NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 16 JUNE 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010142-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2008
• Sequence Number: 142
• Publication Date: June 16, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
25X1
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
16 June 1982
State Dept. review completed
25X1
Top Secret
CPAS NIDC 82-140C
10 June IYarZ
Copy 4 0 2
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USSR: Gromyko's UN Speech . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
USSR - Western Europe: Reaction to Summits . . . . . . . . 8
Chad: Fragile Prospects for Peace . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 25X1
Western Europe: Currency Realignment . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Seychelles: Trial of Mercenaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Chile: Peso Devalued . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
China: Decline in Grain Harvest . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
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USSR: Gromyko's UN Speech
In a hard-hitting address yesterday attacking all aspects of
US policy, Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko tried to seize the
initiative on arms control issues and blame the US for the Zack of
progress.
Gromyko began by reading a message from President
Brezhnev announcing a unilateral pledge not to be the
first country to use nuclear weapons. Gromyko stated
that the US START proposal is "lop sided," but that the
idea of a mutual freeze on nuclear arsenals advanced by
many world figures is close to the Soviet viewpoint.
The Foreign Minister said Moscow is submitting to
the UN Special Session a draft agreement on the prohibi-
tion of chemical weapons that would include suggestions
on verification measures. Gromyko stated that wants to
resume negotiations on a comprehensive test ban, on limi-
tations of naval activities, and on conventional arms
transfers.
Comment: The Foreign Minister's address was delib-
erately crafted for its emotional appeal to arms control
advocates in the West. It attempted to show that the
USSR was at the forefront in each of the important arms
control areas, with US policy the main reason for stale-
mate. The pledge on no first use--a further refinement
of a long standing Soviet proposal--probably was high-
lighted in the Brezhnev message for its simple, emotional
impact.
Gromyko's statements on START and the INF talks broke 25X1
little new ground. His reference to a Soviet draft agree-
ment on chemical weapons was unexpected and the emphasis
on monitoring was aimed at answering Western critics.
In addition to his obvious propaganda purpose,
Gromyko appeared to be trying to engage the US in a
broader dialogue by calling for resumption of such arms
control negotiations a comprehensive test ban and con-
ventional arms transfer, as well as for serious negotia-
tions on START and INF.
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//"Soviet commentary reflects some satisfaction at the continued
dissension in the West over economic issues, but it also betray
more concern over the growing consensus on security matters.//
//The Soviets praised the West European governments
and Japan at the summit in Versailles for refusing to
subscribe to the US "philosophy of confrontation" in the
economic sphere. TASS did acknowledge some US success
in "imposing" a provision that vaguely calls for limiting
export credits to the USSR and Eastern Europe, but other
Soviet commentary stresses the "sharp differences" between
the US and the others over the fundamental purposes of
East-West trade and the effect on West European economies
of high US interest rates.//
//Soviet media, in commenting on the meeting in Bonn,
focused on the demonstrations by peace activists throughout
President Reagan's West European trip and on US pressure
on NATO Allies. TASS reported that, despite their con-
ciliatory public statements, the Allies have confirmed
by their decisions that they intend to continue past
policies of armament and provocation.//
A Pravda editorial by "A. Petrov,' 25X1 I
attac e 25X1
the President's speech to the Bundestag as a deceitful
attempt to disrupt the "postwar realities" of Europe.
On Monday Pravda described the President's address to the
British Parliament as an "open challenge to nuclear war." 25X1
Comment: The commentary betrays more uneasiness than
satisfaction with the results of the two summits. The
Soviets seem to believe that it has become more difficult
to deny the US the propaganda advantage in Western Europe
on security issues.
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USSR - EASTERN EUROPE: Annual Talks Allegedly Canceled
Romanian, Yugoslav and Hungarian diplomats in Moscow have told
the US Embassy during the past week that President Brezhnev's tra-
ditional meetings with East European party chiefs in the Crimea
will not be held this summer because of his precarious health.
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CHAD: Fragile Prospects for Peace
//Head of state Habre is taking firm steps to ease factional
strife, curb Libyan meddling, and promote some semblance of national
unity.//
//Chad?s new leader has moved quickly to try to rec-
oncile his differences with other faction heads--
especially southern strongman Kamougue, who last week
put down a rebellion by some of his forces opposed to
making peace with Habre.
The Zairian Government has agreed to a request by
Habre for its contingent to the OAU peacekeeping force
to remain in N?Djamena beyond the deadline of 30 June set
by the OAU for troop withdrawals. French officials in
Paris indicate that the Senegalese also plan to extend
their stay. Habre believes the continued presence of a
neutral force will facilitate negotiations among Chad?s
feuding factions and discourage major Libyan meddling any
time soon.
Comment: Habre?s efforts--and Kamougue's reassertion
of authority--bode well for a lessening of tensions be-
tween north and south. If Habre can gain broad support
among southerners, he should be able to form a coalition
government capable of limiting for a while the worst
excesses of civil war. At the same time, Chad's deep-
seated ethnic and regional animosities and economic pry
lems will make longer term stability tenuous at best.
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WESTERN EUROPE: Currency Realignment
After weeks of increasing pressure on the French
franc, the EC finance ministers on Sunday devalued the
franc by 5.75 percent while revaluing the West German
mark and Dutch guilder upward by 4.25 percent against
the European Currency Unit. The Italian lira was
devalued by 2.75 percent to maintain Italian price
competitiveness with French goods. The realignment was
accompanied by a new French austerity program designed
to cut the 14-percent inflation rate to 10 percent by
reducing the budget and Social Security deficits, freez-
ing wages and most prices, and cutting money supply
growth.
Comment: Pressures for the realignment were largely
the result of the divergent economic policies of the
participating countries. While President Mitterrand
was stimulating the economy, which tended to increase
inflation, most other EC countries were reducing it. If
financial markets are not convinced that the new French
program will work, the franc will weaken again and threaten
the stability of the European Monetary System.
Top Secret
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lation of US involvement in the coup attempt.
The trial of the seven South African mercenaries
captured following the coup attempt last November is
scheduled to begin today.. It will produce press specu-
Comment: Rene probably will prefer to avoid im-
plicating the US and to keep the trial focused on alleged
South African involvement. The President does not want
to jeopardize US aid and the lucrative satellite tracking
station agreement with Washington. Following the con-
viction of the mercenaries, Rene is likely to try to
arrange for their return to South Africa, possibly in
return for financial compensation for damage incurred
during the attempted coup.
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implemented to shore up the economy.
Santiago announced an 18-percent peso devaluation
yesterday, the first exchange rate change since July 1979.
The government plans to devalue the peso further at a
9-percent annual rate to improve export competitiveness.
The devaluation is part of a series of measures recently
and monetary policy.
Comment: The move probably will help reduce the
trade deficit by stemming the rise in imports, although
the impact on exports will be blunted by depressed world
demand for Chilean products. Domestic manufacturers also
will recoup some sales lost to foreign competition, and
some new overseas investment projects could become more
attractive. The inflationary pressures accompanying the
exchange rate change should be contained by tight fiscal
China has announced a decline in the summer grain
harvest from the level of 60 million tons in 1981, which
will necessitate continued wheat imports. The harvest
consists mainly of winter wheat and makes up nearly
20 percent of the total grain crop. Dry weather and a
slight reduction in sown area were responsible for the
drop
total grain purchases.
US shipments of wheat and corn this year are likely
to total roughly 8 million tons, 60 percent of China?s
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 Top Secret
Top Secret
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