SUGGESTIONS FOR "ALTERNATIVE POSSIBILITY" ANALYSIS TOPICS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080023-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: November 3, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080023-8
UPLL! S1t 1tU PIiHL #/Ubb-81
MEMORANDUM FOR: Henry Rowen, Chairman
National Intelligence Council
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Suggestions for "Alternative Possibility" Analysis Topics
1. As stated at the meeting, I think Charles Waterman's idea
first rate. My own experience in publishing 14 such analyses (1980-81)
also testifies to the fact that these can indeed be written in four
printed pages as Dick Lehman suggested. Four examples are attached in
case you want to use them.
2. Specific possible topic suggestions in my region include the
following pessimistic and optimistic themes:
Ism _l_ications for Mexico of a communist Central America
by 1983 current y scheduled as an NIE for 1982
Extreme left victory in El Salvador in 1982--Implications
for the Region
Rightist disruption of the constitutional transition in
Brazil an its possible implications
Successful democratic liberation of Nicaragua in 1982;
imp ications for the region and the Cu an export of
subversion
Growth within Cuba of a "Solidarity ty e" movement for
peaceful an gradua li era ization: probabilities and
impact
-= Explosion of Cuba Angola or Mozambique: Impact on its
export of subve ion
u,u, a am al.r.aLrllfly an t!ALr'dLL Trum my memo ror mr. Casey
of 15 September 1981 which illustrates a type of impact analysis we might
consider doing collegially on a quarterly basis for a limited number of
UNCLASSIFIED
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 Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080023-8
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possible, negative international events which could be caused by the
success of the political-par amilitarywarfare process. The illustration
only highlighted possible effects on oil prices but I would suggest the
following dimensions of impact:
Destabilization
Case
A. North Yemen
B. Oman
C. Etc.
Possible Impact in Terms of a Range
Total Oil Prices Refugee Costs Defense Costs Other
Constantine Menges
National Intelligence Officer
for Latin America
Attachments
Alternative emphasis forecasts on:
1) Central America/Mexico (4/80)
2) Neutralism in Germany (7/80)
3) Greece, Turkey, Yugoslavia (6/80)
4) Brazil' - Difficult Years (11/80)
Iwrl 11ZCTCTCr
Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85MOO366R000200080023-8