NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 1 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010003-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
CO NI/M, X I-ww
1 March 1982
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
Poland-USSR: Signs of Disagreement . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
South Africa: Botha Victorious Over Right Wing . . . . . . 3
Argentina-Chile: Beagle Channel Dispute . . . . . . . . . 4
USSR: Criticism of Brezhnev's Children . . . . . . . . . . 5
EC-USSR: Measures Against Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Zimbabwe: Nkomo Faces Trial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
USSR-Vietnam: Training MIG-23 Pilots . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Vietnam: Reappearance of Le Duan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
China-US: Cotton Purchases Halted . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Japan: Development of Robots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Special Analysis
USSR - Western Europe: Poland and the Peace Movement . . . 11
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
avN .JC..tCL.
POLAND-USSR: Signs of Disagreement
Party leader Jaruzelski begins his visit to Moscow today amid
signs of Soviet disagreement with his approach to some key issues.
The regime has eased some restrictions while Polish bishops called
for a complete lifting of martial Zaw.
The US Embassy in Moscow reports that Pravda deleted
a number of passages in Jaruzelski's speech last week to
the plenary meeting of the party's Central Committee, in-
cluding those dealing with "socialist renewal" and policy
on party leadership, "reconstruction" of an independent
trade union movement, Church-state relations, and the
inviolability of family farms. Meanwhile, a Soviet Cen-
tral Committee official has warned that "counterrevolu-
tion" remains active in Poland, implying that Warsaw must
continue to deal harshly with dissent.
Comment: In general, Soviet concern is probably
over Jaruzelski's future intentions rather than his
present policies because his interests for the time
being coincide in most respects with those of Moscow.
An immediate source of discord, however, could be on
party leadership policy, and the Soviets will push
Jaruzelski vigorously on this issue during his visit.
Moscow has indicated impatience with the delay in con-
solidating the party and probably had expected a more
extensive purge of "unreliable" members from the Central
Committee at its plenum last week.
In response, Jaruzelski will offer the toughly
worded communique of the Central Committee plenary ses-
sion as evidence of his readiness to pursue the proper
course. He also will argue for continued Soviet economic
assistance as a bulwark against domestic unrest.
Limited Easing of Martial Law
The general who heads the Interior Ministry announced
yesterday that Poles now may travel freely within the
country and promised a further easing of curbs this month.
At the same time, however, he affirmed that all the
enforcement mechanisms of martial law remain in PffPct
and would be directed at any resistance.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
Comment: Easing domestic travel will facilitate
family contacts and thereby alleviate one of the popu-
lation's main complaints. Also, Solidarity will have
a greater opportunity to reconstruct the union's internal
communications--a kev element in the effort to regain
its strength.
Polish Bishops' Appeal
The communique issued on Saturday, after the two-
day meeting of the bishops, strongly renewed their
earlier appeal for a speedy end to martial law, release
of internees, and resumption of a dialogue between the
authorities and society, specifically including Soli-
darity. The bishops warned that the martial law situa-
tion bore the hallmark of an impending "catastrophe,"
but nonetheless urged caution and a sense of "reality"
on the part of the people.
Comment: The communique represents the most de-
tailed Church pronouncement yet of its demands of the
regime and almost certainly contained a strong input
from the Pope. The bishops probably felt that they
should come down hard in support of including Solidarity
in any social dialogue, given the harsh attacks on the
union last week at the party's Central Committee plenary
session.
The appeal to the people to act "realistically re-
flects the bishops' view that any leverage the Church
has will be reduced if the regime feels constrained to
increase repression. The authorities probably allowed
the broadcast of the bishops' message in order to give
wider coverage to the part that included a plea for
caution.
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
nary actions are taken.
SOUTH AFRICA: Botha Victorious Over Right Wing
Prime Minister Botha defeated the rightwing rebellion Zed by
Andries Treurnicht, the head of the National Party's powerful
Transvaal Province wing, when a motion of confidence endorsing
Botha's Leadership carried overwhelmingly in the meeting of the
Transvaal Head Committee on Saturday.
Treurnicht and several of his supporters were sus-
pended temporarily from their positions in the Transvaal
party organization. All members of parliament who voted
against Botha must recant before his party's parliamentary
caucus meeting on Wednesday or be permanently removed
from their positions in the party apparatus. Botha still
hopes to avoid a split in the party and will attempt to
convert recalcitrant opponents before stronger discipli-
risk of alienating ultraconservative whites still further.
Comment: Botha's surprisingly easy victory leaves
him in solid control of the National Party and in a
stronger position to move ahead with plans to provide
for Colored and Indian representation in a single national
government. Botha knew that his endorsement of this
power-sharing arrangement--a position he had rejected as
recently as last October--would provoke a showdown with
his party's right wing. His decision to move beyond
party-approved plans for separate parliaments for Coloreds
and Indians reflects a greater effort to make reform
plans acceptable to Coloreds and Indians, even at the
follow him.
Treurnicht and fellow cabinet supporter Hartzenberg
almost certainly will be removed from the cabinet and
probably will leave the National Party and form a new
party. Treurnicht's decisive defeat in his own provincial
organization, however, indicates that few supporters will
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel Dispute
Recent Argentine violations of Chilean-claimed territory in
the disputed Beagle Channel are aimed at gainina divZomatic lever-
age in the Vatican's stalled mediation effort.
//Argentina's activities in the channel have become
increasingly provocative since January, when it renounced
the bilateral arbitration treaty with the Chileans. In-
cidents have occurred almost daily and included over-
flights, harassment of Chilean air patrols, and forays
into Chilean-claimed waters. Santiago has so far limited
its response to diplomatic protests and complaints to
the papal mediator.//
The militarily superior Argentines are trying to
force the Chileans and the papal mediator to modify their
legalistic approach to the long-stalled negotiations.
Before renewing joint meetings, Argentina wants Chile to
abandon demands that Buenos Aires accept the papal pro-
posals of 1980 that heavily favored Chile.
Comment: Buenos Aires may believe that increasingly
concerned Vatican officials are prepared to work toward
a compromise that will facilitate renewed talks. Argen-
tina apparently is willing to gamble on continued Chilean
restraint and may even believe that a major international
incident would serve its objective of moving the talks
into a new direction.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
USSR: Criticism of Brezhnev's Children
top circus official and a circus performer.
Galina has been questioned by the police in connection
with embezzlement charges brought against the country's
According to rumors in Moscow, Brezhnev's daughter
corruption campaign.
Rumors critical of President Brezhnev's relatives may be tied
to heightened leadership maneuvering following the death of Polit-
buro member Suslov as well as to the reverberations of the anti-
Foreign Trade but reportedly may be demoted instead.
was earlier said to be a successor to the Minister of
Stories are also circulating that Brezhnev's son
Yuriy has become involved in a corruption scandal. Yuriy
the KGB Tsvigun, who died in January.
It is rumored that Yuriy's involvement led to a
falling out between Brezhnev and first Deputy Chief of
thing of the past.
There have been indications of other leadership
differences over the anticorruption campaign. For ex-
ample, while Azerbaidzhan party head Aliyev has called
for greater efforts to curb abuses of power by "leading
party workers," Ukrainian party head Shcherbitskiy has
assured party leaders that purges of the party are a
supporters.
Comment: Although these rumors do not necessarily
indicate that Brezhnev is in political trouble, their
appearance whether true or not, suggests an effort to
embarrass him. Brezhnev's efforts to further the careers
of his son and son-in-law--both men were elevated to
Central Committee candidate-membership at the most recent
party congress--may have created the same sort of resent-
ment within the party that former party leader Khrushchev's
nepotism prompted 20 years ago. Brezhnev also may have
made a mistake in allowing proteges such as Chernenko to
promote an anticorruption campaign a dangerous tool that
can be used by Brezhnev's opponents as well as by his
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
EC-USSR: Measures Against Imports
//The EC Foreign Ministers' decision Zast week to limit imports
from the USSR, although ZittZe more than a symbolic action, still
faces obstacles.//
//National experts meet again today to try to revise
a proposal by the EC Commission to reduce by 50 percent
imports of 100 Soviet products, chiefly luxury items and
machinery. Under the Commission plan, the cut in imports
would amount to about $400 million a year, less than 4
percent of total EC imports from the USSR. The restric-
tion would not apply to goods that received import li-
censes before the Foreign Ministers' decision.//
//EC member states have been searching for ways to
placate the US at the least possible cost. The Foreign
Ministers, in their desire to make some gesture on the
sanctions issue, did not address the technical diffi-
culties involved in adopting a common policy.//
Comment: //The EC nations will have trouble agree-
ing on the specific products to restrict. In addition,
the members have yet to decide whether they can restrict
imports by a qualified majority vote. Greece remains
adamantly opposed to any economic measures directed
against the USSR. Even if Athens refrained from formally
issuing a veto, a common policy still could be blocked
by Denmark, which is maintaining a legal reservation be-
cause it feels the action requires unanimous approval.//
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
MIG-23.//
Prime Minister Mugabe yesterday announced that
Zimbabwe African People's Union leader Nkomo will be
tried for allegedly plotting civil war. Mugabe dis-
missed Nkomo and two of his followers from the cabinet
earlier this month after arms caches reportedly were
discovered on ZAPU-owned property. On Saturday ZAPU's
Central Committee decided to stay in the Mugabe-led
coalition government for the sake of unity despite Nkomo's
public assertions to the contrary.
Comment: The decision by the Central Committee
gave Mugabe the confidence to move against Nkomo. The
apparent rift in ZAPU and the tilt toward Mugabe strengthen
the Prime Minister's hand and put him in a better posi-
tion to move ahead with plans for a single-party state.
If Nkomo is tried, publicly, some violence along tribal
lines may erupt.
USSR-VIETNAM: Training MIG-23 Pilots
//Hanoi reportedly has sent 26 Vietnamese pilots to
the USSR for training on MIG-23 fighters.//
Comment: //The trainees probably have been selected
from among those pilots who have been flying the 220
operational MIG-21s in Vietnam. They would need only
about six months to familiarize themselves with the
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
VIETNAM: Reappearance of Le Duan
Vietnamese party leader Le Duan on Saturday appeared
in public for the first time in over two months to meet
with Soviet State Planning Chairman Baybakov in Hanoi.
Comment: Le Duan's reappearance probably assures
that the long-awaited Fifth Party Congress will convene
as scheduled on 27 March. If his recovery from his re-
ported illness is complete, Le Duan should be able to
guide his much-debated economic and party reforms--which
have Moscow's backing--through the congress.
CHINA-US: Cotton Purchases Halted
//Beijing is continuing its prohibition against new
orders for US cotton, following US restrictions last
October on imports of two categories of Chinese textiles.
China had purchased $1.2-billion worth of US cotton over
the last two years and wants to export more cloth to the
US.//
Comment: //Although Chinese trade officials overseas
have linked the suspension with displeasure over the
Taiwan arms issue, it appears more associated with trade
issues. Bumper crops at home and in nearly all cotton-
producing countries have made it easier for China to
shift purchases. China eventually will want to reenter
the US market because supplies elsewhere are not assured
and because the transfer of acreage from grain to cotton
will not be feasible indefinitely. If the impasse is
not resolved soon, however, other countries may increase
their production for the China market.//
25X1
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
JAPAN: Development of Robots
//Japan, already a major producer of industrial
robots, is embarking on a program to become the world
leader in the design and production of robots which can
detect and adjust to changes in the work environment.
The Ministry of International Trade and Industry, which
is sponsoring the program, predicts that by the end of
this decade production of "intelligent" robots will ac-
count for 25 percent of Japan's output of robots of
all types, compared with only 10 percent now.//
Comment: //The Japanese are taking aim at the one
area of robotics where the US and West Europeans enjoy
a slight lead. Research is focusing on the design of
robots that would employ sight and touch and possess
judgment and reasoning ability. This would make them
capable of more varied and sophisticated operations than
the current generation. The development of such robots
is a major key to increasing industrial productivity.//
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
USSR - WESTERN EUROPE: Poland and the "Peace" Movement
elements.//
//The crisis in Poland has added to Moscow's difficulties in
using the West European Communist parties to help maintain a high
level of "peace" agitation and to keep the movement focused on NATO
arms policies. Increased Soviet efforts to direct the themes of
the movement exclusively against the West are likely to alienate
some non-Communist peace activists and to aggravate internal divi-
sions in the Communist parties. Nevertheless, the peace movement
probably will revive this spring in West Germany, the Netherlands,
and other countries where it is based mainly on non-Communist
activists.//
//The peace movement, nevertheless, is largely in-
spired by indigenous West European concerns. The Soviets,
accommodating this, have urged West European Communist
parties to cooperate with non-Communists in opposing NATO
modernized INF deployment and other-Western nuclear
policies. Moscow has not abandoned this practical approach
despite its concern about criticism of its policies on
Poland and nuclear arms by some non-Communist peace
virtually constitute the movement by themselves.//
where peace activity has had less impact, the Communists
//The West European Communist parties, with Soviet
support, have been deeply involved in the peace movement.
In countries scheduled for deployment of intermediate-
range nuclear forces, where the movement has been most
active, the Communists have provided a valuable core of
reliable agitators. In Portugal and a few other countries
//The Soviets have been least effective when they
have insisted on dictating the timing, organization, and
themes of peace demonstrations. This has often backfired
and provoked non-Communists to reemphasize their criti-
cism of Soviet policy. Soviet pressure to avoid reference
to Poland has aggravated disagreements within the Commu-
nist parties themselves.//
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
West European Communist Problems
//The USSR sees West Germany as the most important
target of the peace campaign and has accorded the Commu-
nist parties there special attention. A Soviet party
delegation visited West Berlin Communists in January
increase the momentum of the peace movement there.//
//A demonstration in Geneva in January further under-
scored the difficulty the Soviets have in directing peace
activity even where local Communist parties are responsive.
//Some Communist parties have followed Soviet guidance
against their better judgment. The crisis in Poland,
for example, has created particular problems for the
small Dutch Communist Party and its relations with the
potent Dutch peace movement. Three-fourths of the Dutch
party's members reportedly are opposed to martial law
in Poland.//
//The Soviets recently insisted that the Dutch party
reverse itself and proceed with an "international peace
forum" that included Soviet and East German delegates.
The event will increase tensions within the party and
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
probably will cause groups more influential than the
Communists--such as the Interchurch Peace Council--to
avoid themes that plainly serve Soviet interests.//
//Peace demonstrations in Western Europe last fall
were beginning to assume some balance; there was more
criticism of Eastern as well as Western arms policies.
If the Soviets keep working to reverse this trend, local
Communists probably will lose additional credibility
with non-Communist peace activists and suffer greater
internal stresses.//
//The strains are unlikely, however, to prevent a
resurgence of the peace movement in countries such as
the Netherlands and West Germany. There, the INF issue
has drawn widespread attention and the movement is based
primarily on non-Communist political groups, church-
affiliated organizations, and ecological interest groups.
Friction between the Soviets and the West European
Communists and between Communists and non-Communists will
not deter most peace activists from their primary aim--
to persuade their own governments to reject INF deploy-
ments . //
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010003-2