NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 13 MAY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010043-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: May 13, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
25X1
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
State Dept. review
completed
Top Secret
25X1
Copy T4
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Top Secret
Contents
UK-Argentina: Some Diplomatic Progress . . . . . . . . . . 1
Western Europe Reaction to President's Speech . . 5 25X6
Poland: Dispute Over Academic Freedom . . . . . . . . . . 6
The Netherlands: Government Falls . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Western Europe - Turkey: Human Rights Issue . . . . . . . 8
25X6
Egypt: Crackdown on Islamic Extremists . . . . . . . . . 9
Saudi Arabia: Concern About Possible Shia Unrest . . . . . 10
South Korea: Financial Scandal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Special Analysis
NATO - Warsaw Pact: Prospects Bleak for MBFR Talks . . . . 11
25X1
Top Secret
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UK-ARGENTINA: Some Diplomatic Progress
(Information as of 2300 EDT)
//On the diplomatic front, the two sides narrowed their dif- 25X1
ferences at the UN, but there were signs that both parties were
approaching the limits of their negotiating lexibiZit . S oradic
miZitar activity continued
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Military Activity
The British Ministry of Defense reported that two
Argentine A-4 Skyhawk jets were shot down yesterday
while attacking a British ship. A British Sea King heli-
copter was ditched in the sea in another operation.
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Domestic Developments in. Argentina
a future US accommodation with Buenos Aires.
associated with current peace efforts at a time when
the UK is taking the military offensive. Argentina's
Ambassador to the US told OAS Ambassador Middendorf on
Tuesday that the US should resume a neutral position
before final negotiations in the UN to pave the way for
Some influential Argentines have made clear to the
Embassy their concern that bilateral relations could
be irreparably damaged if the US does not become visibly
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Top Secret
Comment: Although angry at the US position, Argen-
tine leaders have thus far been careful to avoid arousing
anti-US passions.
Top Secret
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WESTERN EUROPE Reactions to President's Speech
//Most NATO Allies believe President 25X6
Reagan's START proposals signal a reopening of serious arms reduc-
tion talks with the USSR.//
//West Europeans generally have welcomed the pro-
posals, which they primarily attribute to Allied and
domestic US calls to reopen a dialogue with the Soviets.
West German officials praised the opening of the START
talks and called on Moscow to respond positively. In
London, Defense Ministry officials have indicated their
support.//
been numerous calls for a positive Soviet response.//
//Many press commentators noted what they believed
to be an abandonment of linking negotiations with Moscow
to cooperative Soviet international behavior. There was
some media speculation that CSCE and the Conference on
European Disarmament also would resume in the wake of
the initiative and that the beginning of START would
have a positive effect on INF and MBFR negotiations.
Moscow is now seen to be on the defensive, and there have
//Critics of the speech argued that, by emphasizing
cuts in land-based ICBMs and by not mentioning bombers
or cruise missiles, the President was asking the Soviets
to make the biggest concessions. They doubted whether
an agreement was possible under such conditions.// F_
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The faculty senate earlier this week rejected govern-
ment attempts to control the appointment of key university
administrators. The senate has refused to cooperate with
the rector, who recently was appointed by the government,
or to abide by any Ministry of Education directives that
he tries to carry out. This rejection follows similar
to a showdown with the regime.
POLAND: Dispute Over Academic Freedom
Warsaw University's efforts to defend its autonomy may Zead
action by the faculty at the main university in Gdansk.
if the senate refuses to be more cooperative.
Faculty members are trying to defend university
autonomy until a new higher education bill recently
passed by parliament and scheduled to be implemented in
September gives universities more authority to run their
own affairs. The government nonetheless has threatened
several times to close all or part of Warsaw University
Comment: The regime probably hoped that the new
education law would foster cooperation. The school's
faculty, however, apparently doubts that the bill will
be implemented and is trying to avoid compromises that
it may later regret. The faculty's actions could, there-
fore, prompt the regime to make good on its threats to
close the school or to fire recalcitrant faculty members.
principle of academic freedom.
Faculty firings probably would cause student pro-
tests in Warsaw and perhaps elsewhere. Closing the
university might galvanize much of the country's academic
community into a confrontation with the regime over the
F_ I
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new elections.//
//The fall of the government yesterday probably will force
tian Democratic and Democrat 1966 partners.//
//The collapse of Prime Minister van Agt's three-
party coalition was precipitated by the resignation of
Ministers of the Labor Party, who left the cabinet to
protest additional budget cuts proposed by their Chris-
continue supporting economic austerity programs.//
Comment: //Labor withdrawal from the eight-month-
old government has been likely for some time. The party
differed with its governing partners on a number of issues
and suffered divisions in its own ranks over whether to
for support from the opposition Liberals on key issues.
He is more likely, however, to call for new elections.//
//Van Agt apparently can carry on a minority govern-
ment 25X1
with his Christian Democrats and the D'66, hoping
25X1
//Recent provincial elections and opinion surveys
have indicated a continued loss of support for the Labor
Party and gains for the Christian Democrats, D'66, and
especially the Liberals. If elections take place, van Agt
would hope to regain a center-right parliamentary major-
ity with the Liberals, and perhaps overcome D'66 reluc-
tance to join this combination.//
//A government without the Labor Party--the most
vocal foes of INF--would give a psychological lift to
supporters of deployment but would not bring about a deci-
sion any time soon. Even a Christian Democratic - Liberal
majority large enough to override Christian Democratic
dissidents would be unlikely to address the, issue pending
//In any new center-right government, the D'66 posi-
tion on INF will probably be decisive in winning eventual
parliamentary approval. A majority of the D'66 rank and
file oppose deployment.//
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WESTERN EUROPE - TURKEY: Human Rights Issue
//Legal experts representing the Netherlands, Denmark, France,
Sweden, and Norway probably will move tomorrow to bring formal human
rights charges against Turke before the European Human Rights
Commission.//
//Relations between Turkey and many West European
states have eroded further in recent months following
Ankara's acknowledgment of prisoner deaths after torture,
the rearrest in April of former Prime Minister Ecevit,
and the trial of labor union leaders.//
could forestall a negative finding.//
Comment: //Ankara's patience with West European
investigation of human rights violations is wearing thin,
especially because prospects for a large-scale OECD aid
package this year are bleak. Nevertheless, the govern-
ment is likely to agree to participate in human rights
hearings rather than force a complete break with the
Council.// 25X1
//A ruling by the Human Rights Commission against
Turkey probably would lead to a decision to expel it
from the Council. Turkey would almost certainly with-
draw to preempt such a move. The Commission delibera-
tions, however, would be likely to last at least a year,
by which time Turkish progress toward restoring democracy 25X1
a complaint before the Human Rights Commission.//
refused, Norway--which had been particularly reluctant
to press a case against a NATO ally--agreed to support
//Ministers of the Council then tried late last
month to convince Turkey to accept a binding declaration
regarding the restoration of democracy. After the Turks 25X1
Turkish progress on democracy and human rights.//
Ankara rejected a French-Norwegian-Swedish plan to es-
tablish committees in the Council of Europe to monitor
//The apparent decision to proceed with charges
follows unsuccessful West European efforts to satisfy
domestic political criticism of Turkey while avoiding
direct confrontation with the government. In March, 25X1
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EGYPT: Crackdown on Islamic Extremists
Egyptian authorities recently have taken additional
steps to suppress the extremist Muslim organizations
implicated in President Sadat's assassination. Indict-
ments have been brought against 302 fundamentalists
accused of fomenting unrest last year, and the government 25X1
is asking for the death penalty in 299 of the cases.
C
ourt proceedings, however, are moving slowly.
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Top Secret
SAUDI ARABIA: Concern About Possible Shia Unrest
King Khalid, Prince Abdullah, the Second Deputy
Premier and Commander of the National Guard, and Defense
Minister Sultan visited Eastern Province from 27 April
to 3 May. The King stopped in Al Qatif, the scene of
violent demonstrations by members of the Shia Muslim
minority in 1979 and 1980, where he met with local Shia
leaders and accepted petitions for increased government
assistance. Khalid's trip comes only four months after
a similar visit by Crown Prince Fahd.
Comment: The timing of the visit probably reflects
official concern that recent Iranian military gains may
stimulate new outbursts by Shias, who long have been
embittered by government neglect. The lack of major
unrest in Al Qatif since 1980 is due more to increased
government security than to the modest expansion of aid
from Riyadh. Although the King's visit will strengthen
the government's image in Al Qatif temporarily, lasting
gains will depend on the actual provision of government
assistance.
SOUTH KOREA: Financial Scandal
//A major financial scandal involving a relative of
President Chun's wife and a former high-level security
official has paralyzed the country's informal credit
market, has caused serious financial problems in at least
six major firms, and has resulted thus far in the dismissal
of the presidents of two major banks. Chun, amid hints
by the media that the ruling party may be involved, has
promised a thorough investigation. Preliminary findings
have not implicated other officials or relatives of the
President.//
Comment: //The financial disruption is likely to
aggravate the cash-flow problems of many already strug-
gling businesses and could raise doubts about South
Korea's international creditworthiness. Moreover, Chun
has placed heavy emphasis on reducing corruption, and
the scandal could damage his credibility, particularly
among his backers in the military.//
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NATO - WARSAW PACT: Prospects Bleak for MBFR Talks
//Another round of the MBFR talks opens today in Vienna. The
East is ZikeZy to restate previous positions and demand that the
West agree to limit discussion of the size of Warsaw Pact forces
and that it reduce its monitoring requirements in return for Eastern
assent to a recent NATO initiative to facilitate progress in the
talks. If the West offers a second initiative on force ceilings
and reductions, now being discussed by NATO, the East almost cer-
//The draft accord introduced by the East in mid-
February did not address such long deadlocked issues as
disagreement over the size of Warsaw Pact ground force
strength in Central Europe and the need for comprehensive
measures to monitor troop reductions and ceilings. The
Soviets know that NATO will continue to reject their
draft, but they find it useful to probe Western willing-
tainly would demand major changes in it.//
ness to make concessions on the data dispute and to
//The Soviets probably will reject the West's call
for the creation of working groups to evaluate the status
of the negotiations and to resolve the Warsaw Pact troop
data issue. The East has not responded to the Western
offer of last July to provide NATO estimates of certain
Soviet ground force elements in return for the Warsaw
Pact's own figures for these forces. A Soviet negotia-
restrict West German troop strength.//
tor claimed in March that Ustinov personally vetoed
exchanging this kind of information.//
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Western Initiative and Soviet Reaction
//NATO countries are discussing a new treaty proposal
that may be made public next month. It calls for:
--Agreement on troop data before signing a pact
that would set an overall ceiling for each
alliance and separate subceilings for US and
Soviet ground forces.
--Initial reductions of US ground units by 25X1
13,000 troops and of Soviet ground force divi-
sions by 30,000 troops.
--Comprehensive monitoring provisions.//
//Such a treaty probably would be no more acceptable
to Moscow than earlier proposals. The Soviets have in-
sisted that small US and Soviet troop reductions do not
require prior agreement on ground force strength. An
information exchange, Moscow contends, is possible after
trust is established by the initial withdrawals. More-
over, the East will insist upon specific commitments to
limit the West German contribution under a NATO troop
ceiling. //
Looking Ahead
//Significant concessions on either the data or the
monitoring issue are unlikely. There is no sign that
any top Soviet leader--especially at a time of presucces-
sion maneuvering--would be prepared to argue for divulg-
ing information on Soviet forces. Moreover, the situation
in Poland makes it more important to avoid monitoring
provisions that might constrain Soviet military options.//
//The Kremlin seems satisfied that the MBFR process
serves its political purposes and feels little pressure
to reach agreement soon. Only substantial Western con-
cessions would cause the Warsaw Pact states to trim their
advantage over NATO i Central Europe--now estimated to
be 210,000 troops.//
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