(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010207-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 207
• Publication Date: April 28, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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?""'"" Director of 1 up 7ec;ret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
28 April 1982
Top Secret
CPAS IV[
28 April 1982
COPY 402
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Top Secret
UK-Argentina: Diminishing Diplomatic Options . . . . . . . 1
El Salvador: Military Patience Wearing Thin . . . . . . . 5
West Germany: Impact of Social Democratic Congress . . . . 6
Hungary - West Germany: Kadar in Bonn . . . . . . . . . . 7
Special Analysis
UK-Argentina: Planning for Combat Operations . . . . . . . 8
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Top Secret
UK-ARGENTINA: Diminishing Diplomatic Options
//The Thatcher government continues to take a tough line while
the mood in Argentina is increasingly one of anxiety. Both sides
may be contemplating bold new military moves in -the el-t -1-7- 11,5
mediation effort fails to bridge differences.//
//Statements Monday and yesterday by Fleet Commander
Woodward and Prime Minister Thatcher emphasized British
readiness for further action. Although Thatcher reiter-
ated her willingness to negotiate, she emphasized that
time is running out and publicly rejected Labor and media
urging to rule out further military action while negotia-
tions are pending. She also asserted her confidence that
Washington would side with the UK if negotiations do not
resolve the crisis.//
//In Buenos Aires, the cabinet met twice in emer-
gency session yesterday, and the press quotes an Argen-
tine Embassy official in Washington as saying that the
latest US compromise proposals are "unacceptable." Ar-
gentine press commentary yesterday ranged from approval
to suspicion of the US mediation effort, and Secretary
of State Haig's remarks at the OAS received generally
chilly treatment.//
Comment: //Thatcher will continue to emphasize
the government's readiness for both fighting and nego-
tiations. This probably will keep the parliamentary
consensus intact, but it will be strained if there are
substantial casualties.//
//The flurry of activity in Buenos Aires indicates
growing junta concern about British military intentions
and a realization that negotiations are at a critical
stage. If President Galtieri has in fact rejected the
latest proposals, he may deflect domestic challenges in
the short term, but his fate will then largely depend on
the outcome of the probable military confrontation with
the British.//
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British Military Activity
Top Secret
//A small force of British Royal Marines could be
placed ashore in the Falklands within the next 48 to
72 hours,
been requisitioned.//
//The British Defense Ministry announced yesterday
that the assault ship Intrepid had left Plymouth to join
the task force and that two additional cargo ships had
Port Stanley.//
A small force could have been placed
asn~r~-~y sumari.ne in the past few days or may be in the
near future. It would be valuable in scouting out Argen-
tine defenses, particularly those near the airfield at
leased to about 40.//
//The Intrepid probably will be joining her sister
ship, the Fearless, now at Ascension Island. These
ships would be useful in an amphibious operation against
the Falklands because they can land sizable numbers of
men and amounts of heavy equipment. The addition of the
two civilian ships brings the total now requisitioned or
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Support for Argentina
//After a period of equivocation, Cuba?s Foreign
Ministry yesterday issued a declaration calling for a
halt to "all military, economic, and any other type of
hostility" against Argentina and condemning the retaking
of South Georgia as "aggression."//
Comment: //Cuba has chosen to follow a course that
should do the least damage to its image in Latin America.
Havana sees the dispute as an opportunity to weaken the
OAS and promote friction between Washington and London,
but the Cubans are wary of being tied too closely to an
administration in Buenos Aires that is ideologically un-
acceptable. The Castro regime probably is also concerned
about associating with a government that may not survive
if the British succeed in expelling the A tines from
the Falklands through force.// F 7
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EL SALVADOR: Military Patience Wearing Thin
//The military is Losing patience with constituent assembly
leader D Aubuisson s defiance of its orescript-l-'on of an
Provisional
//Defense Minister Garcia has informed US officials
that D'Aubuisson is attempting to buy or intimidate
assembly deputies, in order to block the election of
Alvaro Magana, and that similar tactics are being used
to divide the armed forces. Garcia believes, however,
that the rightist National Conciliation Party--which
holds the balance of power--will assure Magana's elec-
tion. Commander in Chief Gutierrez expressed concern
that the assembly will make the provisional presidency
a figurehead position.//
Comment: //Garcia apparently believes that the
oligarchs--reportedly returning from abroad in large
numbers--will use D'Aubuisson to reverse reforms, thus
endangering Western military and political support. He
also distrusts the National Conciliation Party, which
voted for D'Aubuisson as assembly president despite
strong military lobbying.//
//The swift election of Magana would reduce military
concern. Attempts to restrict his power, however, could
seriously try the armed forces' patience. D'Aubuisson's
alleged tampering with military unity will be even less
tolerated by the high command.//
//The government will have major problems administering
an effective amnesty program without considerable foreign
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WEST GERMANY: Impact of Social Democratic Congress
positions on security and nuclear energy issues.//
the Social Democratic Party's acquiescence to Chancellor Schmidt's
//The government coalition is unlikely to be strengthened by
will reappear soon.//
Comment: //Party leaders will try to portray the
votes at the party congress last week and some cabinet
changes this week as a new beginning for the coalition.
Congress delegates responded unenthusiastically to the
Chancellor's formulations, however, and the divisions
in the party as well as new public recriminations probably
will suffer as this becomes apparent.//
the resolution, and relations with his own party also
//Relations with the more conservative Free Democrats
were strained at least temporarily by the resolution of
the congress favoring an expanded jobs program financed
by a supplementary tax on higher incomes, reduced tax
breaks for business, and heavy taxation on windfall prof-
its. Schmidt probably has no intention of carrying out
government with the Christian Democrats.//
//The coalition will become somewhat more stable
again, because the worst predictions about the congress
were not fulfilled. The Free Democrats were not given
any justification to desert the coalition and form a new
action. //
//Nevertheless, the Schmidt coalition remains largely
immobilized. Important disagreements remain within and
between the two coalition parties in effect blocking
an unex ectedl large projected deficit.//
//The two parties will have to decide soon how to
finance an employment package, because the upper house
probably will veto the increase in the value-added tax
already proposed by the government. They are to begin
discussions in June on the budget for 1983 dealing with
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HUNGARY - WEST GERMANY: Kadar in Bonn
Hungarian party leader Kadar is in Bonn for the
first time since 1977 for talks with Chancellor Schmidt
and other West German leaders on Hungary's current prob-
lems and on East-West relations.
Comment: Kadar, who is deeply concerned over
Budapest's credit situation, is likely to stress that
progress on reforms will require enough Western credits
-
to allow Budapest to cover its debt service without
ther tightening its austerity
Schmidt regards Kadar as
a trusted interlocutor between East and West and prob-
ably will attach great importance to Kadar's appraisal
of the current situation in Poland follnwinrr hi-- mAAting
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UK-ARGENTINA: Planning for Combat Operations
//The possibility of a high risk, preemptive Argentine strike
against British forces has increased significantly over the past
few days. At the same time, the UK's anticipation of these trends
mau incline it toward unleashing a major naval action of its own.//
Argentina
needs a victory not only for military redress, but because
the details of the South Georgia defeat were kept from
the public and are now beginning to leak.//
//With internal criticism growing, President Galtieri
may also feel in greater need of a military initiative.
In addition, Navy Commander Anaya probably has been par-
ticularly stung by events on South Georgia because of the
loss of a submarine and the surrender of special naval
forces. Anaya is the most aggressive of the Argentine
leaders and has a sense of military honor that demands
retribution, even at great cost.//
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air superiority.//
//If Argentina believes--as it well may--that it faces
an imminent end to negotiations and a near-term British
assault on the Falklands, then it may view the next few
days as an opportune time to gamble and use its greatest
advantage--an air force which may be able to establish
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Top Secret
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