INSURGENCY: SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE LAST DECADE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000801790004-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2007
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: April 20, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/08/31: CIA-RDP85M00363R000801790004-7
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director
This is the paper on Insurgency that
you asked for.
Charles E. Waterman
VC/NIC
20 April 1983
FORM 1ni USE PREVIOUS
Approved For Release 2007/08/31: CIA-RDP85M00363R000801790004-7
 Approved For Release 2007/08/31: CIA-RDP85M00363R000801790004-7
SUBJECT: Insurgency: Significant Trends in the Last Decade
1. The purpose of this memorandum is to highlight an obvious but
insufficiently noted shift in the political nature of insurgencies
worldwide. Most insurgencies a decade ago were leftist or at least anti-
Western due to intense nationalism. They were generally backed by the
Soviets or their representative, and were victorious. This situation no
longer pertains.
2. Specifically:
-- In 1973, 10 politically significant insurgencies were
underway (see chart). Nine were anti-Western in political
content, of which seven were victorious in at least the short
run. The one anti-leftist insurgency lost.
-- In 1983, there are 12 politically significant insurgencies
extant. Six are anti-leftist in political content, of which
the outcome of five remains in dispute and one has been largely
suppressed. There are also six anti-Western insurgencies of
which the outcome of three remains in dispute and three have
been largely suppressed.
-- Four of the now ongoing anti-leftist insurgencies are against
leftist regimes resulting from successful 1973 insurgencies.
Soviet "victories" have not been turned into "defeats" but they
have become costly.
-- In at least two anti-leftist insurgencies, the Soviets probably
believe there is US support.
3. This situation must affect Soviet judgments on support to
insurgencies, probably as follows:
-- "Peoples Revolutionary War," formerly a leftist preserve, has
become a two-edged sword.
-- Direct intervention, as in Afghanistan, does not guarantee
success.
-- Leftist insurgencies are no longer cheap instruments by which
to project influence. Initial victories in such wars may be
ephemeral, and increasingly costly.
-- Increasing Western, and particularly US support, to anti-
leftist insurgencies is a disturbing trend, and must be
considered a real possibility.
CONFIDENTIAL
Please note this paper is intended only as informed speculation in order to
stimulate thinking. It is not finished intelligence or a hard prediction.
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 Approved For Release 2007/08/31: CIA-RDP85M00363R000801790004-7
CONFIDENTIAL
-- Support by a leftist state to insurgencies in neighboring
countries may now trigger a retaliation internally in the
supporting state. This possibility gives any operational
planner pause.
4. In short, we have moved away from a situation in which insurgency
was a leftist monopoly. In part this is simply because there are more
established leftist governments, in part because of more aggressive Western
tactics, and in part because of activist regional policies of certain
conservative regimes (i.e. South Africa). For reasons outlined in
paragraph 3, a case can be made that the overall trend is desirable from
the US perspective.
Attachment:
Chart
CONFIDENTIAL
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689-83
vurluCI711ML NLL. w 1111. c
POLITICALLY SIGNIFICANT INSURGENCIES
Admittedly this chart oversimplifies the complex local issues at stake in
these conflicts by putting them in solely east-west terms, but is used for
illustrative purposes.
1973 Winner
Nicaragua Anti-Western Guerrillas Anti-Leftist Regime Guerrillas
Angola of to of If It
Mozambique N "
Vietnam N
Cambodia " N N N "
Laos 11 of
Zimbabwe It " "
Oman " Regime
PLO/Israel " If N " to
Iraq/Kurds Anti-Leftist Guerrillas Anti-Western Regime If
1983 Winner
?
*Nicaragua Anti-Leftist Guerrillas Anti-Western Regime ?
to If If 11
*Angola
?
*Mozambique of Is If " ?
*Afghanistan is If 81
?
*Kampuchea If It I# Regime
*Ethiopia/Eritrea N
El Salvador Anti-Western Guerrillas Anti-Leftist Regime
Guatemala N
Namibia ?
North Yemen N Regime
Western Sahara N N N N ~'
PLO/Israel N it If
*Leftist takeover in 1970s
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