SITUATION UPDATE ON LEBANON (14 OCTOBER 1983)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000400670003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 17, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 14, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/01/17: CIA-RDP85M00363R000400670003-6
'TOP S EGRET
Situation Update on Lebanon
(14 October 1983)
The precarious cease-fire continues to hold. Shia gunmen
probably are responsible for recent Marine casualties. The
security committee charged with supervising the cease-fire
suffered a serious setback yesterday when Druze and Shia
representatives stated they would no longer participate.
-- Although there is general agreement on using Greek and
Italian observers for the cease-fire, there is no firm
date yet for their arrival.
President Gemayel has set 20 October as the opening date for
the national reconciliation conference, but there is still no
agreement on a meeting place. Gemayel's decision to set a date
even without agreement on a venue is in part an attempt to put
the onus on Druze leader Walid Junblatt if the conference does
not begin as scheduled.
-- Junblatt continues to refuse to meet at the Presidential
Palace at Babda.
-- Even though the Saudis appear willing to host the
conference, Syria has apparently vetoed Saudi Arabia as a
meeting site.
The preparatory committee met yesterday and agreed upon five
general points for discussion at the reconciliation conference.
-- Equal treatment for all areas of Lebanon.
-- Lebanon's status in the Arab world and international
community.
-- The withdrawal of all other forces whose presence is not
requested by the Lebanese Government.
-- Organization of the Army.
Except for the first point, the preliminary agenda does not
appear to address internal political reforms. The fact that
Syrian troop withdrawal is not mentioned specifically reflects
Damascus' influence in the negotiating process. Although the
Lebanese/Israeli agreement of 17 May is not cited, we expect it
to be a principal sticking point at the conference.
-- If the conferees concentrate on foreign policy issues,
the conference could bog down before coming to grips with
internal issues.
Approved For Release 2008/01/17: CIA-RDP85M00363R000400670003-6
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,:= a ~ ?TOP S ECRE~
-- This apparent decision to focus on the troop withdrawal
question reflects the Lebanese penchant for blame
others for their internal political problems.
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TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/01/17: CIA-RDP85M00363R000400670003-6