NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 5 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2007
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: March 5, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

~Fz Director of l op secret
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
5 March 1982
COPY 252
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Contents
Y Hungary: Financial Position Getting Worse . . . . . . . . 5
// Southern Africa: Frontline Summit on Namibia . . . . . . 10
Special Analysis
2 Guatemala: Election Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
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HUNGARY: Financial Position Getting Worse
Increased borrowing difficulties threaten Budapest's ability
to meet its payments.
Hungarian officials repeatedly have tried to disas-
sociate Hungary from Poland's economic woes. They con-
tinue to hope that the US Government will reassure US
banks that lending to Hungary is sound.
Comment: The current unavailability of large
medium-term syndicated Eurocurrency loans, on which
Hungary has relied, makes Budapest highly vulnerable to
cutbacks in regular bank lending. Bankers have lost
confidence in doing business in all of Eastern Europe
as a result of the Polish and Romanian crises and the
uncertainty over the future of East-West relations, and
they are unlikely to resume lending funds to Budapest
soon except on a short-term basis. Hungary's borrow
difficulties make IMF membership even more urgent.
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@ SOUTHERN AFRICA: Frontline Summit on Namibia
Tanzanian President Nyerere has called a meeting
this weekend in Maputo of the leaders of the Frontline
States and the South-West Africa People's Organization
to discuss problems with the Western Contact Group's
proposals for electing delegates to the constitutional
assembly for an independent Namibia and to review events
in southern Africa.
Comment: The Frontline States are under consider-
able pressure to accept the Contact Group's proposals,
and Nyerere probably anticipates an acrimonious session.
/ He may attempt to persuade SWAPO to accept the proposals
by pointing to the prospects for regional instability if
the negotiations fail and possibly by guaranteeing Front-
line support on the more difficult issues still to be
negotiated. The Tanzanians apparently believe that the
Frontline States will agree to the Contact Group's pro-
posals if SWAPO can be brought on board. Although Zambia,
Botswana, and Mozambique are likely to support Nyerere,
SWAPO probably will continue to reject the Contact Group's
proposals.
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Guatemalan Officials
President Romeo Lucas
Major Guatemalan Presidential Candidates
AnbaI Guevara
Army Chief of Staff Benedicto Lucas
Alejandro Maldonado
Mario Sandoval
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GUATEMALA: Election Prospects
Ruling coalition candidate General Anibal Guevara appears
likely to be installed as President in July, whether or not he wins
a plurality in the elections on Sunday. Although the current ad-
ministration has pledged clean elections, the growing strength of
Guevara's two major opponents increases the possibility of vote
rigging and postelection violence. Such circumstances could prompt
the Army to intervene, either to ensure a plurality for Guevara or
to take direct command. Such a move could undermine the already
slim prospects for lessening Guatemala's international isolation
and for reducing domestic political animosities.
Guevara, a former Minister of Defense who is less
rigidly rightwing than President Lucas, appears to retain
the advantage despite having lost ground over the past
two months. He has enjoyed the use of government re-
sources during the campaign. One of his aggressive
opponents, however, may yet win.
Alejandro Maldonado, the candidate of a coalition
including the left-of-center Christian Democrats, has
chipped away Guevara's lead and is running ahead in some
public opinion surveys. Rightwing leader Mario Sandoval
also has put on a last-minute surge at Guevara's expense.
Sandoval has the best political organization and
will be able to get large numbers of his supporters to
the polls. His greatest strength lies in the southeastern
part of the country, the region least affected by leftist
insurgents trying to disrupt the election.
No candidate is likely to receive an outright major-
ity, and the government-controlled legislature will choose
the President later this month from the top two voteget-
ters. Guevara could be chosen even if he finishes second
in the general balloting, but such a departure from tra-
dition would further poison the tense political atmos-
phere.
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Military Attitudes
Public promises of clean elections from both the
government and the Army are designed to counter Guatemala's
dismal human rights image and to attract international
support. As Guevara has faltered, however, the high
command probably has considered guaranteeing him a
If Sandoval loses, he probably will charge the gov-
ernment with fraud and use his numerous paramilitary
forces to stage mass protests. Although his aim probably
would be to negotiate additional congressional seats for
his party rather than to provoke a showdown, the situa-
tion could get out of hand. If Sandoval's forces provoke
serious disturbances, the Army might declare a state of
siege--and possibly annul the election--in the interests
Outlook
No matter what the outcome, the election is unlikely
to ease Guatemala's international ostracism or promote
domestic backing for the new administration. At home and
abroad, a victory by Guevara will be widely assumed to
have been achieved through fraud. Although Sandoval is
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a civilian, his rightist policies would be seen in many
other countries as a continuation of the worst excesses
of the preceding military regimes.
The assumption of power by a freely elected Maldonado--
an unlikely outcome--would gain some international supp
for Guatemala, but the suspicions of the military and
Sandoval's supporters would hamper the new government's
ability to address the problems facing the country.
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