CENTRAL AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R001403230005-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/02/25: CIA-RDP85M00363R001403230005-8
SECRET
The overall political/military situation in Central America
continues to be one of great concern to the U.S. intelligence
community.
-- Despite some setbacks, Cuba's and Nicaragua's goal of
spreading revolution throughout the region remains
unchanged.
-- They see the situation in El Salvador, in particular, as
developing in their favor.
Nevertheless, Havana and Nicaragua are concerned that the
growing anti-Sandinista insurgency in Nicaragua is resulting in
increased military economic costs which may hinder their goals in
the rest of the region.
-- So far, however, Cuba and Nicaragua appear determined to
continue their militant policies while giving lip service
to a desire for negotiated solutions.
El Salvador
-- The general military stalemate in El Salvador continues,
but the insurgents appear to have gained the tactical
initiative since last October.
-- While the insurgents have suffered heavier losses, they
have been able to maintain a full-time strength of about
4,000-6,000 men, but we do not believe their mass base has
grown significantly.
-- The leftist alliance has skillfully projected an image of
unity at home and abroad while concealing serious tactical
and ideological differences among the five insurgent
groups.
-- For its part, the Salvadoran government has shown
stability, and it has continued to function despite a
protracted guerrilla war and without any perceptible
erosion of popular support.
-- Meanwhile, the arms flow to the Salvadoran insurgents
continues relatively unabated, despite increased regional
efforts to interdict it. The arms in question are
primarily of Western manufacture, many of them U.S. weapons
traceable to Vietnam. It is difficult to estimate the
precise quantities being delivered
BEGET
Approved For Release 2008/02/25: CIA-RDP85M00363R001403230005-8
 Approved For Release 2008/02/25: CIA-RDP85M00363R001403230005-8
SECRET
Nicaragua
-- Despite Nicaragua's military superiority, the probability
is low that it will launch a major attack against Honduras.
-- Nevertheless, low-level clashes between Honduras and
Nicaragua probably will continue, as Managua seeks to focus
international attention on the border.
Costa Rica
-- Costa Rica remains the most politically stable nation in
Central America, but the crisis in the region is causing
strains in the government.
Guatemala
-- In Guatemala, President Rios Montt continues to push for a
political opening which is eventually intended to culminate
in an elected civilian government.
-- The opening faces serious obstacles, however, which may
impede its progress.
-- The war against the insurgents - a mix of military and
civic actions - is going well.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/02/25: CIA-RDP85M00363R001403230005-8