NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 30 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010104-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2007
• Sequence Number: 104
• Publication Date: March 30, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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?t"~\ Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
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National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
30 March 1982
Top Secret
25X1
30 March 1982
Copy 2 5 .-
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1 El Salvador: Election Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
A Israel - Arab States:
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OEL SALVADOR: Election Returns
the 60-member constituent assembly.
Preliminary indications are that the Christian
Democrats have received approximately 41 percent of the
votes counted, with Roberto D'Aubuisson's ultraconserva-
tive National Republican Alliance getting about 29 per-
cent. If these percentages do not change, the Christian
Democrats could receive approximately 25 to 27 seats in
a majority in the constituent assembly. Fighting, meanwhile,
apparently still is heavy in the eastern part of the country.
The cogoverning Christian Democrats, on their way to winning
a large plurality of the 1-million-plus votes cast, apparently are
facing a rightist attempt to form a coalition that would deny them
The rightist National Conciliation Party and the
more moderate Democratic Action party--running third
and fourth, respectively--are crucial to any coalition
prospect. Unconfirmed media reports indicate that a
document has been signed by the rightist parties de-
y~,claring their intention to try to form a government of
national unity.
Comment: The reported document appears to compli-
cate the prospects for a government headed by the
Christian Democrats. Their apparent strong plurality,
nevertheless, still gives them a chance to pick up some
support from moderate rightists who would be hesitant
to join a government in which D'Aubuisson is prominent.
Although most members of the National Conciliation
Party are conservative and therefore are apt to be
sympathetic to D'Aubuisson, some moderates suspect him
of complicity in the murder of one of their leaders in
January and thus still may be receptive to Christian
Democratic overtures. In addition, Democratic Action--
which possibly could take up to five seats--previously
indicated a preference for working with the Christian
Democrats in a coalition government.
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Guatemala Honduras
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Despite the major psychological blow dealt the
insurgents by the massive voter turnout, a conservative
government dominated by D'Aubuisson ultimately could
benefit the insurgents if it abandons reform programs
and intensifies counterterrorist violence. Such actions
would result in negative world opinion and could lead
to international support for the rebels.
attempt to regain their credibility.
Comment: Government security measures, combined
with the insurgents' logistic and coordination prob-
lems, have significantly limited the planned guerrilla
offensive. The political setback caused by the large
voter turnout, however, could prompt the guerrillas to
initiate spectacular operations early next month in an
launching renewed attacks later this week.
to be massed just north of the city and capably
Military Situation
Fighting reportedly remains heavy in Morazan and
Usulutan Departments, where several hundred guerrillas
have laid siege to the cities of San Francisco and
Usulutan. Government troops appear to be defending both
locales effectively, but without reinforcements the out-
come is uncertain.
The guerrillas are waging only sporadic harassment
in and around the capital. Many, however, are thought
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&ISRAEL - ARAB STATES: New Demonstrations Planned
Arab demonstrations in support of Palestinians of the West
Bank rchedu led for today in Israel
Radical Arab groups in Israel have called on Israeli
Arabs to show solidarity with West Bank and Gaza Arabs by
staging a general strike on "Land Day" today. The date
is observed annually by Israeli Arabs in commemoration of
?i their demonstrations in 1976 against expropriations of
/ Arab-owned land in Israel in which several Israeli Arabs
3 died. The strike call follows several days of sporadic
demonstrations by Israeli Arabs protesting the treatment
of strikers in the West Bank and Gaza.
Comment: The protests probably will give more
momentum to the unrest in the West Bank and Gaza and
could lead to violence in Israel. Israeli authorities
3 are increasingly concerned about the growing ties between
West Bank and Israeli Arabs and are determined to deal
firmly with any disturbances.
Top Secret
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