NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 3 NOVEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010027-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: November 3, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Seat et
CPAS NIDC 82-257C
3 November 1982
Copy A A "]
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Top Secret
Costa Rica - US: President Monge's Visit . . . . . . . . . 1
Jamaica-Colombia: Opposition to Narcotics Control .
OAU: Summit Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
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COSTA RICA - US: President Monge's Visit
Costa Rican President Monge, who arrives in Washington today
for a working visit, probably will use his keynote address at the
Conference on Free Elections to continue his efforts both to promote
democracy in Central America and to isolate Nicaragua.
The conference will be attended by over 100 private
participants from around the world. The Costa Rican
delegation, which includes Foreign Minister Volio, also
will meet with senior US officials. Volio is the archi-
tect of San Jose's strong anti-Sandinista policies.
Comment: Monge and Volio are concerned over viola-
tions of Costa Rica's borders by Nicaraguan armed forces
and Sandinista links with the local extreme left. Since
his inauguration, Monge has led the effort in Central
America to promote a broad alliance of democratic states
against Nicaraguan adventurism.
The conference will enable Monge to reinforce the
proposals made last month in San Jose at the Foreign
Ministers' meeting, which included a regional peace
initiative and plans for an electoral organization to.
assist democracies in the area. Monge also may try to
arrange a followup meeting of regional leaders to coin-
cide with President Reagan's scheduled visit to San Jose
in December.
Monge is likely to use his meetings with US officials
to lobby for additional aid and investment. He is par-
ticularly concerned that Costa Rica's economic problems,
including triple-digit inflation and one of the world's
highest foreign debts in relation to GNP, will cause
leftist-inspired labor agitation. Although he supports
the Caribbean Basin Initiative, he has criticize
$70 million slated for San Jose as too little.
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JAMAICA-COLOMBIA: Opposition to Narcotics Control
//Domestic opposition will limit the extent to which Jamaica
and Colombia--major sources of drugs for the US market--wiZZ coop-
erate with US antinarcotics efforts.//
//Growers of marijuana in Jamaica have delayed
eradication efforts there by threatening reprisals
against sugar-cane fields. Prime Minister Seaga recently
told US officials he will not sign a public narcotics
control agreement with the US because of the high politi-
cal cost to his government.//
In Colombia, the US Embassy reports any crop eradica-
tion program will run into strong public opposition.
President Betancur supports existing US-Colombian nar-
cotics programs, but is delaying action on crop eradica-
tion because of domestic opposition and a belief the US
can do more to control narcotics demand. Colombia sup-
plies about 75 percent of the marijuana and methaqualone
market in the US as well as increasing amounts of cocaine.
Comment: //This is not the first time Seaga has
expressed reservations about crop eradication. The re-
action of marijuana growers to this initial eradication
effort is likely to increase his fears of losing rural
votes, which in turn will increase his reluctance to
cooperate. Jamaica probably will continue to serve as
a source of supply for about 10 percent of the marijuana
going to the US.//
//Betancur's government has been preoccupied with
more urgent domestic matters. Nonetheless, he probably
will continue to cooperate in the areas of crop substi-
tution, manual eradication, and interdiction.//
//Crop spraying with herbicides is the only way to
make a rapid dent in the flow of marijuana. Bogota is
unlikely to agree to herbicidal eradication, however,
because of domestic opposition and Betancur's desire
not to appear to be yielding to US pressure.//
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IRAN-IRAQ: Renewed Offensive 25X1
//Iran's expected attack against Iraqi forces occupy-
ing a narrow strip of Iranian territory along the Doveyrich
River west of Dezful began on Monday.
Iranian infantry and armored forces occupied
a salient a few kilometers west of the river but were under
fire by two Iraqi armored battalions occupying high ground.
Another Iraqi armored unit is moving to block a possible
Iranian advance from Eyn Gerzan farther north.
Comment: //Tehran is denying Iraqi claims that
Iranian forces intend to cross the border in this sector
and is insisting they seek only to liberate occupied ter-
ritory. The two conflicting versions of the offensive's
goals will permit both sides to claim victory. Iraqi
forces in the area, which include at least two reinforced
divisions, have an overwhelming advantage in armor and
artillery over the five Iranian brigades opposing them.
Any Iranian advance will be costly but Tehran probably
is prepared to continue operations along this front for
at least several more days.//
OAU: Summit Plans
The public announcement over the weekend by the
Polisario Front that it will not attend a proposed OAU
summit later this month in Tripoli clears the way for
Libyan leader Qadhafi's accession to the chairmanship.
This timing will give Qadhafi an
opportunity to address the current session of the UN
General Assembly as OAU chairman.
Comment: A majority of states that boycotted the
aborted summit last August probably will attend the new
meeting as long as the Polisario Front is not present.
The Polisario Front's absence, however, will not end dis-
cussion of the Western Saharan issue or patch the split
between OAU radicals and moderates.
a number of summit participants will
push to have an internationally sponsored referendum in
Western Sahara in a few months.
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//The recent decision of the state-owned Petro Canada
Company to buy the marketing and refining facilities of
British Petroleum in Canada indicates Ottawa is continu-
ing to "Canadianize" its oil and gas industry. The
acquisition, at a cost of US $279 million, will increase
the government's share of the domestic gasoline market
from 6 to 12 percent, making it the fourth-largest dis-
tributor in Canada.//
Comment: //The purchase indicates that the govern-
ment of Prime Minister Trudeau remains committed to its
National Economic Program despite the recent government
overtures to US businessmen and hints of change in Canada's
policy toward foreign investment. With Canada in a deep
recession and the budget deficit at US $18.4 billion, the
action almost certainly will lead to criticism by Con-
servatives of the borrowing that will be necessary to
buy British Petroleum.//
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