NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 18 OCTOBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000500010156-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2008
• Sequence Number: 156
• Publication Date: October 18, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of F171 ~,~ Central
Top Secret
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
DIA review
completed.
State Dept. review completed
Imo r Y87
Top Secret
CPAS NIDC 82-243C
Copy 402
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El Salvador: Guerrilla Offensive Continues . . . . . . . . 1
Spain: Socialist Prospects in Catalonia . . . . . . . . . 4
Lebanon: Lull in Fighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
China: Defecting Pilot Lands in South Korea . . . . . . . 5
China-USSR: Talks To Continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
USSR-Angola: Delivery of Soviet Patrol Boats . . . . . . . 7
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Top Secret
GuerriZZas stiZZ occupy some towns in the north and are staging
harassing attacks in various parts of the country, but their offen-
sive appears to have peaked.
Attacks against economic targets continue, especially
in Usulutan Department. Small government outposts and 25X1
public utilities in and around the capital have also been
the intensity o guerrilla operations has passed its 25X1
peak. With the exception of some airstrikes and sporadic
clashes near guerrilla-held towns in northern Chalatenango
and Morazan Departments, military forces have avoided
hasty counterattacks. In contrast to past practice, 25X1
military leaders are taking more time to plan their tac-
tical response and have focused greater attention on
securing key bridges and installations.//
another has been damaged by enemy fire.//
//As of Saturday, the military was claiming to have
killed 153 guerrillas and to have suffered 122 casualties,
according to the press. The US defense attache reports
that as many as 16 of the Air Force's 20 UH-1H helicopters
are not operational, mostly because of maintenance prob-
lems. One helicopter was destroyed in an accident, and
Comment: Guerrilla forces are likely to keep up 25X1
offensive activities in various parts of the country, at
least for the next several days. Salvadoran estimates
appear correct, however, that enemy operations are level-
serious threat to the armed forces.
ing off. The guerrilla efforts do not constitute a
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SPAIN: Socialist Prospects in Catalonia
//A strong electoral showing by the Socialists in Catalonia may
heighten political tensions at both the national and regional levels.//
//Polls in the region and report:, from the US Consul
in Barcelona indicate the Socialists have pulled even
with the conservative forces in Catalonia. The repu-
tation of the conservative government in Barcelona has
been hurt by financial scandals, and the loss of splinter
groups from the Catalan Union of the Democratic Center
has reduced the administration's majority in the Catalan
parliament. Socialists and dissident centrist deputies
refused to join a recent Communist-backed vote of no
confidence in the regional legislature, but they have
promised to reevaluate their position after the national
elections.//
Comment: //The Socialist surge in Catalonia probably
indicates the party will do well throughout Spain. It
has faced obstacles in the region that do not confront
it elsewhere, particularly its inadequate organization
and the damage entailed in its support for pending
national legislation that could curb Catalan autonomy.//
//Most schemes for a center-right government in Madrid
after the elections are based on a poor Socialist perform-
ance in Catalonia and other regions. A win in Catalonia
could give the Socialists a majority in the national
parliament. This might tempt the party to rethink its
intention to rule with a centrist partner in a coalition
and to rule alone, which would give party leftists a 25X1
greater voice in Madrid.//
A first-place showing by the Socialists in Catalonia
also could enable them to replace the shaky conservative
regional government with a center-left administration
and improve short-term relations between Madrid and
Barcelona. This would be seen by many Catalans as a
blow against their hopes for greater regional autonomy,
however, and would probably make it more difficult for
the Socialists at the national level to grapple with
this sensitive issue.
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LEBANON: Lull in Fighting
Lebanon is generally quiet as President Jumayyil
begins his visit to the US. Factional fighting in the
Shuf region has subsided, and Jumayyil reportedly com-
pleted arrangements yesterday for the Lebanese Army to
move into the area.
Comment: No major incidents have been reported
elsewhere in Lebanon since Friday, when a car bombing
killed an Israeli soldier and a Lebanese civilian and
Saturday when a clash occurred between Israeli and Syrian
units in eastern Lebanon. 25X1
CHINA: Defecting Pilot Lands in South Korea
The Chinese Air Force pilot who flew his MIG-19
fighter to South Korea on Saturday says he wants ulti-
mately to go on to Taiwan. The aircraft's short range
precluded a direct flight to Taiwan.
The last time a Chinese Air Force officer de-
fected was in July 1977, when another reconnaissance 25X1
pilot landed his MIG-19 on Taiwan.
Comment: The defection places South Korea, which 25X1
would like to improve relations with China, in an un-
comfortable position. The South Koreans are unlikely
to return the defector, but they almost certainly will
seek a quick resolution of the matter--perhaps by arrang-25X1
ing the defector's transfer to Taiwan. Seoul could re-
turn the aircraft, an older model, probably of little
intelligence value, as a conciliatory gesture.
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Chinese press reports say party leader Hu Yaobang
told a group of French reporters yesterday China and the
USSR have agreed to continue their discussions alter-
nately in Beijing and Moscow. Hu declined to disclose
the contents of the talks but expressed China's hope
that obstacles to normalizing relations will be removed.
He refrained from criticism of the Soviets beyond his
response to a question concerning differences in Chinese
attitudes toward Soviet and US hegemonisn., in which he
said China opposes any hegemonism in the world.
Comment: Hu's remarks, the first public Chinese
comments on the talks, indicate that the dialogue will
go on for some time. His failure to differentiate between
Soviet and US hegemonism follows the public line taken
by Premier Zhao last month during British Prime Minister
Thatcher's visit.
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USSR-ANGOLA: Delivery of Soviet Patrol Boats
//The USSR this week is likely to provide Angola
with its first two Osa-class missile attack patrol boats.
Earlier this year the Styx antiship missiles that can
be fired from the Osa arrived in Angola. The Soviets
also have provided coastal surveillance radars and
several smaller patrol boats.//
Comment: The Soviets are helping Angola to strengthen
its ability to defend against raids on port facilities.
Late last year a seaborne commando raid damaged a major
petroleum refinery at Luanda.
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INTERNATIONAL: Disarmament Discussions at the UN
Competition between East and West for Third World
support on disarmament issues will dominate the eight-
week session of the First Committee of the UN General
Assembly that opens today. The Soviets will submit
proposals for a moratorium on nuclear testing and demili-
tarization of outer space, which reportedly will appeal
to most Third World and some Western states,
fication provisions of the Biological Weapons Convention.
ering resolutions to continue a UN role in the investi-
gation of the use of chemical weapons by the Soviets and
their allies in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia, while
Sweden will call for a conference to strengthen the veri-
East-West tensions.
Comment: //Many nonaligned states have been dis-
satisfied with recent multilateral discussions and will
support Moscow's proposals, although they are not new.
US initiatives, including one calling for a Conference
on Military Expenditures, have received little support,
because many nations fear the proposals will increase
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