TRENDS IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS TO THE PRC: 1979-1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2008
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: January 5, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
~~+~~~ iv~.iYt 1HL
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Committee on Export Control
A Subcommittee of the Technology Transfer Intelligence ('ommittee
EXCON-C-017
5 January 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. David Gries
NIO/EA
SUBJECT: Trends in High Technology Exports to the PRC: 1979-1982
Attached_is the report you requested on December 10, 1982. Considerable
effort was expended by members of the TTIC Secretariat in acquiring and
evaluating the data on the exports of high technology to the PRC. Time did
not permit us to coordinate this paper with either the members of TTIC/EXCON
or elements in the Department of State and the Department of Commerce which '
supplied the data. We believe, however, that the data is qualitatively good
enough to support the broad trends that are depicted in the report.
Chairman
Attachment:
A/S
Not referred to DOC. Waiver applies.
State Dept. review completed
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
~.vni 1 UCIY 11HL
TRENDS IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS TO THE PRC: 1979 - 1982
CONCLUSION
The number of approved US high technology export transactions has more
than doubled from 1979 through 1982. The number of approved US COCOM cases
for the PRC increased four and a half times between 1979 and 1982. Since
October, 1981 ,. there has been a significant number of license applications for
the export of munitions list commodities to the PRC; prior to October, 1981,
there were no applications.
INTRODUCTION
Trend data are not readily accessible on the quantity and types of US
high technologies which are being exported to the PRC. The trends included in
this paper were derived from data of varying quality that exists in the
Department of Commerce and the Department of State. Data were obtained from
the Office of Export Administration, Department of Commerce, on those US
exports which required review according to the Export Administration
Regulations (EAR). Data on US and non US exports to the PRC that required
COCOM review was obtained from EWT/EB, Department of State. Finally, data was
obtained from the Office of Munitions Control, Department of State, on
technologies exported to the PRC that required review based on the
International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).
The data and observations are presented in three sections, (1) US EAR
Cases, (2) COCOP~1 Cases, and (3) US ITAR Cases. While the data suggest that in
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
.. .. ... ...~i. i anL
recent years there has been a significant overall increase in the number of US
technology exports to the PRC, one must exercise caution in interpreting
yearly changes due to the variability in the quality of the data. We believe,
however, that the general observations provided in this paper are valid.
US EAR CASES
US EAR cases are those domestic export transactions subject to review
and authorization by the Department of Commerce as prescribed by the Export
Administration Act. The following figure (Figure 1) shows the number of US
technology export cases for the PRC which were approved from 1979 through
1982.
There has been a sharp increase (more than 300 percent) in the total
number of US technology export cases to the PRC from 1979 (661 cases) to 1981
(2141 cases). The total number of cases increased only slightly from 1981 to
1982.
The number of US high technology export cases which were approved for the
PRC has more than doubled since 1979. Nearly 80 percent of the US cases were
approved which were submitted to COCOM in both 1981 and 1982. Note should be
made of the fact that a certain amount of technology is transferred when a
commodity is authorized for export, i.e., maintenance, repair, and operational
information.
COPJFI2ENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 -
I
-
i ~
~ --r----~------ - --------- -- --- ; - ; -~- - ; -- +- -j-- -, ---- --- ,
Approved For Release 2008/08/07 :CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
'
-T
I
i
US IiI ~ T
i
~ I j
I
i _
i
T~ -
I
I
I
I
i
'
i
~
~
i
i
~
i
i I
~
~
i
_
~
!
! ~
! !
I
~
_
i
i
~~ ~
i
_
!! I ~
_-
~
~
~
~
z o
i
~
~
1
~
.~-_
~ ~ (
!
~
i
-+--
-
~
2
__
i
~
~ I
i~
-
~ i i i
-~ i i
!
(
.~
I i'
~_ ~
_
~ _
~
__
i
~
O
i
~ i
~
!
I
~
_
--
I
~
i
i
-
~
_
-
i
I
I ~_ I i _
~ I ~ i
~
~
I
T
T
~ ~
i I ~I
'
I
~
j!
-
--
- I
-~
-
-
~
_ I j ' ' ~
-
-
I
-
' ~ AF'PRQVED
- ~
--
-
1
I
! i ,
~
, -
T
T
.
' i
~
_
~
- ~_--
--i-
~-
~-
-
--
~
~'
----
~ ~ 40
_ ~_-
_._ _
(~
~I ' 20
M
G7I
ioo
-_ +- __ - _
_!
-~- i-
I
-
_~~o
i---
1J
.-_
~
I
b
~ _
--
-
I
-
~
~
--+
_
I
_
I i
~~
I
~-
I I
I
~(
--r
~
- ~ --~-
i ~
_~ I
__~
~
~ ~
~ I
---
_
l
i_
i
~
l
i i j i i
- , ! ~ I I
~ --- -- ~ ~-- --
~- 1 i _ i ~
~ I _ _! ~
i i-__.-_-.-_ I____- ~ i i I I I.
! ~_! --.j ~ .__ ~ i ! I r
I ~, I I
I
i '~ ~ I ~ ! I ! I ~1 I i I ~
l i i ~-__, ~ i i i! i~ I I I I
1-
- I I I- i ~ ~ r-
~
! I I j i
-~
-
--~-
2 _
II
-~-
-~-~-, J
I I I~ i I~ i , I ~
I
~ I I I I i ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ i I
r
-~
-
_
_ i 19 79 _i___~_- i ~ 198 0 ' -- i ~ 1981 I j ' l n
2
I
-
-
--~---- ---r- -~---
,-- YF.AItS -
~
I~ i i ~
Data so ~
urce. Data '~~as su
--
-
i I j i!
~ie
b theme
f
E
PP ~
i
X
ff
~ j
~
_
n
~
-
_
,__
_ - -
- -----~
_ _
~
-
.
.
~~,o
x-P
r-
-
_az~t
-~-
! I l i Department
lof Commerce I j
I
I ~
_1_ ~___
_
~
t
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
In 1981 and 1982 the number of cases which were not approved, that is,
rejected or returned without action, was about 400 or about 17 percent of the
total number of cases for each of the two years. From 1981 to 1982 there was
a slight decrease in the number of cases ~.~hich were not approved.
A relatively small number of cases are pending at the end of each year;
usually, they are acted on in the following year.
The dollar value (see Table 1) of the US technologies exported to the PRC
has remained relatively stable from 1979 through 1982. The data in Table 1
shows that there has been a steady increase in the value of exports in the
category of electronic and precision instruments. This category includes
computers and related equipment. Other commodities of relatively high value
include nonmilitary aircraft engines, electronic test equipment,
recording/reproducing equipment, and lasers/laser systems.
4
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
TABLE 1
VALUE OF US TECHNOLOGIES EXPORTED TO THE PRC: 1979 - 1982
($M)
1979
1980
1981
1982
Transportation Equipment
360.5
212.4
267.2
291.6
Electronic and Precision
Instruments
86.6
102.1
153.2
144.9
General Industrial Equipment
1.9
38.7
7,g
7,g
Metal Working f~achinery
7.3
3.2
1.3
9.1
Chemicals, ~~letalloids,
Petroleum Products
1.2
0.1
15.9
0.04
Chemical and Petroleum
Equipment
0,6
6.1
0.2
0
Electrical and Power
Generation Equipment
h1etals
Miner
l
0
0.2
0.5
0.02
,
a
s, and Their
Manufacturing
0.01
0.01
0.03
0,2
Miscellaneous
Total
0.2
26.6
21,9
1.0
458.3
389.4
468.0
454.7
Data source. Data was provided by the Office of Export Administration
D
,
epartment of Commerce. '
5
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
COCOM CASES
COCOM cases are those which are submitted to the Coordinating Committee
in Paris for international review under agreements with the West European
allies and Japan. This review is based upon a special list of controlled
commodities formulated to cover items of strategic and security concern. The
data in Figure 2 shows the trends in US and non US technology export cases
which deal with exports to the PRC via COC0~~1 from 1979 through 1982. The
total number of COCOrt cases for the PRC in 1982 (i.e., 714) was three times
greater than the number in 1979 (i.e., 234).
The number of approved US COC0~1 cases for the PRC increased from 122 in
1979 to 531 in 1982 -- an increase of four and a half times. The percentage
of US COC0~~1 cases for the PRC increased from 52 percent of the total number of
cases in 1979 to 74 percent of the total number of cases in 1982. In 1982,
Japan, UK, and 'Vest Germany accounted for 23 percent of the number of cases.
High cost US commodities approved by COCOM for export to the PRC include
electronic computers and related equipment, electronic manufacturing equipment
and related test equipment, electronic components, integrated circuits, and a
computerized location system.
CO~JF I DENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 ---
- -?
Ap
pro
ved
~
For Re
r------ - - __ - _--
-
lease 2008/08/07 :CIA-RDP85M00363R00
- _
050
099
-
001
0-2
--
i
-
!
-
I
-~ ~ _.,,_.~'
S and ~ 1\ON US HIGH TECI WOLOGY ~ PORT
~
~
j
_~_ _ j
.
TO 'll-ii: ' PRC VIA COCOM: ~ 1979- 98
~
--
I
i
j
~-
I_
--
-
(
-
~
-- -
-
_
~
~ I I ~
i I I
~
~ I
~ ~
_
I
~
!
-
I
j
I
I
_~
I
i
~
T
l
00
~
_
_
~
_
_
--
~ i '
I I
--
I ~
1
--
--I
-
-
~
TOT
AL
~
I
~
_,
- - --r
-~
-
__
~
__
_
~ _
~
~ !
-
~
I
-
I
6
50
i
~
~
~
j
I
__I
!
~
I ~
I I I i
i
j
~
I __!
i
_
~
I
~
1
I
_I
I
i
-!---
a
I
i
I
I j
i
--
-
I
i
l
~
i
j
l i l l
I
I
j
_
_
_
5
~
I
~ I
I
_ ;
~
I
~
i
_ ~
-
i
I
I
~
I ~
~ ';
US CASESI
~
~---
~_
~
_
_
j ~
I
~
I
~
--
-
I
I I I! I I~ i~
l i i l l l
-- -
--
_
-
4
0
-
~ ~ -, ~ ~ i
~ I
~ ~
I j__~i
._
! of
~
_4
0
~--
I
I t ~
~
_
i ~ I j I! ~ I I I.
~ I ! ~ i
j I
I
~
1 i
X
I
3
0
~
~
~ ~
I
~ ~ ~
/ j
'
~
_ . -
~
I
~ 1
I
---~
3
---
b0
-_
~--
I
r-
I
i
I
; ~
~
-- ---
! '~ ~
~
~
I
i
~ ~ ~
,---.- - - -- - - - ~-
-- -- - - -
~ ~ , i~ . ,
r!
1
-
-
-
---
---?- -~
---
--
_
--
-
_
~-
.,~0
--
i
r --
i I
_
_ .___~._ .
I I
j j
-,
_ ~_ _ _ - __ r T-- . ---
i
~ I i ~ / i
~
-
I
i ~
~'
i ~
i
_ __- ~
! I'
i
''
--
~o
I -/
~
I
! I
I
~
j_
~
'
'
I
I
_
-
_
_
__
~--
-
j 5
0_
~
I
I ' I i _i
i
'
~
~
~
1
1
~
i
I
I ~ ~ ~ ! ~ "; ~ ~
i ~
I
~-
--
j-
o
I
I
T- ~ i'~ ~ ~
~~
~
I I
.~-_- i ~ 1979 ~ j 1980 I ~~ ; T1981
-~---,-~---~ - - --~-- ; --- ~- - i ; --
~
-I
~---~--
-
! 19
2
I
I __ ~ I I I I ! ! ,YEARS i ~
--- I
---.-T--r-.-,- -
i I I I ,
I I ~ I
t ~- - ~
~
I
I
I I ~ ! I I ~ ~ I ~ ~_ ~ I __ I I
- _.~__-_.~__._ -_. r
'~T~--j_--_ ~ - -
Data source? 182 d_a_ta obtain ~ p
i~_iir4~th~~e artm
_- _ ._
-~ - ~ en
~a.~.C
omm
~rc
~-C
CO1
~
to
179 81,
I- ~ ~I --~ P 'data obtained from i
-- -~ 3TtiT1CITC i II~, St~te;~ ~ ~
~
__ ,
ndiyidual~,cas~e
I ~
I
og
!sheet
' in EWT/
~B,
j
-
Approved For Release 2008/08/07 :CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
~vrvr i uCly 11HL
The value of the COCOM approved cases to the PRC is shown in Table 2
below.
VALUE OF COCOM CASES TO THE PRC
(5M)
1979
1980
1981
1982
US
484.5
34.5
37.0
88.9
NON US
Germany
12.2
5,4~
12.1
25.9
Japan
21.2
61.0`
99.53
15.8
UK
4.0
3.2
0.5
26.4
Franc
r/
47.0
19.4
0.2
12.4
Othe
2.5
U.5
0.1
4.2
Subtotal ~
86.9
89.5
112.4
84.7
TOTAL
571.4
124.0
149.4
173.6
1/ Belgium, Canada, Netherlands, Denmark, and r~orway.
?/ Includes $43.2M for a computer system for the Shanghai, Baoshan General
Iron and Steel Works.
3/ Includes g46.4M for a color TV assembly plant, $13.1M for measurement
equipment, and $24.2M for a digital?measuring system,
Data source. Data for 1982 provided by the Department of Commerce; data for
1979-81 obtained from individual case log sheets in EWT/EB,
Department of State.
8
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
The total value of COCOM cases to the PRC ,vas 5571.4i~1 in 1979 and $173.6M
in 1982. The US accounted for $484.5M in 1979 and S88.9M in 1982. The high
figure for 1979 includes $221M for six 3oeing Aircraft and S220M for avionic
equipment.
More complete data available for 1982 (see Table 3) shows that COCOM
approved 447 US cases out of a total of 531 US cases which were originally
submitted. In comparison with other countries, the US had a significantly
smaller percentage than other countries of C0COi?1 cases "In Process." Of the
cases "In Process," the US had 150; Japan had 46~; the UK had 38%; and .Jest
Germany had 3?_?0. This suggests that US cases are processed at a faster rate
than are cases from Japan, UK, and !,Jest Germany. This may be due to the
recognition by other COCOi~1 countries that the US cases have been extensively
reviewed by the USG before they are submitted to COCOM.
NUMBER OF COCOM CASES APPROVED, IN PROCESS, OR WITHDRAWN IN 1982
Approved
In Process
Withdra~,vn
Total Cases
US
JAP
447
30
3
531
AN
K
34
1
65
U
'
1
37
25
3
65
.
. GE
~~
23
11
34
OTHER
5
14
~
19
TOTAL
E46
161
j
714
1~ Includes cases from Belgium, Canada, fdetherlands, France, Denmark, and
Norway.
Data source. Office of Export Administration, Department of Commerce.
9
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
~ur~rlutr~llAL
Examination of COCOM data provided by EWT/EB, Department of State, shows
that from 1979 through 1981 the average time required for closing a case was
about one month for both US and non US cases for the PRC. In 1982, the
average time for processing US cases increased to about t~f;o months and for
Japanese and British cases to about one and a half months. The remaining non
US cases for 1982 required about one month for processing.
MUNITIONS CASES
Munitions cases are transactions involving arms or implements of war as
defined by the ITAR and require export authorization by the Department of
State under the arms Export Control Act. The data in Table 4 below shows the
number of applications received by the Office of ~~lunitions Control, Department
of State, during the period 1 October 1931 to 3 December 1982 for licenses to
export US Munitions List commodities to the PRC.
10
COPJF I DENT IAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
~u~r 1 ut~~ t lAL
TABLE 4
LICENSE APPLICATIONS FOR THE EXPORT OF r-1UNITIONS LIST COr?1MODITIES TO THE PRC
Approved Approved
Disapproved
Returned
P
di
en
ng
Total
With
Without
Conditions
Action
1981
July-Sept
O
0
0
0
0
0
0
ct-Dec
23
2
3
11
1
40
1982
Jan-r?1ar
A
J
16
8
4
8
8
44
pr-
une
J
l
S
15
3
'
3
6
30
u
y-
ept
O
t
D
15
5
4
8
17
49
c
-
ec
T
t
l
5
3
0
0
21
29
o
a
i4
Z1
14
30
53
192
Data source.
Office of r~lunitions Control
3ur
f P
,
eau o
olitico - r?lilitary
Affairs, Department of State.
The first license application was received on 6 October 1981; there were
192 license applications in the last 15 months with a value of $39M. Three
applications received in June 1982 were valued at $23M or 60 percent of the
total value. T~rro ofthese applications were for the purchase of a Lear Jet
airplane with modifications including the use of radar for earth resources
mapping. The third application was for 15 sound ranging sets with radio data
links for locating Hostile artillery. All three applications are pending
COCOM approval.
11
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
l.Ulir lUti'~ 1 1HL
Of the total number (i.e., 192) of license applications, 31 were
applications for technical data. 1"echnical data can be sent free of charge
for promotional purposes, exported as part of a license agreement, or sold.
The remaining 111 license applications ~;~ere for a variety of commodities
including the following:
Approved Disapproved
Telephone Equipment Electronic Equipment
Sonar System Torpedo Spare Parts
Night Vision Scopes Communications Equipment
Fire Control System Speech & Voice Scramblers
Aircraft Spare Parts Gyroscopes
Of the license applications, Q5 (or ~9 percent) were approved or approved
with conditions.
There ~.~ere 44 license applications (or 23 percent of the total number of
applications; disapproved or returned ~,vithout action.
Presently, 53 license applications are pending. Two of these
applications are for aircraft spare parts and image intensifiers. Most of the
pending applications are for applications received in the last two quarters of
1982.
Since October 1981, the "time of action"--the difference between the date
the license applicatic,n was received and the action date--averaged 2.5
months. The "time of action" varied from one to 11 months.
The following figure (Figure 3) summarizes the data contained in
Table 4. Care must be exercised in interpreting the trends since there has
been munitions data available only since October 1981. The data show that,
since the third quarter in 1981, there has been an apparent overall increase
12
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
CONFIDEriTIAL
in the number of license applications for '~?unitions List commodities. The
drop in the total applications in the fourth quarter of 1982 may be due, in
part, to the lack of data entries after 3 December 1982. The figure suggests
that while the number of license approvals has decreased during the last six
months of 1982 there has been an increase in the number of applications that
are pending. The number of applications that ~.yere disapproved or returned
without action has remained log.! in comparison to the total number of
applications.
13
COrJF I DENTIAL
Approved For Release 2008/08/07: CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2
 !_ ~
-,
~
-
~__ Approved For Release 2008/08/07 :CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2 I ~ ~ I ~
;-
j
_;-
I
HI ~~f f ECI~[v0 .0 ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ I
O~T ~l ~ DEC 2 ~
i
_
i
~_
l
1
j
-
~
-
~
I
I
__
~ ---
I
~
j
-
-
!
____
!
-
--
I -
i i
--
~
_
!
-L i
_
_
i
~ ~ I
~
!
I i
,
j
i
!
!
~~
!
i
i
I I
i
~ j
, ~
-;
--
I j
~ ~
~
-
I
~
I ~ _-
j
j
I ~
~
^-_
~ I i I
~ ~ ~
_
~
I
j
I
j
I
! I
I
~ I
!
50
~-
I
I ~
' I
:
~
I
l i!
~ I
~
~
i
-
-
I I I
i
-
-
5
I ~
~
I
I I
-
~
-
~- ~ j ! ~ I i j ( ~ ~
~
~
?'
0
! I I i ~ ~ ~ ! I
_ _ ~____
a
--e~ -~
-
i I j -! _ I I ~ ~~ i I I ~
' ~
I
~- - +--- 1
_
_
j
-;-
`d,
~- ~-
~
-1
i I ~~ ~i ~ ~ i
- '
1
~
~
j
I
--t~ i
I
I
~
~
0
- ~
---
i ~
~ __ ~ ~~ i y i
-! I ~
;
~ i 1
'TO
-1
--
_
'
j ~;
TAL.
i
i I ~ i I ~
-,---
~- ' ~ I ~ j
i
-+
-
-
~
~
~
j
~
~ ~
I !
!
a
PEyi'DI~ G
-
-~
5
~
'
~ '
j
~
_
_
~.
o
~
~ ~~
I
~
j j ~ i ~~' I ~ I j
~I, i I I ,~
I
~
j
~I ~
~'~ ~ ~ ~~ 1 ~ ~ i i\ ~
i
'~
-r
---~-
- - - \ DI SAPPROVED
i
~
_
-
_
_~QU/U2TER 3 ~ ', 4
---,-~--~~
I i 2 ,
Z
3 4_
7987, _ I ~
'-=-rt---T- -- ---- --
j l~ I I
- -~-_. -_ -._-_- _._t-_T__t---~_--r
~
I I~ g
82 ' ~ i
I i I
1 y
-
I
1/ ~ License 'applications ~~}L ~
-' - - -`- _--_~_ ich axe a
~ conditions. ~~ j j I
Prouea_plu. ~ ~
P - ~~~~
I ~ I
~ ~'
_
- I I i
r -- * --- ~p - ~- ~ ' ~ ~ '
__-_ 2/ License .a 1 i at ' ons ~~hi
---~ T --- . _ _ ._ 1'~-d
I
? I roV ,
'
is-apP e
j
I
' ~ without 'actin
_
_
x_1-1
.
Approved For Release 2008/08/07 :CIA-RDP85M00363R000500990010-2