SUPPORT TO POLICYMAKERS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080019-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: November 3, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080019-3
? SECRET 10
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC #7043-81
3 November 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM : Major General Ennis C. Whitehead, Jr., USA Retired
National Intelligence Officer for General Purpose Forces
SUBJECT : Support to Policymakers (U)
Attached are some initial thoughts on questions, not the province
solely of GPF, that might fall into category of support to policymakers
proposed by Charlie Waterman in his memo on reactive analysis. (U)
Attachment:
NIO/GPF Comments on
Support to Policymakers
Regrade to UNCLASSIFIED when
separated from attachment
Ennis V Whitehead, Jr.
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NI0/GPF Comments on Support to Policymakers
1. Reopening of Sino-Soviet Border Talks. The reopening of the
border talks between Moscow and Peking could have long term policy impli-
cations and portend alterations in both the political and military equation
in the Far East. This paper would take a speculative view of potential
changes in the Sino-Soviet relationship.
-- the likelihood of a reopening of the talks;
-- Soviet and Chinese aims;
-- likelihood and implications of various potential
elements of an agreement;
-- potential for further steps toward Sino-Soviet rapprochement.
Greek Withdrawal from NATO. The new political leadership in
Greece criticized Greek participation in NATO during the election campaign.
This paper would address the evolution of the Greek position within NATO
under the new regime focusing on the key question of the likelihood and
nature of a Greek withdrawal from NATO.
-- what would be the political and military implications
of a complete or partial withdrawal;
-- what is the range of options for the Greek government;
-- will Greece emulate the French, continuing a political
role but disassociating Greece from NATO's military
structure;
-- what are the implications for the Greco-Turkish
relationship.
3. Finland Under a New Leadership. The three leading candidates to
replace the recently resigned President of Finland offer a spectrum of
political thought regarding Finland's relationship with Moscow and the
West. This paper would review the positions of the candidates and focus
on long term political and military implications of each candidate's
election.
what are the political implications of a closer
Finnish-Soviet relationship: for Europe, the US,
NATO?
what are the military implications of such closer ties:
chance of increased military cooperation with Moscow,
granting of Soviet base rights in Finland;
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NI0/GPF Comments on Support to Policymakers
-- what are the implications of a possible move
closer to the West; Soviet reactions?
4Poland: Impact on Pact Strategy. The crisis in Poland may
well have led to a Soviet reevaluation of the role and reliability of
Polish military forces. This question has been addressed in both
NIE 11-14-81 and a NIC Memorandum. This paper would take a longer,
more speculative look at the impli'cati'ons for Soviet planning for war
against NATO.
-- implications of reduced Soviet reliance on the
Polish forces;
-- need to increase readiness of Soviet forces;
reduction of Pact ability to. launch attacks with
short preparation time;
-- increased warning time for NATO;
-- with more limited conventional forces, increased
likelihood of resort to nuclear weapons;
-- alternatives to use of Polish forces, and alterna-
tive uses of Polish forces.
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