LETTER TO (SANITIZED)FROM STEPHEN J. SOLARZ

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85B00263R000100110001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2007
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 14, 1983
• Content Type: LETTER

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OFFICE Of EXTT NAt AKAN
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OANTE B. FASCELL, FLA.
LEE H. HAMILTON, IND.
GUS YATRON. PA.
STEPHEN J. SOLAR. N.Y.
DON BONKER, WASH.
GERRY E. STUDDS, MASS.
ANDY IRELAND, FLA.
DAN MICA. FLA.
MICHAEL D. BARNES, MD.
HOWARD WOLFE, MICA.
GEO. W. CROCKETT, JR. MICH.
SAM GEJOENSON. CONN.
MERVYN M. DYMALLY. CALIF.
TOM LANTOS, CALIF.
PETER H. KOSTMAYER. PA.
ROSERT 0. TORRICEW, N.J.
LAWRENCE J. SMITH, R.A.
HOWARD L BERMAN. CALIF.
HARRY M. REID. NEV.
MEL LEVINE, CALIF.
EDWARD F. FEIGHAN, OHIO
ROBERT GARCIA. N.Y.
WILLIAM S. BROOMFIELD, MICH.
LARRY ANN, JR.. KANS.
BENJAMIN A. GILMAN. N.Y.
ROBERT J. LAGOMARSINO. CALIF.
JOEL PRITCHARD, WASH.
JIM LEACH. IOWA
TOBY ROTH. WIS.
OLYMPIA J. SNOWS. MAINE
HENRY J. HYDE. ILL
GERALD B. H. SOLOMON, N.Y.
DOUGLAS K. BEREUTER. NEBR.
MARK 0. SILJANDER, MICH.
ED ZSCHAU. CALIF.
JOHN J. BRADY. JR.
CHIEF OF STAFF
Director
Office of External Affairs
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
connrtzz of the 'Unittd $tattz
committee on Jordan affairs
Sloane of Repre&ntativen
lanlri*on, B.C. 20515
February 14, 1983
I would like to request that CIA provide a classified briefing on
the Afghan/Pakistan situation to the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific
Affairs. I am also requesting DIA and INR to take part in this briefing,
which I would like to be held on March 1 at 10:00 A.M. in Room H-236 in
the Capitol. The purpose of such a briefing is to make sure that members
of the Subcommittee are fully informed of the situation and outlook on
the key issues in Southwest Asia in preparation for considering the Ad-
ministration's request for a supplemental aid authorization for Pakistan
in FY 1983 and a regular authorization for FY 1984. Since the House
Foreign Affairs Committee probably will do a two-year authorization bill
(FY 1984 and FY 1985) we will need to access likely developments over the
next several years.
I would like the briefing to cover the following topics:
1. The present situation and outlook in Afghanistan. Please access
the military struggle; the outlook for developing effective Afghan military
and security forces; the struggle between the Khalq and Parcham factions of
the regime; the economic situation and outlook; cohesiveness and divisions
among the guerillas and the exiles; and the likelihood of increased refugees
going to Pakistan--and Iran.
2. Soviet policy toward Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Please describe
Moscow's military and political strategy and tactics toward each country, the
cost and benefits (political as well as military and economic) of its effort to
subdue Afghanistan, the actions it has taken (and threatened) to pressure--or
induce-Pakistan to accept the Babrak regime and seek an accomodation with.
Moscow; and Soviet attitudes toward the continuing struggle and toward a com-
promise or negotiated settlement in Afghanistan, including Soviet terms and the
likely consequences in the region of any settlement acceptable to Moscow.
STAT
STAT
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February 14, 1983
3. Pakistan's political situation'and outlook. Please discuss the
strength, weaknesses, and prospects of the Zia regime; the strength and
weaknesses of the major opposition forces; religions, ethnic and regional
tensions in Pakistan; the impact of Zia's Islamicization program; the likely
nature of any successor regime; the impact of the Afghan refugees on
Pakistani politics; the political impact of.recent economic trends; and
the impact of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Pakistan's new security
links with the United States on domestic Pakistani politics.
4. Pakistan's economic situation and outlook. Please describe recent
economic trends in the key sectors of Pakistan's economy and the general
economic outlook over the next few years; the country's economic strengths
and weaknesses and how they are likely to effect its economic performance;
the likely consequences of falling oil prices on the country's oil import
costs and on the value of the remittances from Pakistani workers in the
Gulf area; Pakistan's foreign trade and payments outlook; Pakistan's debt
burden and the country's ability to service its debt.
5. Pakistan's nuclear program.;Please access Pakistan's present
nuclear capabilities, and how these are likely to develop over the next
several years; Pakistan's basic nuclear goals, and the methods it is
using to seek to realize them; the sources and types of assistance it is
obtaining from abroad--both from commercial purchases (open or clandestine)
and from foreign governments; and the costs of the program to date and its
likely future costs. Please give us your assessment of the circumstances
under which Pakistan might explode a nuclear device, and Pakistan's estimate
of the U.S. reaction to such an event.
6. The Afghan/Pakistani/Indian military balance. Please discuss the
evolution of the military strengths and weaknesses of these countries in
recent years, and any-likely changes in the military balance during the
next.several years; the threats Pakistan perceives to its security and its
strategy for dealing with them; the capabilities Pakistan has and will have
over the next several years to deal with various possible Soviet threats;
Pakistan's arms imports from non-US sources, especially the PRC; India's
perceived threats to its security and its strategy to deal with them;
India's arms imports; and the extent to which Pakistan is using US arms to
increase its capabilities along the Afghan frontier, along the Indian border,
and to increase its capabilities across the board.
7. Relations between the countries of the region. Please describe
Pakistani and Indian policy toward each other in recent years, and the out-
look for their relations over the next several years; Pakistan's basic
strategy for dealing with the Afghan situation, including its policy toward
the Afghan guerrilla forces; the pressures for and constraints against any
Pakistani move to accomodate the USSR; the role of and outlook for Pakistan's
links with the PRC and Middle Eastern nations in its basic political-military
strategy; the outlook for Indo-Soviet and Sino-Indian relations; and the
status and outlook for the UN-sponsored negotiations on Afghanistan.
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February 14, 1983
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I would like each of the three agencies taking part in the briefing
to submit written testimony covering those topics for the briefing that
are most appropriate for it. William Barnds, Staff Director of the
Subcommittee, will be willing to discuss this with your staffs to see
that there are no gaps and no needless duplication. At the briefing
will you each summarize your major points in fifteen minutes so there
will be adequate time for questions.
Stephen J
Chairman
Subcommittee on Asian and
Pacific Affairs
STAT
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