TERRORISM REVIEW (U)

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CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9
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RIPPUB
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S
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26
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December 22, 2016
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August 18, 2010
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2
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Publication Date: 
January 24, 1985
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REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Directorate of Intelligence MASTER ffll COPY s+ 4's uU n ; 9 up, K'U Terrorism Review 24 January 1985 Secret Secret GI TR 85-002 24 Januarv 19R5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret 25X1 i Terrorism Review) 25X1 Focus-Ominous Terrorist Developments in Lebanon 3 Highlights 7 Western Europe: RAF Terrorist Campaign Spreads 25X1 25X1 15 Argentina: Current Prospects for Leftist Terrorism 19 Namibia: Start of SWAPO's Annual Rainy Season Cam paign 25X1 25X1 23 Chronology of Terrorism 1984-85 This review is published every other week by the Directo Appropriate articles produced by other elements of the agencies of the US Intelligence Community will be consi rate of Intelligence. CIA as well as by other dered for publication. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Executive Editor Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Terrorism Review Focus Ominous Terrorist Developments in Lebanon Since the beginning of the year, three French soldiers have been murdered in Beirut, and still another American has been kidnaped. Persons purporting to represent Islamic Jihad have claimed credit for two of the murders and also for the kidnaping. If these claims are correct, the incidents reflect a significant increase in the tempo of Islamic Jihad activity. Even more alarming, there are indications that Islamic Jihad may be altering its tactics in ways that would heighten even further the threat to Americans and other Western nationals in Lebanon. The Murders. On 7 January the deputy commander of the French observer force in Beirut was found with a single bullet through his head. No one has claimed responsibility for the assassination. On 14 January two members of the French observer force were sprayed with bullets from a passing car as they patrolled a crowded Muslim section of Beirut in their distinctive white jeep. An anonymous phone caller told the Beirut office of the French news agency AFP that Islamic Jihad had killed the two soldiers because they were spies for NATO, Israel, and the Lebanese Phalangists. On 16 January, however, an anonymous male telephoned the Lebanese newspaper Al Nahar and-also claiming to speak for Islamic Jihad-denied that Islamic Jihad had killed the two French soldiers, although he said that he supports and encourages such operations. We cannot determine at this point which-if either-of these callers actually represented the Shia terrorists who have used the name Islamic Jihad in the past, although we believe that elements of Hizballah were behind both attacks. The Hostages. On 8 January the head of Catholic Relief Services in Lebanon, the Rev. Lawrence Jenco, was abducted by six to eight gunmen as he was being driven to his office in West Beirut. On 11 January an anonymous male, speaking English with a Lebanese accent, telephoned the Associated Press office in Beirut, claimed responsibility for kidnaping Father Jenco in the name of Islamic Jihad, and warned Amal leader Nabih Barri that he would "bear the responsibility of any intervention to release any of the Americans we hold." He explained that Jenco had been kidnaped because Islamic Jihad's "ultimatum" that the Americans leave Lebanon had been ignored. If all Americans-except newsmen-would leave, the caller said, his group would "release all five without any [other] conditions." The admission that Islamic Jihad was holding five hostages was the first confirmation that American University librarian Peter Kilburn, who disappeared last month, had also been kidnaped by the organization. On 14 January, another anonymous phone caller speaking in the name of Islamic Jihad said that the five American hostages-each of whom he named-were to be tried as "agents of the CIA" and that they would "get the punishment they deserve." 1 Secret GI TR 85-002 24 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 A Change in Strategy. Whether or not the murders of the French soldiers were the work of Hizballah terrorists, the kidnaping of Father Jenco almost surely was, and the public assertions regarding the hostages almost certainly are genuine. These assertions are in stark contrast to the secrecy and anonymity that characterized the kidnaping and negotiations for the release of David Dodge, the President of the American University of Beirut. During that incident, the kidnapers never publicly revealed their identities, affiliations, or motives. Now the low public profile formerly cultivated by the Shia terrorists appears to be giving way to a new, more assertive and confident posture. In fact, the Iranian-inspired terrorists apparently have embarked on a propaganda campaign, perhaps hoping to spark the kind of intense American public reaction that marked the prolonged takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran. Moreover, the delivery of the Islamic Jihad threat to a US news agency-previous Islamic Jihad messages have been conveyed through the local media or a French news agency-indicates that an American audience is being targeted. In addition, the warning to Nabih Barri implies that Hizballah believes it is gaining ground at the expense of Amal. The overt tone of challenge to the moderate Shia leader suggests that Hizballah may be trying to attract more widespread support among Lebanese Shias by portraying itself as an alternative to Amal. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Highlights CCC Car Bomb Signals Growing Europeanization of RAF Anti-Imperialist Campaign The campaign in support of the Red Army Faction hunger strikers spread from West Germany to Belgium on 15 January, when the Communist Combatant Cells (CCC) set off a car bomb in front of the US NATO Support Activity building outside Brussels. The bomb heavily damaged the building and blew out windows as far away as 100 meters. The two MPs who were guarding the building were shaken up; one was injured.n deadlier campaign after a pause to reload. In a long-winded communique reminiscent of standard RAF bombast, the CCC claimed credit for the bombing and dedicated its act to the RAF martyrs (those who died in action or in prison) as well as to the RAF members now on a hunger strike. The CCC also announced the end of its "first anti-imperialist campaign," declaring that the campaign had achieved its intended goals. The communique, obviously composed before the bombing, makes clear that the CCC intended and expected that the bomb would kill the two MPs. The group promises a second, Action Directe and RAF Issue Joint Declaration of Guerrilla War In a further indication of the growing Europeanization of the RAF terrorist program, Action Directe and the RAF issued five-page French and German versions of a joint declaration of war on the "totality of the imperialist system." The document stresses the importance of building unity in the struggle against "the imperialist machine" in Western Europe. The formation of such an international "anti-imperialist front" has long been the primary goal of the RAF. Growing Political Violence Already this year, several politically motivated killings have occurred, suggesting a growing tendency in the increasingly polarized Salvadoran society to settle arguments with bullets. No part of the political spectrum seems immune to the violence: ? On 6 January, following a political argument, the chief presidential corruption investigator was murdered by a follower of the National Republican Alliance (ARENA); in turn, the investigator's two bodyguards killed him. ? Two days later, unidentified gunmen killed the Mayor of Santa Elena, a member of the moderate National Conciliation Party. 3 Secret GI TR 85-002 24 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 ? On 11 January, a prominent leftist trade union member was killed in a suburb of San Salvador by two unknown gunmen. ? On 14 January another ARENA member was shot and killed.) French Caribbean ARC Announces Terrorist Campaign On 1 January at a press conference in Barcelona, leaders of the Caribbean Revolutionary Alliance (ARC) announced plans to intensify its terrorist campaign against French interests in the Caribbean. The ARC, which set off more than 20 bombs that wounded 23 persons last year, has already conducted a number of bombings this year. To date the group has used tactics similar to those of the Corsican separatists-many small bombs designed to achieve continuing political impact while limiting casualties and damage. Recent arms seizures, however, indicate the group is capable of more serious attacks.F_-] The French plan to hold a referendum on independence in New Caledonia apparently has encouraged the proindependence groups in the Caribbean, which now want similar treatment. On the other hand, pro-French groups in the Caribbean are reportedly dismayed by the proposed referendum, which they see as capitulation to the demands of a minority. F7 Foreign Aid Personnel Leaving the Southern Region Because of the deteriorating security situation and the poor prospects for any quick improvement, US and other foreign government and private aid groups are evacuating nonessential personnel from southern Sudan. Even the members of the Norwegian Church Aid Group, whose projects in the region are 10 years old, have decided to reduce their presence to the bare minimum.) The Volcano Erupts Again On 13 January in Rome, Libyan diplomat Faraj Umar Makhyun was shot and killed near his home by a gunman armed with a silencer-equipped Walther pistol. Although he may have been wounded by Makhyun's return of fire, the gunman escaped apprehension. The Libyan opposition group Al Burkan (the Volcano) claimed responsibility. The same group also took credit for assassinating Libya's ranking diplomat in Rome last January and for injuring Qadhafi's cousin and confidant Qadhaf al-Dam by blowing up his car in Sirte, Libya, last March.F_ Terrorist Attack Supporting New Caledonian Separatists On 14 January the previously unheard-from "Louise Michel Group" blew up a bus at the Toulouse gendarmarie barracks, apparently in reprisal for the recent deaths of two Kanak (Melanesian) nationalists in New Caledonia. Graffiti left on the wall attacked the role of the special police intervention units from the Toulouse region that were sent this month to New Caledonia to quell civil disorder there.F--] Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Mozambique Louise Michel was a French revolutionary of the time of the Paris Commune who was deported to New Caledonia; thus, the use of his name suggests French rather than Melanesian thinking. It is possible that the Louise Michel Group is composed of New Caledonian separatists living in France, but it seems more likely that this is merely a new name being used to disguise an old group, perhaps the indigenous French leftwing terrorist group Action Directe, which claimed responsibility for two bombings in support of the New Caledonian separatists last month. F__1 More Anti-Druze Bombings in West Beirut On 11 January a bomb composed of a mortar shell attached to 20 kilograms of TNT exploded outside the Druze-owned Bank of Lebanon and Arab Countries, killing three people and wounding 37. A previously unheard-from group calling itself the "Free Youths of Beirut" claimed responsibility and demanded that all Druze leave Beirut. On 12 January two more bombs exploded in Druze-controlled areas, killing three persons and injuring as many as 60; again the Free Youths of Beirut claimed credit. A third bomb of unknown provenience exploded near a Druze checkpoint, but caused no casualties. On 16 January two bombs exploded in a Druze-owned apartment house, killing at least one person and injuring about 40. No group claimed responsibility.) Blame for the bombings has been ascribed variously to the Israelis, to pro-Arafat Palestinians, to the Murabitun (Sunni Muslim militia), and to the extremist Shia Hizballah. We suspect that most if not all of these anti-Druze bombings have been conducted by the Lebanese Forces (Christian militia). The Christians and the Druze have been fighting each other for years, and both sides have used such bombings to supplement more conventional combat. OLF Initiates Terrorist Campaign On 1 January the southern Ethiopian Muslim separatist tribal group Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) began its latest violent campaign by blowing up a bridge. The following day OLF units stopped two taxis and kidnaped the Christian passengers, killing a chief of police when he happened upon the scene. Reportedly, the kidnap victims were later executed. OLF guerrillas also looted stores and robbed the passengers of private vehicles in the area. Similiar OLF attacks against Christians and their property occurred at about the same time last year.) was later captured by local people and beaten to death. New RENAMO Attacks Claim More Than 100 Victims During a recent nine-day period, guerrillas of the Mozambique National Resistance ambushed three buses and attacked a convoy of private vehicles traveling on roads leading to Maputo. In one incident the victims were robbed but that appeared to have been an afterthought. According to press accounts, as many as 60 persons may have been killed and more than 40 wounded in the four attacks. One newspaper reported that a terrorist involved in one of the bloodier incidents Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 ANC Jailbreak or Swazi Duplicity? According to the police, on 2 January, in what seemed to be an operation of the African National Congress, four armed men forced the Mbabanen jail to turn over to them three ANC prisoners. The same armed men reportedly appeared later at other jails and tried but failed to obtain the release of other ANC detainees, but the police have denied this. F-1 The ANC denied any involvement in the incident and charged instead that the Swazis had actually turned the prisoners over to the South Africans. They have requested that the Organization of African Unity intercede with the Swaziland Government to keep it from doing the same to other ANC prisoners. Relations between the ANC and the government have been poor since the government responded to South African pressure by forcing the ANC to curtail its activities in Swaziland, and they deteriorated even further after the ANC murdered a high- level Swazi police officer last month. [] Police Raid Chukaku-ha Armory On 9 January Japanese police raided a safehouse in Yokkaichi, near Nagoya, and arrested two members of the leftwing terrorist group Chukaku-ha (Nucleus Faction). The police also confiscated weapons, several rockets, and various tools and chemicals associated with incendiary devices. The police believe they have uncovered the armory in which were prepared the devices used in four incendiary attacks last year, including the rockets fired by the group at the US Consulate General in Kobe last month. F-1 Probably in revenge, on 11 January Chukaku-ha attacked a Tokyo police research institute using one of its truckmounted flame projectors. No one was injured, but the four-story building was heavily damaged.) Chinese gangsters in California Intelligence Service Implicated in Murder of US Journalist The Taiwan Government admitted on 14 January that some officials of the Defense Ministry's Intelligence Bureau were involved in the murder of Chinese- American journalist Henry Liu in San Francisco last year. The director of the Bureau has been suspended and a full investigation has been promised. Liu had written a critical biography of ROC President Chiang Ching-kuo And at the time of his death was investigating ties between the Taiwan Government and overseas Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Western Europe: RAF Terrorist Campaign Spreads Supporters of the imprisoned Red Army Faction hunger strikers are continuing their low-level terrorist campaign of bombings and arson attacks in West Germany. In addition, other north European countries are experiencing spillover incidents of vandalism and demonstrations related to the hunger strike by indigenous groups. The most serious of these incidents was the car bomb attack by the Communist Combatant Cells of Belgium against the US NATO Support Activity building outside Brussels. Since the CCC's appearance on the scene in October 1984, it had concentrated exclusively on property. Although the car bomb attack caused no casualties, the CCC declared it was only the first in a new phase of its "anti-imperialist" campaign designed to inflict casualties. Below is a chronology of RAF and RAF supporters' attacks against NATO, US, and West German targets since the hunger strike began. 1984 4 December Beginning of hunger strike declared by Red Army Faction members on trial in West Germany. F7 17 December Arson attack against the Seimens Company warehouse in Frankfurt-am- Main. Two-thirds of the building destroyed, $3-4 billion in damage.F_ 18 December Attempted car bombing at NATO officers' training school in Oberammergau. The bomb contained a bucket of bolts for shrapnel effect and 55 pounds of explosives-part of 800 kilograms stolen from a Belgian quarry in June.l 21 December Arson attack damaged two US Army trucks in Frankfurt-am-Main. RAF supporters claimed credit. 25 December Bomb attack at the regional computer center for the Reutlingen adminstrative district, 30 kilometers south of Stuttgart. Front of building destroyed. Claimed by RAF supporters and later by the Revolutionary Cells (RZ). F_ Bomb attack against Turkish Consulate in Muenster. Claimed by the RAF. 26 December Arson attack against US Army chapel in Wertheim: $23,000 to $26,000 in damages. No claim made but RAF supporters believed responsible. 27 December Attack against Siemens Company equipment in Cologne. Claimed by 25X1 RAF supporters in sympathy with hunger strikers. 29 December Attempted firebombing of a storage building at Lindsey Air Station at 25X1 Wiesbaden. Claimed by Anti- Imperialist Front, an RAF periphery group. 0 25X1 30 December Bombing of British Army building housing a US Army intelligence battalion. $20,000 in damages. RAF supporters took credit. Bomb caused $100,000 worth of damage to US Army communication antenna. RAF supporters claimed responsibility. 31 December Bombing of the French Embassy Annex in Bonn caused $32,400 worth of damage. RAF supporters claimed credit.) Secret GI TR 85-002 24 January 1985 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 1985 2 January Firebomb attack against US Consul's residence in Frankfurt-am-Main. Paint thrown at neighboring French Consul's residence. Both claimed by RAF supporters. F_~ 4 January Munich-bound train halted outside of Amsterdam by RAF supporters of hunger strikers. Thirty demonstrators painted slogans on train and handed out leaflets.F___1 7 January Bomb exploded at valve juncture point on NATO pipeline. No damage to pipeline. RAF supporters claimed credit.) 13 January Attempted bombing of Bundeswehr Territorial Defense Command Office in Wiesbaden. Bomb was successfully defused. RAF suspected.F__-] 15 January Car bomb at US NATO Activity Support building. One MP slightly injured, another shaken up. Communist Combatant Cells claimed credit, dedicating their attack to the RAF hunger strikers.0 20 January Bomb exploded prematurely outside the computer offices of Zueblin Construction Company. Killed in the explosion was Johannes Thimme, who served a jail term for membership in a terrorist group and recruiting for the RAF. His accomplice, Claudia Wannersdorfer, was severely injured. Damage to the building was about $1 million.) 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 le Next 5 Page(s) In Document Denied Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Argentina: Current Pros ects for Leftist Terrorism The recent extradition from Brazil to Buenos Aires of Montonero terrorist leader Mario Firmenich has again focused public attention on the danger of a resurgence of leftist terrorism in Argentina. Terrorism by the left has been a persistent source of political instability in Argentina and has played a central role in undermining the authority of both military and civilian regimes. President Alfonsin's tough response to the first inklings of terrorist reorganization shows, in our view, that he understands the gravity of the potential threat. For this reason- and because most of the radical leftists doubt that the current political climate is suitable-we foresee little chance of serious terrorism emerging over the next six months.F__7 Return of the Montoneros The Montoneros, who first emerged in the late 1960s, have long sought to convert Peronism into a movement of the revolutionary left. After Juan Peron's death in 1974, the Montoneros clashed openly with the Peronist Party's conservative leadership and were expelled from the movement by his widow and successor, Isabel. The Montoneros continued to struggle for what they termed "authentic Peronism," becoming one of South America's largest, wealthiest, and deadliest terrorist groups. Nevertheless, they were crushed after the military coup of 1976. The few Montoneros who were not killed or captured by the armed forces were forced into exile, where they launched a largely ineffectual propaganda campaign against the military. numerous Montoneros returned to Argentina in the months following the election in October 1983 of the new civilian government. If they expected any lenience from the authorities, however, it did not materialize. Alfonsin, who personally abhors terrorism and needs to hold the left accountable for its crimes if he is to successfully prosecute the military for its excesses during the antiterrorist campaigns of the late 1970s, took a tough stance regarding the Montoneros. Two top Montonero leaders, Ricardo Obregon and Oscar Bidegain, were arrested soon after they returned to Buenos Aires in December 1983, and Firmenich has remained in custody since his extradition from Brazil in October 1984. Moreover, public statements by government officials indicate 25X1 that Alfonsin-despite cutbacks in military spending-intends to preserve the military's ability to monitor terrorist capabilities. Internal Divisions In our view, these arrests dealt a severe blow to the Montonero movement and have hindered its efforts at reorganization. With their most experienced leaders 25X1 in prison or in hiding, the Montoneros' once-solid chain of command has broken down. two basic currents have emerged: a 25X1 relatively moderate majority faction loyal to Firmenich and a number of splinter groups more prone to violence.F___1 The Firmenich faction has publicly abjured violence, asserting that the Montoneros will now concentrate on electoral politics. Before his arrest, Ricardo Obregon announced the dissolution of the Montoneros as an armed force and their reconstitution as the Authenti, . however, that instead of forming an independent 25X1 party, the Montoneros have attempted to infiltrate the regular Peronist movement's radical left wing, the 25X1 Peronist Intransigence and Mobilization IMP faction; Secret GI TR 85-002 24 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 We believe that the Montoneros' current goal is to gain full control of the IMP and use it to turn the entire Peronist movement toward the revolutionary left. The Montoneros are supplementing this strategy by infiltrating Peronist-controlled trade unions and rural cooperatives. We believe that the Firmenich faction's rejection of violence is only a tactical maneuver and that it would return to armed struggle under more favorable circumstances. The Montoneros have pledged in the past to work for peaceful change, but they quickly reverted to violence when conditions shifted. Furthermore, members of the group are rearming and continuing to train in terrorist tactics and guerrilla warfare. Recent public statements by Roberto Perdia and Fernando Vaca-the top Montonero leaders not in prison-have hinted at a resumption of violence if Alfonsin continues to "persecute" the movement. F_~ The immediate danger, however, stems from those Montoneros who question the leadership's cautious stance. Although not divided among themselves about other issues, such as leadership, they all doubt that the Montoneros can ever dominate Peronisnrand are eager to resume violence. provinces, where it conducted sporadic rural guerrilla warfare until the late 1970s. Like the Montoneros, the group was ravaged by the military's post-1976 crackdown. the ERP lost 85 percent of its cadre and close to 95 percent of its weapons, safehouses, and vehicles during that period. Press reports indicate that remnants of the ERP- probably no more than 100 persons-returned to Argentina in the wake of the election of Alfonsin. As with the Montoneros, the group split into moderate and radical factions. Unlike the Montoneros, however, the ERP appears to be fairly well organized and cohesive, and it follows the orders issued by exiled leaders in Nicaragua. the exiled ERP leaders- chief of whom is Enrique Gorriaran-have declined to return home because they believe that Alfonsin would have them arrested just like the Montonero leaders. The ERP is reportedly seeking to expand its political base by infiltrating the small but influential far-left Intransigent Party (PI). The ERP has chosen the PI because the two groups are ideologically compatible and, because the ERP wants to avoid competing with the Montonero penetration of the Peronists. The ERP has also been active in a handful of leftist labor unions and some of Argentina's human rights organizations. Its overall success in these efforts is unclear, the ERP's long-term goal is to return to Reorganization of the ERP Argentina's other significant leftist terrorist group is the People's Revolutionary Army (ERP). In contrast to the vague populism espoused by the Montoneros, the ERP's ideology is rooted in Trotskyite Marxism- Leninism and has drawn inspiration more from Castro and Mao than from Peron. Emerging concurrently with the Montoneros, the ERP was smaller and was concentrated in Argentina's interior armed struggle. In the meantime, however, the group's more moderate sector has effectively reined in unruly elements who want to initiate violence immediately. Recently, for example, exiled leaders reportedly denied permission for an ERP cell to recover arms from a cache established in the late 1970s. While reassuring as to the movement's short- term intentions, this may indicate that the ERP retains at least a rudimentary capability to undertake 25X1 25X1 2.X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret terrorism if it decides to abandon its current policy of relying solely on political infiltration ERP-Montonero Contacts The ERP and the Montoneros have begun to set aside longstanding ideological disputes and work together. Representatives of the two groups held a meeting in Cordoba Province in April 1984, according to press Foreign Support Although ERP-Montonero collaboration may ease logistical barriers-such as the lack of sufficient weapons and funds-to a resumption of terrorism, in our view, the radical left would still require considerable foreign support before it presented a serious threat to Argentine democracy. At present, prospects for such aid are dim: Outlook We believe that the ERP and the Montoneros will concentrate on political activity for at least the next few months. Both groups recognize that, in the wake 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 of the terrorist bloodletting and military repression of the 1970s, there is scant popular support in Argentina for political violence. And the Alfonsin government's arrest and prosecution of Montonero leaders has sent a clear message to the left that a return to terrorism will bring swift retribution. The Montoneros will not, in our view, succeed in wresting control of the Peronist movement from the center-right. Senator Saadi and the IMP faction have recently suffered a series of setbacks and appear to be losing status within the party. At best, the Montoneros can hope to retain a voice in the Peronist movement left via the IMP or, if the movement splits, dominate a small independent radical Peronist faction. The ERP has slightly better prospects for expanding its political influence through the Intransigent Party. The PI did well in recent student elections, and polls show that it could become a vehicle for the expression of leftist discontent with Alfonsin. The party lacks a national structure and following, however, and its radical ideology has historically prevented it from attracting more than 5 to 10 percent of the electorate. Although leaders of both the ERP and the Montoneros are likely to be preoccupied with political machinations over the coming months, the possibility of violence by dissident elements of either organization cannot be discounted. Such evidence is more likely in the case of the Montoneros, where discipline appears to be weaker. We believe that the Montoneros' radical fringe does have the capability to conduct kidnapings and assassinations. Such actions could be triggered by further arrests of terrorist leaders, a harsh verdict in the trial of Firmenich, or provocation by rightwing terrorists. But we also believe that, under present circumstances, such leftist violence can be contained by the security forces. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Namibia: Start of SWAPO's Annual Rainy Season Campaign An upsurge of guerrilla attacks and skirmishes in northern Namibia in December probably signaled the beginning of this year's rainy season infiltration by the South-West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO). The seven reported attacks suggest that so far the infiltration remains shallow and small scale, but they include a higher incidence of urban bombings than is usual for this time of year, when the guerrillas normally concentrate on military targets. The.South African and Namibian responses have been limited to defensive operations in northwestern Namibia and the South African-occupied strip of southern Angola. Pretoria has warned, however, that it will mount a "massive countereffort" if SWAPO conducts a full-scale infiltration involving several hundred guerrillas like it did last year.-] An Annual Event During each of the past several years, SWAPO has begun a campaign of guerrilla operations in Namibia about the middle of the rainy season-roughly November to April-by infiltrating guerrillas from its bases in Angola. At that time dense foliage and clouds provide good concealment, the rains wash away the guerrillas' tracks, and pools of potable water are readily available in the normally and countryside. Typically, the SWAPO units concentrate initially on conducting hit and run attacks on the government forces, mounting standoff attacks against military bases with mortars and rockets, and mining the roadways indiscriminately. Since SWAPO has no bases in Namibia, most of the guerrillas return to Angola when their supplies run low. A few remain in Namibia during the dry season, however, and begin attacking civilian targets.F__1 Last year, SWAPO began its infiltration in January; guerrilla contacts peaked in March; and the insurgents turned to urban bombings in mid-April, The firing of 30 mortar rounds at a police camp one day in February probably involved a dozen or more guerrillas, whereas the small bombs planted in Windhoek and five northern towns in late April could each have been planted by a single individual.' The Current Campaign Secret GI TR 85-002 24 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret The SWAPO campaign began in early December, as predicted. An assault on a military base close to the border on 6 December was followed by an attack on another base deeper in Namibia later the same week. Since then, in addition to various bombings and standoff attacks, SWAPO guerrillas have reportedly abducted 40 civilians, six of whom were subsequently rescued by government troops. SWAPO appears to be turning to urban terrorism earlier than usual. Since the beginning of this year, four SWAPO bombings in towns in northern Namibia have killed seven civilians and injured 20. Targets have included a crowded post office, a store, and the same gas station where two American diplomats died last year. 25X1 25X1 We expect more SWAPO infiltration during the rest of this month and in February, but the total effort will probably be less than last year. We also believe that the trend toward more urban bombings is likely to continue, partly because Angolan and South African patrols are preventing the infiltration of the larger groups of insurgents needed to attack defended military targets, and partly because the recent SWAPO attacks have demonstrated an intent to inflict civilian casualties. 25X1 If there is a major infiltration, Pretoria probably will assume Luanda's complicity and might consequently resume offensive operations in Angola. Since the forces likely to be used-particularly the 61st and 32nd Battalions-have already left their garrisons, we would not necessarily have advance warning of sucl25X1 operations. F_~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Chronology of Terrorism-1984-85 Below are described noteworthy foreign and international terrorist events and counterterrorism developments that have occurred or come to light since our last issue. Events and developments that have already been described elesewhere in this publication are not included. n 1984 11 December Senegal: Air Afrique plane en route from Marseille to Dakar makes emergency landing when bomb discovered in lavatory. Other explosives were later located by police dogs. F1 22 December Germany: Clash between left- and right-wing Turks in Stuttgart injures two. An attempt by Turkish rightists to hold a meeting in a German-owned building was met with protests, demonstrations, and a fight with left-wing Turks leaving two people injured. The leftists were supported by a German Green councilman and other German nationals. Police fear retaliatory actions. 22-23 December Zaire: In Moni, rebels killed a village chief who refused to allow them use of his village for a base of operations.F__~ 24 December South Africa: Largest weapons cache discovery in South African history made following arrests of members of the African National Congress (ANC) on December 14. South African security officials believe these weapons and those found in another cache earlier in the year were intended for use in an ANC rural terrorism campaign. 24-26 December Sudan: UNDP-supported institute in Yambio hit twice in three days by dissidents. Although there were no casualties, the library and radio equipment in the building were damaged and other equipment was stolen. 25 December Namibia: Two people killed and three wounded when SWAPO terrorists opened fire on a crowd gathered in Changwena. Later that day, 40 civilians were abducted from Oshigambo by SWAPO; government claims six young girls rescued by security forces.) 23 Secret GI TR 85-002 24 January 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Western Sahara: Polisario attacked a South Korean trawler, resulting in some casualties and damage to the ship. The captain of the trawler, who reportedly had no license for fishing those waters, was arrested by the Moroccans upon his return to shore for endangering his crew. 31 December El Salvador: The leftist Clara Elizabeth Ramirez Metropolitan Front (CERF) simultaneously occupied six radio stations in San Salvador. The CERF broadcast 30-minute recordings from the stations, denouncing the dialogue with the Duarte administration and American involvement in El Salvador.= 1985 1 January Israel: Two bombs were defused in Jerusalem. No group claimed responsibility for placing the devices.) Early January Philippines: Unidentified gunmen killed two mayors and ambushed a governor and his family in three separate incidents. On 2 January the mayor of Zaragosa and three other persons were shot to death at the city hall. The same day, a car carrying the governor of Abra Province was ambushed; the governor, his wife, a daughter, and two others were wounded, while his three-year-old son was killed. On 5 January, the mayor of Santa Ana was killed while attending Mass. Guerrillas of the Communist New People's Army are suspected in at least two of the attacks. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Chile: Five members of the leftist Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (FPMR) seized a bus in Santiago and burned it. Subsequently, the same group threw a grenade into a plaza in Santiago, slightly injuring one or two youths. Tunisia: A bomb went off in the parking lot of the Ministry of Interior causing no casualties and little damage. The unclaimed incident occurred on the anniversary of bread riots in 1984.1 Guadeloupe: Four bombs exploded in Pointe-a-Pitre, leaving one injured. The bombings occurred the day before the trial of the leader of the terrorist Revolutionary Caribbean Alliance (ARC) began. A previously unknown group calling itself Justice Nouvelle (New Justice)-possibly a pseudonym for the ARC-claimed responsibility on 10 January.[ Iraq: Baghdad bombers intended other attacks. The Syrian- and Iranian-backed Iraqis who confessed to the 12 December bombing of a duty-free office in downtown Baghdad planted other bombs at a bridge and the airport, but all failed to explode. Iraqi TV claimed the terrorists tried to blow up an Eygptian airlines office as well.n Lebanon: A small bomb exploded in the building housing the offices of Agence France Press in West Beirut, causing material damage but no injuries. No group claimed responsibility, but, according to press reports, police sources speculate that the bomb was placed by the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA). The group claimed responsibility for similar attacks on 28 December against Air France offices and Fransbank in West Beirut.) 4 January Dominican Republic: Director of a money-exchange bank and his chauffeur were kidnaped across from the National Police Palace and later killed. The two badly tortured bodies were found on 7 January near an Air Force base. Police have no suspects. F__1 Spain: GRAPO members bomb Madrid shop, wounding one. After threatening the owners of the shop for refusing to pay a revolutionary tax, the terrorists robbed the shop prior to the bombing= Guadeloupe: Bomb explodes in Gosier, destroying a motorcycle parked near a police station. In a letter, the Justice Nouvelle group claimed responsibility, threatened action against two French officials, and promised more bombings.F Namibia: SWAPO probably responsible for two explosions at an Oshakati service station. Extensive damage reported but no casualties. This was the site of a 1984 SWAPO attack that killed two American diplomats. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 5-6 January Sri Lanka: Securityforces kill Catholic priest. Government troops on a counterterrorism operation fired into a Catholic church outside the town of Mannar and apparently killed the parish priest, an ethnic Tamil. Reports conflict as to whether the troops were in pursuit of a Tamil guerrilla force, whether any arms were recovered, or whether up to eight other persons were killed. The government has denied any knowledge of the priest's whereabouts, while Tamil liberation groups have begun to exploit the incident for its propaganda value. 7 January Lebanon: Kidnaped Swiss Charge was released unharmed. Amal spokesmen claimed one of their security teams rescued the Charge and said he was being held by relatives of Husayn al-Atat, who was arrested in Zurich on 18 November. Atat's arrest led to the arrest in Ladispoli, Italy, of seven other Lebanese who were apparently planning to attack the US Embassy in Rome= 7-11 January India: Sri Lankan patrol boat seized after firing on fishing vessels. On 7 January two Indian fishermen died when their boat was attacked by a Sri Lankan patrol craft engaged in counterinfiltration operations. Sri Lanka charged that the boat was within its security zone, but the fishermen claimed to have been in Indian waters. After a second patrol boat was reported firing at Indian boats within Indian waters, the Indian coast guard apprehended the craft and impounded it at the southern port of Mandapam.F-] 8 January Namibia: Two shoppers killed and seven injured when SWAPO bombed a crowded dry goods store in Ondangwa. This store has been hit twice before by SWAPO. 8-9 January Sri Lanka: Government claims success against Tamil group. Security forces reportedly overran a camp of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the Jaffna area and killed 14 terrorists-including a local LTTE leader-captured 44 others, and seized a large quantity of arms and ammunition. The LTTE is believed responsible for most of the killings of Sri Lankan soldiers and policemen in 1984 and is thought to have 10 other bases within the country.= Colombia: Four people were injured by a bomb placed at the Meyer Institute, an American-owned language school in Bogota. Police speculate that the blast might be connected to the recent extradition of four alleged Colombian drug traffickers to the United States. Nicaragua: US nun kidnaped by Contras. Maryknoll Sister Nancy Donovan was held for several hours by members of the Nicaraguan Democratic Force and then released unharmed when her captors realized she was American. = Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret 9 January Lebanon: Four people were killed and 15 others wounded when a 33-pound bomb exploded outside the Christian-owned Smuggler's Inn restaurant in West Beirut. No group claimed responsibility. F-] Italy: A former member of an Italian counterterrorist unit was assassinated near Rome by two gunmen. Although the attack was claimed by the Red Brigades in a subsequent phone call, the authorities believe the claim may be false.F___-] 10 January Jordan: A bomb was discovered in front of a US AID employee's home in Amman. The device, consisting of 15 blocks of TNT, did not have either a power source or timing device, so it was not actually armed. Police sources told US Embassy officials that on 9 January similar devices were discovered at the Iraqi and Kuwaiti Embassies. This information, however, has not been confirmed.) Chile: A car bomb seriously damaged the Sheraton Hotel in Santiago but inflicted no casualties. No group has taken credit for the bombing.) 10-14 January Portugal: FP-25 violence continues. On 10 January a bomb explosion at the home of a textile industrialist near Barcelos was claimed by FP-25, but an explosion on this date near Estremos that killed a 14-year-old boy was unclaimed. Two days later several shops were damaged by an explosion near Lisbon that an FP-25 member claimed was directed toward the chief of the local paramilitary unit of the Republican National Guard. On 14 January two cars were damaged by minor explosions in Lisbon and FP-25 is suspected. 11 January Colombia: Explosion caused extensive property damage to an administrative office in central Bogota belonging to the Ministry of Labor. The Ricardo Franco Front has claimed responsibility for the attack. F-] 12-14 January France/Guadeloupe: The Caribbean Revolutionary Alliance (ARC) exploded three small firebombs in Guadeloupe. One destroyed a small yacht at anchor off Gosier, and the others burned three private vehicles. Pointe-a-Pitre gendarmes, in a search conducted the next day, seized an arms cache containing AK-47 assault weapons, Molotov cocktail ingredients, and some handguns. ? 14 January Spain: Theater showing US film bombed. Members of Iraultza, the small radical Spanish Basque Communist movement, claimed credit for bombing a movie theater that was screening the US' film "Red Dawn." The explosion caused slight damage, but no injuries.) South Africa: Three suspected terrorists and one policeman killed during a police raid on an isolated hut in northern Natal. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 14-15 January France: Iparretarrak loses an appeal-and bombs the prosecution. The Appeals Court at Pau on 15 January upheld the convictions of five members of Iparretarrak, the French Basque terrorist group. In anticipation of the court's decision, Iparretarrak the night before exploded a car bomb outside the home of the chief prosecutor of Bayonne, destroying his automobile. 0 Zimbabwe: District chairman of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union party was near Nyaki bayonetted and shot to death. Although no claims were made, the government blames dissidents.) 16 January India: Gunmen wound Sikh high priest. Three youths, believed to be Sikhs, firing from a motorcycle, shot and wounded one of the five high priests of the Sikh religion in Punjab state. The priest is a moderate Sikh leader and may have been attacked to sabotage government reconciliation moves. = Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9 Secret Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85-01095R000100220002-9