ISLAMIC RESURGENCE IN ALGERIA

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CIA-RDP84S00927R000200050005-3
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RIPPUB
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S
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15
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December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 14, 2012
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5
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Publication Date: 
November 1, 1983
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Directorate of Secret Intelligence in Algeria Islamic Resurgence A Research Paper - t4 NESA 83-10316 November 1983 Copy 3 3 2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Directorate of Secret Intelligence Islamic Resurgence in Algeria 25X1 Office of Near Eastern and 25X1 South Asian Analysis. It was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. 25X1 Comments and queries ar directed to the Chief, Ara e welcome and may be b-Israeli Division, MESA, Secret NESA 83-10316 November 1983 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret Islamic Resurgence in Algeria 25X1 Key Judgments The rise of religious conservatism has caused the Algerian Government to Information available adjust its religious and social policies and is a problem for the regime, but as of 17 November 1983 we believe that Algeria's Islamic fundamentalists do not immediately was used in this report. threaten the government because they have no leaders who could organize and direct serious opposition. Furthermore, the fundamentalists are out of step with other opposition groups, which prevents them from uniting into a single regime-threatening force. We believe that the fundamentalist movement in Algeria stems primarily from the frustrations caused by rapid industrialization, the failure of socialism to solve economic problems, and the tensions created by compet- ing Arab and French influence throughout Algerian society. The current revival has also been fueled by a uniquely Algerian phenomenon of a large segment of society seeking to reduce state control of religious practices. Discontent caused by these currents has been given sharper focus by the revolution in Iran and fundamentalist activity elsewhere in the Middle East. In our estimation, militant fundamentalists have had difficulty infiltrating the military-the real backbone of the regime. They have their greatest appeal among Algerian youth and students in their late teens and early twenties, many of whom see the movement as an opportunity to articulate their nonreligious demands. As many as 5,000 of Algeria's 70,000 university students have been involved in fundamentalist-related activities, including clashes with police and antifundamentalist student. groups. Despite the trend in Algeria toward religious conservatism, most Algerians do not appear attracted to militant Islam. They have enjoyed the consum- erism accompanying French influence and are not attracted to the ascetic lifestyle advocated by the fundamentalists. Members of the regime do not appear to be particularly strict in their religious observance, but they are taking measures to ensure that their Islamic credentials-a cornerstone of their political legitimacy-are not seriously challenged. The regime has control of the national religious apparatus, which it uses to strengthen its image and to monitor religious expression in Algeria. Secret NESA 83-10316 November 1983 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret The Algerian Government will probably continue a hardline policy, resorting to force only when militants threaten public order. Earlier this year it departed drastically from its policy of tolerance by using harsh measures to dismantle what was perceived to be a budding fundamentalist threat. The regime has not had to adjust any of its major domestic economic development programs or foreign policy initiatives, nor is it likely to be seriously intimidated by militants. Efforts to improve relations with the United States are not likely to be af- fected by the regime's attempts to cope with fundamentalists. Moreover, Algerian officials would almost certainly provide rapid and complete protection to US interests in Algeria, should they become targets of Islamic zealotry Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84S00927R000200050005-3 Secret Islamic Resurgence in Algeria The Historical Setting In Algeria, as in many Muslim countries, Islam in its most traditional form is showing renewed vigor. the French colonial rulers generally took a hostile stance toward Islam in Alge- ria and restricted Islamic education, converted mosques into churches, and sought to replace the values and culture of Islam with those of France. Reaction to this approach resulted in part in the identification of orthodox Islam with the movement for an independent Algeria. During the war with the French (1954-62), adherence to Islam became a sym- bol of national pride and social cohesion as much as a personal affirmation of faith. The nationalist move- ment began with this impulse, and the restoration of Islam to its former place in society was an oft-stated goal of the revolution. We believe that since the war of independence, how- ever, the Algerian Government has sought to weave together the principles of Islam and the secular socialist state, with the latter taking a clear priority. political leaders have used Islam as a rallying point for national loyalties and a justification for modernization, while both Western-educated intellectuals and Islamic scholars have been encouraged to reconcile traditional Islamic values with the development of a modern society. In effect, the government has tried to co-opt the powerful influence of Islam to promote a fundamentally secular way of life, and the regime has taken almost total control of the country's religious institutions. Modernization is given prece- dence over tradition, and the formal mechanisms of religion-the ulema, religious books and pamphlets, most mosques, and mosque-based social associa- tions-have been turned into instruments of the state. Algeria's historic development and distance from the Arab heartland have allowed different Islamic prac- tices to evolve: ? Algerian Muslims, like most North Africans, ad- here to the Malaki school of Sunni Islamic law, one of four and the first of the schools of Islamic jurisprudence. Muslims from Egypt through Iran follow the Hanafi school, and most Saudi Arabians follow the puritanical variant of Sunni Islam known as Wahabbism. ? Many Algerians follow the teachings of Islamic mystics known as marabouts and erected shrines in their honor. Both practices are scorned by orthodox Muslims in the Arabian peninsula. ? Dietary prohibitions are not strictly followed, and alcoholic beverages are openly consumed. ? Algerian Sunnis also differ from the Shias who predominate in Iran because they tend to view the time of Muhammad as the ideal society. On the other hand, Shias, with their messianic tradition, tend to believe that the "Golden Age"' lies in the future and, in our opinion, are more likely than Sunnis to accept a prophetic leadership advocating revolutionary change. regime. A less controlled religious establishment al- most certainly would complicate, if not directly threaten, the government's pursuit of a modern, pro- gressive society. Algerian leaders, in our opinion, have felt compelled to exercise tight control because "restoration" of Islam remains a cornerstone of their political legiti- macy. Furthermore, questioning of their Islamic cre- dentials would be viewed as a direct challenge to the Despite government efforts to promote secularism in daily life, we believe the trend in Algerian society is toward greater interest in and practice of religion. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84S00927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret The US Embassy in Algiers reports that over the past several years attendance at mosques has increased, more women are wearing traditional Islamic dress, and observance of Muslim holidays has become more widespread. The construction of independent mosques by private citizens is also increasing rapidly. The current revival parallels the heightened piety throughout the Islamic world but also represents a uniquely Algerian phenomenon of a large segment of society wanting to move away from state control of religious practice. We believe that the rise of funda- mentalism over the past several years is part of a struggle between popular Islam, that is, a religion of the people, and official Islam, used by the state to justify and obtain consensus for secular policies. In our opinion, political strategy and religious tactics, government rhetoric and Muslim vocabulary-until now consistently intertwined in Algerian society-are becoming differentiated. Popular Islam is being used by fundamentalists to put pressure on official Islam. President Bendjedid tolerated the resurgence until Islamic fundamentalists began resorting to violence last year to attract popular attention. Early this year the President, ordered security officials to dismantle what he believed was a budding fundamentalist movement that perhaps had even permeated the state religious apparatus. According to Embassy reporting, the gov- ernment's crackdown resulted in the arrest of about 50 activists, members of the official religious estab- lishment, including the Minister of Religious Affairs, and Algeria's most venerable religious figure, 85- year-old Ahmed Shanoun. Seeds of a Revival Some 20 years after independence, Algerians general- ly appear to be tempering their enthusiasm for revolu- tion, socialism, and some of the Western values associated with them. As the nation matures, a small but vocal number of Algerians are seeking an indige- nous ideology to supersede the alien secular socialism that has failed to deliver its promises. In our opinion, the tenets of traditional Islam are, in the eyes of many Algerians, a more enduring, direct connection with their own cultural heritage and with the rest of the Arab and Muslim world and a more appealing guide for living than the socialist ideology that has dominat- In tandem with this search for a more relevant, promising ideology, scholars believe that specific pres- sures resulting from modernization have spawned a militant piety among a growing number of Algerians who advocate a radical change in social and political life. In our view, this more militant fundamentalism has been nurtured by a dichotomy between the rapid industrialization program pushed by the government and by the policy of Arabization, which has sharply focused the extent to which Algeria remains a society dominated by the French language and French mores and values. The Islamic revival, following the pattern of other religious resurgences, feeds on these stresses with which normal routines-secular or sacred- cannot cope. It is fueled by popular interest in the religious aspects of Iran's revolution and by the presence in Algeria of Egyptian teachers with a fundamentalist bent. Industrialization. We believe that rapid industrial- ization, which was proposed as the only economic course that could lead to economic independence, has pressed the country into a Western secular mold but has failed to deliver promised economic and social benefits. The development of heavy industry-steel- works, foundries, chemical factories, and refineries- is bringing about the transformation of Algeria from a traditional society to a Western-oriented technologi- cal state. Scholarly journals and government statistics show, however, that the drive for industrialization has led to maldistribution of investment between industry and other sectors, shortages of consumer goods, and inflation problems. Moreover, the level of technology insisted upon has often been beyond the capability of the local labor force, fostering dependence on foreign technicians and reliance on Europe as an outlet for 1 million Algerian workers-about one-third of the active male population-who cannot find jobs at home. Embassy reporting suggests that industrialization and its concomitant Westernized lifestyle have caused tension between the emerging working class and the traditional bazaar workers. As a result of rising wages and shorter working hours, the Westernized industrial ed society since. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret sector has more leisure time and higher consumption than the bazaar sector. The reporting also shows that, as more women are working and more girls are going to school, the new working class is beginning to question traditional male and female roles in society. To the conservative Algerian bazaar merchants, the new industrial lifestyle looks unacceptably progressive and dangerous. the bazaaris see the technocrats, politicians, and industri- al workers as all adhering to the sane secular West- ern views about culture, leisure, consumerism, and money. The bazaar class is more comfortable with an austere lifestyle where males and females are segre- gated, industry is small scale, and there is a clear separation between work and leisure-patterns they consider sanctioned by tradition and the Quran. Arabization. The policy of Arabization, which the Government of Algeria has endorsed since 1975 to build a national, anticolonial identity, has tended, in our view, to deepen the fissure between the Western- ized industrial and the traditional rural and bazaar sectors of society. Arabization is exposing Algerian students to their Arabic heritage, which makes the students even more aware of the gulf between Islamic traditions and the secular nature of contemporary Algeria. The use of Arabic in university instruction is largely confined to the humanities and social sciences, whereas French is the language of instruction for science and engineering. As a result, Arabic-educated students find fewer and less lucrative job opportuni- ties than those trained in French. Islamic Fundamentalists Conservative religious elements regularly have pressed the government for the imposition of stricter Islamic observance, entering the political arena. their most reknowned association, al-Qiyam, was banned in 1968 in part because the regime- choosing to focus on Islamic education, economic development, and agrarian reform-believed that al- Qiyam had gone too far in its attempt to seize the role of guardian of pure Islam and government ethics from the regime in power. Islamic fundamentalists remained relatively quiet un- til 1975, when they joined the nationwide public debate of the National Charter, the drafting of which was the first step in the preparation of a new constitu- tion that was promulgated in 1976. Arabization and adherence to Islam became central principles of the 25X1 charter, and since then the fundamentalists have openly pressed for Arabization and demanded that 25X1 the state maintain Islamic values. By invoking the National Charter and the Constitution,0 25X1 the fundamentalists have felt justified 25X1 in criticizing the government on other issues that they claim have religious implications, such as the Family Code and laws governing personal status. Although specific fundamentalist groups like al- Qiyam and the Muslim Brotherhood have been out- lawed by the government, we believe that these groups 25X1 have successfully infiltrated Algerian society over the years. the Muslim 25X1 Brotherhood penetrated Algerian society during the early 1960s with the help of the Egyptian Govern- ment, Muslim Brotherhood chapters elsewhere, and private citizens. Al-Qiyam identified itself with the Brotherhood and became firmly established at the University of Algiers. it 25X1 continues to operate clandestinely under the name al- Dawah and receives financial and political support from a sister organization in Saudi Arabia. Offshoots of this group, including the Front Islamique, the Mouvement Islamique en Algerie, and the Takfir wa al-Hijrah, have periodically been identified by the Algerian Government. We do not know, however, if these are separate movements or merely factions of al- 25X1 Dawah. 25X1 Algerian authorities are concerned most with Libyan aid, 25X1 25X1 `25X1 They believe-with only marginal evidence- 20A] that support from Libya is part of Qadhafi's effort to 25X1 destabilize the region. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret the government is particularly wary that Qadhafi may be encouraging fundamentalist activities through for- mer Algerian President Ahmed Ben Bella, who main- tains close ties with Libya. We believe that the militant movement has its broad- est appeal among Algerian students and urban youth in their late teens or early twenties. The movement provides them a context within which their demands for control of university life and employment pros- pects can be expressed. Embassy and press reporting indicates that as many as 5,000 students have been involved in fundamentalist-related demonstrations at the University of Algiers and its branch campus, which has a student population of about 70,000. Students from lower middle- and working-class back- grounds-who do not have access to the French education necessary to compete for the best jobs-in particular probably believe that a more Arab Muslim society would offer them better employment opportu- nities and would reduce competition with their French-educated counterparts. By all accounts, the fundamentalist movement in Algeria is not so pervasive as that found in Tunisia and Egypt, for example. Even in the university, where its numbers are greatest, it appears to be fluid and poorly organized-its sympathizers uniting for a spe- cific purpose and disbanding quickly thereafter. Ac- cording to Embassy reporting, religious activists are subject to intense police scrutiny and surveillance. Despite government efforts to control violence be- tween militants and authorities, clashes have been on the rise since 1979. Demonstrations mostly on univer- sity campuses around Algiers that have resulted in arrests and several killings of both students and police have been reported in the press. These incidents have generally stemmed from student resistance to funda- mentalist activities on campus rather than from vio- lence against the regime. The most serious demonstra- tions in May 1981 and December 1982 convinced the regime that Algeria faced the same potential prob- lems regarding Islamic extremists as other Arab countries. According to Embassy reporting, many university students and faculty have been angered by fundamen- talist harassment and activities that they believe attract harsh security measures that interfere with their daily routine and limit normal access to the university mosque. For example, in November 1982 the press reported that fundamentalists at the Ben Aknoun campus in Algiers confronted an opposition group that had gathered to counter fundamentalist efforts to control elections for student representation on a university committee. One student died and 10 were injured after security forces arrived on the scene. Several days later students and faculty boycotted classes in protest against the death of the student and the general lack of security against fundamentalists. In our estimation, the military-the real backbone of the regime-has not been seriously penetrated by fundamentalists. According to the US defense attache in Algiers, officers are screened rigorously to the point that even fundamentalist leanings among family members are grounds to relegate an officer to reserve commission status. Army officers are probably the most privileged sector of Algerian society, and, in our view, they would be unsympathetic toward a move- ment that threatened their status. Among advocates of a return to stricter adherence to religious values are those with conservative religious views who primarily seek a restoration of Islam in daily life and militant fundamentalists who call for a radical change in the social and political structure of the country. Although both groups want many of the same changes, such as the prohibition of alcohol and the right to pray during work hours, their goals and their approach to effecting change differ-conserva- tives seek personal piety and the militants want structural changes in society. We believe that conserv- ative activists prefer. working with the government- controlled religious apparatus and are appeased by the accommodations they have extracted from the government, whereas the militant fundamentalists are willing to take a belligerent course. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret President BendJedid and high- level party members attend the Friday prayer at the Grand Material published by the militant fundamentalists shows that they have no unique doctrine but advocate a variety of ideas: ? An Islamic society akin to the Libyan model. ? The meshing of Islam and socialism, citing Iran as an example. ? The formation of an Islamic government. ? The purification of society by eliminating coeduca- tion in primary schools and instructing girls 12 or older separately. ? Prohibiting alcoholic beverages. ? Total rejection of Western values. State Monopoly of Religious Institutions In our view, the current regime, including Bendjedid, is not inclined to change its basically secular outlook, and few of its leaders strictly follow Islamic practices themselves. US officials who deal regularly with high- level Algerian officials report that alcohol is readily available at official functions and at officers' clubs, and many Algerians still look to Europe, especially Paris, for the latest trends. In general, most officials prefer to speak French even among themselves, par- ticularly when discussing professional matters. When Bendjedid first became President, he had difficulty giving a speech in Arabic but through study now appears comfortable in both languages. In looking for Some members of the cabinet have good Islamic credentials, according to Embassy reports, and we believe they may advocate a more religious stance during policy discussions. For example, the Minister of Religious Affairs has traditionally been chosen because of his close ties with the Islamic and political establishments: ? Earlier this year Minister of Religious Affairs Abderrahmane Chibane was temporarily detained as part of the government's crackdown on funda- mentalists. We suspect that his close identification with certain conservative religious issues and his apparent hesitation in dealing forcefully with ex- tremists made Bendjedid question his loyalty. ? Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed. Taleb Ibrahimi, whose stepfather was a religious leader, retains strong ties to the Islamic religious community. He does not appear to have a fundamentalist orientation. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret little detailed information. According to the Constitution and decrees promulgat- ed in 1980, the Ministry of Religious Affairs is responsible for the administration of religious institu- tions, the extension of Quranic education, the develop- ment of Islamic studies, and the explanation and dissemination of "socialist principles embedded in social justice-one of the essential elements of Islam." In addition, the Ministry is responsible for supervising the education of the mosques' personnel. Algerian Government data suggest that there are about 5,000 public mosques with an equal number of people in charge and a few private mosques for which there is in Algeria is the Islamic Superior Council, The most politically important religious organization Presided over by the Minister of ? Minister of Justice Boualem Baki maintains con- tacts with Islamic traditionalists. ? Minister of Culture Abdelmajid Meziane, a respect- ed scholar and former head of the University of Algiers, was educated at the Institute of Higher Islamic Studies in Rabat. On balance, however, we believe that these cabinet members would not publicly challenge Bendjedid's policies or vigorously lobby for more conservative religious practices. Except for some private mosques, the entire religious apparatus has been in the hands of the state since independence; most imams and leaders of the reli- gious organizations and schools are appointed by the government. Each regime since independence has used the apparatus to strengthen its Islamic creden- tials and control religious expression. The state reli- gious establishment, in our view, has tended to sup- port the regime's policies over the years. jedid's policies. Religious Affairs, this government-appointed body is charged with the official interpretation of Islamic doctrine. Its political strength is derived from the government's need to interpret Islam to justify Bend- The state uses various instruments to disseminate official guidelines on doctrinal matters involving reli- gion. In addition to the 715 Islamic social groups (Jam'iyya Islamiyya) under the aegis of the Ministry of Religious Affairs, the most effective forums are the Seminars on Islamic Thought and certain government-controlled periodi- cals. The government uses the Seminar on Islamic Thought, an annual gathering of theologians, philoso- phers, and politicians, to promote its own interpreta- tion of Islam. AI-Asala and AI-Risala (mainly for children)--the only Islamic reviews permitted in Al- geria-spread the official view regarding theology and law, particularly as they relate to current prob- lems and events. The Ministries of Culture, Informa- tion, Justice, and Higher Education and Scientific Research are also involved in formulating and dissem- inating the government's line on Islam through radio programing, television, book publications, films, and cultural events. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret A mosque near Ghardaia in the M'zab region of the northern central Sahara. One of the smallest Berber population cen- ters, the M'zab is known for the Kharidiite refugees, a small, reclusive Islamic sect, who in the 10th century fled the Shiism imposed by the Fatimid dynasty to establish a theocrat- ic kingdom. The absence of structural or ornamental en- hancements of the mosques is a reflection of M'zabite society Government Reaction Embass sources indicate that the Algerian Government takes seriously the need to respond to some demands of religious conservatives. The state has tried to demonstrate its orthodoxy and has given proof of its respect for Muslim tradition in a number of ways. The official day of rest was changed to Friday in 1976 to correspond with tradition. The Family Code is under review again to comply more with demands from conservative activists and the militant fundamentalists. Bendjedid's recent anticor- ruption campaign, although largely designed to check his rivals, has been packaged to apply Quranic princi- ples to government personnel. The government also recently declared its intention to strengthen religious education by promising to open about 160 Quranic schools by 1986. the government be- lieves that the poor quality of state imams (prayer leaders) is a major factor in the spread of private Islam and the diminution of its control over religious ideas. Government officials publicly admitted in Jan- uary 1981 that three-fifths of the state imams were not qualified to comment on the Quran and Sunna (deeds and statements of the Prophet). As a remedy the government is making various attempts to up- grade the education of its imams in the hope they will regain control of religion. For example, a central postgraduate institute and new Islamic institutes for each province have been created. Thus, students will no longer have to go abroad to get a diploma, nor will they be so easily exposed to "reform" ideas. Bendjedid is taking other measures to diffuse the potential appeal of fundamentalism by: ? Deemphasizing the contributions of former Presi- dent Boumediene and elevating revolutionary heroes whose religious credentials are more acceptable to the fundamentalists. ? Constructing new state mosques. ? Stressing publicly the attention to Islam given by his own administration. Furthermore, a campaign is under way to generate support among the intellectual elite for the govern- ment's orthodoxy and method for dealing with Islamic extremists. Arabic-speaking intellectuals who have generally taken a backseat to their French-speaking 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84S00927R000200050005-3 secret counterparts are being promoted as Algeria's new cultural leadership. Hoping to appear more open- minded, the Bendjedid regime has permitted well-known Islamic theorists and schol- ars to publish books that deviate slightly from the further diminish their position in society. The funda- mentalist movement's threat to the regime is further reduced by an effective security network that closely monitors the militants. 25X1 25X1 Another tactic of the regime has been to be surpris- ingly open in promoting its policy toward fundamen- talists and extremists, particularly regarding the use of force. Government leaders have repeatedly warned that Islamic extremists should not mistake patience and tolerance for weakness, implying that the regime will use whatever means necessary to deal with funda- mentalist activity. The state-controlled newspaper, EI-Moudjahid, has given widespread and generally accurate coverage of the violent demonstrations and the subsequent arrests that took place late last year. We believe the government probably hopes that, by making a public example of those involved in religious activities against the regime, they will discredit the extremists and discourage the appeal of fundamental- Since the crackdown last year, we have not seen any fundamentalist-related disturbances. In our view, Bendjedid's hardline policy has diffused the move- ment at least on the surface and for the short term. We believe that, as in other Arab countries, the underlying causes of fundamentalism in Algeria have not been sufficiently resolved by the regime to have eradicated the problem. Outlook Although Islamic fundamentalists will probably gain appeal among Algeria's students and urban youth- who have identified more closely with fundamentalist demands in the past-we believe that they are not a serious threat to the regime at this time. The funda- mentalist movement suffers from a lack of leadership, without which it has no clear strategy for political action. Furthermore, the fundamentalists appear to be at odds with Algeria's other opposition groups. They are the ideological archenemy of the clandestine Communist Party, and they are perceived by the Berbers-already politically and socially alienated from the Arab majority-as a movement that would In our view, the lack of sympathy with fundamentalist ideals by a majority of Algerians is the greatest deterrent to the spread of the movement. We believe Algerians, in general, are more attracted by consum- erism than by the ascetic lifestyle espoused by the fundamentalists. Moreover, most Algerians support Bendjedid's regime and are confident of its ability to govern Algeria. Algerians may gravitate toward more conservative religious practices, but this seems to be more a reflection of personal preference than a desire to seriously alter the country's political and social order. In our opinion, however, as long as the Bendjedid government remains unresponsive to the root causes of social tensions-and most specifically the disloca- tions resulting from the industrialization and Arabi- zation programs-there will be criticism and occa- sional violence by Islamic extremists. Implications for the United States We believe that the surge of Muslim activism in Algeria will not interfere with the current trend toward improved US-Algerian relations.' The issue of Islamic fundamentalism, in our opinion, has not reached the level-of heated national debate and certainly has not become a factor in shaping Algeria's foreign policy. The government has felt secure enough in its policy toward fundamentalism to take on such major changes in foreign policy as improving ties with the United States. Algeria's efforts as a broker be- tween the United States and Iran to end the hostage crisis indicate, in our analysis, that the government feels confident about its own Islamic credentials. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84S00927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret Washington, however, will be dealing with a govern- ment that wishes for a variety of reasons-including its concern over Islamic resurgence-not to appear to be a client or supplicant of the West or a superpower. Although the recent visit by the US Vice President to Algeria was given high visibility, Algiers will contin- ue, as it did during the visit, to characterize its broadening relationship with the United States as an outgrowth of its responsibilities as a leader of the nonaligned movement. Events like the Iranian revolution and Sadat's assassi- nation at the hands of fundamentalists no doubt have brought home to the Algerian Government the dan- gers of unchecked, rampant Islamic activism. As a result, we expect the Algerians to be more sympathet- ic to moderate Arab concerns and to pursue policies compatible with US concerns regarding the spread of fundamentalism throughout the Muslim world. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3 Secret Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP84SO0927R000200050005-3