summations and
manipulations of the data determined to be useful on a routine
basis.
D. Time phasing:
The bulk of the work of establishing the data base can be
accomplished, under one or more outside contracts, during the first
year of the program, with practical application and "debugging"
commencing late that same year. Initial assessments of voids in the
data base can then be made. Efforts to eliminate the gaps and bring
the system online will continue well into the second year. Costs in
succeeding years will be those for maintenance of the system.
In the detailed scheduling, priority will be given to those
minerals and those elements of the system that are most relevant to
providing assessments of situations with greatest risk and most
serious consequences of a supply contingency.
IV. INTELLIGENCE COMNAJNITY APPLICABILITY:
The project could lead to the development of new techniques for
screening and integrating partially or largely inconsistent reports on
the same subject. The most likely contribution will most likely be,
however, the establishment of a rigorously derived data base on nonfuel
minerals.
V. INTELLIGENCE CONSUMER BENEFITS:
The principal benefit to intelligence consumers will be the
enhanced capability both for foreseeing the emergence of potential
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mineral supply problems and for evaluating the implications of
contingency, policy, and other scenarios affecting mineral supply.
These benefits would accrue both fran direct evaluation of the entries
in the data base and -- especially for longer term problems -- use of
the data base in the System Dynamics models that have been developed by
CIA.
VI. P1DBABILITY OF SUCCESS:
There has by now been a sufficiently large body of successful
experience with large data banks - both numerical and narrative and
particularly within the CIA - that the probability of success for the
one here proposed is very high. Furthermore, the proposed effort would
be a success in terms of its impact az analyst productivity, and the
upgraded analysis made possible even if sate elements of the project
failed to be achieved.
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v`V116.I
I. PROJECT TITLE: Advanced Cartographic Support System
Submitting Agency: CIA
II. COSTS (in thousands):
A. Statement of Need
Many intelligence production activities use geographic information
as an intelligence source. They are supported in part by cartographic
data bases maintained by OGSR designed to store cartographic features
in point or linear form for traditional use in the preparation of maps
and charts. (S)
A number of functions of interest to analysts cannot be manipulated
easily so support is less than adequate. Examples are overlapping
areas such as cities and industrial regions and other geographical fea-
tures such as rail and water systems, which are part of a larger target
complex. (S)
The geographic information systems must be enhanced and expanded
to support the needs of Agency personnel. In order to do so, several
functions are needed to support and supplement ongoing CIA programs
(e.g., NFAC's Analyst Productivity Theme, OGSR's Graphics Automation
Upgrade., NPIC's NDS). (S)
One need is a cartographic data base management system that will
support basic analytical problems requiring a computer system contain-
ing geographic information identified other than by location, e.g.,
"is this point in France," "is this river a tributary of the Seine."
Research must be done to identify the type of information needed by
analysts, how the information should be stored, and how existing data
bases can be efficiently transformed and enhanced. (S)
A second need is a system which must be able to maintain
geographical relationships such that they can be accessed across a
variety of applications. The system should be designed to be com-
patible with the needs and products of other systems (e.g., NPIC's
NDS, CAMS). (S)
o communication of geographic information among different
systems and devices (e.g., graphics shops, television
centers)
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o specialized mapping techniques for showing
information, i.e.; showing the size of a
country according to its population
rather than its area
o raster and vector data merger. (S)
B. Who will Accomplish
The proposed work.will be done by ORD with external contractor
assistance. ORD will work closely with OGSR graphic and cartographic
staff members and other Agency groups on applying the research re-
sults to real-world analytical problems and systems. (S)
C. What is to be Developed
We will develop the following products:
o define and establish the set of analytical
requirements for support
o a system which will integrate the appropriate
external software of existing Agency systems
(e.g., WORLD DATA BANK, CAN, MAGAS, TACK)
define and undertake research and development
efforts for which no existing methodologies
are sufficient
o automated digitization and map building
o specialized mapping techniques
o query systems for analysts using multiple-
source data with geographic data bases
formatting techniques, especially for
communicating information among different
offices and media. (S)
D. Time Phasing
This project builds upon and supports on-going ORD and Agency
projects. Most of the groundwork and preliminary analysis will be
completed in FY 1982. The first year of the DCI Enhancement will
provide for system integration and the first research projects. The
second year's funding will be devoted to research and development. (S)
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IV. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY APPLICABILITY
The project will produce an enhanced World Data Bank, which is a
major resource for the Community at large. Insofar as it supports
COMIREX and NPIC, it should enhance the Community's capability as well.
ORD and OGSR are already working together with NSA and other parts of
the Community on graphics and cartography, and we assume that all re-
search performed under this effort will be shared in a like manner. (S)
V. INTELLIGENCE CONSUMER BENEFITS
The project will result in increased capability for analysts,
cartographers, and graphic designers. This, in turn, should provide
improved analysis and presentation of. the analytical product. (S)
VI. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
The probability is high for producing a system which will
significantly improve geographic/cartography data handling and analysis..
It is likely that it will improve the Agency's ability to handle more
data with no increase in staffing. (S)
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