NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 5 APRIL 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010126-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 126
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
International: Nonaligned Criticism of the US
USSR: Announced INFReductions May Include SS-20s
Jamaica: Seaga's Prospects 8
Australia: Opposition Labor Party Wins Local Election
Special Analysis
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Top Secret
INTERNATIONAL: Nonaligned Criticism of the US
The 34-member Coordinating Bureau of the nonaligned movement
will discuss the Palestinian question at its ministerial conference
opening today in Kuwait and probably will issue ique con-
demning US policy in the Middle East.
The draft communique, prepared by Cuba and the PLO,
accuses the US of hostility toward the Palestinian
people and of making Israel a base for colonialism and
racism. It also denounces the introduction of "NATO
forces" into the Middle East--a reference to the multi-
national force stationed in the Sinai--and claims that
these forces are planning operations outside the Sinai.
In addition, it a k to increase its assistance
to the PLO.
The Coordinating Bureau's moderate members have
made virtually no contribution to the draft and are
disturbed by its bias. They want the movement to be
equally disassociated from the US and the USSR and are
considering trying to revise the draft at the con-
ference.
Comment: The moderates probably will not try hard.
Israel's recent actions in the West Bank and the impor-
tance of the Palestinian issue to radical members will
make it difficult to counsel moderation at the conference.
Moreover, the Cubans and other radicals dominate
the Coordinating Bureau and are determined to make
anti-Americanism an integral part of nonaligned philos-
ophy. Cuba will use its considerable power as chairman
to quash anv attempt to make major changes in the draft.
The moderates, however, probably will assert them-
selves more strongly after the conference. At the
summit in Baghdad in September, Iraq--which is less
pro-Soviet than Cuba--will assume the chairmanship and
the members will select a new Coordinating Bureau. The
moderates are organizing to exert greater influence in
the preparatory meetings that will set the stage for
the transfer of leadership.
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USSR: Announced INF Reductions May Include SS-20s
When President Brezhnev announced a freeze in de-
ployment of SS-20s in the European USSR last month, he
also said the USSR intends to reduce a "certain number"
of its medium-range missiles.
Comment: Brezhnev's failure to specify which medium
range SS-20 missiles he meant suggested that onl a in
SS-4s and SS-5s would be reduced.
of new US missiles in Europe.
(Moscow
may hope any announced intention to decrease the number
of SS-20s will enhance the campaign to block deployment
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AUSTRALIA: Opposition. Labor Party Wins Local Election
//Voting returns on Saturday show that the Labor
Party achieved a comfortable majority in elections for
the Victoria State Legislative Assembly. The Labor
victory ends the 27-year dominance of Prime Minister
Fraser's Liberal Party in his home state.//
Comment: //The defeat of the Liberal Party appar-
ently represents public reaction to Fraser's tight
monetary policies and the high unemployment rate. Fraser
may well face a challenge to his leadership of the party
from former Foreign Affairs Minister Peacock and has
called a meeting of Liberal Party senators and house
members for Thursday to reconfirm his leadership.//
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JAMAICA: Seaga's Prospects
//Nearly 18 months after the Labor Party's landslide victory,
Prime Minister Seaga's government has begun to turn around Jamaica's
economy and to reestablish public order. Much remains to be done,
hozvever, and Seaga will need continued large amounts of external
assistance to keep his programs moving.//
//Without sustained economic improvement, Seaga's
popularity will begin to erode. In any event, letdown
seems inevitable, because public expectations are high
and progress is certain to be slow and painful.//
//To rebuild the shattered economy, the government
has moved to dismantle state economic management and to
encourage market forces and private enterprise. Seaga's
efforts to restore business confidence and encourage new
investment, while impressive, have not been as success-
ful as initially anticipated.//
//The world recession has set back development plans.
In addition, the economy has been hit hard by the weak
demand for bauxite, Jamaica's primary source of foreign
exchange. Tourism, on the other hand, has rebounded and
is an economic bright spot./,/
//To keep on track, Seaga will need foreign aid to
bridge a $1 billion financial gap this year. Unpopular
measures to reduce the government deficit and more rapid
elimination of price and import controls are required to
ensure vital IMF financial support. Even with help from
the Caribbean Basin Initiative, Jamaica will not be able
to buy sufficient imports in 1982 to raise econo
activity much above the level of last year.//
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icies is taking a toll on his health.//
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/Disappointing economic growth and continuing high
unemployment are likely to erode public support over the
longer term. Managerial talent is extremely scarce, and
Seaga's personal involvement in implementing these pol-
ing impact throughout the region.//
//Seaga is closely identified with the US, and other
moderate leaders in the Caribbean will use his progress
to gauge what Washington could do to promote political
stability and economic well-being for their countries.
With Jamaica viewed as the showcase of the Caribbean
Basin Initiative, the island's failure to achieve politi-
cal stability and economic growth would have a demoraliz-
Political Challenges
difficulties and weaknesses.//
//Seaga's opponents, led by former Prime Minister
Manley, still have not recovered from their overwhelming
defeat at the polls. Nonetheless, radicals in control
of the opposition party will attempt to exploit Seaga's
leftist-inspired terrorism.//
//Political violence has declined since the election,
but the high crime rate will continue until the govern-
ment improves economic conditions. Jamaica's security
forces still lack the manpower to eliminate outbreaks of
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