NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 10 DECEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010147-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2010
• Sequence Number: 147
• Publication Date: December 10, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010147-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010147-9
0 Top Secret
China-USSR: Deng's Comments on Bilateral Talks . . . . . . 1
Poland: Suspending Martial Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Western Europe: Antinuclear Protests . . . . . . . . . . . 3
South Africa - Mozambique - Lesotho: Pretoria Attacks . . 4
Angola: Political Moves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Suriname: Regime's Opponents Executed . . . . . . . . . . 6
USSR-UN: Cooperation With the West . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Japan: Opposition to Defense Spending . . . . . . . . . . 7
Denmark: INF Payments Blocked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S
East Germany: Resistance to Military Service . . . . . . . 8
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 //Deng Xiaoping said yesterday that China will continue to talk 25X1
and expand contacts with the USSR and indicated Soviet movement on
at least one _a China's three demands would improve relations.//
//The Chinese leader's remarks were made to two former
senior US officials. He emphasized that China saw Sino-
Soviet relations from a strategic perspective, that
Moscow will have to deal eventually with Beijing's
demands, and that changes in Soviet policies in conten-
tious areas would be generally beneficial. Deng implied
China expected a "slight withdrawal" of Soviet forces
from the border and mentioned Mongolia as a priority
area for an initial reduction.// 25X1
//In addition, Deng suggested that China--like the
US--could maintain various ties with the Soviets despite
political differences and that increased Chinese contacts
and trade could include the purchase of Soviet technology.//
Comment: //Deng's remarks represent the most author-
itative exposition of China's position for an American
audience. They were intended to signal that Beijing
is serious about easing tensions with the USSR in a
step-by-step bargaining process and that China expects
increased trade and visits regardless of progress on
the basic issues. Deng's emphasis on China's strategic
perspective also reflects his implicit criticism of
Washington for--in the Chinese view--giving the Taiwan
issue priority over the "strategically" important Sino-
//Many in the Foreign Ministry apparently believe
China will gain politically and economically from normal-
Top Secret
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 A senior Polish diplomat in Moscow has told the US Embassy
that Poland's parliament on Monday will "suspend" martial law--
effective on 23 December--and that the regime hopes to Zift it com-
pletely by next JuZy.
Several diplomatic sources indicate Warsaw has sent
a similar message to all its embassies. The diplomat
said Poland will be looking for the US to respond by
taking some conciliatory action.
Other Polish representatives abroad have told US
officials there will be no general amnesty, but most
internees will be freed. In addition, some activists
jailed for martial law violations will be given clemency.
Comment: The regime's decision to wait 10 days
after the announcement before suspending martial law
may reflect concern about possible demonstrations on
16 December--the day Solidarity has called for peaceful
commemoration of workers and miners killed in past clashes
with police. Premier Jaruzelski presumably hopes the
announcement will encourage Polish citizens to avoid
protests.
The regime probably has ruled out total amnesty at
this time because of security concerns and because it
does not want to appear to be responding directly to
pressure from the West. Jaruzelski's pragmatic attitude
may have been reinforced by Soviet opposition to the
 campaign of protests that will emphasize civil disobedience.//
Common, where an INF base is to be located. British
peace leaders have polled members of the Campaign for
Nuclear Disarmament to determine who is willing to be
arrested. In West Germany, there are reports protesters
may sit on the roads to as many as 10 NATO bases.//
Comment: //The leaders of major peace groups have
studied the US protest campaigns during the 1960s and hope
civil disobedience will prevent the installation of INF
equipment scheduled to begin arriving in 1983. Such
decentralized activity, however, is less attractive to
many potential demonstrators than action in the major
cities. The fact that protests are directed specifically
against NATO bases and the possibility of disorder may
persuade some of the less radical demonstrators to stay
//Small demonstrations in West Germany are more vulner-
able to Communist influence over the themes of the pro-
tests. In both West Germany and the UK, moreover, these
activities probably will attract fringe elements that
may destroy property or provoke clashes with the police.
Security forces in both countries will need substantial
//Some leaders in the British Labor Party and perhaps
in the Liberal Party, noting a recent opinion survey
showing a majority against INF, may support the protests.
Efforts by the West German movement to lure leftwing
Social Democrats into this kind of protest, however,
could be less successful than in earlier mass rallies.
Both governments hope the public will become disenchanted
with the peace movement if it emphasizes clearly illegal
 //South Africa's attacks this week on facilities in Mozambique
and Lesotho are the most recent manifestations of its tougher policy
toward its neighbors.//
//A major fire that began on Tuesday in the Mozam-
bican port of Beira has caused extensive damage to the
country's main oil depot. The blaze will disrupt the
flow of oil through a pipeline from the port to Mutare,
ensuring Zimbabwe's dependence on South Africa for oil
supplies.//
//South African commandos, during a raid yesterday
in Lesotho, killed some 30 guerrillas of the African
National Congress, the principal South African insurgent
group. Pretoria says the operation--the first such attack
into Lesotho--was aimed at preempting insurgent attacks
planned for the holiday season. It follows Foreign Min-
ister Botha's public statement last week that Pretoria
would not tolerate the harboring of terrorists by its
neighbors. Lesotho has asked for a UN Security Council
meeting.//
Comment: //Mozambican insurgents backed by South
Africa probably will claim credit for the fire in Beira.
The South Africans, however, almost certainly are respon-
sible for the operation.//
//The attack in Beira will heighten the sense of
panic that has been growing in Maputo since last month
in the aftermath of a series of shooting incidents
between Mozambican and South African troops along the
Top Secret
 //The ruling party has taken some steps to increase President
dos Santos's power to deal with Angola's domestic and regional
problems, but he stiZZ does not seem to be in a position to push
decisively for a settlement on Namibia.//
The party's Central Committee this week voted unani-
mously to grant dos Santos special powers to deal with
the "grave situation" facing the country, but the nature
of the powers was not specified. The action was announced
shortly after dos Santos had sent a cabinet-level delega-
tion to Cape Verde for talks with South African officials
The Central Committee also removed a prominent pro-
Soviet hardliner from the Politburo and from his position
as party secretary for ideology. Two other officials,
one of whom is said to be among Angola's top economists,
Comment: //The granting of special powers and the
personnel shifts may give dos Santos more leeway to show
some flexibility toward South Africa and to deal with
the economy. In recent months he has appointed several
of his supporters to key positions.//
//Dos Santos, however, probably will not be able
to use his new powers any time soon to make major con-
cessions on Namibia and the related question of a Cuban
troop withdrawal from Angola. Cuban- and Soviet-backed
hardliners in the party leadership almost certainly can
still veto a large-scale withdrawal of Cuban forces.
The hardliners' continuing influence was reflected in
another Central Committee announcement reaffirming
Angola's rejection of any linkage between the Namibian
//The hardliners may have permitted dos Santos's
representatives at the Cape Verde talks to offer some
concessions, perhaps including a mutual pullback of
forces or even a limited Cuban withdrawal. South Africa,
however, probably remained adamant that all Cubans have
 SURINAME: Regime's Opponents Executed
//Army Commander Bouterse's forces have executed 24 of the
regime opponents arrested on Wednesday, including labor leader
DaaZ and the head of the Bar Association.//
The state radio reported yesterday that the arrests
had been made to forestall a coup attempt and that those
killed were shot while trying to escape. The entire
Comment: Bouterse's brutal actions have silenced
the nation's most widely respected and moderate propo-
nents of change. Surinamers will be shocked and angered
by the killings, but their normal passivity and growing
fear of the regime's ruthlessness may restrain sponta-
neous, large-scale protests. If a moderate from the
military establishment or some other strong personality
If Bouterse perceives no strong opposition, he is
likely to take further measures to consolidate his con-
trol. Nevertheless, the killings could jeopardize fur-
ther disbursements of the $1.5-billion aid package from
the Netherlands, Suriname's former colonial ruler. If
he loses this aid, Bourterse would be likely to turn to
 The USSR is cooperating with the US and other Western
states at the UN to block a resolution favored by Non-
aligned states to encourage the transfer of peaceful
nuclear technology and material. The resolution, sched-
uled for debate and possible vote this week, urges the
Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy planned
for next summer to focus on facilitating transfers to
Third World nations. It also would move the preparatory
meeting for the conference from Vienna to New York. The
Soviet delegation told the Dutch Ambassador to the UN
that he could associate the USSR with the Western posi-
tion on all major points in negotiations with the Group
Comment: //The USSR, the US, and nearly all Western
states oppose the resolution because it would encourage
Third World demands for technology transfers and for new
institutions that would weaken the current safeguards
system of the IAEA. Holding the preparatory meeting in
New York would enable more Nonaligned states to partici-
pate and to put pressure on developed states to make
concessions. A solid Nonaligned vote could pass the
resolution, but many Nonaligned states believe passage
would result in postponement of the conference or its
JAPAN: Opposition to Defense Spending
There is broad opposition to any increase in the
defense budget for next year, according to a recent
public opinion poll in a major Japanese newspaper. A
vast majority of those polled believe the current defense
Comment: The poll demonstrates there is limited
public agreement with Prime Minister Nakasone's view that
Japan should improve its Self-Defense Forces. This will
make it difficult for him to increase the defense budget
by the proposed maximum of 7.34 percent, let alone exceed
it as the US has requested. Budget officials already are
looking for ways to cut spending next year as Tokyo tries
 The parliament's decision on Tuesday to accept a
compromise resolution that will halt INF funding has
averted a government crisis. The compromise, sponsored
by the opposition Social Democrats, will postpone indefi-
nitely any further infrastructure payments after Denmark
meets 25 percent of its obligations for 1983. A US
Embassy source reports the Conservative government plans
to seek authority from the Finance Committee of parlia-
ment some time next year to appropriate more INF funds.
parties were concerned that, if they did not postpone
further payments, Denmark would appear to be putting
pressure on Belgium and the Netherlands. Denmark's
share of INF funding is small, and it is unclear how
its funds can be withheld from Copenhagen's overall
NATO contribution. The Danish decision is unlikely to
delis missile deployment schedule.//
The East German peace movement is encouraging
resistance to military service.
recently told US Embassy officials
that 70 young men are refusing reserve duty on pacifist
grounds, as compared with 42 in September. F_p
Western media report that several hundred East
German women wrote to party leader Honecker in October
protesting the possible drafting of women.
Comment: The regime's immediate concern about the
peace movement has been that it might encourage resist-
ance to the draft. The pool of draft-eligible youth
will continue to decline markedly for at least the next
decade, and the services already are finding it difficult
to compete with civilian employers to attract and retain
personnel. Although the number of resisters willing to
risk imprisonment is small, publicity could encourage
others to take the risk or to join the hundreds of re-
cruits reportedly seeking noncombatant status.
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 Top
The National Assembly's vote on rescinding the recent
devaluation--an action that would set back Sudan's
prospects for obtaining a standby loan from the IMF--
has been postponed until next week. Moreover, the govern-
ment has begun a media campaign presenting the prospective
agreement with the IMF in a positive light. Meanwhile,
Khartoum is quiet again after three days of student demon-
strations earlier this week in which one person was killed.
Comment: The media campaign is a strong signal
that President Nimeiri will endorse devaluation. The
legislature almost certainly will follow his lead on the
issue. The government probably will try to use the
student protests and the opposition to devaluation ex-
pressed in the Assembly debates to urge the Fund to
soften its terms. It also may look to the US to inter-
Toro Secret
 Top
//The center-right government under Prime Minister
Martens is threatened by divisions in the cabinet over
the future of the financially troubled Cockerill-Sambre
steel company. The cabinet has to decide today whether
to cover company losses for another year, turn the firm
over to the Walloon regional government, or let it fail.
Cabinet ministers from Flanders, strongly backed by the
Flemish public, oppose any further subsidy. Walloon's
representatives insist that funds be found for the
Comment: //Martens is unlikely to allow the company
to fail. He is determined to remain in office and prob-
ably will find a way to provide the necessary funds,
even if that provokes some resignations from the cabinet.
The opposition Socialists are not anxious to take on the
country's problems, and, if the government falls over this
Top Secret
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010147-9