ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R000500770006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: February 1, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
Intelligence Research and Development Council
IR&DC 83-3317
1 February 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence;
FROM: Richard D. DeLauer
Chairman
SUBJECT: Artificial Intelligence Recommendations
REFERENCES: A. DDCI Memoran
B. IR&DC Report
1. As you recall, upon reviewing the Council report on "Technology
Considerations for Improved Intelligence Capabilities," you asked to be
advised of specific recommendations concerning artificial intelligence (AI)
initiatives which may be useful for the Intelligence Community. Therefore I
am attaching a set which has been generated by the Council and which seem to
me to provide for a good startin position in bringing AI applications into
the Intelligence Community.
2. One recommendation is that you and the DCI call out AI applications
specifically in your forthcoming budget guidance, and in this vein, I have
attached a suggested guidance draft. Another recommendation deals with the
establishment of an AI subcommittee of the IR&DC. This seems to me like a
good idea, and if you agree, I will take the action to set it up. F
6,lL
Richard D. DeLauer
Attachment:
Al Recommendations
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SECKEI
Executive Summary
The following responds to your request for recommendations
concerning the application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology in
the Intelligence Community (IC). Developed more fully below, the
Intelligence Research & Development Council (IR&DC) recommends that:
(1) Guidance be given to all IC Program Managers to include plans for
applying artificial intelligence within their recommended FY-85
programs. A sample of-suggested wording for such guidance is
provided as attachment-A-.
(2) A subcommittee of the IR&DC be established to provide needed
information exchange on AI matters within the Community. The scope
of this subcommittee would include technical information exchange,
interfacing between basic AI research. and IC applications, and
coordinating IC AI activities.
(3) The IC continue to rely on the long-term financing of basic AI
research by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA),
coordinating its requirements through the IR&DC AI subcommittee. E
(4) The IC, itself, continue to concentrate on applying AI and prepare a
list of applications which would solidify the commitment and alert
researchers and vendors to Community needs. An initial set of
candidate applications is included as attachment-B.
(5) Community ADP managers be advised that in all likelihood a more
diverse set of computing hardware and languages will be required to
support AI systems. Plans will need to be developed for maintaining
these tools and integrating them into existing computer environments.
(6) Several nascent AI applications laboratories in the Community be
expanded, and their timetables advanced, so as to form focal points
for AI in the Community. Two such laboratories are those in the
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Engineering Topographic Laboratories`(ETL) and the Office of Research
and Development (ORD). F__] 11
(7) An unclassified AI computer facility be established for the Community
and networked with the existing Al'research centers via the ARPAnet.
This facility would provide a cost-savings link between the
Intelligence Community and the AI research community. F1
(8) End-users of AI systems begin to allocate resources for technology
transfer, recognizing their commitment to provide domain-specific
expertise to be built-into the systems.
(9) The component agencies work together to plan for the internal
development of Government personnel in A.I. F
As we indicated in our report, we are encouraged by recent breakthroughs in
AI and believe that there are many areas in the Community which could
benefit from applied AI technology. The recommendations contained in this
memorandum are aimed at accelerating current Community efforts in AI to
speed up the productive use of this technology throughout the Community.
Key among these recommendations are numbers 8 and 9. The projected
shortage of trained personnel, added to the normal security issues,
necessitates that the IC be able'to supply a large proportion of its own AI
specialists. Therefore, training is paramount (Rec. 9). The importance of
Rec. 8, "End-User Planning", results from the lack of exposure of Community
components to the technology and their understandable general reluctance to
exchange current resources for future benefits. Although certain of these
recommendations may need to wait for FY-85, every effort should be made to
take preparatory steps in FY-83 84 and Program Managers should be asked to
address this specifically.
1. DCI Guidance
Given the strong potential for AI applications in the Community, the
IR&DC recommends that guidance be given to all IC Program Managers to
aggressively pursue the technology and to plan for AI in their FY-85
programs. Each individual Program Manager will, of course, decide where AI
technology can best support his or her program. It is therefore
recommended that each Program Manager prepare a list of candidate projects
for early attention. A sample list is provided in attachment-B. Because
of the burgeoning technology and the Community's relative inexperience in
applying AI to intelligence problems, we recommend that the DCI resist at
this time the temptation to name a single AI focal point or lead office for
the Community. We suggest, instead, that the Community rely on developing
a program of information exchange concerning applied AI. Such a program
can and should be sponsored through the AI subcommittee of the IR&DC.
2. IR&DC Subcommittee on AI
To coordinate the exchange of information in this field, we recommend
that a new subcommittee be established within the IR&DC to exchange
technical information, track basic research, evaluate Community
requirements from a technical perspective, and review technically the
development of Community AI systems. This subcommittee would serve as the
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major coordinating body for AI activities within the ommunity as well as
coordinate Al research efforts on the outside. Spe ifically, as indicated
below, this subcommittee will interface with DARPA/Ca member of the IR&DC
but not of the IC). As another example, a serie of specific
recommendations have been developed by the EXRAND, including several
involving AI technology and these are endorsed by the IR&DC. These are
summarized in attachment-C. As a part of its charter the new IR&DC AI
subcommittee would monitor the progress of AI activities such as those
proposed by EXRAND. F-1
3. Basic Al Research
While artificial intelligence has been under development for more than
25 years, there remain many fundamental problems to be solved. We
recommend that continued encouragement. be given to DARPA, NSF, ONR, and
other funding agencies to support basic research in artificial
intelligence. Historically, these agencies have been providing more than
$10 M per year for AI research during this period. We hope that similar
levels of support would be continued in the future. The IR&DC would then
serve a coordinating role in expressing the needs of the Community to these
funding agencies. F
4. IC Applications of AI
There are many areas where'AI technology could be applied to
intelligence problems. Several initial efforts are already underway to
investigate the application of expert systems, natural language processing,
image understanding, and logic programming technologies and methods. A
preliminary list of potential Community applications appears in attachment-
B. This initial list presumably will be expanded and continually refined
by the IR&DC AI subcommittee. As usual, identifying suitable applications
and expressing-Intelligence Community requirements to the research
community will be a challenging task requiring a deep understanding of both
AI technology and IC needs.
5. AI Computing Environment
Systems involving artificial intelligence generally have special
requirements which necesitate a computer environment that is somewhat
different from,the classical data processing centers of the Community.
Consequently, the development of AI applications in thoi Community will
necessitate the member agencies' acquiring a diversity of computer
equipment (e;g., machines specifically designed to run the LISP programming
language). The various Program Managers should begin planning now to
allocate resources for these facilities. Admittedly a diversity of
computing equipment (and vendors) will be a hardship on ADP managers.
However, such equipment is essential at least for in-house research and
development efforts. Of course, every effort should be made as systems are
developed to ensure that operational systems will be as compatible as
possible with individual agency ADP masterplans and traditional mainframe
equipment. F-1
6. Classified In-House AI Laboratories
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Current efforts to establish classified, in-house AI laboratories such
as those in CIA-ORD, and ETL should be encouraged and expanded with
additional funds. The special research-user relationships needed to
develop applied AI support to operations argues for several distributed
facilities as opposed to a centralized approach. Quality Government
laboratory facilities will not only provide the computing resources
necessary to conduct AI research and development but will also provide a
mechanism for training Government personnel and attracting competent
researchers from the universities and private industry. While recognizing
the special security and privacy needs of each of the agencies,
consideration should nonetheless be given to the electronic networking of
selected Community AI research facilities to further 'the exchange of
knowledge and information in the field. Recent advances in network
security and compartmented dissemination substantially reduce the risks
associated with such interconnections. F
7. Unclassified AI Laboratory
In addition to in-house facilities for developing classified AI
applications, the Community could also benefit from an unclassified
facility which is connected electronically to other unclassified AI
research centers outside the Community. Such a connection most likely
would be via the existing ARPAnet which already connects most of the AI
research centers in the U.S. The IC unclassified AI facility could be
operated under contract following models established by DARPA such as the
Information Sciences Institute at the University of Southern California.
This facility could be used to cut down on Government commercial software
development costs by providing Government-furnished computer time to
contractors in an environment similar to the classified environment into
which the operational system must eventually be placed. F
8. End-User Commitment
The basic paradigm of an AI system is to develop a functionally
capable system in the laboratory and then to load it with specific
knowledge about the intended application. This knowledge is generally
obtained from the customers for whom the system is being built. We
recommmend that guidance be.given to the various components to plan for a
substantial consumer commitment to identify experts and to make them
available to provide the-required domain-specific knowledge. Further,
these internal customers for AI technology will also need to plan.adequate
resources for operating -and maintaining such systems once they are
developed. Active user involvement in the technology transfer process
should be ensured from the beginning. F1
9. AI Training
Perhaps the most important consideration for a long-term commitment to
artificial intelligence will be the establishment of an adequately trained
Government work force. Sufficient understanding of the tools and
techniques of AI will be required of Government personnel to identify
suitable applications, to monitor contracts, to select hardware and
software, and to apply commercially developed products to the Community's
needs. Because of strong competition for the relatively few skilled AI
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systems people available, the Community will have to establish training
programs to develop its own internal expertise. Options available for
acquiring this expertise include:
9.1 Establishing close relationships-with the major AI research centers
through summer institutes, post-doctoral fellowships, hosting
professors on sabbatical, and extended on-site apprenticeships with
the centers. F__1
9.2 Encouraging and assisting employees to seek formal courses or
graduate school training in AI and knowledge engineering.
9.3 Conducting an Al seminar or lecture series for members of the
Community. F-1
9.4 Sponsoring periodic Al:symposia similar to the one recently hosted
by CIA-ORD and CIA-OSWR'at CIA Headquarters. F1
9.5 Developing a series of internal training courses for AI system
developers and end-users. F]
9.6 Providing internships at Community AI laboratories for academic or
industrial AI researchers.
Early consideration should be given to recruitment and training in FY-83
and 84 to form a cadre of knowledgeable personnel around which to build a
viable program of applications beginning in FY-85.. F7
10. The Scale of Community Efforts
It is premature to recommend a consolidated resource level to be
applied to the program Community-wide. Experience has shown that
substantive AI implementations in other areas require 25-50 person-years to
achieve significant results on a single application. While this is not
extraordinary when compared to other system development efforts, it is
important to recognize that AI systems can be costly and may require
several years to implement. At current prices, a well-designed AI
laboratory typically might cost 0 In fact, as outlined in
attachment-C, the EXRAND subcommittee of COMIREX recently recommended that
AI laboratories of ORD and ETL be enhanced by an additional0 in
FY-83. Each Program Manager will want to assess the 'facilities available
to him and weigh these against his agency's requirements before submitting
a budgetary request. There are, however, several actions which could be
developed on a Community-wide basis and which can benefit each of the
agencies while avoiding redundancy. These activities of common concern
could include setting up common AI training programs, establishing an AI
software clearinghouse, and developing selected AI system development
tools. Case-by-case investigation will be required to assess the trade-
offs of the economy of scale of common actions versus meeting program-
unique requirements. F-1
11. The Need for Artificial Intelligence
To reiterate, the Intelligence Community is faced with a continuing
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set of technical problems involving the collection, processing, and
reporting of intelligence. Advances in collection technology promise to
continue to provide more data than we can process with common data
processing technology. Valuable human expertise is lost every year as
knowledgeable analysts retire or otherwise move on from their positions.
Confusion mounts over just what it is that a particular quantitative
technique really models or how to set the parameters to make it work.
Information systems continue to be developed which are inflexible to
changes in requirements and costly to modify. In short, much is being
spent on developing automated systems, but the practical utility of such
systems is not all it could be.
In conclusion, we believe that artificial intelligence is the only
technology today with the promise of yielding the kinds of information
systems needed to process the-projected volumes of data and present it in a-
way that is meaningful to and efficient of our human analysts. The time is
now to begin to build the kinds of systems which will be required by the
mid- to late-Eighties, systems which employ the techniques of artificial
intelligence. F-1
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As n'prev.ious+years, I wish to emphasize the importance of developing
innovative technical and. operational solutions to the intelligence problem"
that face us Creative;planning.and application ;.of appropriate.. technology
should ,al;low, us to .;achieve ,the , significant :`progress of which we. are
.capable,
increase -our extorts to,~taKe aavantage ;or tnis technology. I oe.ieve that
the ;advancedarea of computer science, "Artificial Intelligence" :, .has :much
to offer the ~Commun'itv.. ,:..To ':this rend. -I .have, reaffirmed fast .year's'DCI
it (U)"
V OAL, l L, G S 1{V /,J111Q11 {..e llCil powGJ. alert .and J. roducti V I . has been
modfied't`to recognize explicertly.;ahe potential 'contr:ibution of advanced
GOAL 12: To Erihance-Manpower.Talent and Productivity (U)
j .' Intelligence analysis..'and";production remain a,manpower intensive
critical shortage of scarce?ski.l
effort and, we continue to suffer, from a
?
Methods must`-be found t'o Sensure intelligence access to the necessary skills
and to leverage through computer technologies, our ;r'es:ident.;talents The
sAor.tageo:f linguists and regional''analy'sts ',hil`l..be particularly cr'it.ical.,.
but'.eng'ineers and technica''lspecialistswildalsobe in short supply Ways
improve the'. productivity rof .available ,personne:l
le ~capabilit' ,of ''the=,'Inte;lligence Community to',,recruit,..retain:, and.
ensure. srhe' ~product.ivity;. of,necessary :manpower :remains: 'limited.: Zolleges:
and:un rve,r?sities `continue tor;p'roduce insufficient graduates with the skills
?
regu'i'r`ed'by`:`the Community, nor -is-the shortage likely to be remedied
through the ;decade: And', hile publicperceptions-?a're_:slow.ly'?c hangin'g'.; .the.
esCduarl negative public attitude :'toward intelligence;; and, competition;;
wF, r
rom the =xpriva:te sector for gthe same skillst`.t Consequently:; it 'rema'ins
ifficufit= .to find"?;guali`fmiedb personnel, .:even `when` manpower?posionst+are
,CONFIDENTIAL
ATTACHMENT-A
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should endeavor to initiate ::programs' that will ;improve."the'
Community'_sability to recruit and retain the manpower necessary Further,
you should endeavor toinitiate. programs, .baseda upon the most :promis?
..computer science advances, tomultip:l.ythe',produdtivityof available
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