NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 22 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010069-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 28, 2008
• Sequence Number: 69
• Publication Date: January 22, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
r
LI
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
22 January 1982
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
CO NID 82-018JX
22 January X82
COPY 249
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Top Secret
o ARGENTINA-CHILE: Treaty Repudiation
Argentina's denunciation yesterday of its settlement treaty
th h'
Z
w2. L. i
e was a bola effort to force Vatican mediation of the
foreign arms purchases by the two countries.
Argentina put the best diplomatic face on its de-
nunciation by coupling it with its pledge to negotiate a
new treaty with Chile, its reaffirmation of faith in the 25X1
Vatican mediation, and its call for a suspension of
Beagle Channel dispute toward a political compromise.
Buenos Aires' announcement is the latest step in the
drawn out talks that followed Vatican intervention in 1979
in the dispute. Ever since the Pope announced his 1980
proposals--which heavily favor Chilean claims in the im-
portant offshore region--Argentina has been caught in a
conundrum. It wants to avoid rejecting outright the
Vatican position and yet--because of hardline military
sentiment--judges itself unable to accept he proposals
Comment: Argentina's eventual denunciation of the
treaty was anticipated, but its timing puts unexpected
pressure on Vatican mediators, as Chile has been pressing
for final action. Whatever Chile's immediate reaction
to yesterday's announcement--and implicit warning--it is
likely Santiago ultimately will have to countenance
some political compromise of its strong legal case.
Otherwise, it will face protracted controversy--and
possible military conflict--with its dominant neighbor.
25X1
Argentina's call for a freeze on arms purchases is
especially self-serving. Chilean military acquisitions
since 1978 have narrowed Argentina's military advantage,
and a halt would enable Buenos Aires' superior domestic
weapons production capability to open a wider gap again.
22 January 1982
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Top Secret
,q. Poland: Pastoral Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
22 January 1982
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Poland's bishops on Sunday will read a statement calling
for an end to martial Zaw. Local authorities in Poznan are showin_p
3
greater concern about security.
A letter from Poland's bishops to be read in churches
on Sunday calls on the regime to rescind its repressive
(! martial law measures to avoid inciting violence or "even
7 civil war." The message emphatically repeats the Church's
/.call for the release of detainees, an end to the regime's
"verification" campaign, and the restoration of indepen-
dent trade unions and youth groups.
Comment: The pastoral letter, which apparently re-
sulted from Archbishop Glemp's meeting Tuesday with
senior bishops, gives broader dissemination to Glemp's
fears that the current impasse in 25X1
Poland cou cause serious social turmoil. The Church
leaders probably hope to impress upon Premier Jaruzeiski
the urgency of announcing significant concessions in his
policy address now scheduled for Monday. The bishops
may have hit the point, even harder in their personal
The US Consulate in Poznan reports signs of increasing
concern by the local authorities and speculates there may
j be a significant shift under way in the public mood. The
security forces are making more frequent checks of pedes-
trians' documents, are continuously manning roadblocks
V around the city, and are watching more intently the local
universities, which remain largely closed. The governor,
who had been away for a week, seemed uninformed of security
arrangements and claimed local interior ministry officials
Comment: The governor's apparent ignorance of the
security situation lends credence to other evidence that
security authorities are playing the key role in running
the country. If the mood in Poznan is turning sour, it
would be a significant development. 25X1
22 January 1982
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Poznan has been one of the quieter areas in Poland
since the imposition of martial law, even though it houses
several large universities and important industrial 25X1
that Poznan was under control it allowed Western journal-
ists to visit the city as part of their first guided tour
outside of Warsaw.
The EC Commission has decided to withdraw plans to
provide the martial law regime with an additional $260
million in subsidized food sales. Instead, the Commission
will increase aid to nongovernmental organizations which
it believes can better channel humanitarian aid directly
to the civilian population. 25X1
Comment: The Commission's decision probably re-
flects an assessment by the member states that continued
concessionary food sales would undermine the recent NATO
decision on food aid. Furthermore, EC countries may wish
to be seen as having taken responsible action before the
North Atlantic Council meeting tomorrow in order to de-
flect possible criticism. The decision also betrays
concern that the regime is manipulatin the distribution
of subsidized food for its own ends. 25X1
22 January 1982
--continued
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Soviet Union
Baltic Military District
Carpath
Military
District
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