NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 7 SEPTEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000500010019-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 2, 2008
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: September 7, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIA review
completed.
Director of
Central
Intelligence
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1-Z (n
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
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CPAS NIDC 82-209C
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Israel-Lebanon-Syria: TeZ Aviv Threatens Reprisals . . . . 1
Spain: Socialists' Views on Defense Matters . . . . . . . 2
USSR - Middle East: Pravda on US Initiative . . . . . . . 4
Israel: Meeting of Knesset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Panama: Guard Commander's Retirement Postponed . . . . . 5 25X1
Chile: Signs of Friction in Government . . . . . . . . . . 5 ,
Yugoslavia: Criticism of the Party . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Sweden: Tougher Stand on submarine Intrusions .
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ISRAEL-LEBANON-SYRIA: Tel Aviv Threatens Reprisals
The kidnaping Saturday of eight Israeli soldiers near Bhamdun
by leftist Lebanese militias operating from behind Syrian lines has
prompted Tel Aviv to threaten Damascus with reprisals.
The situation is further inflamed by press reports
that Khalil al-Wazir, PLO chief Arafat's top deputy and
suspected mastermind of the 1972 Munich massacre, visited
Tripoli yesterday to inspect Palestinian guerrilla forces
Israel has warned Syria repeatedly to stop the
activities of Palestinian and leftist militiamen in areas
under its control or face retaliation. Additionally,
Tel Aviv has demanded the withdrawal of all Syrian soldiers
and Palestinian guerrillas from Lebanon as part of an
Israel has reduced its troop strength in Lebanon,
but demobilized units remain on alert and can be sent
back to Lebanon within 24 hours. Tel Aviv has sufficient
forces on hand along the Beirut-Damascus highway to con-
duct a limited offensive against Syrian forces in the
Israeli Defense Minister Sharon also suggested
yesterday that, if Lebanon does not sign a peace treaty
with Israel, southern Lebanon will have a "different
status." He said Israel would "secure a 40- to 50-
kilometer security strip to keep it clear of artillery
pieces and the threat of terrorist activity."
Comment: There are no indications that Israel is
planning any immediate military action.
Tel Aviv is pressing Bashir Jumayyil to sign a
peace treaty before the end of the year, but there is
some disagreement within the government over how hard to
press. Israel probably will continue to hedge its bets
by supporting the Christian militias in the south.
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SPAIN: Socialists' Views on Defense Matters
//Socialist Party press statements suggest that if the party
forms the next government it may revise some aspects of membership
in NATO and reopen negotiations on the bilateral defense agreement
with the US.//
//The party enjoys a wide lead in the polls, and its
leader, Felipe Gonzalez, has stated again that if it wins
the election on 28 October it will hold a referendum on
NATO membership. According to polls taken a year ago,
such a referendum could result in a vote against NATO
participation.//
//In addition, Socialist Party international affairs
secretary Elena Flores noted in a press interview early
this month that the party would seek revision of the bi-
lateral accord with the US insofar as it concerns Spain
and NATO. The agreement, signed on 2 July, has yet to be
ratified by parliament.//
Comment: //Although Socialist leaders in the past
have privately indicated that, if elected, they would
find some way to back away from a referendum on NATO,
they make it more difficult to do so with each repetition
of their public position. Even if no referendum is held,
the Socialists could refuse to join the NATO integrated
military system.//
//Nonetheless, the Socialists will be wary of any
step they believe might provoke the military. It still
appears to be suspicious of the intentions of any Social-
ist government as well as somewhat ambivalent on NATO
membership.//
//The Socialists have traditionally supported main-
taining the bilateral relationship with the US and are
unlikely to scuttle the agreement. Merely reopening the
negotiations, however, would lead to considerable delay
in ratification.//
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST : Pravda on US Initiative
An unsigned editorial in Pravda yesterday claimed
that the dispute between Washington and Tel Aviv over
President Reagan's initiative on the Middle East is being
"deliberately staged" to distract world attention from
the US-Israeli "collusion" in Lebanon. The article con-
demned Washington's haste in proposing a plan designed
to make political capital from Lebanon's tragedy. Pravda
called the initiative nothing more than a return to the
Camp David Accords, ridiculed its rejection of an inde-
pendent Palestinian state, and contended that a "larger
part" of the Arab world has reacted with indignation.
Comment: Moscow appears to have timed the editorial,
its most' authoritative reaction to date, to the Arab
Summit in Morocco. The editorial has a defensive tone
that indicates Moscow is concerned that the Arab leaders
may not reject the US initiative outright. Only passing
mention was given to the USSR's own views on an Arab-
Israeli settlement, suggesting that Moscow is still for-
mulating a more definitive response.
ISRAEL: Meeting of the Knesset
The Knesset is scheduled to meet this week in special
session to discuss the new US initiative.
Comment: Prime Minister Begin's ruling Likud bloc
and the Labor opposition will use the debate to score
political points and justify their stands on the US plan.
Likud will seek to'put Labor on the defensive by high-
lighting the government's view that Labor cooperated
with the US in drawing up a plan that threatens Israel's
security. Labor--which last week welcomed the plan with
some reservations--will cite the US initiative as proof
of the party's contention that territorial compromise is
F_ I
necessary for a lasting peace.
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PANAMA: Guard Commander's Retirement Postponed
//The National Guard General Staff has arranged to de-
lay General Paredes's retirement until filing deadlines and
other dates for the presidential re estab-
lished After
Paredes steps own to aunc is candidacy, Chief of Staff
Contreras will command the Guard until the end of the cam-
paign, when he will be succeeded by Deputy Chief of Staff
Noriega.//
Comment: //Despite his promise last winter to retire
this month at the customary 25-year mark, Paredes has been
reluctant to abandon his power base in the Guard to Noriega
and other potential rivals. Since the removal of President
Royo in July, Paredes has been trying to box in ambitious
senior officers who might challenge his authority. The
arrangement gives Paredes security over the next few months,
and it retains the nonpartisan Contreras as a buffer during
the potentially rough campaign period. Noriega presumably
also is pleased with the plan, which assures him command of
the Guard under stable circumstances and for at least sev-
eral years.//
CHILE: Signs of Friction in Government
//President P.inochet's decision last week to combine
the Ministries of Finance and Economy and appoint a re-
spected businessman and free market economist to head the
new post indicates there has been no major departure from
Pinochet created the new ministry to end the constant
present policies.
bickering between the Economy and Finance Ministers that
he believed impeded the formulation of a coherent economic
policy. The President reportedly also is at odds with the
Navy and Air Force members of the junta, who are angry
because they were not consulted about recent important
economic measures taken to combat the recession. The US
defense attache reports Pinochet is considering the forced
retirement of the Navy chief and several of his top
aides.//
Comment: //Although Pinochet does not appear con-
cerned about his disagreements with the Navy and Air Force,
he may be apprehensive about the impact of such disharmony
on the Army, his real base of support. He may view changing
the junta, the Navy, and the cabinet as a way to regain
political momentum and restore public confidence in his
authority.//
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YUGOSLAVIA: Criticism of the Party
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An unusually bold editorial in a regional newsweekly
last month challenged the national party's right to a
monopoly of power. It argued the party is divided and
its leaders "not responsible enough" and urged immediate
reform to restore public faith.
Comment: Party leaders are ill prepared both to
face a major political challenge and to overcome their
differences over remedies to the country's economic
problems. The weakness of the party leadership is evi-
dent in its failure to respond to or punish the news-
weekly's editors. Discontent with the party leadership
has been building since Tito's death in May 1980, but
steadily increasing public awareness of Yugoslavia's
financial difficulties is beginning to lead to demands
for scapegoats.
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SWEDEN: Tougher Stand on Submarine Intrusions
Stockholm's exasperation over what it views as
Moscow's deliberate disregard of repeated warnings
against submarine intrusions in Swedish waters apparently
has led parliament's foreign affairs advisory council to
authorize an immediate toughening of Sweden's rules of
engagement. The new regulations, which initially were
intended to go into effect next July, will allow the
Navy to use full weight depth charges to force an in-
truder to the surface and be taken to a special anchorage.
the Navy is likely to apply
what appears to be an increased willingness by intruders
to remain in Swedish waters after detection. They are
Navy from taking any action beyond dropping warning
charges. Defense officials have become frustrated by
the tougher guidelines if it locates an unidentified
submarine being hunted in waters south of Stockholm.
Comment: Current regulations have prevented the
determined to respond forcefully.
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