NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 11 FEBRUARY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010135-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 28, 2008
• Sequence Number: 135
• Publication Date: February 11, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of 1 op Secret
7 b?,
Central
Intelligence
State Dept. review completed
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Too Secret
Special Analysis
(Jo USSR: Problems in Food Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
To Secret
11 February 1982
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Next 14 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
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Soviet Union
R. S. F. S. R.
.Chelyabinsk
Saudi ELL
Arabia Afghanistan
The United States 4iollrmmi has not recognized
aso
the incurpo .tion E alonis, talus, and t iihoania
into the Soviet Unionh . y repree.. tMion
is not necessarily aut tive.
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SPECIAL ANALYSIS
USSR: Problems in Food Supply
The food supply in the USSR is becoming tighter, putting
more pressure on the retail food network and on the special food
distribution system. Shortages seem most severe in the Russian
Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, which was narticuZarZy hard
Z~ Z.. ~7-- J---- I- I 9
Agricultural production in 1981 was 10 percent below
the record high of 1978. Despite unprecedented and costly
imports of grain and other foodstuffs--accounting for 25X1
growth in demand caused by steady wage increases.
some 40 percent or hard currency imports--supplies to
the consumer have failed to keep pace with the continue
Top Secret
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Agricultural Production (in millions of tons)
1978-79
1980-81
Meat
15.5
15.1
Milk
94
89.7
88.6
69.5
Vegetables
27.6
25.8
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Although supplies in Leningrad and Moscow are better
than in most areas, they are becoming worse in state
stores and in the collective farm markets. Food sup-
plies were augmented in Leningrad immediately after the
announcement of martial law in Poland and again on New
Year's Eve, but they were lower than normal by the end 25X1
of the first week in January. In Moscow, queues for
many items are growing longer.
Officials of the US Embassy who recently visited
Kalinin, a city of 500,000 inhabitants northwest of
Moscow, described the food situation there as "appalling."
Embassy travelers to major cities in the Lithuanian SSR 25X1
and the Ukrainian SSR also have reported extensive
1 111-- N/ A
The party leader in
the Georgian SSR recently referred publicly to the in- 25X1
troduction of rationing in cities and expressed concern
for the effect on rural residents who can no longer meet
their food needs by traveling to urban areas.
The leadership takes a serious view of the food
shortage. In addition to distributing food in factories
and urging informal rationing, the leadership has taken
several steps to manage the situation.
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Food imports are playing a large role in keeping
food supplies at a tolerable level. Meat imports since
1978 have increased by about six times to 900,000 tons
in 1981--the equivalent of 6 percent of production. Im-
ports of butter in 1980, the latest year for which data
are available, were 11 times higher than in 1978 and
equaled about 16 percent of production.
The government will continue to import substantial
amounts of agricultural commodities. It is resorting
to short-term financial arrangements to carry it over
potential cash flow problems.
Last fall, the government launched an anticorruption
campaign, which attempts to divert consumer criticism of
the state by blaming the shortages on hoarding, specula-
tion, and bribery. The leadership also is pointing to
increased defense needs in response to US military spend-
ing as a cause of domestic shortages. In addition, the
Soviet press is trying to shift resentment toward the
Poles by focusing on Polish economic problems and the
Over the short term, the supply of quality foods
probably will worsen. Increased supplies of meat will
occur only if there is substantial distress slaughtering.
Although the leadership places a high priority on main-
taining herds, the poor livestock feed supply in the
RSFSR probably will lead to some extra slaughtering
this winter. The resultin improvement in meat supplies
would be only temporary. 25X1
The supply of milk and other dairy items will not
improve before early summer. Shortages of potatoes and
other vegetables will persist until spring when vegeta-
bles from the southern republics begin to be available.
Reserves are low and imports cannot offset production
shortfalls.
Some incidents of food-related unrest are likely.
The government's technique of supplying emergency food,
however, should help prevent local flareups from spread-
ing or lasting long. The increasing stringency in food
supplies, however, may further damage the growth in labor
productivity.
11 February 1982
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Tnn Secret
Top Secret