NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 13 NOVEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010060-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2010
• Sequence Number: 60
• Publication Date: November 13, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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^ Director of +ap ct
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
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13 Navem er
1 Copy 4 0 2
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The Cable version of the National Intelligence Daily
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 USSR: Apparent Policy Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Western Europe - Latin America: Socialists' Position . . 3
Israel-Lebanon: Explosion in Tyre . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
West Germany: Arrest of Terrorist Leaders . . . . . . . . 8
Saudi Arabia: Oil Production at a 10-Year Low . . . . . . 9
Iran: Increase in Oil Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Chad: Dissident Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Pakistan: Opposition Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Cuba: Status of Debt Rescheduling . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Costa Rica - USSR: New Soviet Ambassador . . . . . . . . 11
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 The dissimilarities yesterday in General Secretary Andropov's
remarks and Party Secretary Chernenko's speech to the plenum sug-
gest a Zack of consensus in the leadership on some important policy
issues.
Andropov took a tough line when he talked about
prospects for an improvement in relations with the US.
He made no reference to detente or disarmament. He
also stated "imperalists will never meet our pleas for
peace," stressing that the USSR's security could be
guaranteed only by military might.
Chernenko emphasized that defense capabilities
depend ultimately on the country's economic growth, and
implicitly called for constraints on military spending.
His reference to detente and disarmament were positive.
Before Brezhnev's death, Chernenko had urged re-
straint in dealing with the US. He had noted that
Moscow was prepared to wait until Washington was ready
to negotiate and had expressed confidence that "common
Comment: Andropov's elevation clearly has not
ended his political competition with Chernenko. The
latter would not have taken a different line if he did
not believe that his policies have some support within
the elite. Debate over policy will be closely inter-
twined with maneuvering for political advantage and
could bring about further shifts in the leadership
lineup.
The leadership probably is now reviewing its eco-
nomic, military, and foreign priorities in preparation
for the Supreme Soviet's ratification of the annual
plan and budget in 10 days. In coming months the
Politburo will make further decisions about the dis-
tribution of power in the new leadership, and the new
appointments may provide clues about the direction of
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 Many nations have still not announced who will
lead their delegations to Brezhnev's funeral. Among
those that have, however, there are few surprises.
The West Europeans generally have designated their
Foreign Ministers. A few, including, Greece, Canada,
France, and Belgium, are leaning toward representation
by Prime Ministers. Sweden and Finland will have the
highest level representation--the Prime Minister and
Japan's delegation will be headed by Prime Minister
Suzuki. Prime Minister Gandhi will represent India.
China, which has played Brezhnev's death in low-key
terms, announced today that its representative would be
Among the developing countries, the head of dele-
gation
USSR.
varies with the closeness of relations with the
Ethiopia, Nicaragua, and Vietnam are among those
already
mmitted to sending top-level officials.
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 Top
//Activist groups dominated the discussions of Latin American
affairs by the Socialist International last week, resulting in more
//The executive committee drafted a resolution con-
demning the arrest of opposition figures in El Salvador
and emphasizing its unconditional support for the National
Revolutionary Movement, a member of the International.
The committee demands the US stop military aid to the gov-
ernment of El Salvador and again states that a political
settlement between the government and the opposition is
the only feasible way to peace.//
//The resolution welcomes the Nicaraguan regime's
consideration of new laws allowing elections and more
political freedom, while condemning alleged plans for
military aggression against Nicaragua. The committee
accepts the Sandinistas' invitation to send a factfind-
ing mission to Nicaragua. It also comdemns attempts to
isolate the government of Grenada and supports the Puerto
Rican Independence Party.//
Comment: //The Sandinistas and other Latin American
parties critical of US policy dominated the session on
Latin America. The arrests in El Salvador and media alle-
gations of US military support for Nicaraguan opposition
groups presumably influenced the debate. Most member
parties, moreover, appear encouraged by the Sandinistas'
//The draft is a setback for the small group of West
European parties that have been working for a tougher
attitude by the International toward the Sandinistas and
a lower profile on El Salvador. Central America will
continue to be a subject of heated discussion within the
International, however, and the committee's draft resolu-
debated at the organization's congress in April.//
//Most of the influential West European delegates
at the meeting focused primarily on the Middle East. No
decisions were made, however, because of a stalemate
between pro-Palestinian parties and the Israeli Labor
 Opinion polls in Japan are giving Yasuhiro Nakasone the lead
in the race to succeed Prime Minister Suzuki as president of the
Liberal Democratic Party and, thereby, as prime minister.
//A poll of party members conducted early this month
showed 50 percent supporting Nakasone, with Toshio Komoto
a distant second. A survey of local party officials also
found Nakasone to have a substantial lead,
The primary ballots will be counted on 24 November,
and on the following day the party members in the Diet
are scheduled to select a new party president from among
the top three votegetters. Government leaders now plan
to convene the Diet on 26 November to elect a new prime
minister. A new cabinet is to be named by 29 November.
Comment: Nakasone is benefiting from the active
and well-organized campaigning of the three major factions
supporting him. Moreover, the poll results could have
It is still not clear whether the factions opposing
Nakasone will close ranks behind him if he wins the
presidential election. A substantial victory in the
primary, however, would put added pressure on them to
do so. F_ I
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 //Authorities in Tel Aviv report the explosion at the
Israeli Army headquarters in Tyre on Thursday resulted
in at least 47 Israeli deaths. The Israeli Cabinet yes-
terday appointed a commission of inquiry to report within
a week on the facts surrounding the incident, the cause
of which is still unknown. Two obscure Palestinian groups
have claimed responsibility for the explosion.//
rity in southern Lebanon and may augment their forces
there. Retaliation is likely if the commission deter-
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 Top Secret
The arrest in Frankfurt on Thursday of two impor-
tant leaders of the Red Army Faction, Brigitte Monhaupt
and Adelheid Schulz, may disrupt any immediate terrorist
plans but will not necessarily reduce the threat posed
by this group in the near future. Under Monhaupt's
direction, the Red Army Faction conducted some of its
most spectacular attacks, including the bombing at
Ramstein Air Base and the attempted murder of US Army
Commander in Chief for Europe General Kroesen.
Comment: The arrests will reduce, at least tempo-
rarily, the ability of the Red Army Faction to carry out
kidnapings and other sophisticated operations against
US or West German targets. They also may result, how-
ever, in a rash of low-level attacks on US installations
and property in West Germany by supporters of the Red
Army Faction. Several small terrorist groups have been
responsible for at least 36 attacks on US property in
 Top
//Saudi Arabia produced just over 5.5 million barrels
per day in October, continuing the downward trend of the
first three quarters of the year. First-quarter production
was 7.9 million barrels per day. Libya, Iran, and
Nigeria found markets for their increased production b
violating OPEC's $34-per-barrel benchmark price.// 25X1
Comment:
A price war
over the next few months is still unlikely, however,
because all oil producers realize that such a development
would reduce revenues of all exporters. This could
change if international demand for oil remains sluggish
in 1983 and the discounters refuse to get in line. The
OPEC ministerial meeting next month will provide an
opportunity to reach some compromise on the dispute.//
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tion rose to 3 million barrels per day during the four-
week period ending on 23 October. Exports averaged
2.5 million barrels per day. This is the highest rate
since 1979. Tehran's current oil sales are yielding
Comment: Export earnings are currently adequate
to allow Iran to continue to finance the war and ease
somewhat the import restrictions imposed last year.
Iran probably is also building up foreign exchange reserves
at a rate of $500 million a month. Oil revenues in 1982
will reach about $18 billion, as compared with
$11.5 billion last year and $21.2 billion during 1978,
Top Secret
 Top
//Former President Goukouni recently announced the
formation of a rival government based in Bardai in
northern Chad, according to the Libyan press. Local
traders say several Libyan planes unloaded Chadian
personnel, supplies, and vehicles at the town. F
Comment: Goukouni's move to form a rival government
on Chadian soil is little more than a Libyan-backed
propaganda effort. The Libyans may hope to seat Goukouni
at the OAU summit tentatively scheduled to convene in
Tripoli later this month, although Libyan leader Qadhafi
probably would not push the issue if he believed it
would jeopardize the summit. Qadhafi may prevent Goukouni
from launching small-scale guerrilla operations until
after the summit. Chadian President Habre during his
many years as a guerrilla leader frequently staged pre-
emptive strikes against factional rivals and he may
decide to move first.
PAKISTAN: Opposition Activity
Opposition politicians in Karachi have joined with
lawyers to challenge President Zia's ban on political
activity by bar associations. The courts last week
sentenced the two top officers of the Karachi Bar Asso-
ciation for permitting a prominent People's Party leader
to criticize the regime before the association. The
lawyers and politicians have pledged to continue their
campaign of opposition in order to embarrass Zia before
his visit to the US next month. The head of the Karachi
chapter of the Islamic party that tacitly supports Zia
believes lawyers in Punjab will join the agitation if it
continues much longer.
Comment: Zia has publicly accused the politicians
of acting irresponsibly. He may adopt stronger measures
if the agitation spreads to Punjab Province, the country's
most important area. To remove one increasingly conten-
tious issue, the regime has decided to allow People's
Party Chairman Nusrat Bhutto to travel abroad to seek
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 Top
The US Embassy in Paris reports that Cuba pressed
hard for special consideration from its creditors during
the preliminary rescheduling meeting recently held in
Havana. President Castro personally met with members of
the group and described Havana's "unique" problems.
The Cubans agreed to creditor demands for more detailed
economic data. Although the Cubans were not ready to
discuss an economic recovery program, they agreed to
prepare a plan before the next creditor nation meeting
late this month in Paris.
Comment: Cuba's attempts to extract special treat-
ment are unlikely to sway the financial representatives
handling the negotiations. Castro probably will continue
these efforts, however, by appealing to the leaders of
Spain, France, and other countries that he believes are
more sympathetic to Cuba.
The Costa Rican Government reportedly has accepted
a new Soviet Ambassador-designate after delaying action
for six months. Costa Rican officials indicate, however,
that they have no intention of filling their ambassadorial
post in Moscow, which has been vacant since late last
year. According to press reports, the Foreign Ministry
has announced that 17 of 25 Soviet personnel accredited
to San Jose have to leave immediately.
Comment: Since taking office in May, President
Monge has been concerned over the size of the USSR's
mission. He views it as a base from which Moscow tries
to foment instability in Costa Rica and to influence
less stable countries in Central America. The reduction
order is one that Moscow probably anticipated in light
of Monge's increasingly tough anti-Communist stance.
Top Secret
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